Otto von Ballpark

Agreed, good to see he is performing like a more normal ballplayer again. Let him sustain this over a bit larger sample, maybe improve that groundball rate a bit , before promoting him to AAA.

It's not just the July 10th decision -- being more informed comes with more (or even some) MLB transition data on Meyer and May, which they can only accumulate after a promotion. Don't you think that end-of-season staff meeting could come to a more confident consensus with such data? Seems like every offseason decision becomes riskier without it (trusting Meyer/May too much vs too little). I will agree that today probably isn't the flashpoint, though. I think we had one flashpoint already in mid-June when the Twins chose Pino for a permanent rotation opening and tabbed May for the July 13th minor league exhibition game. I think we'll have another flashpoint next weekend after the all-star break and the whole rotation can be re-made anew. The final meaningful flashpoint could be the July 31st trade deadline, although there's already a permanent rotation spot open, and Florimon/Fryer still occupy 40-man roster spots, so I don't think the trade deadline is all that important in regards to Meyer/May promotions. (This could extend into the August waiver trade period too, although the later the promotion, the less data we get, and the data becomes less meaningful too as September rosters expand and the pitchers themselves get fatigued.)

Be very careful with this line of reasoning -- it basically nullifies all fan debate, which is why we're all here. We all know the Twins actions, and we all know the Twins actions are not always perfect. The interesting points are the "how" and "why" behind those. It's precisely because the 2014 Twins are on their way to 74 wins, and we still have Correia, Pino, Johnson etc. as interesting alternatives/backups, that I'd like to see Meyer and May get some experience this year: - better to adjust to the league in a lost season than next year's hopefully better season (think Gibson 2013) - better to inform our rotation needs this winter -- do we need to bring back Correia or a similar veteran starter for 2015? should we target a higher-upside arm in trade/FA or may we already have some? - also we will need 40-man spots this winter, and while it's good to sort through Pino, Johnson, etc. now, we also should know how many of these AAAA swingmen types we really need going into 2015. If Meyer and May can show us now whether they can legitimately win rotation spots in spring training next year, we can afford fewer AAAA swingmen on the 40-man This is where Burton/Guerrier are questionable roster choices right now (also Swarzak/Deduno) -- they are collecting innings in a lost season when odds are low that either is worth much in trade, and they are taking spots where Johnson, Pino, and Darnell could audition for their 40-man futures while Meyer and May get acclimated to future rotation roles.

Didn't mean to come off as snippy, I just don't see the Twins are particularly eager to do anything with May and Meyer this season (except get them in the Futures Game). And I really doubt the Twins are counting on opening Correia's 40-man spot -- that would indicate they plan to dump him via trade however possible. TR doesn't do dumps on a deadline -- he will hold on to the guy if the deal isn't right.

I think it's a stretch to assume Correia will be traded this month, just because he has an expiring contract (especially with Nolasco on the shelf and Pino/Deduno already covering spots). If TR is anything, he is rarely predictable in such transactions. Heck, dealing Morneau was fairly obvious but it took until the end of August to happen. Otherwise, who were the last starters dealt by the Twins at the deadline? Luis Castillo in 2007? Lawton for Reed in 2001? Dave Hollins and Roberto Kelly back in the 90's, but trade returns were a lot better back then. EDIT: I forgot Liriano in 2012. Was probably easier to find a beneficial deal for him rather than Correia, though.

Why do you keep repeating that the Twins are eager to promote May? When it was obvious to the world that Pelfrey/Deduno were not permanent rotation fixtures over about 2 months, and May represented the best combo of current and future readiness in Rochester, the Twins made no apparent effort to get May into that spot, despite May already being on the 40-man roster. And just at the moment Deduno struggled enough to officially open the spot, the Twins ADDED a different guy to the 40-man to take it (Pino) and nominated May to essentially stay in the minors an extra 3+ weeks, at minimum, for the Futures Game. And now you also suggest the Twins might want top pitching prospect Meyer on the team, but can't do it now due to a 40-man roster crunch... just 3 weeks after the Twins added a 30-year-old minor league journeyman to the 40-man roster, to promote ahead of May. Pardon me if I am skeptical on both counts. (An aside: why on earth would they care about Florimon's 40 man spot after his recent MLB appearance? What are the odds anyone even claims him? What are the odds the Twins even notice he's gone?)

