Kenny Powers

I mean...even with a very slow start to this season, he still holds a .813 career OPS at the MLB level. Granted, it's only 295 ABs. But, my point is you have to give some of these young guys a little leash. He's only had 25 ABs so far this season. Once he gets to 100 ABs, then maybe I'll start to worry more. But as of now, literally a couple good games will completely turnaround his stats, so - not a big deal IMO. Buxton, Kepler, Farmer, Santana, Castro all need to get their bats going too.

It's been touched on already many times, but the Twins really did a good job of loading up on bullpen guys at AAA. Ryan Jensen, Diego Castillo, Scott Blewitt, Hobie Harris, Jeff Brigham, Matt Bowman, Austin Schulfer...that's seven guys who throw 95+. Now, I'm not saying they are all going to be great. But, at least we have a stockpile of hard throwing guys that we can cycle through the waiver wire/back to AAA. And with bullpen guys, you just never know year to year (or even month to month) what you are going to get, so it's nice to have options.

Great read/insight. I was wondering to myself how often this occurs and how long to recover. In fact, I was just out on my morning run and thinking...if we took 100 random people from this forum (regardless of age or physical conditioning) and had them run full speed from 1st to third - how many would get injured? It just seemed crazy to me that a young athlete like Lewis who clearly trains year-round would come up lame just running the bases. But your article shed some light on that, so I'll just dismiss as another unfortunately set back to the Royce Lewis experience. Hopefully he's back in short order. And this is opportunity for the next man up - who ever that might be.

Spring games are over. I know Spring Stats don't mean much. But we all still look at them because what else is there to look at until the real games start? I found these three guys who put up impressive Spring numbers and I didn't know much about any of them: 1.) RHP - Scott Blewett: This Spring he pitched 6.1 innings with 9Ks, 2.84 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. His fastest pitch topped out at 98.1 mph. He is soon to be 28 years old. Looks like he spent most his career as starter. Could this be the next Brock Stewart? 2.) 2B - Jay Harry: This Spring he had 5 hits in 9 ABs which is good enough for a .556 Ave and 1.223 OPS. He's only 21. We drafted him last year as a SS and finished his first year (two levels) with a .339 BA and .902 OPS. Yet, he's not on any prospect lists I've seen. 3.) CF - Willie Joe Garry: This Spring he had 5 hits in 14 ABs which was good enough for a .357 BA and .795 OPS. He's soon to be 24 and a 2018 draft pick. His minor numbers are not impressive over all. But he did flash after being promoted to AA last year (.813 OPS in 106 ABs) It will be fun for me to follow these guys to see if this was false hope or possibly the start of a break out season?

At least Larnach (.850 OPS) and Miranda (.816 OPS) have had success through AAA. Both certainly remain viable options with value. But it's no mystery why Balazovic has not only fallen off the prospect lists - but off the roster completely. He did ok in AA (not great - but ok) but then has been shelled in AAA: 162 innings, 6.22 ERA and 1.82 WHIP over the last two years at AAA. I saw him pitch there a couple times and watched lots of hard hit balls. I was surprised he remained on the prospect lists for the last two years. I guess initial scouting/reputation carry a lot of weight for making those lists. However, the production never matched the hype for him once he got past A ball.

Good read. I concentrated on the pitching. For me, it's always great to reconcile real velocity vs. what the scouting reports have been telling me. For this game, I saw: Festa hit 96.8 mph. This kid sure seems like a lock to help the big club this season Festa and Varland give us two high end velocity starters. But both could have great careers as bullpen arms too if the starter thing doesn't work out. Soto hit 98.5 mph. Only 18 years old. This kid will be fun to watch this year. Looks like they gotta work on his control though. Juan Mendez also hit 98.5 mph. I never heard of this guy before. He's already 25 years old and has been stuck in A ball the last two years (limited success). Control seems to be an issue for him as well. Alejandro Crisostomo hit 95.6 mph. Another guy I didn't hear much about. Looks like we signed him as a free agent last year. Still only 23 years old with only 30 career innings pitched in the minors. Miquel Rodriguez hit 95.7 mph. He's 25 years old. He started in A+ last year before being promoted to AA. Based on stats, he'll probably have to go back to AA to start this season. I know velocity isn't the end all. But it's always fun rooting for the big arms and hoping they can find enough control to be successful.

That's my feeling as well. I'm intrigued by some of the high velocity, non-roster arms. It's amazing we were able to pluck a Brock Stewart out of the scrap heap last year. Maybe they can strike gold again with someone like Duarte or Staumont.

