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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    Let's get back to Tyler Jay. He's struggled. So have Burdi, Reed, Jones, Meyer, and a few others. Is it coaching that's the problem? Is Tyler Jay more evidence that the Twins are bad at selecting and developing pitching prospects? Do we really think they don't know how to coach high velo guys? Do we really have solid evidence that a bunch of pitchers end up having lower velocity after entering the Twins' system? Are the Twins coaching the velocity out of these prospects as suggested? Aren't Berrios, Chargois, Tonkin, Hu, Jorge, Rosario, Landa, Booser, and other high velo guys, and aren't most of them performing pretty well? Jokin, do you describe most of these guys as crafty, soft-tossing pitchers? Do you deny they are performing satisfactorily when healthy? I'm simply a skeptic regarding these notions. They are repeatedly expressed here and eventually seem to become accepted as fact. I don't trust it when someone uses a couple/few examples to promote a point of view while obtusely ignoring even more examples that refute the point.
  2. bird
    Good info, and Chris Mellen, the writer, may be right. But that report is over a year old, and Duffey has reportedly developed his arsenal and increased his velocity, and certainly his numbers are encouraging. Likewise, the pros suggesting Jay has what it takes to succeed as a starter may or may not be right. We'll see. The point is, whether we're looking at a small sample of good numbers or bad numbers, declaring that Burdi hasn't worked out as a draft pick at this stage of things is nonsense, just like it was nonsense to criticize the Twins for burying him down in AA, as many did. Declaring that Jay is a bust based on facing a few dozen batters as a pro borders on stupid, just as criticising the Twins for not planning to get him to the majors in 2015 like KC did with Finnegan was misguided. And declaring that Duffey is destined to be a MLB starter or reliever is also premature. That was the comparison being made. Sorry to have been unclear.
  3. bird
    I was finding humor in the whole notion that someone could declare that the Twins are the worst organization in all of baseball at selecting and developing pitching prospects. You recall that recent comment, which was based on maybe a half-dozen examples of prospects who are currently struggling. You concurred with the commenter, and gave your own example, some low-round guy named Tyler Jones, as evidence of this coaching incompetence. You might recall I questioned this opinion, mentioning dozens of pitching prospects in the system who are performing well and asking you to explain their success in light of your steadfast belief that coaching is at fault for screwing up a handful of guys who are performing poorly. I didn't get an answer from you, my friend, just a response. So, after 6.2 innings as a pro, now we have Tyler Jay. Have at it. Another example of coaching ineptitude here?
  4. bird
    Your wish will likely come through. A number of others disagree with you. The others are professional baseball people. I'm going with THEM.
  5. bird
    Huh?!?
  6. bird
    Yeah. And they need a pitching coach.
  7. bird
    How is Duffey working out?
  8. bird
    It's the coaching. But when Achter comes in, they bring in the GOOD coaches.
  9. bird
    Classy Twins catcher- Earl Battey
  10. bird
    Didn't virtually every team pass on Paul Goldschmidt 7 or 8 times, including Arizona? I'm inclined to think the pick was largely serendipitous and that Paul Goldschmidt had the most to do with his own successful development. Similarly, the Dozier pick by the Twins might be described as matter of some good fortune.
  11. bird
    Well, almost everyone knows at least one thing about him. He's proven he can hit better than Butera.
  12. bird
    I don't know diddly about "lineup optimization", but I've forever wondered if maybe the whole lineup order angst is over the top in a way. If the order remained the same inning to inning, fine. But in reality, the leadoff guy bats first once or twice each game. But isn't the real secret to optimizing a group of hitters about the relationship among them within the order?
  13. bird
    I'll take disappointing catchers for $100 Alex. Who was Derek Parks?
  14. bird
    Bruce Look. In honor of us needing a decent backup catcher.
  15. bird
    One other thing I'll say to those who are now claiming the Twins have some fundamental inability to draft and develop pitchers. Only three years ago, we were reading the exact same claims about their inability to draft and develop middle infielders.
  16. bird
    I don't care what the exact criteria might be as long as the comparison is objective and sound. The statements I responded to first were about the failings of 1st and 2nd rounders, guys like Wimmers, Perkins, Shooter Hunt, and Garcia, Bullock, and Gibson.
