mikelink45

The big question for me on the rotation is Phil Hughes. After his last performance I would say that he is showing no progress. I know spring training is for working on things, but in his case he should be working on being a high rotation starter again and what I am seeing is the HR ball and no put away. Somehow I envision he and Tonkins teaming up on his starts and setting a new record for HRs by the opposition. Since I cannot see the games and rely on TD and other sources plus the box scores I have to dig to understand. Here is an interesting set of comparisons: Year W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP 2017 Spring Training Stats 1 2 6.55 6 6 0 22.0 12 1.59 Spring Training Career Stats* 9 9 4.47 52 40 1 179.1 126 1.36 2016 Stats 1 7 5.95 12 11 0 59.0 34 1.51 MLB Career Stats 84 76 4.41 253 200 3 1204.2 970 1.29 These are from http://m.mlb.com/player/461833/phil-hughes What I find interesting is the comparison between spring 2017 and his long record of ST experiences. An era that is 2 above his average is startling. A whip that is .20 above average for a control pitcher is unnerving. He is a ten year MLB vet. After a very bad injury plagued year this is far from a good sign for the team when he is expected to be one of the top three in the rotation.

I am not able to project Mauer's hitting for 2017. I do not think he will improve except as Molitor removes him from games where he is destined to fail. So I went crazy trying to see how players decline and learned a lot. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/ has a key statement - In the past few seasons, hitters no longer improve once they arrive in the majors. Instead, their performance is constant until they begin to decline, which, on average, is at 26 years old. (This is an reminder of why players like Vargas need to play now if we want to maximize their potential.) Since Mauer strained his body by being a catcher I looked at the aging curve for catchers - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/ which has an interesting insight - As we can see, peak offensive levels are from 25 to 28, as is pretty commonly accepted, and then there’s a gradual decline as a player gets beyond those years. But notice the trend of the blue line (catchers) compared to all position players (the red line); they move basically in lock-step from 27 to 32, after which point catchers actually age better than the norms for non-catchers. And - Good 34 year olds don’t regularly become bad 35 year olds. In general, you should expect players to decline at something like +0.5 per season. If they’re especially injury prone and their bodies are breaking down, limiting future playing time, maybe you knock off +0.75 WAR per season. The next site I looked at said - hough he's not part of the study, it's worth pointing out that the decline outlined in the above graphs applies to Pujols. His 9.4 WAR in his age-29 season in 2009 was the highest of his career, but since then, his WAR totals have been trending in the wrong direction. He had a 7.3 WAR at age 30, a 5.1 WAR at age 31 and a 4.6 WAR this past season at age 32. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1539301-putting-mlb-aging-theories-to-the-test-on-star-players This next piece seems to indicate that players decline, but flatten for a period in the thirties http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/catcher-aging-curves-in-the-mainstream/ the relative production from 32-35 is pretty stable, and as others have shown, framing skills seem mostly immune to aging. So, while the downturn in aging curves might be bad news for a 32 year old catcher. Of course Mauer is not a catcher so his pitch framing and other catching skills cannot overcome his physical decline (but give hope for Castro). But Mauer also had a concussion - "Recent work, however, has called into question the assertion that full recovery after sport concussion without persistent adverse effects is the norm." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3685434/ And lastly another site may apply to Joe - ""Although players who sustain a concussion may be symptom-free and cleared by MLB [Major League Baseball] protocol to return to play, the residual effects of concussion on the complex motor skills required for batting may still be a problem," said principal investigator Dr. Jeffrey Bazarian, an associate professor of emergency medicine at the University of Rochester in New York." http://www.webmd.com/brain/news/20141126/harm-from-baseball-concussions-may-linger-study-finds With that in mind I think we cannot expect upswings from Joe at this stage, but we should understand that this great players has many factors leading to his current production.

A catcher does not have to hit a lot to be valuable. I remember Del Crandall anchoring the Milwaukee Braves in the 1950s when they were a really good team, but he did hit 260s with a strong arm and a good behind the plate presence. Castro hitting in the 220s is way to low for my liking, especially on a three year contract. I hope we get Garver up and splitting time before the season is over.

I agree with you Seth, the changes in Bullpen use in the season have already happened with the KC demonstration that a set of relievers can save a team from a set of poor starters, but the use that Miller had in the Series is a playoff only situation. He was quoted in Sports Illustrated that he won't be used during the season like he was in post season because any reliever would burn out like that. What we need baseball to do is revise the SAVE RULE AGAIN because arbitration and salaries are based on that. Instead we need to see the save as the reliever who comes in with bases loaded and no outs and stops the bleeding right there (extreme case) regardless of the inning. I am still sorry to see Jay in relief and I read into this that the Twins are still committed to the old guard filling the rotation so the bullpen is the only option.

