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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    This can only be a productive discussion when we put a presumed value on him, and then put an expected value on the return . Will he be valued in the marketplace as an ace? If so, does that get you a Top 25 pitching prospect, another top 100 prospect, and a Benninghoff type lottery ticket? Because if all he nets you are a couple of Felix Jorge and Luis Arraez types, keeping him makes sense, even if he declines as he ages, does it not? Those types of prospects are a dime a dozen.
  2. bird
    We're in a fairly low cycle for the organization's talent pipeline and yet we're talking about finding room for 20 prospects on the 40-man roster here. I'm pretty sure that fans for more than half the teams out there are not having this discussion.
  3. bird
    You're minimizing his offenses for whatever reason you have, and you know it. But I agree that he might be a good bet at 35/37. I'll bet the Twins have discussed him extensively, and are regarding his off-feild issues from a clear lens.
  4. bird
    But I don't believe GM's underthink it in the way you're doing. The FO is going to set a value for Santana. A buyer will have to agree to that strike price. And the same goes for the return side of the equation. Every GM in the business will establish a discount in their minds for prospects based on time to the majors and the other risk factors. To put it simply, you're looking for a buyer who overvalues what you have to sell and will give you a bigger discount on what he has to offer in return. I'm saying don't trade him if those things aren't in the cards. I believe this is how the FO is looking at it, and I doubt a trade opportunity will arise.
  5. bird
    I hope it depends on two factors: 1) How do teams value Santana? I doubt teams assign him 1-2 value. If he's viewed as a 1-2, then game's on. Because realistically, despite the hot start, he's probably a 2-3 this year and could easily be a 2-3 at best next year. 2) How desperate is the buyer to give you an overpay above and beyond that 1-2 value? I'm not optimistic about either of these things. My hunch is that there's going to be an imbalance at the deadline favoring buyers, not sellers, that Santana will be valued in the marketplace as a 2-3, and that teams will be covetous of the kind of prospects we'd want. Would you trade Fernando Romero, Huascar Ynoa, and Aaron Whitfield for Santana? I think you'd have to really think Ervin puts you over the hump. I hold on to him if he's valued as a 2-3, because he holds more value for the team at that price than the likely prospect package. I'm not interested in a return of Felix Jorge, Randy LeBlanc, and Zander Wiel. And I think the fans and players would quickly forgive the organization for making the deal. Apathy is running fairly high and players know Ervin is no savior.
  6. bird
    Yes, caninati04, and the Twins are linked to several Top 30 IFA's as well. They just use their OWN Top 30 list, not BA's. Thorpe was on their Top 30, but not BA's for example. The Ranger's preferences aren't relevant to the point, which is that any notion that the organization has a "strategy" of forgoing quality in favor of quantity is probably erroneous. And using a mention of the team being linked to BA's Top 30 tells us very little. Thorpe would be defined as "quantity", not "quality" by some simply because BA didn't list him. And yet, Thor[e received the highest bonus ever given to an Aussie at the time, a half mil. Again, he's one example of a high-quality prospect that BA missed but the Twins found.
  7. bird
    Um, she may not be smart enough to get him back...
  8. bird
    I'm also wondering if the whole quantity then quality alternate thing has been a real strategy, or if maybe that's just how things have shaken out opportunity-wise. Those signings are often the product of scouting relationships built up over time, not the function of some baseball exec plunking his fat fingers on a keyboard and deciding whether to add a zero to nail down a prospect. The thing that's interesting to me is that the Twins have a couple of the 10 highest bonuses ever paid to-date to an IFA. If things were evenly distributed, they'd be tied for the highest dollar amount and would have 1 on the list, right? Now, this year, they're linked to BA's 3rd-ranked prospect. And yet, we're wondering why they're not linked to more than just this one "top 30" prospect. (A whole bunch of teams are linked to none, right?) I'd submit that this link to "only one" has nothing to do with an intentional plan to forego the highest-quality prospects this year and instead bargain-shop, as so many suspect. I just think their list looks different than BA's.
  9. bird
    I'm sure we'll get the #freegonsalves plea just like we did last year when you needed to look past the ERA to see that his pitching efficiency needs to improve. But you have to like the K's.
  10. bird
    On the other hand, you can't lump a guy like Wright in with Eades or Wimmers. Eades was the 23rd pitcher taken his draft year, and he's one of 16 of them who has not produced one positive digit of WAR, and only 2 guys have given their team 2 WAR. Out of 23. From 2013. I'm not sure any of those prospects, with the exception of Jon Gray, were projected to be particularly fast risers in the way they speak of Wright. Wimmers was the 12th pitcher taken, and he has the 5th highest WAR, sadly enough. He's been edged out of the lead by Sale, Harvey, Pomeranz, and now Taillon. No one mistook Wimmers for any of those guys. I guess this tells me that taking Wright is cool, but if they have a high conviction level about Gore and it gives them a chance or two later that they otherwise wouldn't have, I think that would be interesting.