  17. bird
    I'll agree with this after someone shows me an objective comparative analysis. If we go back 10 years, examine the number of choices the Twins have had as top 60 selections perhaps. Then compare those to perhaps the 3 pitchers selected ahead of and behind those picks, and let's get a better sense for how competent the competition looks in comparison. As a second piece of this, I'd want to compare the list of pitchers currently on MLB rosters who were originally drafted by each team from, say, 2006-2010. Did the Twins produce a smaller number of MLB pitchers than most other teams?
  18. bird
    I think it's fair to say that Bill Smith has a spending bias that Ryan doesn't naturally possess. I mean, who doesn't? But it's not really accurate to depict Smith as a guy who independently decided to increase spending. There was a budget. He deserves credit for being among those who pushed hard to get it, and for his sizable role in building the academy, etc. As for putting a grade on the results of their pitching draftees, it's so easy to come to some clear-cut conclusion, and I find it just as specious to say there's a competence problem causing the results to be what they've been than to totally dismiss the results as being a product of poor luck.
  19. bird
    Another critical missing fact is that Carl Pohlad resisted repeated requests to increase the budget for building their international infrastructure, which was to include building an academy, hiring dozens of scouts, etc. . Andy MacPhail, Jim Pohlad, and Bill Smith were all involved in making this plea, and they were fairly accurate in saying it would take roughly a decade to reach a point where they had a formidable presence and elite capabilities, especially in the DR.
  20. bird
    This argument is flawed in so many ways. I'll point out just three. First, every expert will tell you that the odds of producing a superstar out of the draft are highly dependent on early first-round picks, top ten in particular, which give you over twice the chance to score an All-Star type than a bottom 20-30 pick. The readily-available historical statistics bear this out with unadulterated clarity. Unlike your adulterated assessment regarding the Twin's grade being "dependent on Buxton". Second, pointing out who got "missed" is about as empty of an argument one could possibly make regarding such an assessment. Even so, I'd put money on the table that when, in five years, you put Revere, Harrison, Hicks, Michael, Buxton, and Gordon up against the teams who drafted three players before or after the Twins in those drafts, the experts would conclude that the Twin's draft was actually That. Elite. Thirdly, Billy Smith never met an international prospect before he was signed. Never saw video, never scouted them, never built a relationship with an agent, never had an opinion about them. He had ZERO to do with it, other than to be one of the execs who convinced Old Carl to increase the budget and then to put ink on a contract or two that was vetted by the scouts and approved by his superiors. There is not a single international player signed while Billy Smith held the GM position for which Smith deserves more than a sliver of partial credit, and that includes Sano. So, can we please dispense from this tired and false attempt to produce a myth about the Smith Era? It never existed.
  21. bird
    In real life, saving for the future often makes sense. In pro sports, it's folly. Dang it Chief. I got this backwards.
  22. bird
    Yeah, you're probably right. Which means I'm not. I hate that.
  23. bird
    Okay. You're probably right. That would make me wrong. Dang it.
  24. bird
    I'd always be a seller at the deadline to any buyer dumb and desperate enough to overpay for my surplus. In 2015, our only true surpluses are #4-5-6 starters and a collection of rather mediocre, interchangeable MLB and AAA relievers. Trouble is, none of these players is going to appeal to a club looking for that one piece to get them another couple of wins. But I'd sure try to sell someone on Pelfrey as that guy. It just isn't practical to think we can buy a player or two that will greatly enhance our playoff chances, IMO. Even a decent backup catcher or 7th inning guy better than Pressly won't do enough. If we're going to win the wild card, it'll be on the backs of the players we have, and even then, we're likely to be one and done in the playoffs when we're relying on so many young guys to carry the load. Dangle 'em all, but reel 'em back in unless the offer is stupid good.
  25. bird
    Yeah, I agree with this. Before the current crappy system was put in place, the separators were twofold: cash and scouting. For years, Carl Pohlad refused to spend and the Twins were not effective internationally. Finally, they decided to spend AND had an edge in scouting and relationships over most clubs, and unfortunately for them, the current system was put in place. This system evens the playing field in terms of spending, and to a lesser extent but still materially, in terms of scouting. So now, the most important separator is cheating. Sad.
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