MeleMouth

Fun exercise. You may have too many on the 40-man. Do you want to wish happy trails to anyone else? Without going too deep into your proposal, one I would call out is Wallner: unless a player is a total masher or still developing, the Twins need to be done with poor defenders with bad contact rates. There is no future in Wallner and the present is pretty poor, also.

Two more comparisons for Royce Lewis. Tl;dr: as a hitter, he's less like Joey Votto and more like a lesser version of Junior Caminero. In 2012, Joey Votto had a .404 BABIP and 30.2% LD rate in a 5.3 WAR season. He also had only 14 HRs to go along with 44 2Bs, for a good 58 XBHs (although only 56 RBIs, if that's your bag). He again exceeded a 30% LD rate in 2018, at 31.4%, but with just a .333 BABIP, during a 3.1 WAR season, perhaps because he lost a lot of power, with only 12 HRs and 42 XBHs total (and again with only 67 RBIs). Votto was totally geared for line drives, but he didn't hit the ball hard, usually having hard hit rate in the 30-39.9% range. Votto was also one of the greatest hitters of the decade and he used all three fields, whereas Royce Lewis is an extreme pull hitter and swings much more like Junior Caminero, but with lower levels of bat speed, hard contact, and squared up contact. Caminero typically is around 15% for LD% and sub-.300 for BABIP. Lewis will probably settle in as a pretty good hitter, but not great, and to expect him to have Votto's career-high BABIP and LD% while also maintaining anything like Caminero's power, while swinging more like Caminero, is extremely unlikely to occur.

It would also have been consistent with some kind of long range plan. "We've got a logjam of left-handed platoon outfielders and some great left-handed outfield prospects coming up, this isn't really our year, Larnach's going to be a short-timer so let's trade him while he is at his peak in value" is a much more coherent long-term plan than "we have a chance to back into the playoffs right now and Larnach is at his peak, so let's keep riding his bat as long as he can and then just non-tender him if we need to this winter, even though we can probably replace right now most of what he brings to the table."

You can have the best locker room atmosphere possible, but it may not matter much if a player is stuck in his own head for whatever reason - injury, family issue, on-field struggles, or learning that the team tried to trade him.

His line drive rate in August is 26.8%, the highest of his career. That stat just reinforces the idea that he is on a hot streak that is unlikely to continue. It's an outlier from history - not just Royce's, but every major league hitter's. Only three hitters in the last 6 years were around a 29% LD rate: 2023 Arraez, 2021 Adam Frazier, and 2020 Freeman. It's rare. Rod Carew had a .400 BABIP only twice in his career, and once was in an injury-shortened year. Here are hitters who never had a .400 BABIP: Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Willie Mays, Aaron Judge, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Luis Arraez, Rickey Henderson, George Brett, Willie Wilson, Paul Molitor, Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Mookie Betts. Lewis is nowhere near the quality of hitter that these players are or were. As I write, his August BABIP has already come down to .375; you can't project that he'll keep a .400 BABIP when he already hasn't. Lewis also has one of the highest launch angles in the league, meaning that he is generally a flyball hitter, such as when he hit five home runs in June with an 18.2% LD rate. If you think a 29% LD rate and .400 BABIP is "not that lucky" or that Lewis has something that will enable him to maintain rates that no notable hitter ever did, we'll just have to agree that we look differently at history and Royce's place within it. You may consider the last few games as a rough patch, but I look at it as normal regression and perhaps as the league realizing that they needed to pitch to him differently. Lewis was just below replacement level in July and had a hot streak in the first half of August. It would be a mistake to consider his hot streak a permanent, projectable level for Royce.

