LyleCole

It actually does make a lot of sense. First, this team is mediocre at best. It isn't a real contender and it will not be if the ownership maintains their usual roster budgeting. Second, several of the players trade values are about as high as they will ever be, while the risk of injury or play set back remains. Joe Ryan with a full year of team control will create a huge potential market and bring back significant value. A player like Larnach, whom just about everyone wanted gone before the season starts, has a year of team control left and is hitting better than ever. I would add Buxton to that list because for a real contender he is on a budget salary vs. his value although his salary is a mountain to the Minnesota ownership. THe trade value of these players will never be greater, and all of them will be more than 30 years old next season. Third, players like Larnach etc will cost even more money next season and they are blocking the paths of several prospects. I would add Jeffers here with the drafting of Lackey, to a lesser extent Tilley. So, unless this ownership group has had a change in heart and is willing to spend market rates for free agents and potential trade acquisitions i.e. players wit $20 and even $30 million annual contract value, the absolute best move is to trade these high value players at their peak value to set up the prospects for the next rebuild around Jenkins, Lackey, Rodriguez, Culpepper, etc.

Getting anyone from the draft to be a major league contributor is spectacular. Hopefully we get a few MLB relievers (for the Twins) out of this draft. But that is far from the most likely outcome. I guess I am not as optimistic about Twins scouting or development as you are. And, I am very pessimistic on the Twins medical staff who cannot seem to keep pitchers healthy.

I guess how important is it to gain one of the three wild card playoff spots when this team is not really competitive? My guess is that the Twins will be "buyers" at the trade deadline because that is the mediocrity the ownership strives for.

Every draft brings the joy of the upside. But I see a lot of relievers in this group which lowers their draft value significantly. Comp B Brett Renfrow - I see a lot of Cole Sands profile here. Similar size and pitch selection. I am sure they will start his professional career as a starter. Round 3 Ethan Wachsman Big HS kid with raw stuff that will take a big bonus to lure him away from Wake Forest (I am sure the Twins already know that parameter). He is all the projections of an 18 year old kid. Round 4 Tommy LaPour I think he will also start his career as a starter but I worry about the elbow issue that impacted his 2026 career. IF he can develop his slider and change, he might be able to stay a starter but he lacks control on his slider. Round 5 Steele Murdock I see his future as a reliever and he was a solid closer in the Cape. In the later rounds, I see Bayles and Burns profiling as relief pitchers. But relief pitchers are valuable, especially in the modern game, and you need significant depth there. I think this draft is a much different draft if they select a college arm that profiles as a MLB starter in round 2 instead of doubling up on the catcher position (although I just do not see Tinney as a catcher in professional baseball).

It is the same logic as trading Ryan Jeffers at the deadline, and probably related. If the Twins do not want to sign Ryan Jeffers to a market rate free agent contract, then trade him at the deadline. If they do, then keep him. And if they do not want to sign Ryan Jeffers, then why would they want to sign Joe Ryan to the same. The decision is completely in the hands of Twins ownership. To me it makes zero sense to do it half way, although I will add the caveat that we just drafted a catcher with the 3rd overall pick. But why keep Joe Ryan and have a poor bridge solution at catcher until Lackey comes to the majors, which might be a couple of seasons in the minors and then the transition time as a MLB player. To me you either play the game as an owner of a professional sports franchise putting out the money to make your team a competitor to win the World Series when you have the option. Or, you are building the team to become that competitive team. But if there is a Twins way, it is putting a mediocre at best product on the field.

Their minor league arcs are almost identical. The reason why Kepler repeated the rookie levels was he was a 16 year old European international signing. But if you look at the year 18 curves with WInokur they are very similar TO DATE. Kepler's big development off that curve was as a 22 year old in AA. That set him up for a long major league career. I am hoping for the same with WInokur, although it is never a certainty.

Exactly. If you total his performance at Cedar Rapids A+ as an 18 and 19 year old (2025 and 2026) you get a kid who has hit 27 doubles and 18 home runs in 425 ABs. His batting average and OBP lag, .226 and .282 respectively but a young player's bat to ball skill is the lagging indicator. The power is there and he is certainly a player to be developed. He has only played 2 games at first base in his entire minor league career, 14 total innings. I think the Twins should look to try to get him 20 or so games at 1B each of the following seasons to create some positional diversity.

