Physics Guy

I'm going to post this without reading the entire thread. I've taken a couple of days off and am overwhelmed by the number of posts on multiple threads regarding the rotation. I want to comment on a few things that stuck in my mind as I read through part of this thread. I am in agreement with many of the posts that I would like to see the Twins improve the top of the rotation. I am very skeptical at this point that it will happen. As a result, I have to think they will do something to add to the middle of the rotation (better than or equal to Gibson's last half of 2017). McHugh would do that, I believe. I also think Cobb or Lynn could provide that. I would be fine with any of these. For those believing we can't compete without an ace, I ask you to look at the 2015 Royals and 2013 Red Sox. Neither team had a pitcher outperform Santana's 2017. It is possible to win with Santana/Berrios at the front of the rotation. I'm not saying the percentages are high, but it can be done. Removing the 9 starts by Gee, Tepesch, Wilk, Turley and Melville should help. We also had 6 starts by Enns, Slegers and Jorge, but I can live with those.

I don't blame the teams one bit for not wanting to pay $100M+ to any of this year's Free Agents. They all have question marks and the list of those types contracts not working out is probably greater than the ones that work out. The teams that normally don't care about spending (LAD, NYY, Bos...) are having a correction year to reset their Luxury Tax. It appears to me a combination of an unexciting FA class, teams not wanting to spend this year and possibly holding out for next year's class, which appears significantly better. That said, I really still hope the Twins are willing to bite the bullet and offer Darvish a 5 year, $125-135M contract if that will get it done. My guess is that he hasn't been offered anything better up to this point. I also hope they will push Darvish to make a decision soon on any offer and pursue Cobb if he doesn't accept. Is anybody else tired of Boras and his propaganda? I realize it's part of his job, but he comes off as being incredibly pompous.

I still hope for Darvish because it doesn't appear that the Dodgers or Yankees will be able to clear the space and still stay under the Luxury Tax cap. If they don't get Darvish, I hope for Cobb and adding Todd Frazier as a consolation prize.

Given that fact, I'm surprised we don't see more front-loaded contracts to 30+ year old pitchers. I'm not sure it would be enough, but the Twins should offer Darvish something like 5/$130M in the following increments: $25M, $30M, $30M, $25M and $20M. I say less the first year because the Twins still have $23M contract of Mauer on the books for 2018.

The Twins absolutely need to acquire a starter that slots into the top 3 of the staff. This likely means one of Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn. I would love them to sign Darvish, Arrieta scares the hell out of me, and Cobb would be my second choice over Lynn. I am not a fan of trading our assets from the minors to acquire one, but would be OK with a trade that doesn't involve Lewis or both Romero and Gonsalves. I want to believe in Gibson's second half turnaround and Mejia's promise, but the odds that both pan out this year are at best 50/50. Gonsalves and/or Romero will most likely get their chances during the season, even if they do sign one of the above FA's. I don't want them both in the rotation to start the season as that severely limits pur depth.

At his age, that would probably be for the best.

Wanted to include Garver, but chose to only include players who haven't made their major league debut. Garver would have been high on the list, possibly behind a couple of relievers who have had a cup of coffee with the Twins (Busenitz, Curtiss, Chargois).

Eades was probably next on my list. I chose Baxendale just because he has a better track record and his age indicates he needs to debut soon or become a minor league lifer.

Good list Cody. It would be great for Kepler to breakout and find a way to reach .700 OPS vs lefties. Berrios already had a breakout last year and taking another step above that would be great. Hildy also had an excellent "break-in" this past year and improvement above that would really make for a solid back end to the bullpen. My "breakouts" for 2018 would just be for Gibson, Polanco and Buxton to continue what they did the second half of 2017. I also would like to see Mejia get to around a 4.00 ERA and show consistency.

As much trouble as I had coming up with 10 candidates, I'm curious if anybody thinks I left somebody off the list that should be on it.

I see Wade as similar to Granite in that he's able to play all three OF positions and appears to be more of an on-base guy rather than power. He does appear to have more pop than Granite, but not the speed. He's likely a 4th OF, but with a somewhat different set of skills.

I agree, this would be a great option.