"What happens to a hitter when they lose their conviction? What becomes of the extreme beats when they're tamed by their own self-doubt? You've heard that answer a hundred times, over the years: guys get caught 'in-between'." Being caught 'in-between' summarizes strategic planning for the entire team in a nutshell. "We're doing a fire sale! We're keeping our veterans! We're rebuilding and competing - at the same time! We're going big in free agency! We have to get rid of the expensive, disappointing free agents we signed! We're developing pitching! We're trading for pitching! We don't want to sign pitchers to expensive long-term contracts! This pitcher is a good member of the team, so we're going to sign him to an expensive long-term contract! We're collecting assets for the future! We're selling future assets for today! We were building for the future two weeks ago, but we're pivoting because it's a down year and mediocre teams have a 25% chance of backing into the playoffs!" None of these strategies by themselves are wrong, but if you mix too many strategies, particularly close in time, and also if you poorly execute several of them, you end up repeating 75-85 forever, with occasional bottomings and short periods of contention in the weakest division in baseball.

I was curious so looked it up. Larnach had three games with 2 HRs in his MiLB career.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Thinking about this distribution of players: Toronto: Varland, Dasan Hill, Klein Minnesota: Hoffman (with much bigger contract), Roden, Rojas The Twins sold low on Varland and bought high on Hoffman. Anything you can say about Rojas you can also say about Hill, except that he is about two years behind. In that time, Varland is probably going to lap Hoffman while making much less money. I guess if you value Roden, who looks like a back-up part-time corner outfielder, you can add that to the Twins side of the ledger, but it's hard to see much value there, and probably not much more than what Klein provides as an up and down reliever.

Yeah, that struck me as well. These two sentences seem to contradict each other, as well as 2/3 being based on pie in the sky. I mean, sure, if you have Buxton, Lewis, and Ryan, and you go out and get "legitimate stars" like Skubal as a free agent and Nick Kurtz in a trade, they could be a good team, but they could also be a good team without Buxton, Lewis, and Ryan, if they sign Skubal and trade for Kurtz. Or, of course, they could keep their aging core of 1-3.5 WAR "stars" and go out and get "legitimate stars like Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa while also featuring "emerging young players" like Miranda, Julien, and Wallner. "A roster built around Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, emerging young players and a legitimate collection of stars could do that. A team that spends a significant portion of every summer fighting to stay around .500 will have a much harder time doing it. " The Twins need to pick one strategy and stay with it. As long as they keep vacillating, perhaps more than once a year, and sometimes running out two strategies at once like "competitive rebuild," which sounds really good but has never worked for them, they will "spend a significant portion of every summer fighting to stay around .500."

Absolutely, and this was of critical value at the time, but replacing an obsolete system does not mean the new system is excellent. Bill James used to say that baseball management usually gets hired for good reasons and gets fired for good reasons. In 2016, what Falvey brought to the team was necessary and beneficial, but by 2026 his way of doing things was no longer providing an advantage.

I agree and I don't. It would have been great to get more for Berrios and a team like the Twins needs to maximize those opportunities. OTOH, if you look at other deadline trades of pitchers similar to Berrios, the usual outcome isn't much different. My largest quibble about the deal is that they might have been better off trading for one player who was closer to a sure thing, instead of two players whose prospect status was already declining. But the Twins of that era seemed to have been operating under the belief that they could take raw hitters like Martin and teach them how to hit with more power, so they might have thought they got a steal in getting Martin.

That home run by Tinney didn't even look particularly well-hit, as he appeared to be a little under it, but he has such power that it was a gigantic home run for that stadium. Jenkins and Rodriguez had good days, but IMO it's hard to read too much into a 15-11 game.

