Cody Christie

Frontline starting pitching was the Twins' most significant need this winter, and the club decided to double down on young pitchers being ready to contribute. Clearly, the pitching pipeline plan failed for 2022, but is there hope for the future? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Last winter, it was clear to anyone looking at the Twins roster that the team needed frontline starting pitching. There were other off-season needs, but they only had Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober penciled into the rotation and many other question marks. Minnesota had the financial flexibility to sign frontline starting pitching, but the club decided to go in a different direction. With the pending lockout, the Twins front office watched most frontline free agent starters ink contracts with other organizations. Minnesota's lone signing before the lockout was Dylan Bundy, who figured to fit into the rotation's back half. It was tough to decipher how the Twins expected to fill the rotation, but the team's plan became clear as spring training inched closer. Following the lockout, Sonny Gray was the Twins' biggest offseason pitching acquisition. He was a clear frontline starter and pitched that way during the 2022 season. The team added Chris Archer to join Bundy at the back of the rotation, and Chris Paddack joined the club in a last-minute deal before Opening Day. All these arms impacted the 2022 Twins, but the club wanted to rely on the young pitching in the system to supplement the veteran arms. Derek Falvey was brought to Minnesota because of his experience with the Cleveland organization. During his Cleveland tenure, one of his calling cards was cultivating young pitching, which has been a staple of the Guardians organization. Minnesota was going to start the 2022 campaign with Ryan and Ober in the rotation, but there were expectations that other young pitchers would join their ranks. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case, and Minnesota's pitching pipeline may have taken a step back this season. As the season began, it looked like the Twins had plenty of pitching prospects in the upper minors that had the potential to impact the roster. Minnesota had five upper minors starting pitchers ranked in their top-10 prospects, and others rounded out their top-20 list. Ryan had an up-and-down season as a rookie, but he is on pace to set the team's rookie record for strikeouts. Josh Winder and Cole Sands have combined to pitch just over 80 big league innings, with both missing games due to injury. Louie Varland saw his stock rise the most out of this group as he pitched well in the upper minors before making his big league debut in September. Matt Canterino and Jordan Balazovic were arguably the team's top pitching prospects entering the 2022 campaign, but it was a lost season for both. Canterino dominated on the mound in 13 appearances, but he needed Tommy John surgery before the season's end. Balazovic was on pace to debut in 2022, but he struggled at Triple-A and is now getting back on track. Besides Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson helped his stock the most this season, and he deserves to make some starts for the Twins down the stretch. Many will blame injuries for the Twins' failures during the 2022 season. However, the lack of contributions from the pitching pipeline is also concerning. Not every pitching prospect can be successful throughout their professional careers, and there is hope that some of these arms will get healthy in the offseason. As Minnesota's focus turns to 2023, the front office might not be able to rely as heavily on the pitching pipeline when building next year's roster. Did the pitching pipeline plan fail in 2022? Is there hope for improvement in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Matt Wallner smashed his way through the upper minors on the way to making his big league debut. Here's why Wallner was the unanimous choice for Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (graphics by Thieres Rabelo) Last season, Jose Miranda compiled one of the best minor league seasons in Twins' history. He was named the Twins Daily 2021 Minor League Hitter of the Year, and fans have seen how he has translated that into a successful rookie campaign. For the second consecutive season, there was a clear choice for the organization's Minor League Hitter of the Year, with Matt Wallner cementing himself into the team's long-term plans. Wallner grew up in Forest Lake, MN, and was impressive as a high school slugger. Minnesota took him in the 32nd round of the 2016 MLB Draft (as a pitcher), but Wallner was committed to playing at the University of Southern Mississippi. He became a three-year starter at the school while averaging over 19 home runs per season with a 1.113 OPS. He helped his draft stock significantly, and the Twins took him with the 39th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, this time as a three-time All-American outfielder. Wallner showed some power in the lower minors as his OPS was .810 or higher in 2019 and 2021. For the most part, he was slightly older than the average age of the competition at each level, so it would have been nice to see him post even better offensive numbers. He missed over two months of the 2021 season with a broken hamate bone, so the Twins decided to find him some extra at-bats after the minor league season concluded. His performance in the 2021 Arizona Fall League might have been what pushed him to a tremendous 2022 campaign. In 18 games, he went 20-for-66 (.303 BA) with two doubles and six home runs, which resulted in a 1.011 OPS. Minnesota sent Wallner to Double-A to start the 2022 campaign, where he was younger than the average age of the competition at his level for the first