False, especially with how the Minnesota Twins have treated prospects. If you look at the Cedar Rapids A+ roster, of the 23 players that have played a game this season just three players are younger than Winokur and 15 are older. Of the 25 players who have taken an AB for the Twins AA team, 24 are older. On the Twins AA roster there isn't a pitcher who is less than 2 years older than Brandon. While I am mostly from the more rush through the minors school than most, and the Twins, that does not mean every player should move through the system rapidly. Development is the primary role of the minor league system, and an raw athlete like Winokur is precisely the type of player that can develop over time in the minors and players can improve on the weaknesses that he has. AS with most of these kids, there is a league level where their skills will reach their limits. My prediction will be that WInokur will even repeat AA, which is the most important minor league development level, for a FULL season next year as a 22 year old (then only 18 of the 25 players would be older than him). I think year will be his sink or swim year though. AS far as "statistical" profile, I again disagree. He is an athlete playing multiple positions on the right side of the defensive spectrum who has hit 10+ home runs as a teenager, and in all of his stops in the minors. Of course the strike out rate is a negative factor, but statistically his OBP has been improving as he moves through the levels. Do I think he is a sure shot? Absolutely not. The odds are against just about every one of these kids in the minor league system. As I said, next season which should be a full season in AA (perhaps a late promotion to AAA) will be the telling point. If he shows massive improvement then the potential for a full major league career exists. A more mediocre year probably means a limited major league career at best. The fact is, we have seen it before. I would model Winokur's minor league statistical profile to Max Kepler's in all aspects (great athlete, developing baseball player). Kepler spent a full season in low level short season rookie ball. Then the next, in Rookie Ball at our old station Elizabethton. Then, as a 19 year old he REPEATED rookie league. A full year in A ball. A full year in A+ ball. Then, as a 22 year old at Chattanooga AA, he exploded and that triggered a pretty solid 12 years (and counting) major league baseball career.

The kid still has significant potential and is still very young for his level. He still is a top 10 level prospect in anyone who pays attention book and probably would be across almost every MLB franchise. The Twins are smart in using him at 3B where is more natural roster fit will be evident.

I don't know, those were just picks that did not work out. Jay was rated in the top 10 where the Twins drafted him. I never liked the Cacavo pick. I thought there was too much hype to him, but he was rated #28 on MLB draft prospect and was "moving up" type of prospect. Aaron Sabato was rated 41. But glad they did not do anything fancy too. I still do not think the Tilley pick was smart though.

I don't disagree. Plus those guys usually require a much higher bonus to get them to drop their college commitment as well as take much longer to develop for any return on investment.

Brooks Lee. Has he performed as well as what the expectations were for the 8th overall pick? Have any of the pitchers, including Prielipp really established themselves as players you want to depend on???

Maybe??? Are any of those guys your mention established major league players? Maybe? Idk.

