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Should the Twins Pursue Wil Myers?
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, their lineup is definitely electric and I predict that will sustain itself to a degree, but the Reds rotation is far worse than the Twins lineup. Now, if the Reds were to acquire Lucas Giolito or Shane Bieber while having Greene and Lodolo healthy, I do think the Reds would cement themselves as the best team in the NL Central. Personally, I hope they win the NL Central because they are a fun and exciting team to watch and keep up with.- 48 replies
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Should the Twins Pursue Wil Myers?
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Do you think the fact that he is right-handed makes him more rosterable than Kepler or Gallo?- 48 replies
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Should the Twins Pursue Wil Myers?
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Guthrie is an intriguing player. He has performed really well in Triple-A, plus he is younger than Myers. The reason I value Myers more at this very moment is because of his pedigree and what he was able to do with the Padres the last seven-or-so years. With that being said, Guthrie still has options which adds a great amount of value. I would be content with the Twins adding Myers or Guthrie.- 48 replies
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Should the Twins Pursue Wil Myers?
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not a day goes by where I don't think about what this team would look like if they still had Spencer Steer not to mention Christian Encarnacion-Strand waiting at Triple-A. I agree though, I just think Myers could be the right-handed hitting corner outfielder/first baseman this Twins team needs. Also, I think Myers is better option than Kyle Garlick at this very moment.- 48 replies
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With right-handed hitting corner outfielders being a relatively non-existent aspect of the 26-man roster, should the Twins pursue the recently designated for assignment right-handed hitting Wil Myers? Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports During the off-season, the Twins were believed to be interested in signing a right-handed hitting corner outfielder. Some of the names floated around were Andrew McCutchen, Adam Duvall, Trey Mancini, and A.J. Pollock. Ultimately the Twins didn't sign any of the right-handed hitting outfielders mentioned and instead traded for Michael A. Taylor, who would become the everyday center fielder, and re-signed Kyle Garlick, who was recently designated for assignment. With the Twins having a surplus of left-handed hitting corner outfielders in Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, and Joey Gallo, as well as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner ready to be called up from the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, would it make sense to add the right-handed hitting Myers to the mix while potentially cutting ties with a left-handed hitting corner outfielder? Let's take a look. Myers, who signed a one-year $7.5 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds this year, was designated for assignment on June 20 after returning from a rehab assignment that stemmed back to Myers being placed on the 10-day IL on May 26 with a kidney stone. Before his two-or-so-month stint with the Reds, Myers had played with the Padres from 2015-2022, where he hit .254/.330/.451 (.781) with 134 home runs over those seven years. Myers's best season with the Padres came in 2016 when he hit .259/.336/.461 (.797) with 28 home runs and 28 stolen bases over 157 games and 676 plate appearances. In 2016, Myers also mustered a wRC+ of 114 and an fWAR of 3.4, both above league average. Despite being an above-average player roughly seven years ago, that has not been the case for Myers this season. Through 141 plate appearances with the Reds this year, Myers hit just .189/.257/.283 (.540) with a wRC+ of 42 and an fWAR of -0.8. Now, many of you might be saying to yourselves, "Wow, you managed to find a corner outfielder with worse numbers than Max Kepler in 2023," or "Yes, what this Twins team needs is another position player who can't hit," but I think Myers has more to offer, especially given who the Twins have been deploying in left and right field as of late. Just last season, Myers hit .261/.315/.398 (.713) with a wRC+ of 104 and an fWAR of 1.0 while also playing an integral role in helping the Padres make their first National League Championship Series appearance since 1998. Myers also showed versatility by playing both corner outfield spots, first base, and designated hitter. Despite not performing well with the Reds this year in a small sample size, it is rational to think that Myers still can contribute to a team with playoff aspirations, as he did just a season ago. Myers also fits a role this Twins team needs quite desperately. Myers would fit in very well when the Twins deploy their right-handed hitting platoon when they face left-handed hitting pitchers. Throughout his career, Myers has hit .252/.346/.446 (.793) against left-handed pitchers. Adding Myers to the platoon would mean that the Twins could subtract one of Gallo, Kepler, or Willi Castro from playing one of the corner outfield positions, or they could have Myers play first base, which means Donovan Solano could play second base, where he is a better defender than Edouard Julien. Myers also has fared quite well against right-handed hitters. Throughout his career, Myers has hit .252/.319/.433 (.752), which is similar to what left-handed hitting Kepler has hit against right-handed hitters over his career, which is .237/.325/.452 (.778), and the left-handed hitting Gallo has hit, which is .198/.331/.473 (.804). If the Twins did acquire Myers, it would be essential to identify who would likely be leaving if the Twins did claim Myers off of waivers or sign him if he clears them. Ideally, it would be the profoundly slumping Kepler who is hitting .192/.266/.384 (.650) with a wRC+ of 79 and an fWAR of 0.1 through 47 games played. But, as this front office has evidenced time and time again, the idea of designating Kepler for assignment feels like an impossibility, but could the temptation of adding the right-handed hitting Myers to the outfield mix be what it takes for the Twins to cut ties with Kepler? I doubt it. Even