2017 was the season Twins fans have been waiting for. Although 2015 did offer a bit of a respite from several dreary seasons, it didn't feel as sustainable as last year's performance did. There are many reasons to think that the Twins may be on the road to a prolonged run at the playoffs. Our regular lineup has an excellent mix of productive veterans as well as young players establishing themselves, ranking right up there with the productive teams of the early 2000's. With this year's free agent signings, the bullpen has significant depth. This should allow them to bring up youngsters when they are ready rather than forcing them in due to need as we saw at times last year. The rotation has the potential to be solid, with the caveat that the Twins sign or trade for someone at least of the Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn ilk. There is great reason for hope in Twins Territory. With that in mind, I want to take a stab at something I attempted prior to the 2013 season. 2012 saw the Twins finish 66-96 and there was going to be plenty of opportunity for players to come up from the minors in 2013. I made an attempt to predict which players were most likely to come up the the big leagues that season. It was my spin on a Top 10 Prospect list, but focused on who could most help in 2013. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/324/entry-2284-prospects-for-2013/ Jump ahead to 2018 and this becomes a much more challenging task. The 2018 Twins have significantly fewer holes that the 2013 squad. It was a challenge to come up with ten players who have a chance to debut and rank them according to their potential to help this year's team. All players on this list would be making their big league debut. #10) DJ Baxendale - RP - Not a sexy pick to contribute to a deep bullpen, but posted sub-3.00 ERA seasons the past two years. I could see the Twins bringing him up as a long reliever during a stretch where the bullpen is overworked. The Twins used 21 pitchers as only relievers last year. #9) Mason Melotakis - RP - Could this be the year he finally breaks through? Melotakis will be 27 this year and while he continues to have relatively high K rates he needs to step up soon or he will be passed up. He is already well down the list of LH options. #8) Zack Littell - SP - Littell makes the list only because the Twins used 15 different starters last year. If it happens again, Littell likely makes his debut. He doesn't have the ceiling that some other prospects in the organization may have, but he has shown continued improvement as he's worked his way through the minors. In 2017 he went 19-1, stuck out 142 in 157 IP and had a 2.12 ERA. He only reached AA for the second half on the season, so a debut would most likely occur after the All-Star Break. #7) LaMonte Wade - OF - Wade is the first non-pitcher on the list, mainly because of the youth and strength of the Twins lineup. I just don't anticipate much opportunity for players to move up this year. If the Twins were to need an OF, Wade would likely be the first option among players who would be making their MLB debut. I could see it happening in the second half of the season. Wade appears to be a similar player to Zach Granite, albeit with more upside. 6) Tyler Kinley - RP - This comes with the assumption that the Twins either decide to keep him on the 25 man roster (doubtful) or are able to work out a trade to keep him. He assumes the position Josh Bard may have had if still with the Twins. I still don't quite get exposing Bard when it is believed Kinley has similar velocity but with less command. 5) Tyler Jay - RP - Jay would most likely be higher on this list, but health has limited his progression through the system. Jay is the first person on this list that I think is likely to get a callup this year. 4) Jake Reed - RP - Reed is my highest rated reliever on the list. He posted a 2.13 ERA in 37 IP between AA and AAA last year. Given the current makeup of the bullpen, I think he would be next in line after Busenitz, Curtis and Chargois (all have already debuted) to get a promotion to the Twins in 2018. Given Chargois' health history, he may only be behind Busenitz and Curtis. 3) Nick Gordon - Infield - Gordon is the only other non-pitcher on the list and would likely fill any needs for an infielder at Target Field. The only other option I could see making a debut this season is Levi Michael and I think we all know what the chances of that are. Gordon has not lit the world on fire thus far in the minors, nor has he been terrible. He just continues to climb up the ranks, spending his entire age-21 season at AA posting a .749 OPS. 2) Fernando Romero - SP - Romero has possibly the highest upside of starters in AA and AAA in the organization. He went 11-9 with a 3.53 ERA and 120 K in 125 IP this past year at Chattanooga. Health seems to be the only thing holding him back. He could use some seasoning a AAA before his debut sometime this season. 1) Stephen Gonsalves - SP - Gonsalves has the most experience of all the prospect starting pitchers and arguably the best production. He has a career ERA of 2.39 and has maintained high K rates throughout the his ascent through the minors. He got a taste of AAA this past season and will likely start there in 2018. He could be the first option for a callup, but might have to wait in line behind Trevor May, Aaron Slegers or Felix Jorge before debuting sometime after June 1. He is also the most likely player on this list to open the season with the Twins if they don't sign another starting pitcher.

You and me both. I would maybe even settle for a little less...

...nor is $47 million.

I agree with you that the offer is more than I would care to part with, but not that it's better than the Sale trade. Moncada was in the top 5 and Kopech in the top 50 of all prospects. They also got two more prospects, but for a significantly better pitcher who was also on a friendly contract. I've changed my mind from what I said earlier on what I would give up. IMO, Rosario, Polanco, Romero and Mejia is too much. Our cost to get Archer should be less than what Sale cost and if not, move on.

Well then put me in the no thanks group. I'd rather they sign Darvish and keep the prospects, even if Archer is maybe better.

I understand what you are saying, but we are completely speculating since the Rays haven't specifically stated what they want. Is it feasible they would want four players with equal or more controllable service time, including two that would provide significant upgrades over their likely current starters.

The difference here is that Archer isn't being paid a high salary.

Are you assuming that the Rays would prefer Gordon, Kiriloff, Gonsalves and Romero? I don't think the Twins have a package of similar players that have no service time that would be of equal value to Grosario, Polanco, Mejia and Romero.

I think you are undervaluing Mejia. When the Twins traded for him he was regarded as a likely 4th starter with 3rd starter upside. He is clearly not the prime asset in my proposed trade, but would give them a replacement starter along with the higher upside Romero. Which of the suggested players is not young and controllable? None are arbitration eligible this season and all but Romero are potential starters for their team this year. I also think there is value to the Rays in trading away Span's contract.

I would give up Rosario, Polanco, Meijia and Romero for Archer and Span. Other than lower level additions, I wouldn’t be willing to give up more than that. They are getting 3-4 guys who start on their club.

Agreed. As son as I posted I realized I should have put it here.

I'd rather have Frazier, but both might push Sano to DH more than I'm happy with.

By the way, you can dream on about Colome getting that kind of return.