NYCTK
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Everything posted by NYCTK
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The problem you run into with this thinking is team's aren't willing to give up the players you would want for a 1 for 1. Which is why teams then become placated with that next tier of prospects. I only use the Mets as an example because of my familiarity with them, not because I think they're the best fit. But you're just flat out not getting Nolan McLean for Joe Ryan. So the Twins would then be looking at Jett Williams, but not only Jett Williams, but getting the Mets to add another player like Jonathon Santucci, etc etc. That's great in theory. But if your system is weaker and your depth would have DaShawn Keirsey Jr. or Ryan Fitzgerald as your 4th OF or backup MIF, then teams are wise to spend some additional capital in order to improve the team.
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Oh, I don't mean to imply that. Instead that he was no longer an ace, just a good #2. His drop in stuff post 2022 was pretty noticeable.
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And a team from a much smaller market won the most games in the league and made the LCS. And the Padres in a similarly sized market have been one of the most exciting teams in the league over the last 4 seasons. And the Mariners are in a similarly sized market and were about an inch away from making the World Series this year. People complaining about payroll or market size is so boring.
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The two teams were 22nd and 28th in SB this season. They were 3rd and 7th in OPS+. And they were 10th and 16th in ERA+. Funny enough the Blue Jays lack an actual ace, a true top of the rotation star, arguable Bieber but he's only pitched 30 innings in the last couple seasons due to injury. Which this may still may come to be their undoing, seeing as the Dodgers have 3 or 4. But even so, the Blue Jays are now in a best of 3 series with home field advantage. Offensive might still is the best bet to building a true contender. Doesn't need to be pure power, but it needs to be run scoring ability.
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Road to a Rebound: Trevor Larnach
NYCTK replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Arguably not. But Neither Jenkins or Rodriguez seem to be ready for prime time come opening day, and Alan Roden (as well as Martin) seem to be fine there in short amounts but ultimately stretched past their defensive limitations in CF. So I understand the thought that you need a proper defensive CF as Buxton insurance. People here keep saying this, but I don't agree with the assertion. Manuel Margot is the only example I can think of someone in the last 3 years that should have been DFAd and wasn't. And even if he were, the replacement was going to be Keirsey, so I get in hindsight why the Twins didn't do it. Yes, Outman would be held as the 4/5th OF but in the event a starters job load opened up and either Jenkins or Rodriguez (or the more defensively limited OF prospects) were proving themselves deserving a promotion, I don't really think the Twins would hesitate to call up that prospect. And Outman's presence allows the organization to keep those prospects in the minors getting every day playing time if there isn't a starters role available. Long way of saying Outman would be on the roster instead of Keirsey. Outman would not be on the roster instead of Walker Jenkins. Which I'm not going to pretend to be upset about. -
Even the Brewers are not going all in. Their philosophy seems to be carrying over from previous GM Stearns about sustaining a really good system, top to bottom. And it's really frustrating. Not every veteran they've parted with was a mistake. They saw the writing on the wall regarding Burnes, and cut ties with him at the right time. Same with Devin Williams. However, they should have made every effort to retain Willy Adames. The 2025 Brewers struggled to score big runs, and Adames would have helped with that. But the Brewers are one of those few teams that actually aren't even owned by a billionaire. They may not even be able to survive a season with a $40 Million loss, meaning that $180 Million for Adames is a massive risk. Not that you'll see me crying for the wealthy owner's bank account.
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The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm sorry you're having a bad day. Hope it improves.- 61 replies
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Road to a Rebound: Trevor Larnach
NYCTK replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Interesting question. (Un?)fortunately it's not an either or question and the Twins can easily keep both on the roster, at least through expanded rosters in Spring Training. I think I'd probably take Outman for the reason I think they traded for him, a very good defensive OF to act as the Buxton insurance (at least in the first half before either Jenkins or Rodriguez should be expected to be called upon). Outman means there's no need to bring in someone like Margot or Bader. Not that he's better, just that he's already there. -
The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You an scroll back and see. It's on this same page, it ain't far. Someone shat on the idea of signing IKF. I criticized that someone because reflexively hating the idea of signing a veteran is a stupid thing to do. That's the entire conversation.- 61 replies
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The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't know why you're having an entirely different conversation. That's the entire conversation buddy. Someone said it'd be wrong for the Twins to hire any veteran, any at all. That sort of thought is obviously wrong. And now you've worked yourself into a tizzy over nothing.- 61 replies
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The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Anyone who thinks washed up veterans like Ty France deserve to be on a major league roster is a fool. Now let's turn to the World Series box scores to see the list of people with RBI. OH WOW! It appears veteran has-beens, and small role players can still be valuable contributors on very good teams.- 61 replies
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The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Oh shoot. I forgot that Harrison Bader didn't play at all for the Twins. He didn't get a single hit that fans cheered for. He didn't make a single catch that got kids excited. Maybe the point of players is actually to watch them, enjoy their play, and actually improve the team. Maybe we shouldn't boil down Bader exclusively to what the Twins received upon his exit. If you want to completely punt on the season, fine by me. Like, you don't even want the Twins to even try to win 60 games? That's weird as a Twins fan. See, I'm actually a Twins fan and I'm happy to see the Twins make efforts to improve their team. But I guess that what makes us different. No.- 61 replies