But he wasn't "awful every other start" either. Arguably he wasn't awful at all. Dating back to May 10, outside the scuffling three start stretch I mentioned, Meyer made 8 starts, pitched 5+ innings every time, and allowed 2 or fewer runs 6 times, 3 runs once, and 4 runs once. All the while maintaining his season K/9 and BB/9 rates. That's not easy to do on a pitch count of 80! Almost any pitcher is guaranteed to have some short starts under those circumstances. To be clear: I would have promoted May before Meyer. I think early June was a good time to promote May (no pun intended), and like you say, now (or within a week) is the best time to promote Meyer. I have a feeling we're going to be 2-3 months late on both counts, though -- potentially pushing Meyer's promotion into 2015 and requiring an extra veteran starter to be signed as insurance in the offseason, since we will have no MLB data on Meyer yet (and potentially very little on May).

Meyer wouldn't burn an option year unless he was added to the 40-man/25-man and then sent back down to AAA before season's end. And actually, he would have to spend more than 20 days in AAA while on the 40-man roster to use an option year, so in theory they could even send him down August 15 without using an option if they wanted (assuming minor league season ended Sep. 1 or whatever). That would pause his service time clock during his shutdown, and allow them to use the minor league DL if he were to get injured -- that's basically what exactly what they did with Gibson last August, although his option year was already used up anyway. With Meyer's innings limit suggesting a Sep. 1st shutdown (which is fair, in my opinion), now is the perfect time to call him up. There is no real difference anymore in service time or options between calling him up now and him making the team out of spring training next year. So we might as well get some early MLB indicators on him, going into the offseason.

You omit that June 25, the Twins named Trevor May to start the upcoming Futures Game on July 13. Seems a weird thing to do if you're planning to promote him within the week. It certainly is possible that they had May in mind for a promotion sooner, but I don't think that's clear from the above timeline, or from their previous actions (May could have safely been lined up with Deduno as early as late May), or from their 2013 promotion timings. Meyer certainly scuffled, but it looks a lot worse because of his pitch count limitations. Here is the 3 start span in question: 2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 1 K, 55 pitches 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K, 78 pitches 3.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 73 pitches Without the pitch count restrictions, he probably logs a not-disastrous 5 inning "Deduno special" in at least 1, if not 2 or perhaps even all 3 of those games. If that's his downside, that's not bad. (Deduno's problem is those games appear to his upside.) And that so-called "awful" stretch was bookended by 6 IP, 0-1 R, 7-8 K, ~80 pitch games.

Yeah, my first though here was, "Oh, LEN3 said this? Hmmm..." But, I don't think May is or should be on any innings limit. He's been one of the most proficient and durable minor league arms in all of baseball for the last ~4 years. He wasn't going to pitch more than 180 total innings this year anyway, which is perfectly reasonable for a guy who had pitched ~150 healthy minor league innings each of the past 4 years (which is about the max you can have in the shorter minor league seasons). Pre-injury, they already passed May up for open MLB rotation spots for the months of May, June, and at least half of July by originally ticketing him for the Futures Game. And that wasn't to limit his innings, that was to keep him in AAA. I'd like to see him and Meyer up before September -- I just don't put a lot of stock into September-only stats, at least not when formulating the next season's rotation/roster. In Meyer's case, even the month of August and a Sept. 1st shutdown would probably be more informative.

Good point on the Futures Game assignment -- I forgot about that. That makes it pretty clear May was ticketed for roughly an August debut at best regardless of his injury. That wouldn't be a terrible timeline (I try to take a long-range view and not quibble about a few weeks in such matters), but still involves a wasted month or two while we do our annual "figure out what we have in these AAAA guys" dance. If May is pushed back further to September or next spring, that would be terrible. The Meyer situation is near that level too -- probably the only saving grace is that yes, I want his innings limited a bit this year. But I'd like to see SOME of those innings at the MLB level -- we're beyond the point where age, arbitration, FA, options, or even AAA performance are much of a factor with this guy anymore. (And at least one roster spot should be freely available after Florimon's recent appearance.) When was the last time a Twins pitcher made his MLB debut in the season-opening starting rotation? Eric Milton? It has been pretty rare. Get their feet wet now so there's a chance they can do it, or at least you can inform your offseason decisions.