time since 2019. His season started slowly as he posted a .200 BA and a .741 OPS in April. His bat started to heat up in May when he hit seven doubles and six homers in 24 games (.984 OPS). However, the month of June is where he solidified his prospect status. As the calendar flipped to June, Pitchers couldn't find a way to retire Wallner. He got on base in 50% of his plate appearances for the month. In 27 games that month, he only failed to reach base in three contests. He had two multi-homer games and seven games where he walked twice or more. Wallner ended the month hitting .345/.500/.714 (1.214) with five doubles, one triple, and eight home runs. July saw Wallner's bat cool off a bit, but the month also saw some other impressive feats. He represented the Twins at the 2022 Futures Game in Los Angeles and hit a two-run homer in a tie game. Minnesota also promoted him to Triple-A, where he was four years younger than the average age of the competition. After adjusting to St. Paul, Wallner posted a .978 OPS with 17 doubles, three triples, and six home runs in 39 games from August 2- September 15. With the big-league club struggling, there was some question about why the team wasn't promoting Wallner for the team's playoff push. He quickly made his mark with the Twins as his first big-league hit was a home run with his family in attendance. It was a perfect way to cap a tremendous 2022 season, and there is little doubt that Wallner's powerful bat will be part of the Twins line-up for most of the next decade. Runner-Up: Edouard Julien, IF AA Stats (113 G): .300/.441/.490 (.931), 19 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 67 RBI Like Wallner, Julien was drafted out of college in 2019 but was taken in the 18th round. In his first two professional seasons, he has combined for a .922 OPS while moving from Low-A to Double-A. He was a staple in the Wind Surge line-up this season and faced older pitchers in over 87% of his plate appearances. Defensively, Minnesota had him focus on second base in 2022, so that's his most likely path to the big leagues. Second Runner-Up: Chris Williams, 1B/C AA/AAA Stats (109 G): .255/.352/.528 (.880), 21 2B, 1 3B, 28 HR, 88 RBI Williams posted impressive power numbers, including double-digit home runs at Double- and Triple-A. Minnesota took him in the 8th round of the 2018 MLB Draft from Clemson. The 2022 season was the first where most of his plate appearances came as a first baseman instead of a catcher. This may have helped his power numbers increase, as he could keep his legs stronger throughout the season. Honorable Mention: Noah Cardenas, C/1B Low-A Stats (99 G): .261/.421/.413 (.834), 18 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 43 RBI Minnesota took Cardenas with their 8th-round pick in 2021 from UCLA. He impressed in his first full professional season as he caught over 460 innings and played time at first base. Cardenas led the team in many offensive categories. His prospect stock will continue to rise if he can hit for power while continuing to catch. What impressed you the most about the names mentioned above? Should a different player have made the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. PREVIOUS WINNERS: 2012 - Oswaldo Arcia 2013 - Miguel Sano 2014 - Mitch Garver 2015 - Max Kepler 2016 - Daniel Palka 2017 - Mitch Garver 2018 - Alex Kirilloff 2019 - Trevor Larnach 2021 - Jose Miranda View full article

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It takes multiple seasons for a pitcher to make his way from the short-season leagues to the big leagues. The Twins hope some of these pitchers can impact the organization in the years ahead. Image courtesy of Instagram (graphics by Thieres Rabelo) Minnesota signed Miguel Olivares out of Venezuela in September 2021 which meant the 2022 season was his professional debut. The Twins used Olivares mainly as a starter, with eight of his 11 appearances coming in that role. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in every appearance, which helped him post a sub-1.70 ERA in every month of the season. Olivares didn’t allow a home run all season and posted a 9.7 K/9. In July, Olivares posted his strongest numbers of the season. He combined for a 1.35 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP with a 23-to-7 strikeout to walk ratio in 20 innings. For the season, he held batters to a .150/.272/.177 slash line as only three of his 23 hits allowed were for extra-bases. He didn’t allow an extra-base hit after July 26th. His numbers were strong as a starter and a reliever as he posted identical 9.6 K/9 totals, but he was better in a starting role. In eight starts (34 2/3 innings), he allowed four earned runs (1.04 ERA) with a 0.89 WHIP and a 37-to-13 strikeout to walk ratio. Nearly 78% of his plate appearances came against younger batters, so it will be interesting to track his development as he moves up the organizational ladder. His pitching coach in the DSL, DJ Engle, had this to say about Olivares: "Miguel is a talented young arm who is mature beyond his age. He did a great job this season of everything we asked of him, most of which was new to him, but he hit the ground running early on in camp. He always wanted to expand his game and would continue to work on the little things daily throughout the season. He turned in a great season, excited to continue to see him develop." Runner-Up: Cesar Lares, LHP DSL Stats (11 G): 2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 71 K, 20 BB, 46 IP Minnesota signed Lares out of Venezuela in May 2022, and he made his professional debut a few weeks later. As an 18-year-old, Lares carved up hitters in the DSL with an eye-popping 13.9 K/9. He allowed more hits than one would like with 6.1 H/9, but he was able to get out of jams with his high