I looked at this a few months back and found that, at that time, the Twins were in the top 10 in terms of fWAR from draft picks during the Falvey era. Jeffers was #1. Unfortunately, #2 and #3 were Steer and Rooker, who produced all of their WAR for other teams. I have to give them credit for converting Petty into Gray, also, although I wonder if Petty's career would have gone better had he gone to an organization other than the Reds, in which case that trade wouldn't appear to be quite as lopsided a success. Also unfortunately, the Twins generated almost no WAR from international signings made during the Falvey era. The #1 selling point for hiring Falvey was the patented "Falvey Pitching Pipeline," which was assumedly his unique skill in identifying raw talent and molding it into good cost-controlled major league pitchers, so that the team could spend money in other areas and not be locked into expensive, long-term contracts with pitchers at constant risk of major injuries that could cost them more than a season and put a big percentage of the team's payroll onto the IL. However, the FPP seemed to develop a big leak around the AA portion of the funnel, e.g., Balazovic, Winder, Enlow, Festa, Culpepper, Zebby(?), in contrast to Cleveland, which year after year seems to still produce good starters for the major league team, such as Messick (taken 6 picks after Prielipp) and Williams this year, two drafted and developed starters who are better than any of the Twins' starters. Also, as somewhat of a kick, Cleveland's excellent closer, Cade Smith, who took over almost without a hitch after they lost their all-world closer, Clase, was drafted by the Twins in the 16h round of Falvey's first draft, but did not sign. IMO: Falvey was overall good at identifying talent, but poor to mediocre at developing talent, among other things.

Unstated is that the White Sox and Guardians will face a similarly weak strength of schedule. Note also that the Rangers, who the Twins play at the end of the season, are classified as a "losing" team in the strength of schedule table, but as well as also competing for the wild card, they recently got Corey Seager back after he was injured for most the prior two months and he is heating up.

One game is definitely not a trend, but tonight's loss to the Padres did not change my mind that the keys to success for the rest of the season will be (1) the bullpen, (2) hitting by Jeffers, Larnach, Clemens, Keaschall, and Bell, and (3) a starter being adequate or better; and that success should not depend much on either getting something from Buxton or seeing Lewis continue his recent hot streak. Unfortunately, although the hitting was fine and the starter was quite good (and neither Buxton nor Lewis did anything of value), tonight the bullpen failed to lock it down.

Lewis was very good in June, mediocre in July, and is even better so far in August. You are absolutely correct that continued good fortune for Royce Lewis would definitely help the Twins succeed. It would be great if it does, but relying on his success to continue is a riskier factor for success than the others I described. Here are reasons to be cautious. First, you can't just look at results and project them out. With Lewis there are underlying indicators that we shouldn't expect a continuation of his hot streak. Among other things, he's getting the vast majority of his results from inside pitches, and, in August, unsustainable luck on balls in play, well exceeding anything Rod Carew ever did over a season, so regression here is about as sure a bet as you can get. Even with this good fortune, however, his isolated power, even in his en fuego August, would be only about 40th percentile among qualified hitters if he could do that all year. Contrast it to his ISO during his golden days of August/September 2023, which was more than .100 higher, with much more normal luck on balls hit into play not turning into outs. August 2026 Lewis is achieving results with a lot more luck and lot less power. If his all-time high luck on balls hit into play regresses, his ISO will sink lower. Also, unless he can do better with outside pitches, his success will continue only as long as the league doesn't change how it pitches him. Even in his good August, his rate of chasing well exceeds league average, while his rate of contact when chasing is well below league average. If I know this, it's probable that the whole league knows it and will adjust. Further, Royce has been a source of disappointment several times over the last few years, so unless you can point to something in him that has positively and permanently changed, a downturn would be reasonable to expect. Finally, if a downturn does occur, I'm not sold that someone who tends to respond to challenges by reminding himself how awesome he is and saying things like "I don't do slumps" has what it takes to promptly face up to his problems and make adjustments.

