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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Where did I say it should be ignored? Requiring a player to equal an excellent performance at higher level is not necessarily a good criteria for promotion. Meyer's "career worst" GO/AO rate is still above MLB average and would trail only Gibson among our regular starters (and only Deduno and Duensing out of the pen).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think I would take that scenario right now -- it would mean Meyer is a very good (and healthy) pitcher for the next 6 years! Arb/FA plans can all take a back seat to that.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course it is important. I think you exaggerate Meyer's struggles, though. Also, for the record, Correia threw 30 pitches in the first inning at Colorado two weeks ago. Nolasco threw 33 in an inning against Seattle in May but stayed in the game. A quick google search indicates Pelfrey and Diamond had 32 and 33 pitch innings last year and were allowed to continue.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite 29, but yeah -- if 27 year old Alex Meyer needs to be sent to the minor leagues for anything other than a rehab assignment, whether he has an option remaining or not will be the least of our worries. Same with the arbitration/super-2 stuff: it basically comes down to, if he's successful, Meyer could make more a few more million through his age-30 season (2020). Assuming we don't buy him out anyway. Not nearly as important as the extra year of control, although even that gets overblown (which is why I hope they don't keep him down until May 2015).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above -- Meyer could easily be sent back to AAA yet this year without losing an option year, if the Twins so desired.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Not exactly. Once they add him to the 40-man, he could be optioned back to the minors for up to 20 days without using an option year. So we could actually send him back to Rochester on August 13th or so if we wanted (because on September 1st, he can effectively be added back to the expanded MLB roster even if he doesn't pitch anymore). Which is why I sorta wish he had been given more consideration for one of the recent bevy of fill-in starts -- he could have always been sent back down after, just the 20 day clock would start ticking down at that point (although with starting pitchers, it can be manipulated quite a bit with rotation turns, as well as the all-star break).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Meyer's career-low GB/AO rate is twice that of Pino in his supposed breakthrough performance.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Even 4 BB in 6 IP isn't that bad when you're also limiting your opponents to 3-4 hits (and it's not just a BABIP fluke with a 10.5 K/9).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    He only had 3 "short" starts, one of which he was pulled after 55 pitches, the other two 70-some. Still only allowed 7 runs in 9 IP over those three, meaning quality-wise, they were far from disasters (roughly 5 IP, 4 R type starts for a pitcher without a pitch limit). And they were bookended by 6 IP, 3-4 H, 0-1 R, 1 BB starts (stopped at 80 pitches, of course). Sounds more like the ups-and-downs of any performer, not something that had to be overcome or adjusted for. Why do you always omit that May's calf injury only landed him on the DL AFTER the Twins committed him to the Futures Game (and virtually another month in AAA)? I guess if healthy he could have replaced Pino after the all-star break, but I'm not sure anything had really changed at that point from mid-June when Pino supposedly deserved it more. Here we agree! I have no expectations that Meyer and May WON'T struggle in MLB this season. But I want to see them struggle, know the nature of their struggles, and have an idea of how they can adjust before we hit the offseason and the FA market (not to mention how many backup SP we need to keep on the 40-man roster).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, although I will note that Meyer's "rough patch" has been overblown. Due to his pitch limit, he has prematurely been removed from almost every one of his starts since early May. This means, for his poorer starts, we either get the full result (where a normal pitcher would be prematurely removed anyway due to conditions/performance), or he is denied a chance to recover from a rough inning early (witness his 3 start stretch where he failed to complete 4 IP each time, despite only allowing 7 runs combined in all 3 starts). And, for his better starts, they are truncated from their full result -- it is difficult for even the best pitchers to go past 6 innings on fewer than 80-85 pitches.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Aside from the fact that the players above generally aren't in lower farm levels, and possibly match or beat Buxton/Meyer/Sano in terms of MLB ETA... Have the Twins sacrificed any MLB players to rebuild the lower farm levels? Meyer was high-A when we got him, but he was also a college draftee turning 23, a good combo for a quick ascent through AA and AAA (a la Gibson pre-surgery, or even Meyer pre-injury last year). Everybody else we've acquired has been AA or AAA, and we honestly haven't sacrificed any MLB talent the last few years in trade except maybe Span.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I hear you. But to be fair, the guys listed above are mostly NOT low-minors guys with 2018 ETAs. Heck, one of the two relievers has already reached MLB, and the other is ready for AAA -- should see them both in MLB, if not established as closer, by the end of 2015. The 2B has spent the season in AAA (albeit scuffling at the plate). The starting pitcher is basically at the same age/level as Berrios, and could open 2015 at AAA. Only the SS is a low minors guy, although given his defense and contact skills, if he was on a 40-man roster he could be a Polanco-style promotion candidate right away.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say we couldn't contend, or maybe even sneak into the postseason with some good fortune. Just that in the context of this thread, we are in no position to hold onto a shutdown reliever now anticipating a likely postseason appearance in 2015-2016. There are plenty of reasons not to trade Perk; this isn't one of the better ones.