strikeout rate. Nearly all his earned runs allowed came in two games at the start of the season. From July 2nd to August 20th, he posted a 1.87 ERA while batters hit .158/.235/.217 against the left-handed hurler. Nearly 68% of his plate appearances came against younger batters, which he held to a .193 BA and a .584 OPS. Second Runner-Up: Ledwin Tavares, RHP DSL Stats (10 G): 3.70 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 33 K, 10 BB, 41 1/3 IP In January 2022, the Twins signed Tavares as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic before assigning him to the DSL. All but six of his at-bats were against older batters, and he held them to a .596 OPS. Tavares won four consecutive decisions from June 15th through July 20th while posting a sub-2.00 ERA and holding batters to a .198 batting average. In three of his ten appearances, he allowed a home run, so that will be something to keep an eye on next season, especially as he comes stateside. Honorable Mentions: Cristian Jimenez, RHP (DSL): 3.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 49 K, 7 BB, 37 1/3 IP In his second stint in the DSL, Jimenez saw his strikeout numbers improve, and his walk rate dropped from 4.3 BB/9 to 1.7 BB/9. Cole Bellair, RHP (FCL): 1.61 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 20 K, 6 BB, 22 1/3 IP Bellair spent time in independent leagues before joining the Twins organization in 2021. As a 25-year-old, his number improved significantly in the FCL. Roger Duran, RHP (DSL): 2.22 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 23 K, 14 BB, 28 1/3 IP Last season, Duran allowed 29 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings (11.03 ERA). His 2022 season improved in nearly every statistical category as he repeated the DSL. Juan Rojas, RHP (FCL): 3.60 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 38 K, 4 BB, 30 IP Rojas came stateside in 2022 and pitched well for the FCL Twins before being included in the Jorge Lopez deal at the trade deadline. Which players will most likely impact the Twins down the road? Who would you vote as the short-season pitcher of the year? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. PREVIOUS WINNERS: 2016 - Huascar Ynoa 2017 - Jovani Moran 2018 - Andrew Cabezas 2019 - Cody Lawyerson 2021 - Samuel Perez View full article

During a short season, it can be challenging for hitters to separate themselves from other players at their level. In one of this season's closest voting results, each of the top three candidates was considered for the Twins Daily Short-Season Hitter of the Year. Image courtesy of Instagram (graphics by Thieres Rabelo) Minnesota signed Jose Rodriguez as part of the 2022 international signing period. At the time, the Twins were signing other players for higher signing bonuses, which may have helped Rodriguez fly under the radar. As a 17-year-old, Minnesota had him spend the entire season in the Dominican Summer League, where he showed why he might be a prospect to keep an eye on in the years to come. The DSL Twins started their season in June, and Rodriguez slowly started to see his bat warm up. In his first 18 games, he went 17-for-61 (.279 BA) with three doubles, two triples, and two home runs. For the month, he had three games with three or more hits. It was an impressive start to the season, especially since he faced older pitchers in all but 12 of his plate appearances this year. July was Rodriguez's most impressive month as he hit .333/.414/.747 (1.161) with eight doubles, one triple, and seven home runs. He added on three stolen bases and a 19-to-10 strikeout to walk ratio. Rodriguez had a 14-game on-base streak that saw him go 22-for-52 (.423 BA) with 14 extra-base hits. In August, he posted a .919 OPS with nine extra-base hits in 15 games. To end the season on a strong note, Rodriguez went 3-for-5 with two home runs and five RBI on August 18th. Ranking teenage prospects before they sign can be challenging for evaluators, but Rodriguez showed he might have been a steal from last year's signing class. Runner-Up: Ricardo Olivar, C/OF Rookie League Stats (40 G): .349/.442/.605 (1.046), 12 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 23 RBI Olivar has a unique skill set as the Twins use him as a catcher and an outfielder. His bat is so good that there is no wonder the team wants him in the lineup as much as possible. Last season, he struggled in his professional debut with a .686 OPS in 34 games for the FCL Twins. In July and August this season, he combined to hit .344/.446/.677 (1.123) with 18 extra-base hits in 27 games. His performance earned him a September promotion to Fort Myers, where he played three games, including a 2-for-4 effort in his final appearance. Second Runner-Up: Yasser Mercedes, OF DSL Stats (41 G): .355/.421/.555 (.975), 13 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 30 SB Mercedes ranked as one of the best international prospects in this year's signing class, and he showcased all of his tools in his professional debut. He hit for average and power, played terrific outfield defense, and stole 30 bases in 41 games. Mercedes had multiple hits in 16 games, and he saw his OPS increase each month of the season. He's one of the team's top prospects, and he should rise on prospect rankings this winter based on his professional debut. Honorable Mentions: Rafael Cruz, 1B/3B (FCL/DSL): .297/.398/.558 (.956), 8 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR Cruz saw his OPS jump over 370 points in his second professional season. Alexander Pena, 1B/3B (FCL): .317/.374/.537 (.910), 7 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR Pena repeated the FCL as a 20-year-old but saw a significant increase in his power production this season. Bryan Acuna, SS (DSL): .310/.409/.393 (.803) 12 2B, 0 HR, 9 SB, 20 BB Acuna showed he can hit for average and draw walks, and his power will develop as he adds to his frame. Anderson Nova, OF (DSL): .355/.465/.476 (.932) 8 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR Nova drew 21 walks in 40 games to help boost his OBP, which is good to see from a 17-year-old. Which players will most likely impact the Twins down the road? Who would you vote as the short-season hitter of the year? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. PREVIOUS WINNERS: 2016 - Lewin Diaz 2017 - Akil Baddoo 2018 - Chris Williams 2019 - Matt Wallner 2021 - Kala’i Rosario View full article

