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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I generally agree, but I'd guess these visits may mostly occur when the MLB team is off or on the road. Still, they get the big league accommodations (travel/hotel/workout), which is probably a welcome break from minor league accommodations. I'd liken it to a working vacation, perhaps?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    In the FSL, that OPS is good for a 124 wRC+. And he's been better than that recently -- .855 OPS over the last 28 days.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless you can find another league that saw a full run increase in one year recently, I'm pretty confident the ball change is having an effect here. Especially since the next single biggest single year change in your data here is the 2019 PCL adding +.7 runs per game, also with the ball change. (My guess is that since the PCL was already an offensive-friendly environment, it's hitting a bit more of an upper bound on scoring, which is why it hasn't risen quite as much as the IL. Also, maybe its players/coaches are already a bit more adept at mitigating the effects of extreme offense?) Obviously we'll know more about the degree of the effect by the end of the year.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, there are 27 players on track for 20+ HR in the 14 team International League. Last year, only 5 guys hit 20 HR. Yes, some got promoted midseason before they could reach 20, I'm sure, but the offensive explosion in the IL due to the juiced ball is huge. I don't mean to pick on Raley, but relative to league (wRC+), his 2019 hitting performance at AAA is still slightly worse than his 2018 hitting performance at AA, or his 2017 hitting performance at A+. And that's before accounting for the greater dependence on BABIP (Raley has a .403 BABIP right now -- I know some guys can maintain higher BABIPs in the minors, but that's Danny Santana 2014 level). That said, he's still having a solid season (especially given it's his first at AAA) and he might be a useful piece, but he's not really experiencing the kind of breakout that normally might be suggested by his AVG, OPS, and HRs.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Both teams should have pitched their respective Austin Adamses.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I swear I just checked yesterday and it said he was 1.3 fWAR for the season, which is about a 5 WAR full season pace. I guess he did increase his season total of wRAA (weighted runs above average) by almost 30% last night. Was there anything special about his 5 putouts in the field?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    League non-pitcher BA is .249 this year. I don't think "regressing below .250" is all that meaningful, especially when you're still picking up walks and XBH. Buxton's only once had consecutive hitless starts this season, when the whole lineup was cold vs Houston (and he only had 3 PA in each of those games, by virtue of batting 9th). I don't think he's been particularly streaky this year at all.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The pitcher didn't really "argue" -- just did the standard appeal while walking off the mound. The manager did the arguing to back him up, although he probably took it too far after his own ejection. Maybe they were just claiming the pitch was an inside joke to his teammates, about how the pitcher needs to get his vision checked...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not into retaliatory anything, but at the same time, I don't want my players pulling up short at second base and doing push-ups (while they ball's still in play, no less).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, theoretically most young international signees are in position to potentially have 4 option years. Although if he's good enough, he might not even use 3 options before he has 5 "full" (90+ day) professional seasons.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure about "in uniform" -- they may have run out of his "husky" jersey size.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure what cerveza has to do with Andrew Cabezas, unless you think of him as foam on top of your pours.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams will protect A-ballers who are good, because they would get selected. If Graterol had been Rule 5 eligible last winter, he would have been added to our 40-man then, despite having not yet reached AA. Thorpe, Polanco, and Kepler were all protected out of A-ball too. Obviously it's easier for some teams to stash players than others, but someone will stash a good prospect even if they're in A-ball. Especially pitchers, as it seems easier to stash them at the end of the pen (or on the DL). Javier could test the theory, for position players at least, this winter -- not sure if he'll have time to advance to AA in 2019.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB already got an extra year before Rule 5 eligibility for all players in 2006. Under the current rules, Johan Santana wouldn't have been eligible for selection in Dec. 1999, and would have been property of the Astros for at least one year longer. Beyond that, remember that when guys like Polanco or Thorpe take a 40-man spot, they're not necessarily bumping any meaningful contributors from a spot. Most teams have a few fringe guys on the roster at any given time anyway. And Polanco should have been eligible for a 4th option year (if not for an unrelated issue), and Thorpe is on track for a 4th option year as well, which helps make up for having to add them early. So I could see how further Rule 5 protection might not be a bargaining priority for MLB teams.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, but it's worth noting the AAA phase is completely different than the MLB phase. Each minor league club gets its own protection list, in addition to the MLB 40-man roster list. So the only guys available in the AAA phase are significantly more marginal than the MLB phase selections. Over the last ~13 years, the most notable picks in the minor league phase appear to be Omar Narvaez, Justin Bour, and Brian Buscher. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    There's absolutely no risk of letting Graterol go, no matter how we develop him this season. We just have to add him to the 40-man by November, which we can do regardless of what level he pitches at. The upside of rushing him would be, if we have to add him to the 40-man in November anyway, we could add him on Sep. 1st and get a month of him in MLB without burning an option year (just the 30 days service time). But given his innings restrictions, it's hard to see him pitching through September, unless he misses a portion of the season earlier. He seems like a pretty clear Sep. 1st shutdown candidate, like Romero 2017 before him. Mind you, I'd love to see him move up quickly and succeed, of course!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if they had a lot of school groups in attendance.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Or hit him with a pitch in a key at-bat.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't mean to be "that guy" (and perhaps you already know but it's a typo or autocorrect) but in the interest of spreading knowledge, the correct word here is "rein", as in a horse's reins, which need to be controlled ("reined in", "pull back the reins"). Not "reign" like a monarch does (although if we were fans of Royals, maybe it would qualify as witty wordplay!).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Rodriguez. We haven't signed him yet. We're the favorites to sign him once the new international signing period begins July 2nd.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Just judging by his usage/advancement, I'm guessing the Dodgers saw Bray as an org-depth fill in. Maybe they would have been fine to keep him in that role, or maybe they were considering releasing him in the near future anyway to open up a spot for someone else, and his name came up in conversation with the Twins and they let him go to pursue that opportunity, as a bit of reward for being a good organizational solider. I don't know what that requires in return from the Twins -- a nominal amount of cash (like a 33rd round pick's signing bonus), or a little extra cash, or zero cash but unspecified "future considerations"? A question for Jack Goin, perhaps? But it seems to make the most sense, in this situation.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Another honorable mention among partial seasons: through his first 175 PA of 2001, Christian Guzman had a .885 OPS, or roughly a 133 OPS+ or so.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco has a 166 wRC+ through 168 PA this season. But he himself also had a 172 wRC+ over a 170 PA stretch in August/September 2017. Which is encouraging, that he's been capable of this before. But should also give us pause to consider how likely he is to sustain this level for a whole season. His .293 ISO so far in 2019 would have been like Trout/Betts level in 2018 -- a power spike at age 25/26 wouldn't be unexpected, but spiking that much probably would be!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know that anyone ever doubted Marwin's ability to post a 81 wRC+ for the season. Let's hope he keeps his hot streak going, to significantly best his career 102 mark.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    What was Carew's best two month stretch by OPS+? FWIW, it looks like Brian Dozier topped Carew's best seasonal wRC+ (can't find monthly OPS+, sorry) at 2B over several different two-month periods (and even one four-month period): May/June 2015, June/July 2016, August/September 2016, and August/September 2017. Knoblauch probably did likewise over his best stretches.
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