Hawkeye Bean Counter

Offseason2+Proj WAR 2018 $9.3 M/WAR 2019 $7.8 M/WAR 2020 $9.5 M/WAR 2021 $5.5 M/WAR 2022 $8.5 M/WAR Those are contracts giving out and what teams were paying for 1 level of WAR. Obviously 2021 free agents got shafted due to Covid. However the currently group of free agents is getting close to $10 million again for WAR and I have seen it could rise to $11 million next year. Candelario has a steamer value of 1 WAR next year but came off a 3 WAR season similar to Kepler and got a 3 year 45 million contract Gurriel has a steamer value of 1.1 WAR, Had a 2 WAR last year. Signed a 3 year $42 million contract. Garver may have taken a discount. Has a steamer value of 1.6 WAR - signed for 2 years $24 million. Teoscar Hernandez has steamer value of 1.7 signed for Present Value Contract of $19-20 million. Kepler had a 2.6 WAR for fangraphs and a steamer WAR for next year of 2.3 WAR. Looks like they readjusted calculations slightly. So for Fangraphs he has a higher future valuation for next year than Candelario (almost double) - yet I get the sense most think the max Kepler would get is basically the Candelario contract. On a one year contract he is worth right around 25 million for 2024 year. We will see how he performs and what the expected value is for 2025 if he is not traded by then.

I have a feeling MAT's contract will surprise people. He has a steamer value of 1.0. So his contract should come in at 10 million or north of that per a year. Value is value. Spotract has him at a 2 year 14 million. I think he will come in between 2 year 17 million and 2 year 20 million or a 1 year 10 million. Kiermaier has a steamer value of 1.2 and signed a contract of 10.5 million.

The small hall voters are generally the private later individuals.

Then what changed in the 2nd half? Something repeatable or what you would classify as luck?

Well of your list I only think Rizzo and Teoscar are comparable with low 2.0 WAR prior year (Keplers was 2.9). Rizzo got a 2 year $40 million contract (and he was offered the QO) and Teoscar didn't get the offer and got a 1 for $20 mil contract. I will not consider Garver due to his significant injury history the last couple of years and his steamer value of 1.6 for next year. A low 2.0 WAR player is in the borderline category which is exactly where Kepler is at and shown by Rizzo and Teoscar. So of those 2 Rizzo was offered and declined and Teoscar wasn't offered and came in right at that QO amount. A single WAR is worth 10 million right now and I wouldn't be surprised if its pushing 11 million next year. Teams want wins, and getting a 2.5 wins above replacement is worth $25 million. This isn't rocket science. Analytics value Kepler as a 2.4 WAR player for next year and Teoscar at 1.9. Teoscars 1 year contract came right in at what his value is worth. So yes this still comes down to you don't think Kepler is worth his 2.4 WAR for the valuation of around 24-25 million on a single year deal. Ultimately this is all an eye test and what fans value kepler at and its clear you don't value him on what the stats are telling you.

Chpettit, LOL I looked back and he has the lowest BABIP of any player since 1990. Ok, is some of it luck, is some of it lack of quality contact and some of it do to the exaggerated shift against him, I would agree its all of it. He was a 149 OPS+ in the second half of the season with a .306/.377/.549 slash line. What happened, he did a hell of a lot better on the first pitch. The other thing is we were facing the 2nd weakest set of opponents in the 2nd half so we do have to take that into consideration. I think Kepler will be above a 2.5 WAR which I believe will be a QO candidate. You also have to know what type of individual Kepler is. He is not one that is inherently aggressive or overconfident. Its why he took a team friendly extension to lock in those dollars. I don't think he is one to bet on himself by accepting the qualifying offer, he will want to lock in salaries for an extended period. It is very clear both you and Mike don't see him as a 2.4 to 2.5 WAR type player which is silly since thats what he has been as a floor since 2019. Ultimately it will come down to production. However as I have stated Candelario's and Teoscar's contract show Kepler is worth much more than most Twins fans are willing to give him credit and I would say yes he is a borderline qualifying offer that will be dependent on his offensive performance in 2024. Here are the lowest career BABIP totals by all MLB hitters with at least 2,500 plate appearances since 1990: HITTER BABIP RH OR LH? Max Kepler .247 LEFT Rod Barajas .248 RIGHT Henry Blanco .250 RIGHT Mark McGwire .254 RIGHT Carlos Quentin .255 RIGHT Joe Crede .255 RIGHT Maikel Franco .257 RIGHT Tony Batista .257 RIGHT Joe Carter .257 RIGHT Jeff Mathis .260 RIGHT