Matt Wallner is having one of the best seasons in the Twins farm system. Now firmly entrenched in the team’s long-term plans, he is getting his first chance at the big leagues. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints The Twins went in two different routes for their first two picks in the 2019 MLB Draft. With the 13th overall pick, the club selected Keoni Cavaco, a high school shortstop that saw his stock rise significantly leading into the draft. Later in the first round, Minnesota selected Matt Wallner, a strong bat with plenty of college experience. Minnesota had originally drafted Wallner in 2016 as a pitcher, but he stayed true to his college commitment at the University of North Dakota. Unfortunately, he learned the UND was eliminating its baseball program. Fortunately, he found his way to Hattiesburg, Mississippi. This decision helped his development as he was a three-year starter at the University of Southern Mississippi. In each college season, he posted an OPS of 1.093 or higher, and he set the school’s career home run mark when he hit 23 homers as a junior. His arm was so good in college that the team used him as a reliever with a fastball in the mid-90s. The Twins followed his progress in college and took him in the Competitive Balance Round in 2019. After signing, the Twins sent Wallner to the Appalachian League. In 53 games, he hit .269/.361/.452 (.813) with 18 doubles, one triple, and six home runs. Minnesota promoted him to Low-A for 12 games to end the year, and he compiled six extra-base hits in limited action. As a power hitter, his swing and miss tendency was evident as he struck out 80 times in 65 games. Twins Daily named him the 2019 Short Season Hitter of the Year after his powerful professional debut. Coming out of the COVID season, Minnesota sent Wallner to High-A, a level he had yet to experience. He was limited to 66 games with Cedar Rapids because he broke his hamate bone. Even in limited action, his power was evident as he hit .264/.350/.508 (.858) with 14 doubles, two triples, and 15 home runs. To compensate for lost time, the Twins decided to send Wallner to the Arizona Fall League following the 2021 season. The AFL is an excellent showcase for some of baseball’s top prospects, but it’s a small sample size of games. That being said, Wallner made the most of his time in Arizona. In nearly 80 plate appearances, he hit .303/.405/.606 (1.011) with two doubles and six home runs. He struck out in 42% of his at-bats, but he still got on base over 40% of the time. Wallner had set himself up for a breakout 2022 campaign. Wallner began the year at Double-A Wichita, where he continued his hot hitting from the fall. In 78 games, he hit .299/.436/.597 (1.033) with 15 doubles, a triple, and 21 home runs. He was selected for the 2022 Futures Game, where he hit a home run on the national stage. Shortly after returning from Los Angeles, the Twins promoted him to St. Paul. Initially, he struggled, but he posted a .907 OPS in August and a 1.043 OPS in September. It was clear that Wallner was ready for his first taste of the big leagues. For the Twins, Wallner has helped his prospect stock significantly this year. His ceiling compares very similarly to Joey Gallo, a powerful slugger with high strikeout rates. Wallner’s strong arm will play well in right field even if he can’t get to every ball because of his size. He has one of the most powerful bats to come through the Twins system in quite some time. If he can cut down on strikeouts, he may become an even more dangerous hitter at baseball’s highest level. Do you think Wallner can reach his ceiling? What impresses you the most about his minor league career? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Strong performances from rookie players have been one of the highlights of the 2022 Twins season. Here are three records that Twins players can break over the season’s final weeks. Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports Even in a season that has gone sour, signs point to a bright future for the Twins. Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, and Jose Miranda have all cemented themselves into the team’s plans for the foreseeable future. The Twins might not be in a position to win the division, but these rookie records are something to watch in the team’s final games. Most Strikeouts in a Season by a Twins Rookie Pitcher Ryan has posted some strong performances over the last couple of weeks, which has helped him move up the rookie strikeout list. Over the weekend, Ryan collected his 138th strikeout, and he moved past Bert Blyleven for second on the team’s strikeout list for a rookie pitcher. The only player left for Ryan to pass is Francisco Liriano, who struck out 144 batters in 2006. Ryan has at least two starts left to break the record, and he has struck out eight or more batters in three of his last four starts. He’s already set a career-high in innings pitched as a professional, so the only way to keep him from the record is if the team shuts him down early. Most Win Probability Added by a Twins Rookie Pitcher (Since 1990) Relief pitcher usage in the 1970s and 1980s differed significantly from the