Yep. According to what I found, his best pitch so far was actually hit 94.8 mph. I used 95 mph as my cut off for the list I posted, but 94.8 mph is certainly eye opening for him based on what we saw last season. Although, it's fair to point out the obvious which is that all of these guys will settle into an average velocity a few ticks below what we see on the top end. Still - it's fun (at least for me) to see what they are capable of on the high side. And velocity can often be an indicator of health - so I'm happy to see so many guys hitting over 95 mph.

I've been tracking all our pitchers velocities this Spring and thought I'd share some data in case others are interested. Notes/Disclaimers: 1.) All data came from MLB Game Day summaries 2.) Speed shown is the fastest pitch I found for each guy in any of of their Spring outings so far. 3.) There was not any speed detail available on some days/games. So I don't have info on two guys (Blewett and Boushley). 4.) Because almost 40 guys have thrown so far, I'll only list the high end guys in this post which I define as over 95 mph. 5.) Obviously - this list can/will change. Example, I just saw Jeff Brigham hit 96.2 today and he was below 95 in his other appearances. So here they are in descending order: 101.1 Jhoan Duran 98.9 Jorge Alcala 98.3 Louie Varland 98.3 Brock Stewart 97.5 Griffin Jax 96.8 Ryan Jensen 96.7 Daniel Duarte 96.7 Ronny Henriquez 96.2 Jeff Brigham 96.1 HobieHarris 96.1 David Festa 96.0 AustinSchulfer 95.7 Josh Staumont 95.6 Pablo López 95.6 Cole Sands 95.3 Chris Paddack 95.2 BeauBurrows For me, maybe only a few surprises. I read reports Canterino was hitting 95, but I didn't find mph detail for that game. He pitched again more recently and I found he hitting low 90's that game. (Not saying the reports of him hitting 95 are wrong - just didn't see it on his available log info I have access to see). Regardless - I take this info as showing we have a lot of good (and healthy) arms to start the year.

I'm keeping an eye on Ronny Henriquez. He's still only 23. He's been listed as a top prospect for the last five years. I saw he hit 96.7 mph in one of his spring games this year. He's generated a lot of strikeouts in his minor league career (over 10 K/9) and most of that was as a starter. He's one of many interesting arms they will have at AAA. Don't sleep on him just yet.

Ahhh. I'm a bad fan. I did not know that. Probably explains how they were able to get him off roster and through waivers last year. Thank you for that info.

Agreed. Still...the season prior he had 18 walks in 40 innings which was good enough for 2.21 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Relievers will drive you crazy with their ups and downs which is why I HATE trading for them (see Jorge Lopez, Dylan Floro etc.) Regardless, Moron hasn't thrown yet this Spring, so I'm very curious to see if he's healthy again.

Good read. We are going to have some good Left handed options this year - which is good because Thielbar is now 37 years old....I'm not sure how long he's going to hold up. Beyond Headrick, I like this Steven Okert they picked up. He's not young (32), but has had a pretty successful career and seems to have decent velocity. But the guy I'm really curious to see pitch this spring is Jovani Moran. He played himself off the roster last year. But he's still only 26 and really looked like a good left handed arm until he had a down year last season. If he's healthy, I'd expect him to make his way back on the roster at some point. It's been mentioned many times on here, but we really seem to have a lot of interesting bullpen options this year.

Times have changed and we probably need to redefine what a successful season looks like for a starting pitcher. It's not 200 innings anymore. Here are the number of pitchers who hit 200 innings the last two years: 2023 - 5 2022 - 8 Pablo came in at 194 last year and Sonny 184 - both would be considered very good seasons by me.

Yes - we have no idea how Cincinnati viewed Balazovic. I was mainly illustrating how quickly guys can lose value. It looks like Petty was traded in March of 2022. Balazovic still was looked at pretty highly back then...according to what I can find, he was still on a lot of prospect lists in 2022 including: #85 Baseball America https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects_mlb/2022~BA/ #78 Baseball Prospectus https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/72047/2022-prospects-the-top-101/ And even still ranked high on this site as well: Two years later....not only has he dropped off the prospect lists, but he's dropped off the roster. And gone unclaimed by every team in MLB. Again - hindsight is always perfect. I just find it super interesting how much we value prospects (myself included). It's always interesting for me to go back an look at old "top prospect lists" and wonder what we could have gotten in return for some of the busts.

It was a heck of draft. I'm fine dealing prospects (you can't hold onto all of them forever). It's all about trying to hold onto the good ones and trading away the future duds. Too bad there isn't a crystal ball in real life. Example, what if we had dealt Jordan Balazovic (ranked #3 in Baseball America team prospects in 2022) instead of Petty who was ranked #7.....