though Kepler is unlikely to be the player to go, that doesn't mean the idea of adding Myers to the Twins is improbable. An easy move the Twins could make is optioning the recently regressing Castro, who has cooled off over his last ten games, hitting just .231 with six hits, one walk, two stolen bases, and eight strikeouts, to Triple-A St. Paul. No matter the corresponding transaction, the Twins would benefit from adding the versatile right-handed hitting Myers to their 26-man roster. Remember, if the Twins claimed Myers, they would owe him approximately $3 million of his $6 million 2023 salary. They would also get charged a $500,000 trade bonus (or negotiate that with the Reds), and they would have to give him $1.5 million after the season to buyout the option for 2024. If they don't claim him, and he passes through waivers, Myers would become a free agent and be able to sign with any of the 30 MLB teams for the prorated league minimum, which is around $720,000. Do you think the Twins should add Wil Myers? If so, what should the corresponding roster move be? View full article
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During the off-season, the Twins were believed to be interested in signing a right-handed hitting corner outfielder. Some of the names floated around were Andrew McCutchen, Adam Duvall, Trey Mancini, and A.J. Pollock. Ultimately the Twins didn't sign any of the right-handed hitting outfielders mentioned and instead traded for Michael A. Taylor, who would become the everyday center fielder, and re-signed Kyle Garlick, who was recently designated for assignment. With the Twins having a surplus of left-handed hitting corner outfielders in Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, and Joey Gallo, as well as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner ready to be called up from the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, would it make sense to add the right-handed hitting Myers to the mix while potentially cutting ties with a left-handed hitting corner outfielder? Let's take a look. Myers, who signed a one-year $7.5 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds this year, was designated for assignment on June 20 after returning from a rehab assignment that stemmed back to Myers being placed on the 10-day IL on May 26 with a kidney stone. Before his two-or-so-month stint with the Reds, Myers had played with the Padres from 2015-2022, where he hit .254/.330/.451 (.781) with 134 home runs over those seven years. Myers's best season with the Padres came in 2016 when he hit .259/.336/.461 (.797) with 28 home runs and 28 stolen bases over 157 games and 676 plate appearances. In 2016, Myers also mustered a wRC+ of 114 and an fWAR of 3.4, both above league average. Despite being an above-average player roughly seven years ago, that has not been the case for Myers this season. Through 141 plate appearances with the Reds this year, Myers hit just .189/.257/.283 (.540) with a wRC+ of 42 and an fWAR of -0.8. Now, many of you might be saying to yourselves, "Wow, you managed to find a corner outfielder with worse numbers than Max Kepler in 2023," or "Yes, what this Twins team needs is another position player who can't hit," but I think Myers has more to offer, especially given who the Twins have been deploying in left and right field as of late. Just last season, Myers hit .261/.315/.398 (.713) with a wRC+ of 104 and an fWAR of 1.0 while also playing an integral role in helping the Padres make their first National League Championship Series appearance since 1998. Myers also showed versatility by playing both corner outfield spots, first base, and designated hitter. Despite not performing well with the Reds this year in a small sample size, it is rational to think that Myers still can contribute to a team with playoff aspirations, as he did just a season ago. Myers also fits a role this Twins team needs quite desperately. Myers would fit in very well when the Twins deploy their right-handed hitting platoon when they face left-handed hitting pitchers. Throughout his career, Myers has hit .252/.346/.446 (.793) against left-handed pitchers. Adding Myers to the platoon would mean that the Twins could subtract one of Gallo, Kepler, or Willi Castro from playing one of the corner outfield positions, or they could have Myers play first base, which means Donovan Solano could play second base, where he is a better defender than Edouard Julien. Myers also has fared quite well against right-handed hitters. Throughout his career, Myers has hit .252/.319/.433 (.752), which is similar to what left-handed hitting Kepler has hit against right-handed hitters over his career, which is .237/.325/.452 (.778), and the left-handed hitting Gallo has hit, which is .198/.331/.473 (.804). If the Twins did acquire Myers, it would be essential to identify who would likely be leaving if the Twins did claim Myers off of waivers or sign him if he clears them. Ideally, it would be the profoundly slumping Kepler who is hitting .192/.266/.384 (.650) with a wRC+ of 79 and an fWAR of 0.1 through 47 games played. But, as this front office has evidenced time and time again, the idea of designating Kepler for assignment feels like an impossibility, but could the temptation of adding the right-handed hitting Myers to the outfield mix be what it takes for the Twins to cut ties with Kepler? I doubt it. Even though Kepler is unlikely to be the player to go, that doesn't mean the idea of adding Myers to the Twins is improbable. An easy move the Twins could make is optioning the recently regressing Castro, who has cooled off over his last ten games, hitting just .231 with six hits, one walk, two stolen bases, and eight strikeouts, to Triple-A St. Paul. No matter the corresponding transaction, the Twins would benefit from adding the versatile right-handed hitting Myers to their 26-man roster. Remember, if the Twins claimed Myers, they would owe him approximately $3 million of his $6 million 2023 salary. They would also get charged a $500,000 trade bonus (or negotiate that with the Reds), and they would have to give him $1.5 million after the season to buyout the option for 2024. If they don't claim him, and he passes through waivers, Myers would become a free agent and be able to sign with any of the 30 MLB teams for the prorated league minimum, which is around $720,000. Do you think the Twins should add Wil Myers? If so, what should the corresponding roster move be?
