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NYCTK

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Everything posted by NYCTK

  1. NYCTK
    The San Diego Padres showing the path. As recently as 2018 the Minnesota Twins and the San Diego Padres were very comparable, similar market size, similar franchise value. Since then, the Padres have spent around $500 million more in their payroll, seeing about $350 million returned back to the team in elevated attendance and other revenue sources. As a reward, the Padres are nearing a sale of their franchise, and their asking price is $800 million higher than the Twins were seeking. And it looks like they're going to get it, at least most of the way there. The Pohalds are terrible business people.
  2. NYCTK
    The two trade deadlines prior he was nearly inactive. He was passive.
  3. NYCTK
    The Twins franchise value was an estimated $1.025 B when Falvey started. With his departure, the franchise value is about $1.75 B. That's an annual return of 4.5%. The Pohalds view him as a failure. In baseball, his teams won a single 3 game playoff series, (partially) in an era of expanded playoffs. The fans view him as a failure. He wasn't a complete disaster, but there's very little good that came of this era. He gets a D.
  4. NYCTK
    When there's that small of a sample size (153 PA), it's often more helpful to look at high minors numbers. Compare him to Larnach's and Martin's high minors numbers at the same age. PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BB% K% Larnach 293 0.255 0.355 0.406 0.761 0.151 11.3% 29.0% Martin 1206 0.262 0.401 0.363 0.765 0.101 14.2% 19.0% Roden 881 0.303 0.403 0.475 0.877 0.172 12.0% 13.6% It's not ridiculous to look at these three players and think that Roden has a significantly better skillset, and therefore ceiling. Larnach's and Martin's major league skills have translated basically exactly as expected and Roden's have not thusfar. But rather than concluding he's a bust after a quarter season, it's far more reasonable for a team like the Twins to give Roden more play because the struggles he's shown likely are a mirage. Neither his K rate or BB rate seem in line with what he showed in the high minors. Royce Lewis had 153 PAs by his 42nd game with a 580 OPS last season. It would be as foolish to completely give up on Royce as it would be to give up on Roden. None of this is to say I'm even a fan of Roden. I think he's more appropriate as a 4th OF, but I want to see him play nearly every day for a 74 win team to see what he can actually do.
  5. NYCTK
    Eh, how closely will the check that? I know Citi Field had a similar program and often times the SRO ticket I was buying on the secondary markets were from these plans.
  6. NYCTK
    Yes, in a quarter season worth of play split between two different organizations. Anyone making conclusions on that run is a fool. It adds a question mark, but like I said, I'd probably trade Larnach for him, one for one.
  7. NYCTK
    Gotta somehow avoid dropping to 1.5 million attendance. Each one of these Twins Pass sales counts as 80 in attendance whether or not people actually use them!
  8. NYCTK
    Then he wouldn't get as many meatballs and he'd suffer. Wallner Career PA AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA Low Leverage 507 0.267 0.367 0.591 0.958 0.403 Med/High Leverage 465 0.191 0.318 0.369 0.687 0.308
  9. NYCTK
    What's with the ****ing on Roden? Alan Roden has a ZiPS projected RC+ of 104 Trevor Larnach has a ZiPS projected RC+ of 103 In addition, Roden is significantly better with the glove and significantly more agile. Larnach is NOT at a different level than Roden. They are both on the same level, and tbh I'd trade Larnach straight up for a player like Alan Roden.
  10. NYCTK
    Why/How are we SURE that these choices weren't his? Ty France was a $1 mil contract. It was a good contract. The selling of the bullpen was a fine decision, and the first time in 3 trade deadlines that the Twins actually made any significant move, which is extremely damning on its own. Why are we SURE he didn't want to trade away Jax and Duran? He was handcuffed? He was the guy in charge of the roster and he was paid to put together a winning roster. His own lack of imagination or creativity isn't anyone's fault but his own. Correct. He was nothing but an ass-kissing corporate type. I have no patience for these lot. No integrity, constantly only trying to save their own position of power and/or wealth. No one should feel even slightly bad for Derek Falvey.
  11. NYCTK
    Andrew Morris didn't make top 100 because he's never been highly regarded as a prospect. Zebby DID make Top 100 lists. Their #4 overall prospect is a pitcher older than 23 more than 2 years removed from college.