I would like to believe the Twins will start cutting on the balance of talent expressed and future potential and not just keep a guy like Haley because we invested what in baseball is a pittance for rule 5. Tonkin is in a rut and I cannot see change coming. I was critical with how long it took to bring him up and try him out, now I might be critical of a decision to wait too long. If Molitor likes WImmers let him be the player in the bullpen. We have Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Jay...in the minors, its a good time to start auditions. Get rid of Haley and Tonkin and use this position for the future and hopefully add Breslow to the cuts too. I would like to see Duffey, Mejia, and Berrios rotate starts and relief and see if we can get one to step up and better yet - all three.

Like the Twins, the Sox have to be hoping that the prospects develop into players. That is not a sure thing, but they got variety of players in the field and on the mound and seem to have a plan in play. Right now the Twins have half a plan - bats.

Lets play for the future. If we have an idea of where 2018 might be we should start working players into that system. Dozier, Polanco, Buxton in the top three is great potential and I would love them to stick with it for at least two months to see if it will work. Mauer is not a 4/5 batter - Park, Sano fit better and I would not worry about their batting sides. Use them there. If Sano fails, move him down, not out. The end of the lineup is really interesting. Mauer, Rosario, Kepler, Castro could bat anywhere from 6 - 9, but I like Rosario or Kepler as an on base option for Doziers subsequent at bats. Remember that the first batter could potentially be lead off only in the first inning. I would have put Mauer and his OBP there, but I know they could never consider putting him 9 so I would take six, Castro 7 and Kepler/Rosario 8 and 9.

I felt that there were comments all Spring that hinted at the Berrios demotion. It would have been nice to see him get one ST start first, but more and more I feel like Berrios needs to go somewhere else. Let another team straighten out whatever is keeping him from prospering. I do not have faith that the Twins no how to do it.

The screwball used to be more common. A quick search brought up this list - Carl Hubbell. Cy Blanton. Luis Arroyo. Jack Baldschun. Bobby Castillo (taught the pitch to Valenzuela) Mike Cuellar. Warren Spahn (in the second half of his career) Not bad! If he can throw it well it is a real weapon. Good article on Hector and the pitch - http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/03/hector-santiago-los-angeles-angels-screwball-fip-era-outlier-mlb Now if someone can bring back the Forkball that let Elroy Face go 18 - 1 as a reliever for the Pirates! http://articles.latimes.com/1989-08-13/sports/sp-694_1_elroy-face

My comment does not diminish what they want from Santiago, to me it is a question of which pitchers are more important to perform in front of the eyes of management, a vet they know or young players that are important for the future. Do not forget that Gibson is now a veteran. In both age and years of service he is not a young prospect any more. He is now beginning his fifth year in the rotation 32 - 38 with a 4.59 ERA at age 29 with an accumulated WAR of 5.

My old mantra - we need a coaching staff that knows how to get players over the hump from great in the minors to at least productive in the Majors. We are wasting talent and the repetition of these events is a solid condemnation of the process. I also have a difficult time seeing Santiago going as the MLB starter and the two promising young pitchers going AAA and AA games. We know Santiago. He can stretch out versus the MIBL players as well as MLB. What does Paul have to see? Shouldn't he want to see the progress and potential of the young pitchers? Chargois does not bother me when I look at his performance, but I have to question the pitching coach and staff who did not help him progress during the ST season when players are supposed to be learning, developing...

I will look and see. I read it in the actual magazine. It is not on the webpage - it was in the text in their MLB team by team break down and was written by an unidentified scout. I was surprises. On their web page where they give the Twins a grade of D as their final winter report they reverse that by saying: "Minnesota got better at catcher (Jason Castro is an outstanding pitch framer), which could help lift an uninspiring rotation, but few of the players signed since we took an in-depth look at their off-season moves figure to do much to help the club improve on last year's 103-loss season." I have scanned the article - but they want a url for an image so here is what they said, "They gave Jason Castro a lot of money to their front-line guy. They had a good degensive catcher in Kurt Suzuki and let him walk. I would rather have Suzuki than Castro."

I wish you convinced me, but you did not. Call me the pitch framing skeptic - have you read the scouts report in Sports Illustrated - calling Suzuki a much better catcher? Play with stats all you want, Castro is okay, Santiago is a filler and neither are going to move the Twins up the standing - the only things we have going for us is that the White Sox are writing off this season, KC is going downhill, the Tigers only need a couple pulled muscles in their old crew!

That is my concern too. I have been a big fan of his, but something is setting him back and I fear it might be mental more than physical because he has shown the tools. Who do we have that can really help him get past this obstacle?

