Hawkeye Bean Counter

If he isn't healthy, it means the strain isn't healing on its own, or with PRP injections, meaning he will need Tommy John. Even if cleared I am going to be having Paddack nightmares in those first 2 months worried it gives out. If he can get 3-4 months in should be good to get through the season.

Do you trust Montgomery to perform like he did for a 1/2 season for the next 5-6 years? I don't. The Twins don't spend big on pitchers for free agency. Yes if he wanted a 1 year 20 mil contract I think the Twins would jump on it. I don't see it happening.

1 question for everyone, do you believe ownership allowed the Twins to skyrocket payroll for 1 year last year after they had already pivoted away from Correa and then were able to sign him. I fully think last year was a one off. Add in the RSN issues and its a 1 off the other way. Even still the team is in my opinion having better health and depth than last year, especially in the bullpen and then at this point with Buxton (knock on wood). Yes I would rather have Gray than Paddack, but with that being said Paddack may have even a higher ceiling than Gray especially in a playoff scenario (even though he hasn't shown it accept in fleeting moments). For me a lot comes down to the health of Desclafani. Is he even a pitcher we can count on this year or not. If he is I feel a lot better on this season. If not then we need to make another move at some point and may still need to make a move on the SP market even if he is healthy.

Staumont when he talks is already throwing the ball. Maybe not at 100% and maybe taking a little longer to get his feel back. I agree I don't think they plan to put him on the 60 day. The only change in that philosphy is that the plan was always to put him on the 60 day, and treat him as almost a trade deadline player that you don't have to trade any assets for. Desclafani's situation is just weird as he hasn't been given an all clear for almost 8 months.

I really think we need another arm. In reality we have room for 1 more player, 2 if my biggest concern comes to fruition and Desclafani is put on the 60 day and may be done for the year.

Honestly he could stay healthy, my concern would be is the following. Adrian is a much better contact hitter than Buxton. To me buxton would have to improve his contact. Right now just too much swing and miss.

I would agree if you put those 2 together into 1, you would have potential hall of famer.

Almost completely agree with your take. I do think he can play in the outfield with his elite arm even with a bit of poor foot speed. As to his bat and prospectus as a player, a top 150 ranking is about right. He has the ability to be one of the top hitters . . . if and its a bit if . . . he can develop more plate discipline. He crushes anything in the zone. He can crush somethings out of the zone similar to Vlad Guerrero, but he also has lots of weak contact to add in. Its a great project for AA. I think he will be much more developed and with more training will show much better than he did in last years cup of tea. Now the question is can he be elite like he was in A ball? That is the question.

Its a bad take. Also after a full season of these kids playing and another draft, I am firmly of the opinion that this will be a top 10 possibly top 5 Farm by the end of the year but I am assuming Lee is still not a full time member of the MLB yet and still a prospect.

I agree with this philosphy for the pitching side I am going to be really following highest ceiling pitchers this year. Canterino, Raya, Priellip, Soto - then the next tier of Festa, Lewis and the rest of the 2022 and 2023 draft picks. I know the depth is really starting to show up on the pitching side, but I want to see a true #1 or #2 develop out of these options and I think there is a pretty good chance it happens even if its 1 to 2 or even 3 years out.

Well we have added Ryan Jensen to AAA who still has an option. Will see what happens to Balazovic, Duarte and Thompson, see if they get claimed or not. It looks like teams who can put teams on the 60 day in the next day or 2 are Dodgers and Padres, otherwise the rest of the teams rosters seem fairly filled out right now.

Does anyone have any update on Desclafani and his elbow. I have read where they expect him to be healthy, however that doesn't quite jive with what has occurred. So Desclafani, was struggling they found the grade 1 flexor strain and shut him down, after 2-3 weeks or a month can heal on its own. They checked him again in July, it had not healed. They then gave him a prp injection, which if works should be healed in 8-12 weeks, He was expected to be cleared at the end of Sept. early October and said it in an interview. However, at the trade we received an update he has still not been cleared. DeSclafani was limited to 19 starts in 2023 due to a right flexor strain, and while the hope is that he'll be ready for Opening Day, he's yet to get the all clear. Once healthy, he'll compete with Chris Paddack and Louie Varland for one of the final two spots in MInnesota's rotation. So he has gone now almost 7-8 months and it still hasn't healed on its own, even with the PRP injections. Am I missing something here? To me looks like a Tommy John candidate unless he is close to getting full bill of health they are just waiting a little longer to ensure strength. Does anyone have any input on this?

Dodgers are the first team to hit their 60 days as their spring training starts tomorrow. Then the following day the Padres do as they prepare to play their first game overseas. Otherwise the rest of the teams 60 days can be done in about a week. Looks like a rolling time frame, not a set in stone. Dodgers I don't think will mess around with the options, Padres could not sure. But would likely only have room for 1.