The top two factors can't be health and good performance by two guys who haven't been healthy or performing well, and the third top factor can't be continued good performance by an odd dude who's just starting to hit well. You have to assume the first two guys will continue to be spotty and the third dude, who's getting away with poor plate coverage, will see his performance return back closer to what it has been. Here are suggested alternate factors - just to make the playoffs. 1. Lock-down bullpen. The team's biggest work this year has been to improve the bullpen. If this team is going to sneak into the playoffs, it's because they were able to get out to a lead in enough games and the bullpen locks the door. 2. Good hitting by Jeffers, Larnach, Clemens, Keaschall, and Bell. Jeffers, Larnach and Clemens are going through rough patches, but you can find positives in their data. If they can resume hitting how they were through mid-July, that would help a lot. Similarly, if Keaschall can maintain his new gear or even something a little below, and Bell could be similar, that could provide additional runs. 3. Three or four starters to be adequate or better. The Twins' opponents from here out have a below .500 strength of schedule. The Twins don't need the Dodgers rotation to beat them. A decent staff should give them a good chance. Who it's going to be is the challenge. Bradley looks pretty good, but Ober, Prielipp, and Matthews all look like #5 starters at best right now. Kremer has put up good results since the trade, but underlying data is a little scarier. Here's where Ryan's return could help, because even if he doesn't return to his All-Star level, mere adequacy could do the trick. 4. Of course, any gains from Buxton and something from Lewis approaching his current streak would help, but a plan based on health for Buxton and continuing a hot streak by Lewis is really a plan based on hope instead of strategy.

Important points. Bell has been a decent addition and the team has outperformed, but no, this team is not going to the World Series (all predictions guaranteed or your money back), and in pursuit of seeking to squeak into a wild card series or win a weak division with a sub-.500 record they lost opportunities to strengthen future teams that could have better chances to go to the World Series.

Since German Marquez and Chris Vallimont are starting their games tonight, we are safe to expect that Nelson Cruz and the rest of the Bomba Squad will rake in theirs and Taylor Rogers will come in to close it out.

As noted by the OP, Bell is one of the main additions to the team this year, to which I would add it is a team that is outperforming expectations and has a better tone than last year's team, even before the fire sale. I'm glad you agree that Bell is a quality person or at least a good teammate (we have almost no idea what he does in his private life). When something like a team's tone is better, the team is performing better, and a new member of the team is a good and supportive teammate, it can't be proven that his conduct made the difference, but circumstantial and observational evidence suggests that he may be making a positive effect. My own career and athletic experience gave me many examples. I'm not aware of any math connecting culture or quality of a person or even a locker room to success. I also, however, would not mock the concept, unless "chemistry" or culture is used to explain a series of decisions that are otherwise suboptimal, nor do I feel qualified to make rules for others of what "there needs to be" regarding their opinions, with the possible exception that opinions should not be based on clear factual errors. Following your logic, a team would never change its manager because it wanted a new tone in the dugout, because they wouldn't be able to prove it makes any difference. Nor would it ever seek someone to provide veteran leadership, such as Andy MacPhail did when he traded for Don Baylor and Terry Ryan said he was doing when he brought back Torii Hunter. You're right that fans don't know as much as MacPhail or Ryan about the locker room or players, but fans have a right to their opinions on the issue.

Glad you'll defer. Deferring to other posters instead of making personal attacks is a nice way to behave.

I like Josh Bell and think the article missed another of his contributions this year, because he has been an outstanding locker room guy, kind of a 1B to Shelton's 1A in terms of supporting the other players. However, we need to be careful not to overstate his hitting value. He currently has a 110 wRC+. Among 137 qualified hitters, this places him in a tie for 68th, which is the median among qualified hitters. Now, that isn't bad, but it's not incredible, either. The potential good news is that Bell has been a much better hitter in the second half of the last three years, including being practically elite in 2024 and excellent in 2025, with his Statcast data being elite in 2025. Although he's actually not hitting the ball as hard this year, that pattern seems to be repeating, so we can hope that it continues.

In case you were wondering, Randy Dobnak has 7 starts and 2 wins this year. You know who the two wins were against.

"A 20-year-old at AAA with an OPS of .800 is very exciting, a top 10 global prospect. A 20-year-old at AAA with nearly a .900 OPS is a guy to consider calling up." This article lays out the pros and cons well and ably contrasts it to Culpepper's promotion, but Jenkins turned 21 in February, before the season started.