modern game. Many writers use the 1990 season as a cutoff for modern bullpen usage, which helps to put in perspective how good Jhoan Duran has been this season. Duran’s 4.58 WPA is 0.83 points higher than Pat Neshek in 2006. Duran currently ranks as the 6th best AL rookie reliever in baseball history regarding WPA over the last 32 years. He can move into the top-3 by passing Dellin Betances, Neftali Feliz, and Chris Sale over the season’s final weeks. In Twins history, only Doug Corbett’s 1980 rookie campaign will be the only season to accumulate more WPA than Duran. Rookie Hitters to Lead the Twins in RBI Jose Miranda enters play on Monday with 64 RBI, the most for the Twins. His next closest competitors are Carlos Correa (58 RBI), Gio Urshela (57 RBI), and Gary Sanchez (53 RBI). All of those players have played more games than Miranda, which highlights how good he has been in his first taste of the big leagues. The last Twins rookie to lead the team in RBI was Kent Hrbek back in 1982. His 44 RBI since July 1st ranks eighth in the American League in that span. Miranda is also in the top-10 among MLB rookies in SLG (6th), OPS (6th), BA (7th), RBI (3rd), multi-hit games (4th), and home runs (7th). There have been some strong rookie performances in the AL this season, but Miranda has proven he can hit at baseball’s highest level. Other rookie players have also impacted the Twins roster this season. Gilberto Celestino will lead the team in games started in center field while getting on base over 30% of the time. Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill have pitched over 70 innings out of the Twins bullpen. Even top prospects like Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner have impacted the line-up in limited action. Are you surprised by any of the rookie records mentioned above? Which Twins rookie has the brightest future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

As the season winds down, many teams will give prospects their first shot at the big-league level. Ronny Henriquez was part of a significant trade this winter and made his debut earlier this week. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports The Texas Rangers signed Ronny Henriquez as a 17-year-old from the Dominican Republic. He was given a $10,000 signing bonus, which can be seen as a bargain on the international market. His small stature likely drove down his value as he was 5-foot-10 and 150 pounds back in 2017. The Rangers waited until the 2018 season for Henriquez to make his professional debut. In the 2018 Dominican Summer League, Henriquez showed why the Rangers were impressed with him. In 11 starts (58 innings), he posted a 1.55 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP and a 79-to-8 strikeout to walk ratio. He dominated opposing hitters as he held batters to a .466 OPS while striking out in nearly 38% of their at-bats. He’d need to prove those numbers weren’t a fluke as the team moved him stateside for 2019. At Low-A, Henriquez struggled for the first time in his professional career, but it would be tough for any pitcher to live up to his professional debut. In 21 appearances, he posted a 4.50 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and 10.9 K/9. He allowed three runs or fewer in 18 of his 21 appearances. Henriquez was nearly three years younger than the average age of the competition at his level, with all but 10 of his at-bats coming against older batters. Henriquez spent the 2020 COVID season living at the Rangers village dorm in Arizona, which provided access to the team’s spring training facilities. He was allowed to work out with protocols in place, but like many prospects, he didn’t have formal workouts until the team’s fall development camp. Henriquez must have impressed during camp because Texas continued to be aggressive with him in 2021. With a new minor league season, Henriquez began the year at High-A, where he posted a 3.75 ERA in five starts. Then he was promoted to Double-A, where he was 3.7 years younger than the average age of the competition. In 16 appearances (11 starts), he posted a 5.04 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP. He continued to strike out more than ten batters per nine innings, but home runs became an issue as he allowed 1.9 HR/9 after his promotion. There were areas for improvement, but he’d shown enough to be added to the Rangers’ 40-man roster. One of Minnesota’s targets for the 2022 offseason was acquiring a starting shortstop. The Twins dealt Mitch Garver to the Rangers for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Henriquez. During his age-22 season, Henriquez was five years younger than Triple-A competition. He made 14 starts and ten relief appearances with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He only faced a younger batter in one plate appearance this season, but he continued to have 10 K/9. Many consider Henriquez a top-20 prospect in the Twins organization. He has three above-average pitches that he can use to get outs. His fastball can hit in the upper 90s and has high spin rates that help him miss bats up in the zone. Henriquez also uses a slider and a changeup that has improved as he has climbed the minor league ladder. He will likely need to repeat Triple-A next season as the team decides whether or not he can be a starter. What have been your initial impressions of Henriquez? Do you think he fits into the team’s long-term plans? