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The Wise One

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Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    Big picture. Sometimes having prospects fail only leads them to failure. When your club is at rock bottom your results may be due to the team around you . The lumps Glavine and Smoltz took might have been the lumps from having a poor team. What they had to figure out was how not to pitch on a poor team. Funny how their win totals went up when they allegedly figured it out e their peripheral numbers did not appreciably change
  2. The Wise One
    Twins were second in the league for outfield assists. Now consider that the Twins pitchers had one of the lowest GB% and the lowest K%. The outfield was busy, thus had more chances for putouts and runners taking bases. You both may be right on this one.
  3. The Wise One
    Glavine and Smoltz came up when Atlanta was one of the worst teams known to man. You can have the 1/2 year growing pains like they did because it cost the team nothing. The Twins last year IIRC were flirting on the fringes of wild cards. Try them out and let them fail as a way to success. You can have the mess that was Aaron Hicks. Adam Johnson was supposed to be can't miss. Tried and let him fail. Eddie Bane failed young. What good did that do him? Is Berios Smoltz or Bane?
  4. The Wise One
    More like Tonkin, Melotakis if he were right handed, AB Walker with an injury history, and Levi Michael. The other caveat would be that all of these prospect the Yankees traded were all younger than any Twins comparable per level. The Reds got 2 powerball tickets, a $5 scratch off, and somebody likely off the 40 man roster so the Yankees could have room.
  5. The Wise One
    JR Graham has a ways to go before one would one could even approach the significance to a team comparable to Williams. DeShields got one point in the voting total for ROY. He is also a long way from All Star, fwar 1.3, OPS+ of 95, he has a ways to go to bee seen as average. Remember this was about finding ACES as lottery ticket transactions, not above average or fill in players
  6. The Wise One
    Hockey has a cap that teams spend up to. No hockey team is "going for it" by spending money on large contracts. It is just a different method asset allocation. I thought hockey spending with their hard cap was pretty straightforward. Baseball going for it is giving up assets for a rental player. The Mets rented Cespedes. It almost worked. When Oakland rented players yet failed, Attendance the next year plummeted when the rentals leave. Now they are further away than ever from the Series .
  7. The Wise One
    Liriano was 13 years ago. Perhaps GMs are a little smarter now. High reward throw ins are not very commonThere hasn't been a Santana or Mitch Williams in Rule V for even longer ago than Liriano. Gems are very unlikely found in the scrap heap.
  8. The Wise One
    The average age trending downwards could me multifactorial. Better and faster pitching leads to average age going down. Better metrics would lead teams to identify poor developing and or over the hill players quicker. To say the age is up because of the popularity of college would say that going to college stunts development significantly. Remember the graphs are for MLB players not MLB and MiLB players. Similarly for international players signed at 16 might not develop as quickly
  9. The Wise One
    Somebody with the advanced snooping around abilities can find the answer to why Mauer does not get hits to right field you might have an answer to the lower batting average.
  10. The Wise One
    my bad that I forgot to also remind you what the Twins save in payroll one year does not carry forward to the next year
  11. The Wise One
    Bastardo still hasn't signed anywhere. At requesting 3/18 it could be awhile before he does find a team. He wants a contract like Sipp's without the one great year The signing of a bad relief pitcher who would provide organizational depth is independent of signing Bastardo. That pitcher is a low risk, maybe reward, but not named Duensing, kind of player. The Cueto thing is kind of weird as he was not an option when Pelfrey, Hunter, Santana, Hughes signing were done. Maybe had not one of those signings happened they could have signed Cueto. Then you might as well say if they had not signed any of these players nor Mauer they could have had Grienke, Cueto and Heyward
  12. The Wise One
    May's numbers as a starter look an awful lot like nolasco's career marks.
