Hawkeye Bean Counter

I can put risk on now so yes I am trying to get to where that nest egg is built where we can live off of investment income. With a bank that is valued 29 cents on the dollar, I feel incredibly save, especially since debt is 15% of equity. There is literally no physical way the bank goes bankrupt. FDIC insured and audited, so feel good about the numbers. Beyond that, I don't chance sectors, and I do not know the pharmaceutical/healthcare sector well. My preferred areas - preferred reits when they get knocked down. Energy Sector after severe declines. Right now playing the 4 year cycle on crypto's that has played out to a T. But that is not to say the trend continues. Any other sector that is significantly beat up. Either find best of breed, diversify, or find company feel most comfortable with, and wait for sentiment and economics to change. I feel comfortable about the next year for my investments, but then you take your profits and significantly de-risk, because I will have achieved effectively my end game. IRA will be large, cash investments large. Minimal Roth, but not sure if will ever be able to take advantage of that.

Paddack at 140 to 160 innings isn't really going to constrict too much. Just basically means we won't let him go deep in games. I am really curious to see what he looks like. I honestly don't think we will be missing Gray too much 😉. As to Desclafani it all comes down to health. 2022 with the foot injury which they repaired (effectively never had the ligament, the body just compensated) seems like a 1 off. The elbow injury with the PRP injection is the bigger issue. Can the elbow hold out for 2024 and is he closer to the 2023 spring version and 2021 version. If the elbow starts to fail, he is toast for the year. For 4 million that is a good gamble with potential, #2 to #3 upside. We could have a #1 followed by 4 pitchers that are #2 or #3 quality. If so that would be a hell of a staff especially with the bullpen we should have this year.

On my computer the question mark isn't showing up LOL. I keep getting my hopes up, you would think after 4-5 days I would figure it out 😉

I went heavy and hard into MSTR in Oct of 2022. So far that is playing out fairly well. Planning to sell in March of 2024. Going to put 30% in spider. Also planning to put a decent chunk into a small bank that gives a 5% dividend and is well undervalued compared to its book value. If ever sold have an opportunity at a 300% return. A good forever hold that pays me to hold while seeing if the stock ever appreciates on its own or is in a sell out and gives a massive return. BKUTK. Very low float though. Not a traders stock.

Fyi I hate the thread topic, every time I see I think damn the Twins did it LOL.

He is not at a crossroads unless the injury wasn't his issue. He has been an above average pitcher for us and I expect him to continue to be. He becomes a much better pitcher if he can develop more of the offspeed pitches, but so far, they just haven't developed, even with a team and coaching staff that emphasizes them. I don't anticipate major changes unless last season scared him a bit. I figure much of the same. Really good pitching followed by some stinkers.

Miller has the highest floor because of his defense. As to ceiling hard to say. I think at their peak, maybe De Andrade because of more power, but if so he will likely start having to move off of SS. I think both need work with the bats still but they have a path to make it. As to Millers stats early in the year compared to later in the year it appears he became much more selective and got much more walks and also was able to increase his power a bit. Having a better eye will play at all levels. I don't expect that to decline this year. Yes if he comes out with 600 OPS again that will be disappointing. If he can start coming out with a high .700 OPS or low .800 OPS as he did at the end of last year, that is a damn fine player with his defense. Its a similar situation to Kepler, was the 2nd half a mirage or did something fundamentally change. In both cases I think something fundamentally changed and I expect big things from both players.

Noahs .823 OPS in August in A+. compared to De Andrade .886 in August also in A ball is pretty compareable. Biggest difference I saw was Miller was a steady crescendo of improvement while De Andrade's was a bit all over the place - august appeared to be outlier to everything else. Its not that I am discounting De Andrade, its that I think Miller figured something out and with his defense, and higher lever has a leg up on De Andrade. He will also most likely get 1st crack at either SS or as the utility since further developed.

