mikelink45

Whether the players reach their potential or not is a question of coaching, aptitude, and attitude. What is really positive is that we can discuss such potential and know that there are still others behind them if they can stumble. This is very positive.

This is not an easy question to answer and I, like most of you, lack all the information needed. I can say that I am bothered by TR blocking young players with older acquisitions who have no upside and then signing them to contracts beyond the immediate need. This has happened numerous times and is not a good way to build the roster. But where are our sustained runs to excellence. We have had three series in 55 years which is better than some teams, but what I find frustrating are the close but no chance years when we would not make the move to get us out of round one. We have a poor record of developing pitching staffs and continue to lack that ACE despite the fact that it was Morris, Viola, and Kaat that made the World Series possible. I never want us pursuing the over age veteran who gets the long term contracts like Pujols, but I also do not want the mediocre two-four year contracts that we have had since TR came in. We can say that Nolasco might still become something, but even so it was a bad contract. What this adds up to is a system that is not broken, but it is not good. Only Seth and others who follow the minors can know if we are good in moving players along, getting them ready for the bigs, making significant progress. We can look at trades and signings and hold our noses, but the minor leagues is a different issue. The only true judgment will be in 2018 - are we on our way to being a real contender for the Series?

It is always a fascinating exercise to compare teams before a game is played. All of us have the bias of hope and familiarity which is why one of the notes said our 3b is better than theirs. Others see the fallacy - Fraser is the top tier. The top of the rotation is an obvious advantage to the White Sox and that means a lot. Of course, if the WS schedule Sales against the Twins we will take away that advantage (assuming of course we can own him like we did last year). Our biggest problem with projections whether Percota or Twins Daily is that we need to see our young players in after three years in the bigs when their predictions can be based on better observations and stats. In the meantime we can be last or we can be second (sorry I cannot go for number one) and that means an interesting season with a lot to talk about.

Lets hope it is Buxton in CF. He is the future and this is the level he has to adjust to now. Berrios is the pitcher I want in the rotation, Milone in the pen. Buxton and Berrios represent the players who can bring us to the next level. I am not interested in place holders who can keep us at the current level. I see Mauer's revelations giving Molitor more flexibility at first - the excuse to substitute playing time for others and that is a potential benefit to Arcia. My feelings about Santana is that he is the one on the spot, if he does not produce with the bat he is not the outfielder that they are now projecting and they need to move to replace him quickly if last year it more the norm than his rookie year. I think the future is taking shape.

Berrios is the only one I believe in. He has demonstrated his skills, met every challenge and equally important he has the attitude to succeed. He is small framed and could flame on early which leads to my Twins frustration - use him now, it is not about years of team control, but having him perform when he is healthy and strong. The other two are not on my radar at all. Kohl Stewart needs a strong year this year before I become a believer. At this point his ceiling is - Tommy Milone and his floor is in the minors. Talent has to meet performance. I am cannot measure potential. Jay has gotten a lot of press this winter in the blogs but he has not done anything in professional leagues that I can base hope on. Having Tyler Duffey break out this year he might have been a better third pitcher on this list because he needs to perform this year to prove that last fall was not a fluke. What is his ceiling? Will they figure out his curve? Will his curve destroy his elbow or shoulder?

The issue is why someone who makes the salary he makes, a guaranteed salary could not be forthright before this. Being honest might have led to a solution.

Thanks for the Stats. I did not know that. Back to the drawing board, but then if he is starting to have troubles with the other side too - I still have a real concern if Molitor does not think he can move him from the finish and in a hurry.

Bullpens are erratic at best and looking at Perkins three years of stats shows a diminishing level. In the BP a small difference is magnified. It is important to be ready to rotate the players out of their roles and get constant fresh or refreshed arms in. I would be happy to see the Twins get really aggressive and eat Nolasco's contract if he does not perform, move on from Fien, and start to rotate the young arms in and out until they reach their comfort level. I doubt anyone sees a Series ring this year and that is what we should be building towards. Start working the players who can eventually take us to the top in to the pen and elsewhere. I am pleased they did not sign any relief pitchers and I hope that the team will be ready to move the top three relievers around and vary their roles. I believe that MLB teams are starting to shift in their use of relief pitchers - thanks to KC and the Yankees are looking like they are ready to jump in with a use the best against the best hitters opportunity. The Save has to go and our bullpen is a good example. We do not need the traditional LOOGY - we have Perkins. Use him when that lefty comes up and for the others that bat that inning, whether 7,8, or 9. Match the pitcher and the batter not the pitcher and the inning. We the numbers we have in this article we can do well and forget about those who only can get a lefty out.