It's unsurprising given the options, but it's also more than a little uninspiring. Herrmann's slash line has been decent this year at AAA -- but it's still largely AVG driven and his BB and K rates are still pretty bad. Plus, if his role is as limited as many suggest -- corner outfield defensive replacement and emergency catcher -- that's pretty much a waste of a roster spot on a team that's 3.5 games above the worst record in MLB at midseason. If there was no other position player available or deserving and we don't want another SP, I'd much rather see Tonkin, Achter, or even Meyer get some reps in the pen, even if just for a week until Santana/Mauer come back. I guess it will be moot if indeed this is a short term band-aid to something more interesting, but I've heard a lot of promises to that extent already this season without many coming to fruition.

Pino was called up before May got injured, and I'm not really convinced it was just fluke bad timing -- they could have easily worked May into the rotation anytime over the prior month. May was on the 40-man and performing great at AAA and they were already futzing around with Deduno -- Pino was just an extension of that, not a one-start patch. Meyer scuffling a couple weeks set back his time table? Every player scuffles for a few weeks here and there -- heck, we've had a few scufflers on the MLB roster most of the season. That really shouldn't throw off an otherwise healthy, successful, not-young prospect's promotion by 2-3 months or more. I for one don't want to see Correia discarded just to open a spot -- we've already got one wide-open rotation spot (Deduno/Pino) and perhaps another with Nolasco's injury. In fact, this is an ideal time to break in a starting prospect, because you've already got guys like Correia under contract and on the roster to fall back on. Heck, they could even go to a 6-man rotation for awhile and they wouldn't have to worry about turns lining up etc. -- if a guy gets hurt or scuffles a bit, just skip his turn, work him out of the pen for a game, etc. Waiting until September or heaven forbid next March to let Meyer and May face MLB hitters seems like a terrible idea. With no idea of whether they can claim a rotation spot next spring, you will either be forced to re-sign Correia/Pelfrey types, or dramatically increase your risk of a 2012-2013 style rotation disaster. And for what gain? We get to take a closer look at Deduno for the third time, or whatever AAAA starter du jour?

Agreed with your entire post, and I will add: a problem here is that Nolasco (and most pro athletes) rarely believe they are only "decent" performers when healthy. They generally have pretty big egos in this regard (and they arguably have to, to make it to this level and stick). I guess that makes it more important for coaches and GMs to be extra vigilant when monitoring these players for signs of potential injury (or at least equally vigilant as the real superstars -- in the case of the superstars, they want to protect their investment and peformance, but in the case of the Nolasco's of the world, they mainly want to avoid extended subpar performance). I wonder what that protocol is, for the Twins? Pelfrey's notable drop in velocity was discussed here at TD for at least several starts this season before the Twins did anything (actually, it was reported that Pelfrey took the initiative at that point and approached the team). Nolasco's velocity was down on Sunday but I don't think that had been the case in previous starts. I wonder if someone is looking for quantitative signs in this area, and pushing that info to players and coaches for more qualitative investigation?

Agreed it's not surprising -- this has been my suspicion all along. Which is a shame, because they have to add him to the 40-man this winter anyway. Adding him now/soon and keeping him up until Sep. 1st would mean they don't use an option on him this year and will position him better to contribute at the start or early next season. It would give him an extra couple months service time, but that really shouldn't matter -- we already control him until age 31 (through the 2020 season) regardless. The more troubling aspect of LEN3's tweet is the "if anyone" phrase -- if neither Meyer nor May gets a look this season, that will be very disappointing. Neither is young and both have done well in AAA. I think it is vital to know more about them, and see how they initially adapt to MLB, before the upcoming offseason.