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Major League Baseball changed the rules for next year's draft, which can be good news for teams out of contention. Here's how the Twins can earn one of next year's top draft picks. Image courtesy of Twins Daily Last winter's lockout may not have been all bad for baseball because one new aspect of the collective bargaining agreement is a change to MLB's Draft. Recently, the team with baseball's worst record received the first overall pick and the highest pick in each subsequent round. For many reasons, tanking became a common practice by many organizations looking to rebuild a franchise. The Houston Astros may be the most famous example, as they lost over 100 games in three consecutive seasons before eventually rebuilding into an American League powerhouse. Starting in 2023, the first six picks in each year's draft will be assigned through a draft lottery. All 18 teams that fail to qualify for the postseason will have a chance to move into the top six picks. Odds for each team receiving the number one selection are assigned in reverse order of regular season winning percentage. If a team doesn't receive a lottery selection, they will pick in reverse order of winning percentage from the previous season. The odds of receiving the draft's top pick are as follows: Worst record: 16.5% 2nd-worst record: 16.5% 3rd-worst record: 16.5% 4th: 13.25% 5th: 10% 6th: 7.5% 7th: 5.5% 8th: 3.9% 9th: 2.7% 10th: 1.8% 11th: 1.4% 12th: 1.1% 13th: 0.90% 14th: 0.76% 15th: 0.62% 16th: 0.48% 17th: 0.36% 18th: 0.23% Adding a lottery helps to deter tanking, but other rules were added to deter tanking even further. Teams that receive revenue sharing can't receive a top-six pick for more than two consecutive seasons. On the opposite side, clubs that pay revenue sharing can't get a lottery pick more than one year in a row. Organizations are significantly helped by adding talent at the top of the draft, and Minnesota's system has dropped according to national rankings. The Twins' top two prospects, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, were both top-8 picks in the first round of their respective draft. Lewis looked fantastic in his first taste of the big leagues, and Lee's already seen his stock rise since joining the Twins organization. The more times the Twins can get a top-10 pick, the better their chances of adding impact talent to a farm system that needs a boost. Entering play on Monday, the Twins have a .500 record which translates to baseball's 15th worst record. Minnesota would have a 0.62% chance of earning the first overall pick if the season ended today. Minnesota trails Boston by two games for the 14th spot and San Francisco by 3.5 games for the 13th worst record. Gaining ground on these teams helps increase Minnesota's odds, but it's only a small jump for teams that have been in contention. If you'd like to simulate MLB's draft lottery, Tankathon has updated its site to include a simulation tool for the lottery. My first lottery scored the Twins the third overall pick, but the team never won the top overall pick in over 200 simulations. Minnesota has time to help their odds over the season's final weeks, so it will be interesting to see how the team fares in their first chance at the draft lottery. Do you like MLB's new lottery system? Do you think it will deter teams from tanking in the years ahead? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Spin rate is back up across baseball after a crackdown on sticky substances last season. Are Twins pitchers following this trend or falling behind? Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports Over the last year, MLB has tried to crack down on the substances pitchers use on the ball to generate more spin. When first enforced, there were some heated moments, including Josh Donaldson, a Twins player at the time, calling out pitchers he knew were violating the rule. Initially, baseball saw a decline in spin rate, but those numbers have increased this season. Now, spin rates are nearly back to the same level as before enforcement began. Starting in 2020, Statcast posted an active spin leaderboard, which can also include an active spin %. They offer a longer explanation at their site, but the nuts-and-bolts description is the spin that contributes to movement, including up or down and side to side. Twins Four-Seam Leaderboard (Active Spin %) Tyler Mahle (99.5%), Jorge Lopez (98.1%), Joe Ryan (96.5%), Chris Archer (96.5%) Minnesota’s top-two trade deadline acquisitions rank the best on the team regarding active spin % on their four-seam fastballs. In fact, Mahle sits atop the leaderboard among all MLB pitchers that have thrown a minimum of 1000 pitches. Opponents have posted a .205 BA and a .368 SLG when facing Mahle’s four-seamer. His numbers also include his recent starts, where his shoulder hasn’t allowed him to reach his normal velocity levels. Lopez ranks in the top 25, while Ryan and Archer are in the top 50. Twins Changeup Leaderboard (Active Spin %) Joe Ryan (99.5%), Jorge Lopez (98.3%), Chris Archer (96%), Ryan throws his fastball over 60% of the time, but his changeup might be vital to unlocking his full potential. His changeup leads MLB in active spin among pitchers with a minimum of 1000 pitches thrown. Ryan has thrown his changeup fewer than 300 times this season, but he has increased his percentage from his 2021 big-league appearances. Lopez ranks in the top 35, and Archer is near the backend of the top 75 with his changeup’s active spin. Twins Sinker Leaderboard (Active Spin %) Jorge Lopez (96%), Devin Smeltzer (93.2%), Dylan Bundy (93.1%) Minnesota ranks well in the two pitches mentioned above, but the team doesn’t have a regular sinker ball pitcher with a high active spin %. Lopez cracks the top-30 with his sinker, which is the pitch he throws over 50% of the time. Opponents have posted a .230 BA and a .341 SLG facing his sinker. Smeltzer and Bundy sit just outside the top-40 according to the active spin on their sinkers. According to Baseball Savant, Smeltzer has only thrown ten sinkers this season, so that is hardly a large sample. Bundy’s sinker is his least utilized pitch (7.9%), as he has allowed a .500 SLG so far in 2022. Twins Slider Leaderboard (Active Spin %) Sonny Gray (63.6%), Devin Smeltzer (58.4%), Jorge Lopez (40.7%) Active spin on sliders is much different compared to other pitches because only two pitchers (Rich Hill and Steve Cishek) have an active spin % above 80%. Gray currently sits in fifth place on the MLB leaderboard, with only two AL pitchers ranking higher than him. He throws his slider 11.4% of the time, and batters have a .291 SLG when facing that pitch. Smeltzer ranks just outside the top-10 as he has held opponents to a .214 BA versus his slider. Lopez, who ranks in the top 60, appears on these leaderboards thanks to the amount of spin he generates. He doesn’t tend to get a lot of strikeouts, so he needs spin to coax outs. Are you surprised by any of the names on the leaderboards mentioned above? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Throughout Twins history, there have been mutiple seasons where the team has overcome seemingly insurmountable odds to win the AL Central. Can the current roster find some Minnesota magic and surge back into contention? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Most franchises have seasons a fanbase can remember fondly for how their team fought to the season's final days. The Twins are no stranger to some late-season comebacks, and younger fans may have forgotten about the below-mentioned runs. In September, the current Twins team is facing its largest deficit in the division so far in 2022. Minnesota is running out of games to win the AL Central, but so were these three teams. 2006 Twins (96-66) Farthest Behind: 12.5 Games (May 27) September Deficit: 5 Games with 23 Remaining (September 7) The 2006 Twins only spent four total days in first place, but the club was on the top of the standings when it mattered most. With 96 wins, Minnesota already headed to the postseason, but that didn't take away from the drama. In the season's final series, the Twins lost the first two games against Chicago to make things more interesting. Minnesota won their final game, but fans refused to leave the Metrodome as the division title was still up for grabs. The Tigers and Royals headed to extra-innings, and the fans and players could watch the final innings on the stadium's screens. Detroit entered the day tied with the Twins, but the 100-loss Royals put up a final day fight. Kansas City eventually won in 12 innings, and the Twins stormed the field before taking a victory lap. 2008 Twins (88-75) Farthest Behind: 6 Games (June 10) September Deficit: 2.5 Games with 6 Remaining (September 21) Minnesota made up three games in three days to enter the season's final weekend up a half-game on the White Sox. Unfortunately, the Twins couldn't take advantage of facing the Royals in the season's final series and ended up tied with Chicago. Everything came down to a Game 163 where future Twin Jim Thome hit a home run that accounted for the game's lone run. It was a brutal ending after a thrilling race to the division's top, but the Twins put themselves in a position to win the Central. During the 2022 season, there will be no tie-breaker games, so the Twins need to win the head-to-head match-up with the Guardians. Entering play this weekend, Minnesota has gone 5-9 versus Cleveland, so the Twins need a five-game sweep to take the season series. 2009 Twins (87-76) Farthest Behind: 7 Games (September 6) September Deficit: 7 Games with 26 Remaining(September 6) Minnesota saved their longest winning streak for the season's final month with six straight wins from September 13-19. For the second consecutive year, the Twins ended the season with a series versus the Royals, but this time the Twins needed a sweep to force a decisive tie-breaker game. Detroit and Minnesota played one of the most memorable games in team history as Alexi Casilla's one-out single in the bottom of the 12th inning scored Carlos Gomez. Minnesota went on to be swept by the Yankees, but the Tigers didn't reach the postseason, and fans were left with one final Metrodome memory. Like the seasons mentioned above, Kansas City will play a role in deciding who eventually wins the AL Central. Because of the lockout, Cleveland's final six games are all at home against the Royals. It looks like Kansas City doesn't have much fight in them if the Twins recently concluded series is any indication. Minnesota will likely need KC to win multiple games in the season's final week for more Minnesota magic to unfold. Do you think the Twins still have a chance to win the division? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota's offense hasn't exactly been clicking on all cylinders in recent weeks, while one of the organization's top prospects is hitting well at Triple-A. So, why haven't the Twins called up Matt Wallner? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints It's no secret that Minnesota has struggled in recent months with mounting injuries and replacement-level players trying to keep the Twins in the AL Central race. August was one of Minnesota's worst offensive months of the season, with a .385 SLG and a .701 OPS. Things haven't improved since the calendar turned to September, with the team hitting .251/.307/.377 (.684) entering play this weekend. Many of the team's offensive struggles are tied to the players the Twins have been forced to use in September. The team assumed Trevor Larnach would be back in the line-up, but his recovery has taken longer than expected. Minnesota's current corner outfield options include Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, Gilberto Celestino, Jake Cave, and Kyle Garlick. All of those players can succeed if used in favorable match-ups, but one of the team's best offensive options has been destroying the ball at Triple-A. In