I have memories of Jimmy Hall in the sixties - he had such promise but a beanball - Jimmie Hall played for several years after 1965, but never again as a more than a stop-gap. Some of his decline may be attributed to a beaning, but in any case, his dramatic fall-off left the Twins with a gaping hole in center field - http://sabr.org/research/surprising-disappointment-minnesota-twins-late-1960s finished his promising career, just as it turned Mauer and Morneaus, and knees took out Oliva from a HOF career and Earl Battey from behind the plate. All the lists in the world cannot predict the injuries, the events that turn people from star to washed up. I love the lists because they begin with such promise and allow all our optimism to shine. Until a player moves in to the top 20 they are just a nice story, but when they start to surface in the tops of the various lists and there is some consistency it becomes a valuable way to muddle through the off season and look forward to spring training. Jimmy Hall stats - http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallji02.shtml

The real question is - what is the starting rotation after the all star break. Injuries, performance and no more service time conversation will bring us to the real future. (And hopefully some trades of vets for rebuilding the minors or capturing a key piece).

This is tough to sort out. In the past Gardy would have had his favorites, but Molitor has not been here long enough for us to figure out what traits are really appealing to him for companions on the bench. Danny Santana has not done enough to give him what seems like a guaranteed slot - there are many one year wonders who have come to baseball and knocked the cover off the ball and then could not do anything in subsequent years. Bob Hazle of the Milwaukee Braves was a great example. Here is a really good summary of that year - I was at the ball park to see some of his games: http://research.sabr.org/journals/1957-hurricane-swept-braves-to-pennant or you can check this out and see the top 25 one year wonders from Bleacher Report http://bleacherreport.com/articles/713369-baseballs-25-biggest-one-hit-wonders-of-all-time What this means to me is that Spring Training is to sort out a roster and winter conversation means nothing. Is Santana a player or a one year wonder? I do not know, but I do not like to think that he is almost guaranteed a roster spot and that is how the conversations have gone. Arcia is more interesting, but again, he has to show that he has matured. Of the three Tonkin seems the best bet, but we have to figure out the Nolasco pitching squad - what do we do with him? Have him sit on the bench and talk to Joe Mauer or put him in where he will push out a starter with more potential or a reliever who has no more options?

Buxton and Rosario - the runs they save in CF and LF will make up for the runs lost in RF and their bats will bloom as the summer temps rise.

It is all about numbers - TR brings in a lot of question marks with hopes that one or two shine in Spring Training.

TR makes his move! His M.O. seems to be to make a couple moves with some significance at the beginning of Free Agency then sit and watch the other teams maneuver before picking up dregs just before Spring Training. Like players, general managers have tendencies and TR does not divert from his. The only thing left is one we hope he avoids - signing an overrated vet for too much money and too many years - Nolasco, Santana, Correa...

I just finished reading the Peter Gammon blog and found it really had a message for this thread - http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-bullpen-stability-proves-vital-as-pendulum-of-dominance-continues-toward-pitching/ Hopefully the Twins have the pitching coaches in majors and minors to do what Peter describes, I have no way of judging them, but the one final aspect that I fear is the analytics. The Twins have shown real reluctance in jumping fully in to the new era of advance statistical analysis and Gammons blog really makes a case for more. TR please read the blog and ask your in-house stats man to interpret.

There is confusion in some postings. This is a good article and the simple issue as I see it would be: if you are going to sign someone, get someone good, quit filling the slots with low paid, low expectation vets - use minor leaguers that at least have an upside. It is the type of player we sign that causes our regrets.

You said an intriguing group and I am still looking for something intriguing. At this point, roll the dice with the young guys, forget about another savvy vet. There is nothing here that looks better than Burdi or Rogers or any other number of players in the minors. So we do not have a LOOGY - Perkins has shown that it does not matter which way the batters swing if you throw good stuff. We are going to be around .500 again, build for the future - our young guys should be ready in another year for a bigger push and we should have that in mind with the 40 man.