First of all, nobody "builds" through free agency or advocates doing exclusively that. Second, the problem isn't free agents in general, it's paying a premium for a mediocre but supposedly healthy/durable pitcher. Was Nolasco really worth 1.5 times as much as Vargas? Twice as much as Hughes? 2.5 times as much as Kazmir? Nolasco was the 8th ranked SP on MLB Trade Rumor's top 50 free agent list last winter, but his contract with the Twins was in a virtual tie for 2nd biggest after Tanaka. I had hoped the Twins had identified some secret upside in Nolasco to justify the deal... but apparently, they couldn't even get the healthy/durable part right. And of the 17 SP on that MLBTR list, only Paul Maholm has pitched as poorly as Nolasco, and he has spent most of his time in the bullpen. (You could also add Josh Johnson, who hasn't pitched at all due to injury.) Several others are having disappointing years.... but still pitching at or above Nolasco's established career level. That's not free agency's fault, that's just a big, bad, conservative bet.

How soon we forget that PJ Walters started his Twins career with 4 straight quality starts (including a CG). This is the kind of thinking that got us into rotation trouble in 2012-2013. Pino should not be part of 2015 rotation planning at all, except on the fringes as potential depth out of AAA or the pen.

It's great to have another prospect worth promoting aggressively again! Berrios was promoted to AA about eight months younger than Francisco Liriano. (Although Liriano's prior season was largely lost to injury, which likely made them slightly less aggressive with him. Also it was his first season in the Twins org.) Liriano's promotion to AA didn't come until the beginning of August, which meant that despite good numbers, he was pretty much ticketed to start the following season in AA too. Hopefully Berrios has enough time to make a good showing at AA yet this year and possibly earn a AAA spot to open next season!

I don't know. Certainly, identifying the reason should help Nolasco eventually reverse course, either through rest or surgery. But, from a front office perspective, the Twins made their biggest FA splash ever, on a career 94 ERA+ pitcher whose primary value appeared to be his health and durability. This is a pretty big whiff so far.

Agreed. I would be surprised if there was a Twins pitcher who didn't have a sore elbow, or any pro athlete that didn't regularly experience some level of soreness. Obviously, Nolasco's soreness could be indicative of injury, but I am always extra-skeptical when a struggling player makes a point to retroactively blame bad performances on injury.

Pretty sure I would name myself manager, "Little Big League" style. And make the next owner-for-the-day fire ME! Oh, and I'd grant myself infinite wishes.

I think they usually try to include a player from the home team, right? Mauer was one of the suggested derby candidates listed on the all star ballot, I suspect for that very reason. Dozier's got good HR numbers and I'd root for him, but I don't think he's the derby type. (And no hair/hat jokes, please ) Willingham would probably be a better choice if you want a good showing. Too bad Arcia is all out of whack, he would be fun to watch.

That seems like a way overconfident move by a team with the worst MLB starting staff in 2013. The best spin might be that a few days after dumping Worley, Diamond accepted an assignment to AAA -- maybe he wouldn't have accepted if the Twins had another MLB veteran arm potentially above him on the depth chart. But, I think Worley was ticketed for the AAA bullpen at the time of his demotion anyway, and he could have easily gone to AA or extended spring training (he didn't make his Pirates minor league debut until May 6). And keeping Diamond's 6.45 AAA ERA wasn't exactly a "win" for the front office either.

Slowey was taking a 40-man roster spot and was due to be paid $2.75 million. If you think he's a longshot for MLB success, and you've had 6 years to work with him, then I generally support trading him (particularly if you can get a cheap, non-roster player in return). Worley was already off the 40-man roster and was making the league minimum salary. And the Twins gave up on him, for nothing in return... due to "irreconcilable differences" after one year? They had a free year to send him to the minors and together work toward the mutual goal of winning him his first arbitration payday, just like the Pirates are doing now. I get that not even the best coaches will see eye to eye with every player, and it's not necessarily any great shame to send such players on to other pastures, but the Twins seemed awfully quick to dump the malcontent here, particularly for a team in their position (i.e. rebuilding, with a league worst starting staff).

This was all my first thought as well. I could really see the Nolasco deal being trotted out by the FO as an example of "we tried free agency, and it just doesn't work."