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Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think I am more so trying to approach this through how I think the Twins operate more than anything. To me, it feels likes whenever one of their better relievers is used in a high-leverage spot that reliever is then unavailable for the next game. For example, when Stewart, Jax, and Duran were used in high-leverage spots during the first two games of the most recent three game series against the Blue Jays in Toronto, they were then unavailable for the third game of the series, which is why Moran, De León, Winder, Pagán, and Lopez were the only available relief options for that game. Evidently, the Twins blew a two run lead in the eighth inning when Pagán let up a three run home run to Cavan Biggio. What I am trying to say is that I don't think the Twins are going to over-tax their starters and short relievers in the name of having an abundance of stretch relievers. Plus, the pitchers who are short relief options like De León, Winder, Balazovic, Headrick, Woods Richardson, and so on don't have the Twins trust yet, so I think the Twins would go to almost every length imaginable to not use them in high-leverage spots. I don't think the fact that high-leverage relievers can't be used in back-to-back games means that they aren't good enough to be the best relievers on the team, I just think it means that you can't tax out your best relievers in a 162 game season. -
Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The fact that Varland was able to skyrocket through the Twins minor league system so fast is incredible and I admire him for it, but it feels like he has reached a roadblock, and this roadblock is probably the hardest one he has faced yet. Will he be able to overcome it? I'm not sure, but I think he needs to work on crafting the skills needed to overcome it in Triple-A rather than with the Twins for the time being. If Maeda struggles or gets injured again, then Varland should be the pitcher the Twins choose to call-up, although if the Twins decided it was going to be Headrick I wouldn't necessarily disagree with them. -
Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Well Moran has gotten put in high-leverage spots multiple times this season and Pagán was most recently put in a high-leverage spot against the Blue Jays where he imploded and gave up a three run home run to Cavan Biggio. What I am trying to say is that if you only have five short relievers they are all going to be forced in high-leverage spots. For example, say Joe Ryan starts a game and pitches six innings and then Stewart pitches the seventh, Jax pitches the eighth, and then Duran closes the game out in the ninth. If this occurred, then it would be safe to assume that Stewart, Jax, and Duran would be unavailable for the next game. Now, in the next game say, hypothetically, Bailey Ober pitches seven innings and he gets pulled after the seventh with a one-run lead. If this situation arose, then one of Moran or Pagán would be forced to pitch in the eighth inning of a one-run game, which is obviously a high-leverage situation. The Twins don't have many other options, but it would be nice to have a short reliever like Kody Funderburk or Oliver Ortega available as short relievers rather than having a bunch of stretch relievers who won't be able to help you in high-leverage situations unless you want to risk using them as short relievers. It is a messy situation, but I think the Twins need to roster at least six short relievers as they can't afford to depend solely on Moran or Pagán being second tier high-leverage relievers. -
Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
So, if you have a nine man bullpen with four long relievers, then that means that all five short relievers would have to take on high-leverage roles. I'd be confident with Duran, Jax, and Stewart having high-leverage roles, which they already have, but I am less confident with Moran and am to the nth degree not confident in Pagán having a high-leverage role, but I like your idea nonetheless. Would you be comfortable with these five relievers having high-leverage roles for roughly 18 more games? -
Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is a really good point @ashbury. It feels like the number five starter spot either goes to a young prospect trying to make it in the big leagues (i.e., Varland) or a veteran pitcher trying to stick around (i.e., Matt Shoemaker and Chris Archer of years past). Luckily, the Twins have the ability to option Varland rather than DFAing him and I agree that tinkering with both his approach at the Triple-A level is probably in the best of interests for the Twins and Varland. -
Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, I share the same concern over Maeda not being able to get deeper than five innings into starts as well as the fact that Gray hasn't been able to get deep into starts of late either. Having a six man rotation would mean that the Twins would only have a seven man bullpen which would lead to the bullpen then being taxed since they would likely no longer have a stretch reliever. The Twins are in a tough spot right now and hopefully their starting pitching can stay strong, as that is this team's lone strength. -
Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree! It's similar to when pitchers make adjustment towards young hitters and then those young hitter begin to struggle. Many times, like in the case of Jose Miranda, for example, they need to be sent down to Triple-A to work on their counter-adjustments, but sometimes they are able to power through and work on those adjustments at the big league level like, say, Alex Kirilloff. Unfortunately, I don't think Varland has been able to make adequate counter-adjustments, so a demotion to Triple-A St. Paul is probably in his and the Twins best interest. -
Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like the idea of a six man rotation, but I don't know if having Varland make a start every six-or-so days is in the best interest of the Twins at the moment. I wonder if adding Maeda to the rotation and then having a bullpen day where De León, Headrick, and Balazovic pitch two innings each might be a better option than keeping a struggling Varland in the rotation. -
Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem
Cody Schoenmann replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree. I expect the move will be announced within the next 2-3 days after Maeda meets with the Falvey, Baldelli, & Co. It's unfortunate that Varland has regressed so sharply after his strong five game stretch, but it appears that he definitely needs to undergo refining in Triple-A. -
When Twins starting pitcher Tyler Mahle was placed on the 15-day IL with a posterior impingement and flexor pronator strain in his pitching elbow on May 3, the Twins elected to recall right-handed pitching prospect Louie Varland from the Triple-A St. Paul Saints. Varland, who made a spot start for the Twins earlier in the season against the New York Yankees on April 14, where he threw six innings, giving up three earned runs on six hits and one walk while striking out eight hitters, was finally getting his first extended look as a member of the Twins rotation. Varland's extended look started on a not-so-hot note when he gave up four earned runs on seven hits while giving up two walks and striking out six through 4 2/3 innings pitched against the White Sox on May 3. Varland struggled initially, but things turned around quickly. Over Varland's next five starts, spanning from May 9 through May 31, Varland pitched a combined 30 1/3 innings while giving up only nine earned runs, striking out 25 hitters, and walking only five. Varland also pitched to a combined BABIP of just .246, which is lower than the league average currently sitting at .296, a Left On Base % (LOB%) of 92.5%, which is 20.74% higher than the league average, and an ERA of just 2.77, which is 1.52 points lower than league average. During that five-game stretch, Varland was incredible. Unfortunately, Varland has struggled over his last three starts against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 6, the Tampa Bay Rays on June 11, and the Detroit Tigers on June 18 (Happy Father's Day!). Through this three-game stretch, Varland has given up 21 hits, eight walks, five home runs, and 17 earned runs over 15 innings pitched. Varland also mustered a LOB% of 51.2%, which is 41.3% less than what he earned over his previous five games, an ERA of 8.64, which is 5.87 points higher than the previous five games, and a Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio (HR/FB) of 19.45%, which is 7.25% higher than league average and 6.95% higher than what he generated over his previous five games. Varland's promising start to his first opportunity as a full-time starting rotation member has since been dampened by three rough outings. It is important not to overreact and make critical judgments over relatively small sample sizes. Still, some serious red flags have been present all season for Varland, and the most significant red flag in Varland's game is the inability to limit home runs. Varland has a home run problem. There is no way around it. Through 51 2/3 innings pitched, Varland has given up an HR/9 of 2.09, which is 0.92 points higher than the league average of 1.17, and an HR/FB of 21.1%, which is 8.9% higher than the league average. To add context, Fangraphs classifies an HR/FB for pitchers of 13.0% as awful, so, in a sense, Varland's HR/FB ratio of 21.1% is "Below Awful." I don't mean to slander Varland, and I am optimistic that he can still be a key member of future Twins rotations alongside Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Bailey Ober. Still, his inability to limit home runs is very real and very concerning. Why is Varland struggling with giving up home runs? Let's take a deeper look. First, it is essential to understand what it looks like when things are going well for Varland on the mound. Here is an example. In this sequence, which shows only two pitches, Varland strikes out Astros first baseman/designated hitter José Abreu on a slider low and outside. Varland's