  13. The Wise One
    Pardon the derailment but I went digging around on Baseball Prospectus for major injuries—either major surgeries like Tommy John, labrum repairs, etc. or injuries that resulted in at least 100 days missed—suffered by each pitcher taken in the 1999-2008 window within five years of being drafted. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1656599-2013-mlb-draft-are-high-school-or-college-arms-the-better-first-round-risk Not every pitcher had injury data available, but I was able to dig up 41 major injuries for the 150 college pitchers and 29 major injuries for the 97 college pitchers. That's 27.3 percent versus 29.9 percent, which is way too small of a difference to draw a definitive conclusion about which side is more fragile than the other—especially in light of the apparent incompleteness of the records (which is to be expected given the elusive nature of injury information).
  14. The Wise One
    I don't watch baseball as much as you guys. I guess I watch what is going on in the game rather than listen to the person talking. If you need to figure out why the announcers talk the way they do go look at the comment sections of any internet media like stories posted on yahoo. Those are the people the announcers are talking to.
  15. The Wise One
    One good start after one bad start. Maybe the scouting director got one right.
  16. The Wise One
    The MO of the Twins is to wait and see. When they strayed they got burned.
  17. The Wise One
    Thanks for the link. I hope tonight I get a good laugh from the previous comment
  18. The Wise One
    Reliever statistics Blown save.. Means that the bullpen gave up the lead when it was close. By fangraphs the Twins have only 5. No complete games by starters, so that would mean unless the reliever gave up 4 runs before getting out of there for the loss being not to be a blown save. Loss, the bullpen has 12. Middle of the pack for the league. Those numbers combined would seem to hint the bullpen overall is not losing games for the Twins at a worse than league average. Their low win total would say they are doing much to keep them in the game or get the offense time to get them back in the game. That is the problem with mediocrity.
  19. The Wise One
    After September first the roster expands, so it really doesn't matter which 25 when they could have all 40 of them up here. Sorry to be a nit pick pr*** but there isn't a 25 man limit then so you can't artificially place one. Secondly, the Twins still have the fourth best record in the AL as the hallway point of the season draws near, you play what you have that is your best option to win this year. On a 40 man roster that really does not have a lot of age on it there are going to be a couple of younger players.
  20. The Wise One
    Anybody who has a contract and is beyond arb years will be here for the lengthof the contract. Players that would be kept on longer would depend on how they are doing. The only contracts that come due at the end of this season are Pelfreu, Hunter and bullpen arms. Pelf keeps a sub 3 ERA I could see Ryan keeping him. If other bats do not develop Hunter could be back for one more year. For 2017, even Nostradamus can't predict when players will develop. However any current Lookout with an OPS over .800 is a better than 50/50 chance of getting to the Twins in the next 3 seasons. The current Twins bench will be elsewhere. Any Lookout pitcher with a k rate over 8/9 and is 25 or younger has a good shot to be up. After Perkins, the bullpen will be all gone by 2017. The last to go would be graham an boyer
  21. The Wise One
    But it may not even be really accurate more than a generalization. That generalization is no different than an eye test. 2 different analysis sites differ in saying how many balls he caught.. That is not even showing accuracy
  22. The Wise One
    Eyes do see different things. Inside edge and the people who come up with DRS and the other statistics use stringers. When they can't even agree on how many balls were in play or played by a player in any given year, how valid are the statistics?
  23. The Wise One
    Statistically he is getting to more "OOZ" balls and impossible catches, for whatever that means. In regards to sample size, 190 innings was enough innings to say he is playing a better outfield than many here thought was possible. Wouldn't say if he will decline any worse than any other player. I am sure someone out there has access to some stats better than I do. They could answer the question if so motivated.
  24. The Wise One
    The same metrics on Fangraphs that said he was a bad RF last year seem to indicate he is so far playing average to above average defense. He might wear down as the season goes on, but they will figure that out as the season goes on.
  25. The Wise One
    Dear Jay There has been a lot of negativity. For a site that seems to be driven by statheads there are an awful lot of posts that show a frustrating lack of analysis behind the thought. Some people appear to think whatever they think the rest of the world thinks that way, except for the crazy idiots . People are who they are. Read the articles and consider doing what my mother told me when I complained of someone's comments. "Consider the source" and dismiss the negativity.
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