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The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Bader is just the example proving why this reflexive hatred of veteran role players is obviously stupid. It was wrong last offseason. It's wrong this offseason. And it'll be wrong next offseason. This obviously doesn't mean any veteran signing would be good, IKF specifically might very well be a bad idea. It just means it's incredibly stupid to hate the idea of filling out a roster with outside help.- 61 replies
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The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
OK. And that was very obviously wrong. And you can go back to the day of the signing to read plenty of people saying that sort of thought was wrong. And, no surprise, it's still wrong.- 61 replies
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The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
OK, but that's one player out of dozens of possible free agents. Are you claiming there isn't a single veteran free agent that would benefit the Twins in any year, ever? And IKF, or any other veteran middle infielder, would ideally be signed as a role player not as the every day starter. Depending on Brooks Lee to play 162 games at SS probably isn't the best idea, no? I didn't seem to hear anyone complaining that Bader was on the roster when presumptive DH Miranda sucked or Lewis was on the IL. You can then say you're fine with him starting every single game until Culpepper is ready, but what if that isn't until mid-2027? Development isn't linear and Culpepper has been quite good in AA, but not so great that he's forcing himself onto the major league roster. You might also say you're fine with Ryan Fitzgerald (or other AAAA) as the backup SS. But why are so many fans opposed to a 1 year deal for a veteran to improve the team, if only slightly? I keep hearing that these veterans are stealing opportunities and hampering the development of the internal Twins talent, but to that I ask who? Who was hurt with the presence of Harrison Bader? Or even Manuel Margot? Austin Martin? He was arguably worse than Margot in 2024, and he was hurt in 2025. Keirsey? LOL. So, who would be hurt by signing the hypothetical IKF? Kody Clemens? Eduoard Julien?- 61 replies
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The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In my ideal world we'd actually see MLB split into two leagues with promotion and relegation. 100% revenue sharing would be easier to enact if you convinced the Cohen's of the world that they don't have to share with teams that are actively in a rebuild or perpetually just trying to milk their investment, like the Pirates or Athletics.- 61 replies
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The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's almost as if veteran role players help fill out good teams and instinctively hating on journeyman veterans is stupid. If only the Twins had signed a veteran, like Bader, that everyone instantly **** on, like Bader, that proved everyone was foolish for hating on the idea of signing a veteran role player. Someone like, I don't know, maybe Harrison Bader? Oh well, I'm sure fans here have learned their lesson.- 61 replies
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Road to a Rebound: Trevor Larnach
NYCTK replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
lol, sure gramps -
Road to a Rebound: Trevor Larnach
NYCTK replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Probably a matter of the manager picking more favorable lefties for him to start against. More Poviches than Skubals. -
Road to a Rebound: Trevor Larnach
NYCTK replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is a public forum. I'm not trying to harass you I'm responding to comments in a forum. Sorry you don't like me I guess but I don't really care? -
Road to a Rebound: Trevor Larnach
NYCTK replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is why I've been saying they should start Larnach at SS. They've unfairly pigeonholed him as a LF. They should let him play at SS, even though he struggles. There's only one way to get better, and that's to make the team worse in the hopes that some day the players will figure it out. -
The Twins and the Illusion of Hope in a Rebuild
NYCTK replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
IKF is playing in the World Series. Why are you ****ing on him?- 61 replies
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OK. No MLB team with a GM that wasn't completely brain dead (and I mean that quite literally) would trade McLean for Joe Ryan. Like I said, I'm not being stubborn or overrating Mets. I'm saying, definitively, that no one with any baseball and MLB roster rule knowledge would trade the major league ready #1 or #2 pitching prospect in all baseball that has already pitched a quarter season in MLB with a 117 Stuff+ and a 2.78 xFIP, for a very good pitcher that's peak has been no better than that prospect has already shown. Not to mention McLean is obviously cheaper, younger, and under team control for a lot longer. There are perhaps only 10-15 prospects in all of baseball that aren't attainable for Joe Ryan, and maybe 2 of those are pitching prospects. Nolan McLean is one of those prospects.
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This is a perfect example of why it's an interesting tool but deeply flawed. Like all the AI tools. So, rough napkin math, that's projecting as Joe Ryan as 3.5 WAR the next two seasons, seems appropriate. But then, it seems as though McLean is being projected for approximately 5.5 WAR over his 6 seasons of team control. That seems appropriate for the next tier of prospects, someone like Tong or Tolle, but as I said, McLean has graduated and will be ahead of Ryan in a fair amount of power rankings and projection systems next year. His stuff has been seen at the major league level and it's spectacular. No team in baseball would trade McLean for Joe Ryan. Not one. This is a laughably bad trade for the Mets. You post this on Twitter and Mets Twitter would swarm you with ridicule. Kody Clemens having any value is laughable in itself. He's a waiver wire rider for the remainder of his career. His value is exactly 0.0. Same with Andrew Morris effectively. That quality of arm is available a hundred times every season on the wire. And the Mets have no need for another OF that plays bad defense. Ryan and Buxton...now we're talking.
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