slider begins looking like it is going toward the inside half of the plate but then quickly jumps out to the outer half, confusing right-handed hitters like Abreu. The reason Varland's slider tends to be so effective, like in the video example above, is because his off-speed pitches come from the same arm slot as his fastball. Varland's average arm slot when he throws fastballs comes in at 5.5 feet, while his average arm slot for when he throws sliders comes in at 5.4 feet, virtually the exact same, especially to the human eye. On average, Varland's slider moves 11 inches horizontally from right-handed hitters and drops 40 inches, which is impressive considering the league average for right-handed pitchers who throw sliders horizontal movement is six inches along with 36 inches in drop. In the next at-bat shown in the video example, Varland strikes out Astros outfielder Jake Meyers looking on a fastball high and outside. Varland's fastball, like most pitchers, works best when he is working it on the outside edges of the zone both vertically and horizontally. In this specific example, Varland strikes out Meyers by being able to pinpoint his fastball on the upper left-hand edge of the strike zone. Varland's unique wind-up, which looks like his arm is slinging the ball toward the plate, reminiscent of a trebuchet or a catapult, helps him confuse hitters as, when he is effective, his off-speed pitches and fastball come from the same unique arm slot, making hitters question every pitch coming from his hand. Vice versa, it is essential to understand what it looks like when Varland is struggling. Let's look at an example. In this sequence, Varland leaves an 84 MPH changeup center cut to Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman. Now, any 84 MPH center cut changeup will more likely than not get hit very hard and very far by any worthwhile Major League hitter, especially those the likes of Chapman. But it is still essential to analyze what might have gone wrong, despite the obvious. Varland has struggled with his changeup this season, likely because it is a very average pitch, if not slightly below average. Varland's changeup moves 14 inches and drops 31 inches. In comparison, the league average for changeups thrown by right-handed pitchers is 15 inches in horizontal movement with 31 inches in drop. Varland's changeup movement is almost perfectly average, which isn't inherently discouraging. What is discouraging is that Varland threw an average pitch toward the middle of the zone to an above-average Major League hitter, a story that has been told far too often this year. Varland has allowed 10% of balls put in play hit off of him to be barreled, which is 3% higher than the league average. This measurement is further evidenced by Varland's Barrel% being in only the 20th percentile. When Varland gives up contact, it tends to be hit hard and in the air, which can be a recipe for unfortunate outcomes for Varland, the Twins, and Twins fans alike. Now, this formula can work well in pitcher-friendly ballparks like Target Field. Still, when facing teams away from Target Field in hitter-friendly ballparks, as illustrated in the Blue Jays video, things can quickly go wrong for Varland if teams begin to make hard contact off him. Can Varland's Home Run Problem Be Fixed? Yes, but Varland will need to work on changing things. First, Varland needs to develop better off-speed pitches and locate them better. Can that happen at the Major League level? Yes, but it's not a foregone conclusion that the Twins would be comfortable with that, especially with potentially better options in the recently emerging left-handed pitching prospect Brent Headrick doing well in Triple-A and his most recent long relief appearance versus the Tigers on June 17, and the return of veteran right-handed 35-year-old Kenta Maeda imminent. Varland also needs to stop leaving as many fastballs hanging in the zone as he does. Varland throws 67% of his fastball in the strike zone, which is why he is so good at limiting walks, but when a pitcher throws 67% of his fastballs in the zone, that leaves the possibility of more hard-hit balls being put in play. If Varland can find ways to make his off-speed pitches more effective and play a complementary role to his fastball that needs to not be left in the middle of the zone as often, then he could become a solidified member of the Twins starting rotation alongside Ryan, López, and Ober. We will have to see if the Twins will allow Varland to make those adjustments at the Major League level or if he needs to undergo more fine-tuning in Triple-A with the St. Paul Saints and their coaching staff, but with Varland giving up two more home runs through 4 1/3 innings pitched while also propelling his ERA on the season to 5.30 in his most recent start against the Detroit Tigers on June 18, it feels like Varland has pitched himself out of a spot in the Twins rotation. What do you think about Varland's home run issue? Do you think he should get optioned to Triple-A or can he work out his command and location issues at the Major League level?