Santana in CF is getting boring. He has either regressed or he is showing what he is. Either way, we need Buxton's defense and some patience while he puts his game together. Torii took some time to get his act together and Buxton has too many tools for us to be impatient. On the other hand, there is a long list of players who come up and have a terrific first season, but never find the promise. I may be the only person on this blog post old enough to remember Bob Hazle who came up to the Milwaukee Braves and set the league on fire. A sure superstar - batting 403 for 41 games and helping propel the 1957 Braves to the championship - to be followed by .211 and .179. Check this out for good history - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18058 Danny could survive on speed and versatility, but you have to either bat of field and right now both look questionable.

Its okay to forget about him, unless there is a miracle somewhere waiting to drop in Nolasco's lap we all want to forget him and hope the Twins do to. Better to lose the money than the games.

Sano - Arcia - Vargas - Park seems like a full cupboard to me, if only we could move that big box of Sugar Coated Minnesotan out of the way.

As a small Hall advocate I find a number of recurring themes which do not deserve all the angst that they receive; Will someone get 100% of the votes - this is a big who cares item for me. Do they post the stats on the plaques? If someone is making a statement who cares, that statement only gets aired because some writer is looking for a column in the doldrums of Winter.Will the PEDS get in? Again, who cares. I am not for their induction and I do not feel that the Hall suffers from their absences. In fact, until Rose came along, Shoeless Joe Jackson got the continuing poor guy press, then Rose who has become boring, and now it is the PEDS. They get more publicity for not being in. Look at the list of ridiculous inclusions in the hall - most of which we cannot list without research - Mary Marion comes to mind, but there are many more. The HOF is getting the 10 is not enough treatment, but we have not put in more than 5 in any year of my life so obviously the congestion, if it were truly memorable could have been fixed with a couple 10 player inductions, but the fact is, most of these guys are only good - a player like Raines was an all-star, but if he does not get into the Hall will anyone care in 10 years? And Schilling - is good in the off season, this is not a post season HOF, he was good, but there are many good pitchers like Tommy John, Jim Kaat, Jack Morris who are not in and Schilling is just another very good pitcher, like Catfish Hunter and Jim Bunning, who should visit, but not be on the wall. I have visited the Hall and I really enjoyed it, but I liked the exhibits - who reads all those plaques? The best thing about the elections is not who gets in, but the conversations and memories that surround the voting.Which leads to my last point - the indignation of people like Buster Olney become really boring. Vote or don't vote. I do not care.

I like the projected lineup - except I would drop Mauer Lower (won't happen because it would create too much angst). The Danny Santana candidate for 2016 could be Rosario, I think everyone is expecting it. But I fear that Sano gets that swing flying and SOs piling up and he could be the Vargas candidate. I hope not. I really liked both of these last year, but the year before I was excited by Danny Santana. And I do expect the Hicks turn around candidate will be Buxton. Speed does not diminish unless there is injury and speed will be the weapon that pushes Buxton to the forefront. Potential in this lineup is great - but it would be amazing for all these parts to come together in 2016 - I think it will be 2017 before it moves on all cylinders, but that does not mean 2016 will not count. Now put an analysis together for defense. We know what we have on the mound and someone needs to corral all those hit balls.

Earl Weaver was the believer in the three run home run and set this model early, with success, but that success was predicated on having four 20 game winners in the rotation and outstanding defense with Belanger, Brooks Robinson, and Paul Blair made them strong up the middle. I am worried that defense does not seem to be a concern in the roster and, of course, our starting pitchers are not up to the Earl Weaver Standards. We have ignored the KC model, but we are flawed in our pursuit of the Earl Weaver model too.

The Twins are in the middle here - look at the pitching staff and we are old, look on the field and we are young. But then the Twins are seldom in line with the rest of the league. What I am waiting to see is when we reach the point where teams learn to stop giving long term high price contracts to players who have passed their prime. I look at the angels paying for what Pujols did with the Cards because they were smart enough to know that he was only going to go downhill. The Cards made the right decision, but I am looking at these contracts that are out there now and it makes no sense in light of what these charts show.

Yes - I have given up on Nolasco. Not because he mighty not have a nice mediocre season left but because he does not have any great seasons left. Move on.