  11. bird
    Regardless of where he might've been picked prior to injury, Gibson was the 15th pitcher selected in 2009, and only 5 of those have more WAR: Strasberg, Leake, Minor, Storen, and Miller. Meaning 9 pitchers selected ahead of Gibson have posted less WAR than he has. I seem to recall a good number of the earlier picks being regarded as highly or even higher than Gibson, guys like Hobgood, Wheeler, Turner, Crowe, and Matzek come to mind. What's instructive for me is that 4 of the 5 with higher WAR were picked among the first 10 picks. So yes, your odds are really great if the name is Strasberg, and your chances are greatly improved with a top 5+ pick, but the risks are still huge with pitchers. And while a case can be made for Wright over Gore, its just like 2009, when the best evaluators in the business were forced to guess who would ultimately be of value. Would it be Crowe, Turner, or Matzek, or Leake, Minor, and Storen? Whoda thunk?
  12. bird
    If you're referring to these reports on the game action for the four full-season leagues, I think it's safe to say the Twins have one prospect that receives a consensus viewpoint of possibly being part of a core in the same way you might think of Kepler or Polanco. That's not to say others on those teams won't eventually become huge contributors. Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves both have a chance to be solid rotation pieces, probably with ceilings somewhere between Berrios and Mejia. Both are in AA. Lewis Thorpe might pleasantly surprise us and fit in that category too. So "nary a good prospect in sight" is a rather harsh assessment when looking at the full rosters of all four teams, and there are impressive numbers of truly exciting prospects still hidden from sight down in Extended Spring Training. Even looking exclusively to AAA Rochester, there are a few fairly promising prospects who could be future contributors: Chargois, Garver, and Granite come to mind. Additionally, we could see a resurrection and/or improvement from a number of fallen players: Vargas, Pressly, JR Murphy, Park.
  13. bird
    Blankenhorn thanks you for the anti-jinks. He was 3-5, 4RBI, a 2R HR, and flawless in the field. Our minor league teams won 3 of 4. Wilks, Eades and Pressly combined for the AAA win. Time to promote them.
  14. bird
    Mike, I thought a team could trade away as much of its international pool money as it wants, but is restricted from acquiring more than 75% of its own pool value.
  15. bird
    This fact is not all that meaningful on a forward-looking basis. I'm not terribly optimistic, but I'm mostly interested in seeing if they get okay starts in general from Santana, Berrios, Mejia, and Santiago. And if they can plug and play with a fifth starter that will at least keep them in the game every third start or so. From there, I'm interested in watching the RP parade from AAA and AA, seeing if a couple of these guys stick and give us MLB production for the remainder of the year. I'm not going to feel a sense of dread by looking at those ERA and FIP stats here in early June.
  16. bird
    All 4 teams won the day before. The Twin's four full-season teams have collectively won more games than the same teams for any of their Central Division rivals and have a winning record as a group. None of the teams is more than 4 games under .500. The current strength of the system is indisputably at the lower levels, mostly awaiting the start of short season play or getting a first taste in Class A Cedar Rapids, which is 32-24. And things will likely start to look even more rosy after this year's draft. It will be a year or so before we notice more effects from the IFA signings, but I'm guessing that quite a few new names are going to emerge from last year's IFA crop. And they have a large IFA allotment this year, when more teams will be restricted from competing for IFA talent. The system is better than average and trending upward.
  17. bird
    As a guy who sees more good signs in the system than most, even I have to say this is an uninspiring list of names.
  18. bird
    And if not Gibson, maybe Hughes. Or Gonsalves. Romero? Even Slegers? Not a great list, I know...
  19. bird
    Despite the obvious pitching challenges, I find it impossible not to feel extremely grateful as I watch this team come together. This may sound odd, but for me, a lot of baseball is about esthetics, and for the most part, this team can be beautiful to watch. We had a long drought of ugliness. Last year was often literally unwatchable. Especially rewarding is the outfield defense, but we get to see some beautiful swings and some decent artistry on the mound. Give me some more strikeouts from our pitching and a few less strikeouts from our hitters and I'll be ecstatic.
  20. bird
    They would have completely omitted any mention of the 18-35 Birmingham Barons had they an ounce of dignity...
  21. bird
    Word has it that Reed's 134MPH fastball maintained its velocity all the way to the backstop. John Curtiss? He fell to the 6th round in the 2014 draft because he sat out all of 2013 after Tommy John surgery. He also missed the better part of 2015 with the Twins My guess is that concerns about him recovering his health supercede thoughts about pushing him along more aggressively. He's making a seamless adjustment to AA, which is very heartening. I would guess that after the draft, when they populate the low minors with all the new guys, that Curtiss will be on the move barring...I won't say it. Derek Rodriguez is one of four Miracle players named to the All-Star game, along with the injured Chris Paul, Sam Clay, and Brian Navarreto. None of these prospects earned a spot among Seth's mid-season Top 40. The system lacks marquee names, but it is far from being bad.
  22. bird
    Cash. Good. We needed that.
  23. bird
    I'm guessing they were talking about something other than their respective crafts. Something like, "Hey Ron, I need a new shower curtain. Where do you think I should buy it?"
  24. bird
    This seems reasonable. I'm guessing Sickle's next letter grades will show that he sees the same sort of dropoff.
  25. bird
    This trade is a perfect example of why I think the FO should always look to trade from surplus for a prospect overpay at the deadline, regardless of the standings. In this day and age of the level playing field caused by allotments and more efficient information-gathering, teams need to try to create a long-term advantage for themselves by finding motivated buyers for their excess merchandize in the way they did with this Nunez/Mejia trade. The Giants knew they were overpaying.
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