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Varland's Achilles' heel is hindering him from becoming a reliable Major League starting pitcher. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports When Twins starting pitcher Tyler Mahle was placed on the 15-day IL with a posterior impingement and flexor pronator strain in his pitching elbow on May 3, the Twins elected to recall right-handed pitching prospect Louie Varland from the Triple-A St. Paul Saints. Varland, who made a spot start for the Twins earlier in the season against the New York Yankees on April 14, where he threw six innings, giving up three earned runs on six hits and one walk while striking out eight hitters, was finally getting his first extended look as a member of the Twins rotation. Varland's extended look started on a not-so-hot note when he gave up four earned runs on seven hits while giving up two walks and striking out six through 4 2/3 innings pitched against the White Sox on May 3. Varland struggled initially, but things turned around quickly. Over Varland's next five starts, spanning from May 9 through May 31, Varland pitched a combined 30 1/3 innings while giving up only nine earned runs, striking out 25 hitters, and walking only five. Varland also pitched to a combined BABIP of just .246, which is lower than the league average currently sitting at .296, a Left On Base % (LOB%) of 92.5%, which is 20.74% higher than the league average, and an ERA of just 2.77, which is 1.52 points lower than league average. During that five-game stretch, Varland was incredible. Unfortunately, Varland has struggled over his last three starts against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 6, the Tampa Bay Rays on June 11, and the Detroit Tigers on June 18 (Happy Father's Day!). Through this three-game stretch, Varland has given up 21 hits, eight walks, five home runs, and 17 earned runs over 15 innings pitched. Varland also mustered a LOB% of 51.2%, which is 41.3% less than what he earned over his previous five games, an ERA of 8.64, which is 5.87 points higher than the previous five games, and a Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio (HR/FB) of 19.45%, which is 7.25% higher than league average and 6.95% higher than what he generated over his previous five games. Varland's promising start to his first opportunity as a full-time starting rotation member has since been dampened by three rough outings. It is important not to overreact and make critical judgments over relatively small sample sizes. Still, some serious red flags have been present all season for Varland, and the most significant red flag in Varland's game is the inability to limit home runs. Varland has a home run problem. There is no way around it. Through 51 2/3 innings pitched, Varland has given up an HR/9 of 2.09, which is 0.92 points higher than the league average of 1.17, and an HR/FB of 21.1%, which is 8.9% higher than the league average. To add context, Fangraphs classifies an HR/FB for pitchers of 13.0% as awful, so, in a sense, Varland's HR/FB ratio of 21.1% is "Below Awful." I don't mean to slander Varland, and I am optimistic that he can still be a key member of future Twins rotations alongside Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Bailey Ober. Still, his inability to limit home runs is very real and very concerning. Why is Varland struggling with giving up home runs? Let's take a deeper look. First, it is essential to understand what it looks like when things are going well for Varland on the mound. Here is an example. In this sequence, which shows only two pitches, Varland strikes out Astros first baseman/designated hitter José Abreu on a slider low and outside. Varland's slider begins looking like it is going toward the inside half of the plate but then quickly jumps out to the outer half, confusing right-handed hitters like Abreu. The reason Varland's slider tends to be so effective, like in the video example above, is because his off-speed pitches come from the same arm slot as his fastball. Varland's average arm slot when he throws fastballs comes in at 5.5 feet, while his average arm slot for when he throws sliders comes in at 5.4 feet, virtually the exact same, especially to the human eye. On average, Varland's slider moves 11 inches horizontally from right-handed hitters and drops 40 inches, which is impressive considering the league average for right-handed pitchers who throw sliders horizontal movement is six inches along with 36 inches in drop. In the next at-bat shown in the video example, Varland strikes out Astros outfielder Jake Meyers looking on a fastball high and outside. Varland's fastball, like most pitchers, works best when he is working it on the outside edges of the zone both vertically and horizontally. In this specific example, Varland strikes out Meyers by being able to pinpoint his fastball on the upper left-hand edge of the strike zone. Varland's unique wind-up, which looks like his arm is slinging the ball toward the plate, reminiscent of a trebuchet or a catapult, helps him confuse hitters as, when he is effective, his off-speed pitches and fastball come from the same unique arm slot, making hitters question every pitch coming from his hand. Vice versa, it is essential to understand what it looks like when Varland is struggling. Let's look at an example. In this sequence, Varland leaves an 84 MPH changeup center cut to Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman. Now, any 84 MPH center cut changeup will more likely than not get hit very hard and very far by any worthwhile Major League hitter, especially those the likes of Chapman. But it is still essential to analyze what might have gone wrong, despite the obvious. Varland has struggled with his changeup this season, likely because it is a very average pitch, if not slightly below average. Varland's changeup moves 14 inches and drops 31 inches. In comparison, the league average for changeups thrown by right-handed pitchers is 15 inches in horizontal movement with 31 inches in