his age-24 season, Matt Wallner started the year at Double-A, where he destroyed the ball over his first 78 games. He hit .299/.436/.597 (1.033) while being slightly younger than the average age of the competition in the Texas League. At midseason, he was elected to the Futures Game, and he showcased his power with a home run during the game. Many national outlets started to notice, and he rose on prospect rankings. On their midseason list, MLB Pipeline named Wallner the fifth best prospect in the Twins organization. Shortly after the Futures Game, Minnesota promoted Wallner to Triple-A, and there were a few struggles with the transition. In his first ten games, he went 4-for-38 (.105 BA) with no extra-base hits and 16 strikeouts. From there, he started to find his swing. In 39 games from August 2-September 15, he hit .289/.414/.564 (.978) with 17 doubles, three triples, and six home runs. Wallner was also able to record the first cycle in Saints' history. As a left-handed hitter, the Twins may not have a perfect spot for Wallner to slide into the line-up and get regular playing time. Many of the team's other outfield options are left-handed, but Wallner has found success against righties and lefties this season. During 2022, Wallner has posted a .949 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a .979 OPS against left-handed hurlers. He's also done this while facing older pitchers in nearly 72% of his plate appearances. His bat seems ready for the big-league level, but the team isn't calling him up. Some might argue that the Twins are playing a service time game with Wallner, but the team is in contention, and his bat can help. As a college draftee, Minnesota will have team control over Wallner for the prime of his career, so service time shouldn't be an issue. The team also has players on the bench, like Caleb Hamilton and Billy Hamilton, that aren't getting regular playing time. Wallner can help the Twins, and he should already be on the roster. Do you think the Twins will call up Wallner? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Twins fans have been left frustrated at the end of the last two seasons, but for entirely different reasons. Here are four reasons why the 2022 season is more frustrating than last year. Image courtesy of David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Nearly every baseball fan base will suffer frustration in any given season. Only one team walks away with the World Series title, and even the best clubs go through slides in a 162-game season. Minnesota still has a small window to reach the postseason, but it will take a tremendous turnaround from a very injured roster. So, what makes this season more frustrating than last year? Early-Season Success Most national projections had the Twins as the second-best team in the AL Central going into the season. Minnesota's early success masked the fact that the club was likely heading for a .500 record. Obviously, projections can be taken with a grain of salt, but the Twins' early season success changed the team's outlook. The AL Central was a mess, and it looked like the Twins had an opportunity to capitalize on one of baseball's worst divisions. During the 2021 season, the team was out of playoff contention by the end of the season's first month. While this was frustrating, it was easier for fans not to get wrapped up in the team's poor play for the remainder of the year. Trade Deadline Success and Failure As July ended, the Twins were playing poorly, but they still sat at the top of the AL Central. Even so, the front office went into the trade deadline looking to add pieces to the roster. For the first time under this regime, it felt like the front office was trying to set the Twins up for second-half success and a possible playoff run. On paper, the players acquired at the deadline looked like a success, but it has turned into a failure. Tyler Mahle is injured, and likely won't pitch again in 2022. Jorge Lopez hasn't been a dominant reliever with the Twins while being pushed out of the closer role. Ideally, both players would lead Minnesota to a division title, which adds to fans' frustration when they aren't meeting expectations. Mounting Injuries Last season, it didn't matter if there were injured players because the Twins were out of contention. Every team deals with injuries, but they have been catastrophic for the 2022 Twins. Injuries have become the theme for Minnesota as the club has put more players on the injured list than any other American League team. This has to be frustrating for the coaching staff because it feels like the team is playing without a full deck. It becomes easy to point fingers when a club isn't performing as expected, but the Twins can field a full roster of currently injured players. Not Meeting Injury Timelines Another frustration related to injuries is how frequently the club has been wrong about timelines for players to return. It has been standard practice for teams to provide an injury timeline when a player goes on the IL. Unfortunately, the club has placed numerous players on the IL, but they haven't seemed to be able to get return timelines correct for multiple seasons. Traditionally, Minnesota has been conservative with their provided injury timelines, so one would hope the players could meet those timelines. For fans, this can add to frustration levels because there is an expectation that the team will improve when players get back on the field. Ultimately, the 2022 season has been frustrating for everything involved with the Twins. Fans have every right to be frustrated as the club has squandered an opportunity for a third division title in the last four seasons. Do you think the 2022 season has been more frustrating than 2021? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article