This is not the pitching staff that moves us forward. We have discussed the rotation throughout the spring and the winter and it just does not make sense. Haley should go, Rule 5 players seldom make it - I wonder how many are still on the drafting teams right now - and Haley had a chance and did not grab it. Breslow is a mystery. New angle, new wishes, still a marginal, at best, performer. Chargois is the biggest spring disappointment, he has definitely not performed well and like Haley this was his chance to move up the list. Hughes has not looked good, despite all the he looked good despite giving up three home runs comments that are more hopeful than factual and his last outing did nothing to erase the memory of his previous one. The rotation can have everyone reach their best and still be in the lower third of rotations. I suspect that Berrios will go down which I am very sorry about, but he has not grabbed the opportunity. His line in the WBC Berrios, J PUR 1 0 5.40 1 1 0 5.0 2 3 3 2 1 6 0.60 does not give him a good argument. At least 5.40 is a better ERA than his major league total to date. On the other hand Santiago looks good Santiago, H PUR 1 0 2.08 3 0 0 8.2 9 4 2 0 5 9 1.62 until to look at his WHIP which is a full 1.02 more than Berrios. https://www.worldbaseballclassic.com/stats/

They really proved the value of defense and bullpen! Their speed also played big in ways that metrics cannot measure. When they got someone on the other team got an extra degree of nervousness and that causes problems. It is what I hope Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario do for the Twins.

As one who hoped not to have Vogelsong on the roster I am happy, but the pitching of Chargois is starting to get alarming. He is 27, he has a good arm, but his outings are looking very poor and I am sorry to see this. This is the ST that he should have been impressing. Boshers is also looking like he lost the sparkle that got him through last year.

Maybe someone should talk to Sano about the sluggers market that we saw in this FA season. Teams are getting past the nonsense that K's don't matter. I am concerned with him more than with Buxton because he had early success and did not think he had to apply himself, while Buxton struggled and had to work through his difficulties which could only make him a better player long term.

Nice article. It is fun to see a player take off and make the most of their talent.

My concern is the veteran factor - one I cannot accept. As I wrote in another forum - we not only have a number of veterans around on the mound, at 1st, at 2nd, we have veteran coaches, more than ever before, and three hang around and be a veteran presence guys in Hawkins, Cuddyer, and Hunter. We do not need more clogging the roster. Breslow has not looked good. Let him go. Get on with the young players. We need players to be ready in the next few years, Breslow is going to flame out and not be there when a good pitcher is needed. Vargas vs. Park is interesting and I have to think that Park is putting on a good show to be kept and I think Molitor would lean towards him. I do not care about Santana at this point, the under performing vets are more of a concern. Get the first 24 right then we can worry about Santana.

It is time. I look at age as a major factor for pitchers because arm and shoulder issues are inevitable. Age 27 is actually getting old for a real prospect. Its time to put him in and sink or swim.

We draft bullpen pitchers to generate starters, we load up with Burdi, Reed, Hilgenberg...as the relief staff of the future and we think of a rotation of great arms and prospects. Then we take two of the top prospects and put them back in relief with a truckload of other relief prospects, none of which we want to bring to the majors and this is supposed to give us a feeling of future greatness. Good god what the hell is this all about. Wasn't is supposed to be Jay, Gonsalves, Berrios, Mejia, Romero - the rotation of the future. Maybe we are so into the new relief corp idea that we are going to have specialist that start in the second inning and carry on one per inning through the nine. No starters, just a mess of relievers. Maybe a roster of 16 pitchers and a starting nine. I guess I might have given away the fact that this is not news that makes me really happy.

This is an interesting group of prospects. My only disappointment is having Garver sent down this early. I would like to see him work with major league pitchers. If there is a possibility of having him up this year it would be good for him to be familiar with the pitchers he might see later on. I get the impression that Granite is far above Palka in the Twins thinking. Is this correct? Is Goodrum on his way to being a utility player?

I am here with my prejudice for young players. We once dipped in to the big payroll and extended years with a guy named Mauer and I have seen more whining and anguish over that than almost anything the Twins have or have not done. I look at the big contracts like Pujols and Fielder and Howard where teams go crazy paying for past performance with little expectation of getting what the contract is supposed to buy. The Cubs did not succeed because of Lester, they got there by developing players and if the TD rankings of prospects and reports from Florida are to be believed we just might have the talent ready to rise. Better we get the young arms producing and then let the other guys give them the big extensions for the end of their careers. The nucleus is there, the potential is there, even at SS where the pundits weep over Polanco's fielding we have Javier and Gordon coming along. This team is two years from going past contending to a real threat. Load up the young guys and get it going. No more Hughes, Nolasco, Santiago, Pelfrey, Correia, Pavano, Hernandez, Rogers... Get the talent coming up to produce, it is the only way this team can truly be competitive over the long run. I understand what you are saying, but I do not want any of these players. I would prefer the young potential prospects over guys who have already stressed their arms and have limited years ahead.

Many players have real country pride and we should respect, not condemn them for this.