drop. Varland's changeup movement is almost perfectly average, which isn't inherently discouraging. What is discouraging is that Varland threw an average pitch toward the middle of the zone to an above-average Major League hitter, a story that has been told far too often this year. Varland has allowed 10% of balls put in play hit off of him to be barreled, which is 3% higher than the league average. This measurement is further evidenced by Varland's Barrel% being in only the 20th percentile. When Varland gives up contact, it tends to be hit hard and in the air, which can be a recipe for unfortunate outcomes for Varland, the Twins, and Twins fans alike. Now, this formula can work well in pitcher-friendly ballparks like Target Field. Still, when facing teams away from Target Field in hitter-friendly ballparks, as illustrated in the Blue Jays video, things can quickly go wrong for Varland if teams begin to make hard contact off him. Can Varland's Home Run Problem Be Fixed? Yes, but Varland will need to work on changing things. First, Varland needs to develop better off-speed pitches and locate them better. Can that happen at the Major League level? Yes, but it's not a foregone conclusion that the Twins would be comfortable with that, especially with potentially better options in the recently emerging left-handed pitching prospect Brent Headrick doing well in Triple-A and his most recent long relief appearance versus the Tigers on June 17, and the return of veteran right-handed 35-year-old Kenta Maeda imminent. Varland also needs to stop leaving as many fastballs hanging in the zone as he does. Varland throws 67% of his fastball in the strike zone, which is why he is so good at limiting walks, but when a pitcher throws 67% of his fastballs in the zone, that leaves the possibility of more hard-hit balls being put in play. If Varland can find ways to make his off-speed pitches more effective and play a complementary role to his fastball that needs to not be left in the middle of the zone as often, then he could become a solidified member of the Twins starting rotation alongside Ryan, López, and Ober. We will have to see if the Twins will allow Varland to make those adjustments at the Major League level or if he needs to undergo more fine-tuning in Triple-A with the St. Paul Saints and their coaching staff, but with Varland giving up two more home runs through 4 1/3 innings pitched while also propelling his ERA on the season to 5.30 in his most recent start against the Detroit Tigers on June 18, it feels like Varland has pitched himself out of a spot in the Twins rotation. What do you think about Varland's home run issue? Do you think he should get optioned to Triple-A or can he work out his command and location issues at the Major League level? View full article
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Yeah, I agree with you for the most part. It does feel extremely random and the three finalists that I predicted could easily not be in the running come of the end of the season. I am fairly confident that if voting happened today that Wander Franco would win, but other shortstops like Zach Neto, Jeremy Pena, or Bo Bichette could easily emerge as runner-ups or the winner at the end of the season.
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Yes, but I misinterpreted OAA by thinking that it values where the fielders are positioned when it actually measures how well a fielder reacts once the ball is put in play, by measuring how long it takes them to get to the ball, and what the fielder does once they get the ball. If I am interpreting it correctly, OAA doesn't take into account what the fielder does before the pitch is thrown.
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I agree that a player's offensive game matters when voters consider who should win the Gold Glove award for any given position. Another example of this phenomenon occurring was last year when Arraez finished top three in Gold Glove Award voting for first base, although there, as I stated in my story, technically no runner-ups for Gold Glove voting. I think Arraez finishing top three in AL Gold Glove voting for first base had a lot more to do with the fact that he hit .316 more than his defensive prowess.
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I agree that Gold Glove voting, for the most part, tends to be a popularity contest and I think that might work in Correa's favor. If the Twins are able to finish off the season relatively strong and Correa stays healthy and keeps improving offensively while continuing to be a plus defender, then I think Correa winning the Gold Glove could be a real possibility, At the same time, the fact that Gold Glove voting tends to be a popularity contest might hinder Correa's chances of winning since the Rays are the "it" team in baseball right now and Wander Franco is the face of their franchise and one of the future stars at baseball. Also, Franco has been better than Correa in almost every aspect of the game, so that helps his case as well.
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I agree that watching Correa play shortstop has been one of the more enjoyable parts of the 2023 season. He makes what should look like incredible tough plays to make look rather routine, plus he is one of the more sure-handed and strongest throwing infielders I have ever seen. This is why I think the "eye test" element of Correa's play at shortstop may sway some voters towards voting for him. Correa also won the Platinum Glove in 2021 while playing shortstop for the Astros, so his combination of pedigree plus the fact that he is so fun to watch might benefit his case for winning. We shall see!
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Good call! I falsely claimed that OAA values positioning when I meant to write that it values skill. Thanks for letting me know. My point still stands with how speedier and more agile shortstops get favored more often when it comes to OAA since they have a greater ability to get to certain balls in play.