.780 OPS, so a step back on 2023 number, significantly better than 2021 and 2022. However like I stated, I think you have to add .20 to .40 OPS when you remove the exaggerated shift. Kepler went from the most unlucky hitter in all of baseball in 2021 and 2022 , to one of the top 10 luckiest hitters in the last 3 months of 2023. All we need for him is to be average LOL. Remove the outliers and you have a very solid player that is well worthy of a QO. However if he continues to get more quality hits early in the count rather than trying to defend the plate and hitting weaker contact with 2 strikes, you will likely see a better Kepler. Will teams start to throw more junk early in the count? If they do can Kepler adjust and then have more 1-0 counts which means that second pitch will need to be a quality pitch or the at bat is significantly trending Keplers way. Kepler just willing to give the 1st strike was a killer for his production in my opinion.

Heywards steamer is a 1.0 WAR, or effectively 10 million. Keplers is 2.4 or effectively 24 million. Quite difference. Teoscars is 1.9 or 19 million, voila he received a present value contract of 19 to 20 million. Do we see a trend here?

Chpettit, I already stated in previous posts, I greatly think fans are underestimating Keplers value. I also have as a baseline than he will be at minimum a .250/.330/.470. 2021 and 2022 don't matter as much, as the over-exaggerated shift is no longer allowed. You add in a more free swinging confident Kepler and you are looking at a 3 WAR minimum player.

Not many players average 2+ WARS as a floor Mike, and both Polanco and Kepler do. Teoscar WAR 2023- 2.1 2022 - 2.8 2021- 3.8 Kepler 2023 - 2.9 2022 - 2.2 2021 - 2.1 If Kepler discovered even a 20% improvement over his baseline from the end of last year, he is a slam dunk worthy QO. He was nearly a 4 WAR in the last 3 months of the season. Kepler has a projected steamer value of 2.4 while Teoscars is 1.9.

Teoscar on a 3 year likely would have been right around the 50 million mark. I think Polanco and Kepler would both net more than 50 million on a more than 3 year contract.

Top 10 doesn't mean squat, it all comes down to what you are worth. Teoscar was always on the fence of being a QO and his slightly down season made it not worth Seattle's risk. Kepler has a much higher floor with his defensive skills. If his offense is even decent he is a much better player than Teoscar. Kepler has a career WAR of 20. Teoscar's is 12.8 and Polanco's is 17. Polanco and Kepler have consistently been much better players than Teoscar and average close to 2 WAR or higher as a floor for several years.

Chpettit, if Kepler is his 2020-2022 version, that is still better than Teoscar. If he is 80% of his second half performance, he is a guaranteed QO. If he is early season Kepler that would be a negative. However, Kepler swinging earlier in counts at better quality pitches, than out of the zone and poorly hit balls can be replicated.

If a player is worth 20 mil yes it gets complicated. The Twins can do the math, but right now Kepler is likely worth 25 mil on a 1 year contract, and on a 3 year well above $50. Above average players will continued to get paid very well. There is lack of quality it baseball. Polanco and Kepler are very good players and worthy of QO.

You are correct that Polanco has 2 more years, but you still have the potential in 2 years of a QO so it should be included in your trade compensation. How you do that I have no idea. All I know is a late first round draft pick is worth a lot more than mediocre prospect.

So Teoscar signed for what is effectively a 20 million 1 year contract. I have had this discussion with many on the board, its that Kepler and Polanco if they have healthy good years, are better players than Teoscar and would likely be worthy of QO. Now there was no draft compensation included in Hernandez's signing, I understand that, but Polanco and Kepler are better players than he is by a significant amount. Any trade will need to bring back significant compensation, as the new team, may be able to offer the QO themselves, or the Twins can keep and hope for healthy good season from the players. I am fine with a trade, but there value not only to the team this year, but also potentially with QO and draft compensation is significant. I don't look so crazy anymore do I LOL.

I think between the limited success of Stewart and to a certain extent De Leon, I think they feel confident they can fix 1 to 2 and find a quality reliever. Wish we would have kept Cano and been unable to unlock him but what do I know. Lets pull Wild thing out of retirement and put all 3 of these pitchers in the bullpen it should be entertaining. I do think they will have moderate success at likely find 1 decent reliever option between AJ Alexy, Staumont and Jensen, even though I think Staumont is more of a play for 2024 than 2023. In either case hopefully 1 of these arms can become another Brock Stewart. Someone with elite talent but never been able to unlock it.