  12. NYCTK
    With the updated Baseball Prospectus 101 released today it's worth pointing out there are no Twins pitching prospects on the list. Walker Jenkins - #19 Emmanuel Rodriguez - #48 Eduardo Tait - #54 Kaelen Culpepper - #71
  13. NYCTK
    Very obviously not. Eight years into his pipeline, one year ago, the TwinsDaily staff chose Marco Raya as the Twins 5th best overall prospect. And today, with Falvey's departure, the highest regarded pitching prospect for the Twins, Prielipp, ranks outside the top 50 prospects in the league, completely outside the top 100 by most prospect evaluators. This system is probably somewhat better than when Falvey took it over. But funny enough, Keith Law ranked the Twins farm #21 going into the 2017 season, and now, at the end of Falvey's reign, Law recently ranked them....#21.
  14. NYCTK
    Spotrac. If you wanna quibble with the exact numbers, the point remains. Thinking the Twins can't possibly ever approach the top half or even top ten payrolls in the league is just non-factual. Of course they could. Say, after 2023 they invested instead of what they did. That's a lot of additional revenue they cost themselves.
  15. NYCTK
    Yes, but due to roster construction and the fact that they both have options remaining, no one should be surprised to see them bounce up and down. They are pretty redundant, filling the same role, so I can imagine them playing musical chairs throughout the season.
  16. NYCTK
    Matt Wallner is an interesting player. I am becoming more and more of a "hater". He cleans up in low leverage situations and disappears when it counts. At least thusfar in his career: PA AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA Low Leverage 507 0.267 0.367 0.591 0.958 0.403 Med/High Leverage 465 0.191 0.318 0.369 0.687 0.308
  17. NYCTK
    I agree on the near zero value of those small samples. But the point being that he had a very short hot stretch, and outside of it was the same below replacement level player we watched in 2024. Same thing with Kody Clemens, which I think most people have come to terms with. I am not putting much weight in the short hot stretch. But at the same time, he does have an option year remaining so I won't be surprised, nor disappointed, to see him in AAA at any point. He, quite frankly, SHOULD spend more time in AAA than he does at the top of a major league batting order. Alan Roden still has the better resume and I expect him to outperform Martin in the 2026 season. But Trevor Larnach is the "best" of the 3 so they're both trying to take playing time from him for the time being.
  18. NYCTK
    I don't know what he did to EARN it. I'm OK with Martin and Roden getting a proper competition for that LF/4OF role, but Martin belongs nowhere near the top of the order. But I still have Roden as the significantly better bet than Martin, but that's mostly because I remember his atrocious defense in 2024. Martin had a great stretch at the end of August, but his season was still very questionable and I still don't think he's got the skillset to reach 1500 PAs in his career. Splitting his season into 3rds of approximately 60 PAs: 1st: 645 OPS 2nd: 921 OPS 3rd: 648 OPS I wouldn't say that this is a player to count on. To me he looks like he's, at best, a 700 OPS guy with iffy OF defense. Not useless, but not someone that should be handed a starting role, and especially not someone that should be at the top of the order.
  19. NYCTK
    I think this completely ignores the economics of baseball. A $200 Million payroll would have placed them as #15 in the league. Not ridiculous and something that would be entirely manageable in times when the team was trying to field a proper contender. An occasional $200 Million payroll is not some ridiculous request. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners are not LARGE market teams. San Diego is not a LARGE market team. Now, obviously, it would be foolish for the Twins to try to live in that realm, and force that spending in a down year like 2025-2026. This sort of management has made San Diego's books a challenge. But San Diego is also selling out every game, so the fans are clearly responding.
  20. NYCTK
  21. NYCTK
    I'm trying to be nice towards him! He's played a lot more CF and he had an impressive number of swipes last season (but he's not really proven to be all that dangerous or effective stealing bags prior).
  22. NYCTK
    I'm sorry, but this just sounds like the people that were really excited about Keirsey. Fedko had a really great season last year, but there's still nothing on his resume that points to any reason to think he'll be a successful major leaguer. Compare him to Alan Roden, who is somehow younger, and has been significantly better at every step of his career. Fedko might have a small edge in defense and/or running. But small enough to basically ignore. I hope Fedko DOES get a shot, but no one should expect anything from him, much like McCusker last year.
  23. NYCTK
    Why would anyone stop hating the idiot billionaires that have literally tried to kill the franchise, and now metaphorically killed the franchise. Those same idiotic billionaires that said they were selling the team only to sell off a minority share to remain in charge? **** the Pohalds man.
  24. NYCTK
    Two things can be true: Yes, Falvey sucked at his job. Yes, the Pohlads have proven to be in the bottom tier of MLB owners over their 40 odd years of stewardship.
  25. NYCTK
    Anyone that thinks this is a winning team is delusional. Fans are under no obligation to follow their team by shoving their head in the sand. Minnesotans, more than anyone in the country right now, know that you probably shouldn't believe the words from the malevolent billionaire assuring the population that they know best.
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