Physics Guy

Those three above him were all college players who are well over two years older than Stewart. It's not hard to believe they would be ranked higher since they are more likely further in their development.

Kepler in E-town, age 19 269 PA, .297/.387/.539 Vargas in E-town, age 20 191 PA, .322/.377/.489 Harrison in E-town, age 19 (although he is a 3B) 253 PA, .301/.383/.461 Hicks in E-town, age 22 136 PA, .270/.382/.435 Did I ignore last year's stats? Yes, but he was hurt last year, so to compare his A stats is not fair. It is hard to compare Minier since he is still very young and is just starting. He does look like he has some power potential. Hicks had a nice year last year, but was 23 and spent about twice as much time at A as at A+. Vargas was a year older at A. Harrison is a close comparison by age and production, but I doubt they are willing to give up on him as a 3B. This is a big year for Kepler. He needs to stay healthy and show us that his year in E-town was not a fluke. Reports from the AFL were mostly positive. The only reason I can see for downgrading Kepler compared to the others was the fact that he didn't have great numbers last year, but clearly he was hurt. I don't disagree that the others are good prospects, I just think due to his age and relative inexperience that Kepler has the higher upside.

You do realize that Beltre is a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, right? I appreciate the positivity about Sano, but this might be pushing it. Besides his hitting accomplishments, he is a 4 time gold glove winner. Sano has the potential to be better, but I will be more than happy if he is close to Beltre. As for Kepler, who are the better prospects (especially at 1B)? They may get there earlier only because they are a year or two or three older. Whether they can keep Kepler out of the position is another question entirely.

KLaw does not agree. I'm paraphrasing a bit, but today on his chat he basically called him an average pitcher who threw a ton of innings. Not saying I agree, just sharing what I read. Also thought I'd point out that Morris was eligible for election the year before Kirby.

I think Hicks has a 50/50 shot, although I would have liked him to play winter ball. If he does, he should bat #8 until he proves he can handle #1. If I were a betting man: Pressley CF Dozier 2B Mauer 1B Willingham LF Arcia RF Plouffe 3B Kubel DH Pinto C Florimon SS

Nice article Nick. I tried to make some of the same arguments in the Florimon thread. I'm curious to see how others respond. I had forgotten completely about Kubel. Hopefully he provides some insurance in case Parmelee finally proves he can't cut it (which I'm starting to feel is true).

Now we need our first wave of young guys to step up and improve!

How many people here actually thought after last year's offseason the Twins might be considering such things as signing Drew and Garza after already signing Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey? It's nice to be discussing this with a hint that the Twins might even be considering it. I realize that a great deal of it has to do with salary that was cleared from last year and the extra $25M from MLB, but it's nice to at least have more hope going in to the upcoming season.

I know this is off topic a bit, but indulge me. I don't get it. fWar for Swisher and Bourn were 2.4 and 2.0 respectively. I saw the number for Swisher and was really doubtful he could be so high. bWar and fWar can have significant differences. Look at this comp: Swisher 634 PA (mostly at 1B), .246/.341/.423 3.8 bWar Morneau 635 PA, .259/.323/.426 2.0 bWar It even looks as though Morneau get penalized more for defense than Swisher although his stats are better at 1B and Swisher was below average in the OF.

Compared to Plouffe playing all the games at 3B??

I think we will have to agree to disagree. I think with a rebound by Willingham, more PA by Mauer and improvement from the young guys I like our chances of reaching league average or better. There is also the chance Sano comes up and helps significantly. I'd be curious who you think we should add. Drew is the only guy available in FA that I see helping and I don't like the cost. Three of the top eight scoring teams (those above league average) have more than two regular batters with .800 OPS or better (Bos, Det and Tor). I think the Twins have potentially three in Mauer, Willingham and Arcia. The more I think about it, the more I want them to sign Betemit. If somehow you convince Gardy to platoon him with Plouffe you add another .800 OPS guy at 3B. Outside of that, I'm content to go with what we have unless Ryan can find a trade for a LF so that we can move Hammer to DH.