I am not a fan of 6 man rotations, I am a fan of having 6 starting pitchers on a team going into each year with 1 to 2 prospects that you think you can count on during the season if need be. It is inevitable 1 to 2 pitchers will go down at the same time. To limit your depth issues and also causing you bullpen to get overwhelmed your depth can help you get through the rough patches. It worked for us this year as well as the Texas Rangers. For me I think Lopez and Paddack will be our 1 and 2 this year but their is a lot of variability potential in Paddack and how many innings he will be able to pitch. with that being said, I think its in the Twins best interest to try to trade for a #2 or #3 pitcher.

130+ innings I guess fits in both categories LOL. Even still if we get 260 sub 4 ERA from the combination of Ryan and Ober I think the Twins would be pretty happy with that.

NM

Ummmmm . . . the Twins effectively had 6 starters for last year, I think they will have a similar set up for this year. It assumes someone will have an injury or worse performance. You are setting incredibly high standards of success that is no longer as relevant to the current way baseball is being played. The Twins were 3rd in average number of innings pitched by their starters. As to the Rangers, they were a hodge podge of quality starters as well as Arizona. Neither had what could effectively be billed as an ace that was pitching as an ace in the playoffs. The Rangers and Arizona had 2 of the 3 worst pitching staffs going into the playoffs. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10091773-ranking-the-pitching-staff-of-every-2023-mlb-playoff-team Ultimately you need enough innings pitched by your starters than don't overwhelm your bullpen. The Twins were effective with it last year and seem to be on similar path for next year. Getting upset by an unfinished product does not seem very pragmatic for the current situation. We needed more Bundy's Archer's Shoemakers due to complete absence of a pitching staff and/or a decent pipeline in the minors. The overall pitching quality and depth is night and day throughout the entire system than 2017. The front office is not perfect and deserves some criticism, however considering what they were handed and the overall pitching and hitters in the organization we seem in a very good position to have continued success. To be bemoan the quality of a Ryan and Ober is rather concerning in my opinion.

ehhh, throw it in the general public forum and you will get general public responses. Refer to my first post in this thread. Even with out seeing the rest of the information still seems non care takers can have a genuine take on the signing or the other posts in the thread. If not then again put it in only the Caretaker forum that can only be read or responded to by caretakers.

they didn't pitch that many innings for their team though. Isn't that the very definition you just stated was not successful of 130+ innings from Ober and Ryan. Seem to be moving the goalposts.

Mn fireman "130 innings from Ryan and/or Ober is not a successful season" Stating Ober and Ryan don't count as options getting over 130 is rather concerning which started this entire post. If those 2 achieve it with Lopez that is better or equivalent to 26 other teams without giving any possibilities at the #4 or #5 pitcher. You need solid pitchers like Ryan and Ober remaining healthy to have a successful staff and give you a decent shot of getting to the playoffs and possibly succeeding in the playoffs. Thinking that you will have a top 1 to 2 staff is rather pie in the sky for thinking that is the only level of being successful.

Ehh . . The odds are not high but I would say the Twins are thinking better than 40% chance they are able to achieve this. They know a couple things we don't, the first being which procedure he had. Up to this point that is not public knowledge. The second is they were likely given information on his rehab, pitching progress, current velocity if already pitching, potential progress on sweeper slider if working on one and assessing his buy in on trying to change his repertoire. As to velocity, he still averaged 95.6 with what has been described as a sore shoulder he was trying to pitch through last year. If the surgery was successful, which I am going to presume was and he was already topping out at 97 to 98 last year, I think its fairly easy to assume the velocity will be close to what it was before. Paddack throwing a pitch harder than he ever has gives me decent confidence in the velocity department with the pitching staff philosophies. So yes your mantra speaks to every pitcher. However it appears we improved Gray, Lopez, Ryan and potentially Paddack better than their previous teams had. I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on a flier like Staumont. Sadly a Hader is not in the equation, so a flier like Staumont is likely our best option to find another quality reliever. You need to state the alternative before knocking down Staumont in my opinion. What makes the Rays better than every other team? Their hit rate on fliers like Staumont is so much higher than everyone else. What they generally do better than most teams due to their extremely low payroll is to not get caught with their pants down on a long term contract gone bad, cough cough (Wander Franco). Its not sexy but I very much like the potential and willing to be patient to see what the Twins are able to do with him. Expecting a sexy pickup this year in free agency is a slim to none proposition. The only player with a possibility would be Rhys Hoskins and I don't think that is a high possibility.