Great read and timely article as we try to picture the final roster. I agree with the author's sentiments that the roster may start out being constructed with a couple "out of option" guys that may or may not be the best player. It seems to be a strategy. Let the 30 year old out of option guy sink or swim as your first layer of depth. If they sink, you can likely expose them to waivers with little risk and get them to AAA. In the meantime, let the young guys earn their way out of AAA by showing who's ready for call ups. I'll be shocked if all five of these guys make it the full year on the roster: Anthony DeSclafani Jay Jackson Josh Staumont Justin Topa Zack Weiss

Any velocity reports on Canterino? He's a forgotten guy, but that guy has impressive minor league results: 85 innings, 130 Ks, 1.48 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. If he's healthy, he is a guy that can be a factor this year. Edit: I found a write up on the Twins website that states he was hitting 95 mph. I definitely see him as a bullpen option later this year as they will likely need to limit his innings. https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/matt-canterino-pitches-in-first-twins-game-since-2022

Yup. And even more interesting (to me anyway)... not only are those prospects all gone, so are the guys we got for them (Gray, Mahle, Lopez).

Good read. I was watching the Gamecast pitch mph on MLB.com and was immediately surprised at his increased velo. I saw 94.5 mph pop up and thought it was a mistake - but then hit 94.3 on the next batter. He is still only 23. SWR and Canterino are going to be guys I'm going to be keeping an eye on this Spring. I love this time of year!

It's all semantics, but I believe there are some generally accepted bench marks. First, it's based on level of competition. A 23 year old in AAA is "young". A 23 year old in rookie ball is not. A lot of people will reference the average age per level to add perspective when talking about a player which I always appreciate. Second, (I see other have already touched on this) there is the experience factor. Fair or not, a 22 year old drafted out of college and makes it to the majors in two years at age 24 seems "younger" than another 24 year old that spent 8 years in the minors (like 16 year old that was drafted out of the Dominican). That's also why guys like Ober and Ryan seem "young" because they only have a couple seasons under their belt at the big league level compared to guys like Correa and Buxton. And yes, as others have noted, I think there are bench marks on the other side too. I think most would say over 35 is "older" for a ballplayer with the assumption that players that age are in the decline. But then you have guys like Thielbar who have their best seasons at age 34, 35 and 36. Go figure.

I was thinking about the loss of value this morning too. Example, I wonder if back in 2022 we could have shipped Balazovic to the Reds for Sonny Gray instead of Chase Petty? I have no idea if that would have flown or not and obviously hindsight is always wonderful. But yeah - it's crazy to think how much perceived value prospects have...until they don't.

It's interesting....part of me sort of feels like you would want to at least see Balazovic throw this spring before making such a move. He's been in the system for 7 years and has consistently been listed as a top prospect including last season #17 by Baseball America and #21 MLB Pipeline. He's still only 25. But...on the other side of the coin, his actual production hasn't lived up to the hype. His AAA numbers are: 116 innings, 6.58 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. I personally saw him pitch in a couple games at St. Paul. I remember wishing I had one of those whiplash neck collars after watching several hard hit long balls. He had his shot. I'm glad they are not going to just carry him and plug up a roster spot. Nothing wrong with making guys earn their spots and Balazovic didn't do enough to keep his.

I see others have already touched on this before me, but you just can't trust most bullpen arms year over year. Guys like Jorge Lopez and Dylan Floro seemed like good bullpen arms when we got them, but struggled here. Same with in-house guys like Jovani Moran who went from really solid young arm to off the roster in one season. Then on the other end, you pull a 30 year old guy like Brock Stewart out of no where and he becomes Mariano Rivera. I assume injuries have a lot to do with the volatility as these guys try to pitch through or come back from injuries. Bottom line, we won't know what we have until they start ramping up in Spring Training. Then we see who's healthy and throwing strikes. It seems like every year when pitchers report we learn that someone we are counting on isn't healthy. It's just part of the game unfortunately.

I feel better about the trade after I looked at the Twins website today. They slotted Gonzalez as #4 in their top 30 prospects. And I see Bowen slotted at #27. I didn't expect Bowen to be ranked that high, so I'm now fine with the return. I still don't think much of the two MLB arms they threw in, but they will both contribute depth. And who knows - maybe one or both will surprise me. Regardless, knowing we added two guys to our top 30 prospects for Polanco makes the deal look ok to me. It actually in the ballpark to what we got for Berrios in his prime (Simeon Woods-Richardson and Austin Martin). That's kinda crazy to think about as I would certainly expect Berrios in his prime to bring back way more than a declining Polanco. (And yes, I'm aware that SWR and Martin were both ranked much higher at the time of the trade - I'm just drawing a parallel of getting two top prospects back for a vet player.)