One criticism anyone can make about negative comments about the Twins, and MLB draft in particular, is that it is impossible to amateur scout these players. The Twins scouts have and they have watched many reps of these players. And I will also preface this with the statement that I thought Ryan Jeffers was not a very good pick in his draft. But, I think there is something wrong with the Twins draft models and their strategic decision making and I think two points about the first 4 rounds of the 2026 draft make this clear. First, the 2nd round decision to take Carson Tinney and the 3rd round decision to take high school pitcher Ethan Waschman. First, the Tinney choice. While some believe this is not Aaron Sabato II and that he has premium value as catcher, I question the need to bring in a limited bat to ball power hitter into the system at this time and I discount his positional value significantly because a) he is not very mobile and b) we just drafted a guy who we plan on being the catcher of the future in the previous round along with having another top prospect at the position in A+ who will be competing for PAs against these two college draft picks who need to move up the ladder fast. Tinney has a very high strike out rate and struggles against off speed pitches that often will get worse as he faces better quality pitchers at each minor league level up to the majors. He also did not perform well with the wood bats in the Cape. He only hit .165 with 39 strike outs in 90 total plate appearances. In another thread I commented that there was a scout that stated Tinney's position is "Batters Box" and I think that is what he should be developed as. Work him at 1B 40% of the games, DH 40% of the games, and maybe catch 20% of the games. Shift his defensive spectrum to the lower end and let him concentrate on hitting rather than catching. And while you should take the best player on your board, I simply do not understand how college pitchers do not have enough weight in whatever decision models the Twins are utilizing. Second, the Waschmann choice. This kid could be the next CyYoung, but I just have a problem with the Twins taking a high school pitcher when their development success of high school pitchers has been so limited. They can't keep Charlie Soto, a Comp A selection with a $2.5 million signing healthy. He is in his 3rd year in the organization and has thrown 15.2 innings betweein 2025 and 2026. And Dasan Hill, a Comp B player who signed for an overslot $2 million bonus has completely fallen apart with control in 2026. We hope they both get back on track and certainly they can. But with the pitching staff from top to bottom of the organization being what it is where we snap up every discarded pitcher on the designated for assignment wire and trade for replacement level 35 year old relief pitchers just above the replacement line at best, we need to inject faster moving pieces into the pipeline. Now, I can see drafting a high school pitcher from the top of the board if we would have taken a college pitcher in round 2, but we doubled up on catcher in round 2. I get we took Brett Renfrow, who is a reasonable pick in Comp B round. From what I saw there was a wide range of rankings on Renfrow and he seems to have the same profile as Cole Sands. I am sure that rounds 5-20 will continue the Twins strategy of hitting this level of 4 year college pitching, but I think it is just going to add more of the same. I wish all of these kids, and the organization, good luck. I am not trying to be negative on them, just how the Twins make their selections.

The Twins have drafted catches just about every draft. 2025 Ryan Sprock 8th round traded for a 35 year old reliever 2024 Khadim Diaw 3rd round (AA) Infamous Derek Bender 6th round 2023 none 2022 Andrew Cossetti 11th round (AA) Nate Baez 12th round 2021 Noah Cardenas 8th round (AAA) Pat Winkel 9th round 2020 none - only 5 round covid draft 2019 none 2018 Ryan Jeffers 2nd round (MLB) Charles Mack 6th round Chris Williams 8th round They also have three other catchers in the system: Ricardo Olivare signed Venezuala (AAA) Eduardo Tait acquired in trade (A+) Enrique Jimenez acquired in trade (A+) I dont think the evidence indicates the Twins have neglected the position. It just has been a very uncertain yield on the position since they selected Jeffers. And, although unlike other professional sports draft position is not as big of a factor in selecting when you have a Joe Mauer or even to a lesser extend Ryan Jeffers, the position is not draft critical. If the Twins drafted Carson Tinney as a backup catcher, as you mention (I think somewhat in passing), then I think it is a worse pick than I thought. That is just undershooting the draft value by a lot and you have to hope that someone currently in the system like Eduardo Tait or Khiam Diaw can at least develop into the #2 catcher role behind Lackey. And that is another issue I have with the selection. Again, while positional value really has a lower premium in the MLB draft, if TInney is going to be developed as a catcher there are a lot of younger guys (Tait is just 19 and Enrique Jimenez just 20) that will have some of their development reps removed as they work through the system at almost the same level as Tinney. Lastly, I think the best way to maximize Tinney's development is to move him down, way down, the defensive spectrum. One draft analyst basically noted his position was "Batters Box". Let him concentrate on hitting the baseball instead of putting on the gear or even having to learn a new position.

I don't think Tinney is destined to be a catcher in the Twins organization. He might play some games there, but I think he is a 1B and DH guy going forward. With a lot of DHing. Do we another Aaron Sabato type of guy with the only added premium being some chance behind the plate? Hopefully he can improve his bat to ball skills and use the huge power he has. I would have taken Ben Blair, a RHP from Liberty, who was selected 49th.

I don't think TInney is destined to be a catcher. He might player there some but I suspect they will convert him to first base and he might see a lot of games as the DH.