Yes, he also has the 21 year old Miller ahead of him, who I actually think has a better shot at being the next Twins shortstop of the future, as of right now. Millers bat clicked in the second half and his OBP went up every month after June. Damn impressive. We will see where both of these guys are this year. I think Millers defense is likely a little better. However, who has the better bat is definitely a toss up. Both good young prospects.

He has some talent. He appears to be improving even as he goes up. He is showing as an elite prospect yet so 14 sounds about right. Curious which level they will put him at, keep him where he is at, or continue the aggressive approach and move him up a level.

Damn you have a high hurdle for late round prospects. The Twins are finding MLB players and prospects late in the draft on a routine basis. I am looking at players drafted in Rd 4 or later. 2017. Ober (12) 2018, Winder (7th) Funderburk (15) 2019 Varland (15th) 2020 Raya (4) 2021 Festa (13), Ohl (14) 2022 Morris (4), Jones (7) Matthews (8), Lewis (9), Culpepper (13) 2023 Hall (4), Questad (5) Stoffal (8), Dougherty (9), Dunn (10), Langenberg (11), Pasqualotto (12), Lee (13) What are you looking for or wanting. Out of the 17-19 drafts you have a #3 starter, a #5 starter (so far) and a reliever. In the 21-23 drafts you already have a current top 5 and top 10 prospect as a starting pitcher in Raya and Festa, and you have a crap load of talent in the 2022 and 2023 draft. Yes some will flake out, but you have a ton of options, a couple will rise to the top at minimum. That is out of draft picks that are expected to fail. That they have found any type of MLB talent is impressive.

Hall is going to succeed no matter what in my mind, its just going to be how good will he be. He is already a pitcher, he knows how to command a zone, hit locations, and have filth on the stuff he throws. He ran a 2.8 ERA in 2022 on 110 innings and a 2.48 ERA in 2023 on 110 inning. He is a stud already. You add a deadly slider/sweeper, and increase velocity 4 mph. Move him from 88-91 to 92 to 95 and watch out. For top 5 prospects in 2026 he is my safest pick. I have no doubt he will succeed and fly up through the minors and prospect boards. High end #2 pitcher is what I am looking for from him right now.

This is most likely a smokescreen, and other than being a left hand bat he would be a perfect fit here. The issue is do you skyrocket the payroll this year be damned. At that point you are 1 high level pitcher away from being a contender.

The 10% of fans that know about the impacts of the Bally's deal will follow the Twins no matter what. The rest of them don't care about a bally's deal, it depends on what product is on the field. If its good baseball, people will likely show up.

Stewart, breakout last year with us Topa breakout last year with new pitch Jackson - great era last year, but the peripheral numbers show may be aberration Staumont - great arm, questionable control, questionable health Okert solid lefty the last 4 years, numbers slightly up last year If 3-4 are solid from this group will have a great bullpen. You then have Weiss (see if we keep him) , Balazovic, Boushley, boyle, Duarte, Henriquez, Jensen, Lawyerson, Shulfer, Moran. All with decent arms and see if something clicks this year. Of that group I would say at least 1 or 2 will flash in the Twins system and you will find something usable. Lastly you have Canterino. I have a feeling he is going to perform very well. The question is he a SP or a RP.

Lets be realistic, most of these aren't quick hook situations, sometimes, but most cases the pitchers have been inefficient and counts are getting into the 80's, 90's 100's. Now if a pitcher is laboring I have no concerns going to a pen even in the 5th or 6th inning. Yes if they can go 6 most games great. If, and its a bit of an if, but if Desclafani and Paddack are healthy and give you 130 to 150 innings of either solid or very good innings, between the SP and bullpen this team is set up very well on the pitching side. Varland is your back up. Then we see between Winder, Festa, SWR, Dobnack, Canterino, I think there is enough depth. They are still looking for 1 more pitcher to sign to AAA or big league level. As to the bullpen, if someone is struggling we don't have to keep throwing them out like we have in previous years. We can send someone down or put them on the IL. We have options galore. I am really looking forward to this season.

