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The Great Hambino

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Everything posted by The Great Hambino

  1. Fair enough. I woulda pulled him maybe after the Beavers double and definitely after the Rutschman double
  2. I don't hate the idea of using Abel this way in this part of the schedule where you don't need your 5th starter right away. Keep him on a somewhat reqular schedule while lightening the load on your bullpen where you can. Just didn't execute well enough with two strikes
  3. One that the catcher lets go to the backstop? They're just different degrees of bad. Like different circles of hell
  4. ABS gives us the opportunity for a new category of bad strikeout: looking with the bases loaded and two outs while senselessly burning your final challenge
  5. Pete Alonso, for the good of society, please shave your head. Stop fighting it
  6. This touches on my biggest gripe with how analytics-based decision making is presented. Instead of comparing average outcomes of decisions, the exact same data could be used to tell us a decision needs to have an X% chance of success to be the optimal one. Using this run expectancy situation as an example, you could use the exact same data used to come up with average run expectancy to determine that swinging away must be successful 28%* of the time to make the risk worthwhile. Once you have that, now you can look at the specific game situation to determine if you meet that threshold. Now you have a framework that still relies on the same quantitative data as run expectancy while allowing you to adjust the dials to account for the realities of the current situation. That's how you marry quantitative and qualitative analysis to come up with the best decision. You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater and ignore all that valuable data and just revert to relying on the manager to gnaw on a blade of grass and do whatever his tummy tells him to do As a secondary pet peeve, win probability should replace run expectancy as the bedrock of these types of decisions, especially later in the game. Doing so would do a better job of accounting for the fact that a run while down one in the eighth has more marginal value than a run while up two in the fifth, for example. * Figure pulled out of thin air
  7. That was also immediately after Martin had thrown to the wrong base on the sac fly which allowed the eventual winning run to move into scoring position. A big complaint about the prior manager was the apparent lack of accountability for mental mistakes Every situation has a unique set of circumstances. My expectations aren't too high, but I think we need to give Shelton a little time to establish his habits before we turn on him
  8. It's the first start of the season and Ryan is coming off a pretty disjointed spring training ramp-up ... I'm giving Shelton the benefit of the doubt for now. If the same thing happens to a healthy Ryan on May 1, then I'll start getting annoyed. Plus, the bullpen's exposure is going to be limited by never having to pitch the ninth inning on the road No matter how bad things get, Ryan starts will remain must-see TV. His curve was especially nasty
  9. They must not trust Roden in CF. That's the best I can come up with
  10. The premature 'round the horn is gonna be a fun byproduct of ABS
  11. You'd be exhausted too if you spent all that time walking back to the dugout carrying your bat during the WBC
  12. No runs allowed, no decision: the true Joe Ryan Experience At least until 8/3
  13. Throwing the ball to third on a flyball with runners on first and third Midseason form
  14. I guess no one named O'Neill should set foot in the outfield Luke's hustle is refreshing
  15. It took em five whole innings to bring out the Yakety Sax on D ... not bad
  16. I just noticed that the Securian ad patch and that weird new MIN patch aren't on the same arm for every Twin. Ryan has Securian on the left while Lee has it on the right. That's weird
  17. And if that doesn't work, with enough Wallbangers we can at least forget those LOBs
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