I guess this was my view on the whole thing. Drew is the only upgrade in FA and I don't like the contract he is looking for, his injury history nor the draft pick we would have to give up. I was very skeptical that Florimon was that far below his positional average. I truly felt there would probably be easier places, such as corner OF or IF, where we could improve. So I did some digging: League Average OPS by Position: C - .708 (Pinto had .963 in MLB last year and .882 in AA/AAA) 1B - .777 (Mauer had .880 last year) 2B - .709 (Dozier .726, hopefully can stay above .700) SS - .682 (Floimon .611 ) 3B - .742 (Plouffe .701, .756 in 2012) LF - .724 (Willingham .709, career .830) CF - .738 (Hicks .598, Pressley .699) RF - .741 (Arcia .734) DH - .728 (Parmelee .663) SS, CF and DH are the three spots where we are weak. 1B and LF (assuming bounce-back by Willingham) are above average. C and RF could be above average, 2B is fine and 3B is a big question mark until Sano is up. There is reason to hope that CF can be better this year and there is no reason to do anything with Buxton on the way. SS and DH seem to be the areas where the greatest improvement could be made. If Sano is up soon, we could platoon Plouffe and Parmelee (or others?) at DH and maybe be league average. I think there is reason to believe we could be near or above league average at most positions. This clearly depends on some young players continuing to improve. Drew is the only upgrade I can see at SS and as I explained earlier, I don't think they should sign him. They could improve their lineup (and defense) by finding a LF who can hit .750 OPS and move Willingham to DH. I'm not sure such a guy exists in FA. After looking at FA, I think the Twins could sign Wilson Betemit. He is a switch-hitter with much stronger numbers against RHP. He would be a natural platoon with Plouffe and would make the bench stronger. He would also give us another LH bat on the bench in case Parmelee can't hack it. I also looked up league average OPS by batting order. How would this work for the Twins? 1st - .716 (Dozier .726 last year) 2nd - .728 (Mauer .880) 3rd - .774 (Willingham .709 last year, .830 career) 4th - .783 (Arcia .734) 5th - .747 (Betemit .819 career vs RHP, Plouffe .842 career vs LHP) 6th - .737 (Pinto .963 in SSS last year) 7th - .706 (Parmelee .663 or other options at DH) 8th - .681 (Pressley .699 l.y. or Hicks??) 9th - .633 (Florimon .611 last year)

No, I don't think I said that at all. I said that Florimon is not a serious problem as a #9. With that being said, I don't disagree that the Twins are seriously lacking some hitters for the top half of the order. Without looking it up, Mauer was most likely the only batter who was above league average in OPS for his spot in the batting order (Dozier might be close).

I would tend to agree with this. I argued this same point last preseason. Florimon put up a .611 OPS with above average defense at SS. The league average for a #9 hitter is .633. I have no problem with Florimon as our SS and #9 hitter for the near future. I also expect he could approach the league average this season.

Unfortunately there are probably more than a few voters who fit that category.

I agree completely. Getting to 3,000 is a long shot. 2500 is well within the realm of possibility. I have a hard time seeing him not in the HOF.

I take it back. With only five years left on Joe's contract and moving him to 1B, I like our chances of getting decent to good value out of his contract. I would say there is a chance he reaches 2400 hits by the end of the contract. That means he would need 150 a year for his next 4 years (age 36-39 seasons). It is questionable he will be able to accomplish that at those ages, but maybe he makes it in the following year at age 40, hopefully with the Twins.

He has averaged 1.20 hits per game played in his career. If he plays 150 games per year, that puts him at 180 per year. That would take him a little less than nine years to reach 3000. 11 years would put him over forty. I think for him to reach it he has to stay healthy (obviously) and put a few 200 hit seasons in there during the next five years. He has four seasons at 174 hits or better as a catcher, so I think it is doable if he is playing 1B/DH. If he doesn't get close to 3000 that contract may really be hurting the Twins in a few years. Let's hope for the best.

Kepler in E-town, age 19 269 PA, .297/.387/.539 Walker in E-town, age 20 252 PA, .250/.310/.496 Harrison in E-town, age 19 253 PA, .301/.383/.461 Vargas in E-town, age 20 191 PA, .322/.377/.489 Who is clearly the better player? I would argue Kepler. He was hurt last year, so to compare his A stats is not fair.

Maybe we should keep in mind that he has likely played much less ball in his lifetime than all the aforementioned players. Considering he started out the season hurt, I have no issues with his numbers.

Parmelee isn't worth anything right now. The only way he is worth anything is by earning a spot on the roster and performing when given a chance. If not he will be gone soon enough.

Agreed. Thought about None of the Above. I still think they should sign somebody, but I'm not sure what is left is much of an improvement over Pinto. If the Twins were interested in Salty, I'm not sure why the contract he signed kept them from signing him.

The number of AB vs lefties and righties was not much different, so I'm not shocked at this. I would hazard to guess that he was left in to face more good LH batters than RHB because he is a lefty. He does have a nearly 4x better K/BB ratio against LHB. He is much more likely to be successful as a LOOGY than Diamond.

Nolasco Hughes Deduno Correia Gibson/Diamond/Worley/not Pelfrey Spend the money on a C or elsewhere to improve the lineup. The only way I would consider it is if Deduno is not healthy.

I think I would be happy with 81 this year. The pitching is going to be better and we have a number of young players who could show improvement (Arcia, Hicks ...) and a few veterans who could bounce back or be healthy (Willingham, Mauer, Plouffe). With their additions at SP, I would think the floor is around 74 and I would think that Marta's estimate of 85 is probably the ceiling. That being said, it's pretty early to have a great feeling for what the team will look like come April.