Lorenzen had a 3.58 ERA in 18 starts for Detroit last year.

Ryan was a #2 early in the season last year, then fell apart. Ober is a low end 2 high end 3 in my opinion.

You need arms that can pitch innings. Lorenzen is the most interesting of the group. There will be no #2, but I am not opposed if this is what we are running to have a bit of insurance if someone gets hurt or struggles. Winder who was behind Varland is injured, so one less option on the SP side.

They still appear to be looking for SP depth, whether a AAA contract or another SP4-5. Lorenzen, Thor, Clevinger types.

So the reports were completely erroneous. Not only is he healthy now, but my other concern, of not only a long healing schedule, but also that he hadn't thrown this winter was also false. So now I am back to being cautiously optimistic, he may show his early 2023, and 2021 form. We will see. That elbow is still going to be something to watch this year.

You absolutely have the ingredients. 1. An Ace - absolute stud in Lopez 2. Shutdown closer - Duran 3. Leader - Correa SS - If he performs to 2022 and prior you have stud that shines when the lights are brightest 4. Buxton . . . its questionable, but when healthy is a top 10 player 5, Young guns - Lewis and Julien 6. Kepler - young gun figuring out how to be elite 7. If we get anything out of Kiriloff, Miranda, Larnach or Wallner, Santana - if we can find 2 solid bats out of these 4 - thats a hell of a offense 8. 5 Solid pitching options with all 4 having potential to be your #2. Desclafani, Ryan, Ober, Paddack - all have the possibility to show to be a #2 - either through stats previously (Desclafani (2021), Ryan (1st half of 2023), or ability Ober and Paddack. Paddack actually has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in our staff 98 on a fastball, with a wicked slider and curveball, if it comes together with his bulldog attitude watch out. 9. You have the players on the farm who could give shot in the arm (Prato, Helman, Severino). Lee who would be an excellent fill in, big league bat - or assets to acquire another great pitcher 10. A relief corps that is loaded with solid options, and already 4-5 potential options in AAA. Right now none of them will be elite but all that are useable. If Duran is Duran - you have the potential to have the best top to bottom bullpen I have seen in my lifetime for the Twins. Some with some elite potential. Topa, Stewart, Staumont are very interesting. You have another solid reliever from the Marlins. I said it before if I were a betting man this is a year I would put some money down. Yes things would have to break right, but if so this is a much better TEAM than the 2019 version. The one pitcher on the farm that could shine bright this year as a starter or bullpen option is Canterino. He is funky, he is a bulldog, he has health question marks, but he has the stuff to be elite, and the college pedigree to succeed. Yes there is question marks - but you have the possibility for things to come together. You also have the possibility health wise for everything to fall part LOL. If Correa and Buxton fall apart - either Pablo or Duran go down with injury - and Declafani and Paddack are career injured players. It could get ugly in a hurry. I prefer my first scenario. 😉

I would gladly take that paper bet. Anything better than 81 wins I win right 😉

Also looking for a better Correa, Vazquez, and a lot more depth down on the farm. and biggest addition - addition by subtraction in no Gallo 😉. This is a much better constructed overall team than we have had in years. Things could still go sideways, its baseball.

LOL lets redo Losses Gray (yes) Maeda (100 innings of mediocre), Pagan, (primarily low leverage), Polanco (good hitter for 1/2 the season but have Julien for his position blocked), Taylor (maybe, he is still a free agent) . . . Gallo (why didn't you mention him Gains Buxton (healthy fingers crossed), Paddack (full season, possibly #2 or #3 stuff), Santana (upgrade over gallo), Topa (can easily fill Pagan roll), full season of Julien, hopefully 2nd half Kepler, and a bunch of other relievers that should be solid options at the bottom of the bullpen that we have been crossing our fingers in the past. To me this season comes down to the health and performance of Duran and Lopez. If those 2 are your workhorses, we have enough options to fill in the other holes in the bullpen or SP.