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Despite enduring a frustrating start to the season offensively, Correa has maintained an elite level of play at shortstop. Is Correa on track to win his second career Gold Glove and first as a Twin? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Through 69 games, the Minnesota Twins have the 19th-ranked offense in baseball while hitting a combined .232/.313/.403 (.716) with wRC+ of 100. Whether it be having a league-leading K% of 27%, the inability to score with the bases loaded, or veteran players expected to produce at an average or above-average clip not producing, the Twins offense has been the main reason why they haven't been able to significantly separate themselves from other teams in what is considered to be one of the worst divisions in baseball history. The most notable veteran player yet to produce as expected is the recently signed-to-a-six-year-$200-million-guaranteed-contract star shortstop Carlos Correa. Despite hitting only .219/.304/.424 (.728) with a wRC+ of 101 and K% of 24.5%, which is on track to be the highest of his career, Correa's offensive performance seems to be trending upward after hitting a go-ahead eighth-inning grand slam against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 10 and a walk-off two-run home run against the Milwaukee Brewers on June 13 while also hitting .292/.370/.750 (1.120) over his last seven games. When Correa struggles to contribute for the Twins at the plate, he can still create immense value at baseball's most challenging position. Through 57 games played, Carlos Correa has been nothing short of incredible this year while playing shortstop. Let's begin by looking at Correa's 2023 numbers so far. Through 479 1/3 innings played, Correa has had 190 defensive chances, which takes into account putouts, assists, and errors. In those 190 chances, Correa has 78 putouts, 109 assists, and only three errors, generating a fielding percentage of .984, slightly higher than his career average of .981. Correa has also generated 20 double plays, with nine started and 11 turned. To look at more advanced defensive metrics, Correa currently possesses an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of -0.9, which measures slightly below average. UZR is a stat that measures how many runs, better or worse, that player is relative to the average player at that position, so in Correa's case, UZR measures how well Correa has performed compared to other shortstops in baseball. UZR, like Outs Above Average (OAA), and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), should not be taken as objective truth, primarily because they can only provide a partial story. With this in mind, let's look at how Correa's main competitors for the 2023 American League Gold Glove Award for Shortstop look when it comes to UZR. Correa's top four competitors appear to be Bobby Witt Jr., Wander Franco, Javier Baez, and Jorge Mateo. Witt Jr. has a UZR of -0.6, Franco has a UZR of 2.0, Baez has a UZR of -3.2, and Mateo has a UZR of 4.6. Correa ranks behind three out of the four shortstops listed above in UZR, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he is a worse defensive shortstop than them. Another important defensive metric to consider is Outs Above Average, or OAA. Correa has an OAA of one, which currently ranks 14th in baseball. OAA, similarly to UZR, should not be taken as an objectively quantifiable metric. OAA, when discussing infielders, considers how far an infielder must travel to get the ball, how long it takes them to get there, and how far he is from the base the runner is heading to. Witt Jr. has an OAA of six, Franco has an OAA of eight, Baez has an OAA of seven, and Mateo has an OAA of two. Although Correa's top four competitors all have higher OAAs, that, once again, doesn't necessarily mean they are better defensive shortstops than Correa. Since OAA highly values the skill of shortstops and how long it takes them to get to the ball, it would make sense to assume that speedier shortstops tend to have higher OAA than those who are less fast. When looking at Correa's competitors, all four have higher sprint speeds, with Witt Jr., whose sprint speed is in the 100th percentile, and Mateo, whose sprint speed is in the 99th percentile, having significantly higher sprint speeds. Correa defensive prowess appears to be devalued, while players such as Baez, Witt Jr., and Mateo's perceived defensive aptitude is getting boosted by their speed and ability to cover ground. Lastly, Defensive Runs Saved, or DRS, attempts to quantify how many runs a defender has saved by considering a player's entire defensive performance. Specifically, DRS considers errors, range, arm strength, and one's ability to start and turn double plays. Essentially, DRS and UZR are the same, which is illustrated in how Correa compares to his competitors' DRS rankings. Correa currently owns a DRS of two, which ranks 18th in all of baseball. Witt Jr. owns a DRS of -3, Franco owns a DRS of 10, Baez owns a DRS of three, and Mateo owns a DRS of six. Correa ranks four out of five in DRS, beating out only Witt Jr. If Gold Glove voting came down to exclusively sabermetric rankings, it would be nearly impossible for Correa to win this year's Gold Glove award for AL shortstops. However, defensive sabermetrics only tell part of the story regarding how good of a defender a particular player may or may not be. Correa has an elite glove as well as what may be the best arm of all shortstops in baseball. Correa may have a shorter range than shortstops like Franco and Mateo, but he makes up for it by having immense skill and an excellent sense of where to be at any given moment. With this taken into account, voters, many of whom place a tremendous amount of value on the "eye test," may be more inclined to vote for Correa simply because he plays the position so smoothly. If voting occurred today for who would be the American League Gold Glove winner for shortstop, I think Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco would win, with Correa finishing in the top three of voting, although there technically are no runner-ups for Gold Glove voting, alongside Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo. Franco currently sports a UZR of 2.0, an OAA of eight, which leads AL shortstops, and a DRS of ten, which are all better numbers than what Correa owns. Also, Franco has played in 542 1/3 innings, which is 63 more innings than what Correa has played this season. Wishfully thinking, if Correa can stay healthy by managing his plantar fasciitis, avoid other forms of injury, and accrue a larger sample size while performing the way he has all year defensively, then there could be an opportunity for Correa to win the 2023 AL Gold Glove Award for shortstops. Until then, Correa needs to make up ground if he wants to usurp shortstops the likes of Franco and Mateo. Do you think Correa is on track to win his first Gold Glove as a Twin? Who would you vote for? View full article