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I think we can all agree we wouldn't deal Perkins right now for either the Street or Soria returns. But, hypothetically, what about the combined Street+Soria returns? Sickels pegs that at: 1. Thompson, RHP starter, 20 y.o., just reached AA, preseason B-, midseason rank ~76-158 2. Knebel, RHP reliever, 22 y.o., already reached MLB, preseason B- and 136 rank, also midseason rank ~76-158 3. Lindsey, LHB 2B, 22 y.o., already reached AAA, preseason B ranked ~150-175 4. Alvarez, RHP reliever, 23 y.o., dominating AA, preseason C+ 5. Rondon, RHB SS, 20 y.o., playing in high-A, preseason C+ (Those rough midseason ranks just indicate they were listed among 83 "considered" for Sickels' mideseason top 75. Also I'll leave off the 4th player from the Street deal as the Angels sent a similar player to the Padres in return.) What do you think? Very rough Twins prospect equivalents, per Sickels grades/ranks: 1. Trevor May (albeit only in AA) 2. Michael Tonkin 3. Eddie Rosario 4. Zack Jones (pre-surgery, assuming he was dominating AA?) 5. Polanco/Goodrum? Less power, but great glove No top/elite prospects, but one reliever who can slot in your pen right away plus another within a year, a young mid-rotation candidate already in the upper minors, a young 2B albeit scuffling at AAA, plus another high-A middle infielder. Normally I'd say no to trading for more prospect depth, but... that would be a lot of prospect depth! And most of it ready or close to MLB.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting take on relief pitcher value: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joakim-soria-and-the-value-of-a-postseason-relief-ace/ Basically, relievers are far more valuable in the postseason (which means far less valuable to the 2014-2015-and-probably-2016 Twins). They also touch on reliever WAR and "chaining" as discussed here: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/4/29/856308/bullpen-chaining-and-reliever-war
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Duke Welker had 96 MPH heat too, although he was also 3 years older than Pryor. Lester Oliveros was bringing heat in that range, and was nearly 2 years younger than Pryor when we acquired him for Delmon Young in 2011. Side note: both had TJ surgery within a year after their respective trades! And were dropped from the 40-man rosters shortly after their surgeries too. Pryor missed virtually all of 2013 with shoulder surgery, so hopefully that satisfies the baseball gods for awhile. He's pretty much been injured or ineffective since April 2013, though, which doesn't bode well. Unless he looks better over the remainder of 2014, I can't imagine he stays on the 40-man through the winter, which is likely why Seattle was willing to deal him, regardless of his remaining 2015-2016 option years.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    You really have "no doubt" Meyer would have been the choice? The Twins have had a variety of starting rotation openings since the beginning of May and Meyer has yet to receive the call for any of them. I remember a month ago, when all sorts of posters claimed they had no doubt Pino was starting once before May got the permanent call; almost immediately, May was committed to AAA for another month by his Futures Game assignment. I agree Pino deserved "an" opportunity; it's not at all clear he deserved "the" first permanent starting opportunity. What's so bad about letting Pino take Guerrier's spot, and May taking the rotation spot? There's basically nothing Pino can do this season that can give us confidence in a 30 year old rookie holding down a rotation spot next year -- very much the contrast of May or Meyer. What's the rush to give Pino the first permanent starting opportunity this year? Wouldn't we be better off seeing how May and Meyer adjust, so we know if we need to add starting pitching reinforcements in the offseason (or how much to add)?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure how you can believe this. Virtually every player on a roster is "blocking" someone else all the time -- most of the time they are simply better than the player(s) being blocked, of course. Sometimes, when the better player isn't clear, the one in MLB is simply cheaper, or younger, or their defensive position fits the roster better, or at least they offer more potential/upside/etc. In this case, we basically reserved two roster spots for guys that looked cooked offensively and were redundant (if not also cooked) defensively, all through spring training and even into June for Kubel. We already had a glut of corner players and shortstops without adding Kubel and Bartlett to the mix. And we had basically zero confidence in either CF besides Hicks, who quite clearly deserved minor league time. But we couldn't do anything about it (add Fuld in February, open the year with Danny Santana, etc.) due to our plans for and apparent assurances made to Kubel and Bartlett. End result: Hicks is the opening day starter when he shouldn't be, and is stuck on the roster for a few months because we don't even have adequate emergency depth at the position.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Bartlett and Kubel were taking 25-man roster spots that could have gone to the rookie shortstop in CF earlier. It's not really Mastro or Presley that's at issue for me, it's just the absence of CF, forcing Hicks to stay in MLB.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Certainly pro baseball players can suffer mental illness just like people in any other occupation, only much higher profile. Doesn't necessarily have any connection with concussions or the sport itself.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    From the release, it sounds like just the induction ceremony is cancelled... will he still be a member of the Twins HOF? http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/268495992.html
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Pryor may have two option years left after this year, so we'll have some flexibility to send him to the minors in 2015-2016 even if he occupies a 40-man spot. He was added to Seattle's 40-man roster when called up June 2012, was briefly sent to the minors in late July for 8-9 days after a rehab stint, but that shouldn't have been enough to use an option year. And 2013, it appears he was on the MLB 60-day DL for most of the season, with his minor league appearances coming in another rehab stint. So 2014 should represent his first option year.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. He was on Seattle's 40-man.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    They actually "burned it" back in spring training -- players on the 40-man have to be optioned to the minors at that point if they don't make the MLB roster (if they have option years remaining, of course). No real transactional cost to freely recall those players after that (i.e. Polanco, Johnson, Darnell, etc.).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Randy Johnson is more the exception that proves the rule, I think. Just look at his minor league and early career BB rates, and what he eventually became -- that's a pretty unique career, and not a good precedent for anyone. Schilling and Stewart both pitched a full season or more of relief in MLB before age 25, not unusual patterns and commonly accepted for many young pitchers (although Stewart was very much a late bloomer regardless).
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