It's been a while time to update my evaluation of the field. First the Democrats while I see an opening for Sanders I can't imagine someone like Biden not taking it, I put his chances at around 2%, It's really hard to say what will happen with Clinton. My gut tells me Democrats don't make the mistake of going with her when other options exist so I put her at about 40%, while I think that leaves it for Biden Warren or someone like that you can't overlook Martin O'Malley, I'm going a hair over Sanders at 3%. It feels as if Biden wants it most so I'll go 30% for him 20% for Warren and 5% for everyone else. On the Republican side a lot has developed and yet next to not much is clear. One things for certain despite leading most polls the term Front runner in regards to Trump is mostly driven by Democrats. Mote then 50% of Republican voters HATE him, and not the I will never vote for Jeb type thing. Either the guy is an idiot or he knows exactly what he's doing and that would be destroying the image of the Republican party further either option leaves him undeserving of any consideration for the nomination. I'm trying to come up with a reason to go 5% or something but when a solid majority of the party hates you it's a clear 0%. Trump hurts the candidates who want to run out the clock so despite fearing Bush would benefit I now feel Trump hurts him still I have to give him a solid 20% shot. The other clear frontrunners are Rubio and Cruz. Cruz is where the tea party support will end up as the field clears, the #s of Paul Carson and to some extent Trump suggest the Tea Party might have the advantage I'm going 30% Rubio is the solid all around safe option but currently is lagging in the polls I'd go 30% if he was polling higher but for now 20%. It's tough to figure out who else has any advantage, the media wants Kaisich that might be good for 10% I guess I have to give the remaining 20% to the field.