Yes I guess there is a slight difference that we are initially putting them out to be claimed (after we had claimed them). Duarte, Weiss, Thompson, and Jensen and Bubba all have options left. Balazovic does not. As Chpettit posted in another post, a lot of these players are rated similarly. The Twins are trying to collect as many as possible to outright to AAA. If they get picked by another team, its part of the business and we have already passed Jensen through. Bubba is an interesting player and I continue to say is very similar to Willi Castro. I do hope he is able to pass through. He has had good numbers in AAA and has immense speed that could be a problem on the base paths similar to Castro. Castro was surprise last year. Most people hated or dismissed his signing. Every once in a while one of these AAA signings or players placed through waivers flashes, or figures something out. To put them all in similar bucket like Chpettit has said as well, is not a crazy strategy that the Twins are utilizing.

I am saying minor league players can have affect on the big leagues. Willi was signed to a minor league deal last year. We are trying to pass these players through waivers likely to play in AAA. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/twins-sign-willi-castro-to-minor-league-deal.html

Not great, but Royals are having to market a better team for getting the new stadium. We are having RSN issues. Yes it is not great, but its the world we are living in. Cleveland has done much less than us and have talked about trading their closer that they have under control for 5 more years - they are also dealing with the RSN issues.

So likely an issue with trying to squeeze the other 2 into AAA good to know.

Well Twins found a Nickel and were able to hide it. The next 2 have a higher shot of helping the ball team in Duarte and Thompson. We will see if those 2 will make it through as well. Right now it feels like rosters are pretty full and the Twins are towards the bottom of the picks, so most likely we will be able to get through them as well. As stated before most likely nothing but every once in while one of these types of players flash. Duarte and Thompson seem close, similar to a Willi Castro last year.

This blog is odd. What I learned is Gast has a major affinity for Polanco, and anything in return was not going to meet his expectations. Healthy or not what did we lose. 1 and maybe 2 years of Polanco. There is not enough bats at 3rd base (where he struggled) 2nd or DH to get full value of a healthy Polanco with Julien here. Topa learned a new pitch in 2022. Had some effectiveness with it in 2022, then took off in 2023. He appear in 75 games, the third most appearances of any reliever (thanks mlb radio this morning 😀). No offense that is not a flash in the pan. He is another reliable arm to throw in the bullpen. That has value. Gonzalez . . . wow . . . just wow. Ok lets be real, he is not a top 100 prospect but he is a top 150. He has the best bat to ball skills of any player in A ball last year, best BA last year in A ball. If you have tweak something, Strike zone and identifying pitches is much easier than learning how to hit a ball. For loving a player like Polanco, Gonzalez has the potential to be a similar type player if not a better version. Is he perfect no - but you got him for 1 year of Polanco. His arm is strong, and he tailed off in high A. I anticipate a strong year in high A for him. Getting another strong outfield prospect does help the minors, but also our depth. We now have 4 highly rated OF prospects, with several others underneath them. Darren Bowen has an a very good fastball and slider right now. Effectively the Twins can try to have him learn a 3rd pitch and remain a starter, or fast track him on the reliever side. Desclafani - as of right now I am expecting nothing. He was a negative asset in the trade. If he pitches we will be getting value, but he still hasn't been cleared. No offense, but even in 2 months he won't have enough time to build up to be a starter. I like what he can do (when healthy), and maybe he gives us another arm in May or June for the summer stretch where inevitably someone will get injured. I had high hopes at first after reading and article he would be starting his offseason program after the season, but that has quickly soured after further updates. They stat he will be cleared soon, so we will see.

All I know is he was over a 4 WAR player . . . in just the second half. Had a negative war the first half. He had a .260 average over the entire year and was a 2.9 War. If he is a .275 BA he is likely a 4-5 WAR. If he hits .300 like he did the 2nd half of the season he is an 8 WAR player. An 8 war player is not accepting a qualifying offer. A 5 war player is not accepting a qualifying offer.

If he hits .275 average or better his stats and WAR will be off the charts. That is a top 15 outfielder with his defense and power. 4-5 years at between in the $80 to $100 million range is likely what he would get.

I would really say depends on what the TV situation and salary situation in the future is. However, a $15 million to $20 million player would be tough to keep on the team in my opinion with the other contracts. I am still hoping for a qualifying offer situation that he turns down similar to Gray this year. Those extra picks at the end of the 1st round begin to stack up especially with the competitive balance picks.

Excellent job, wish more people have seen this. I would like to know more about Desclafani's health. Still stating they expect him to be healthy, but that it sounds like he has not been cleared to pitch yet. Curious of what the expected time frame is and whether he will have enough time to ramp up to starter level innings.

Canterino, is your arm in the minors that could flash if healthy. I would say the odds are slim. He seemed to gel well with Paddack. I think Varland is a better reliever than starting pitcher, but right now we need him to fill in the depth role for the starters and compete with Desclafani.

There is no one else we have to replace him with. Polanco was a focus because you already have Julien and then Farmer as your utility. There just isn't another outfielder that you can guarantee an effective above average player in right field. Add in he may have figured things out. If so, a team trading for him, would have to trade for that version. If he performs similarly to that 2nd half, you also have the option at a qualifying offer after this season. Its a possibility and a question and will not go much more into it as I have hashed that fairly well. The trade threshold is extremely high on Kepler, and honestly it is apparent they plan to keep him for this season and I think that is the right decision.