Solid pick. Like others said, glad they did not get cute. WIth respect to Jeffers, at the trade deadline all that matters is what the Twins ownership want to do with Jeffers and Joe Ryan for that matter in the future. Do they want minimal payroll or are they willing to make market rate free agent offers to these players. It is a simple choice. If the answer to the market rate free agent offer is no, then trading them is a no brainer. It has to be done. And, only the Twins ownership can answer that question.

For what it is worth, this is my mock draft. It is basically compiled the same way as the above because it have very limited independent information. Round 1. It is Roch Cholowsky-Vahn Lackey-Grady Emerson via process of elimination. Don't try anything fancy, daring, or risky. Don't try to save pool money so we can draft a high bonus player in a later round. This is considered a 3 player top tier draft almost by consensus, pick one of the top 3. Round 2 Pick 43 Ben Blair RHP Liberty He seems like a Twins type of starter. There might be a couple of other college pitchers I would pick ahead of him but he seems to have a lot of intriguing pitches and I like his funky delivery, Keith Law ranked #60 Comp B Pick 74 Aiden Robbins OF Texas Law ranked 86. But has MLB has him as #29. One of those multitude of MLB draft prospects with wide range of outside ranking. But, he led the Cap in average, slugging percentage and OPS and I value the wooden bat data. Round 3, Pick 79 Ruger Riojas RHP Texas I like his pitch mix and I think his floor is a decent setup reliever in the majors. He is a senior prospect that can perhaps be signed for somewhat under slot. I understand the OP's methodology, but there is no way the Twins should select high school pitchers in any draft. Our track record of developing HS pitchers that are our original draft picks is mediocre at best. The only current pitcher drafted by the Twins on the roster (of course on disabled list) is Marco Raya. Since 2008 draft, the only drafted HS pitchers that have pitched for the Twins at the MLB level have been the aforementioned Raya (6 innings this season then to the 15 day IL). Jovani Moran drafted 2015. Jose Berrios drafted 2012. Michael Tonkin drafted 2008. They have most certainly have had a college arm preference, but have used high picks on Landon Leach and Blayne Enlow, and I would argue that of the HS pitchers drafted by the Twins most are struggling. Charlie Soto (injured). Dasan HIll. Dylan Questad. From 2017 not a huge sample size it is true, but very limited results is also true.

Buy low, sell high. I agree with the comments that the Twins need to evaluate the return on any trade offer on their core players: Buxton, Ryan, Jeffers. Lesser extend Larnach, Lewis. But, if they do not trade Ryan Jeffers they must be committed to paying the full market rate for the catcher once he reaches free agency. If his market value of a free agent contract is 4 years, $56 million that is what they should commit to being in the market for. If they have no intention of paying him anywhere close to the market rate, hoping for some home town discount or whatever, then he should be heavily markets at the trade deadline. The only minimum issue then is if the offer is more valuable than waiting for any comp pick they might get. But also remember that the QO is more than $23 million so there is a risk that the offer could put a complete hole in their budget. And here is the deal, if they are not willing to pay Jeffers a market rate when he becomes a free agent then why pay Ryan, and to a lesser extend Buxton even though he is under contract. If htey are too cheap to maintain a team, then rebuild again.

For now the starting 5 should be Ryan-Bradley-Prielipp-Matthews-Paredes. Bullpen Gomez-Morris-Raya-The Suck and whatever other arms they scrounge up. NOthing against Taylor Rogers, but one way or another he should be off the roster by the trade deadline. Same with Banda. And unless he turns around, Orze.

I hope for the best, but sometimes the expectations generated by fans get out of hand.

Yet his career minor league ERA is 4.50 and he is on his 4th organization in not even a full 3 seasons in professional baseball in North America. His AAA ERA over a span of three seasons is 3.46, almost a full run higher. I hope he is the next Carl Willis, but the evidence to base it on is lacking.

Based on? His career minor league 4.50 ERA? He was a dominant closer for a couple of his seasons in the Korean baseball league, but he was a not dominant closer in most of his seasons in Korea. He has not been dominant in minor league baseball either. I hope he is a great pitcher. But this constant stream of cast offs, including this one from the fn Detroit Tigers has to be discouraging.

Yes, the Twins have made another amazing acquisition trading Cash Consideration. We acquired We Suk Now, or something like that from Detroit.