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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That, and he should get the benefit of a few extra PA's at the top. I was cool with starting him at the bottom, but I like the move up now too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, that's where my concern generally lies too, and while he hasn't been great in those areas, he's far from disastrous. (I'd prefer if he was closer to his age/position peers in power too, but that's not a huge deal yet.) Still very early, of course. None of the HS position player first rounders from last year are doing much of anything yet. Hopefully Gordon can start to separate himself from the pack this summer.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Here is a list of first round high school SS draftees: http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=pos_round&pos=SS&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&from_type_hs=1#draft_stats::none The one that jumps out as a potential comparable is Francisco Lindor, a valuable glove who was predicted to stick at shortstop. But even he topped Gordon's current A-ball stats, and he did it a year younger than Gordon too.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, according to Fangraphs he is the 4th youngest (Chang was born a few months before Gordon, although Fangraphs age sort does not appear to factor in months): http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=11&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&team=0&players=0&sort=2,a This sort of surprised me. He's young for his league, but not that young. He does not appear to be distinguishing himself in performance from his age peers: All four of the other shortstops age 19 or below were international signings, with only one netting a signing bonus above six figures. By requiring the 5th pick in the draft and a $3.85 million bonus, Gordon is comparatively much riskier.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, this attitude isn't unique to the Twins -- most forecasters had Gordon ranked pretty high last June and cited similar reasons. Not that I like that reasoning. People often like to say certain HS draftees are "raw" and require more patience like Kohl Stewart because they played other sports etc. Well, the opposite is true for Gordon, who has been playing baseball full-time since he was a child, and whose father was a millionaire pro baseball player living in Florida which gave Nick access to the best instruction, facilities, and opportunities imaginable for baseball development. And indeed we've seen some of that polish, in his speed, athleticism, and shortstop projection. Unfortunately, we haven't seen it yet in his bat, which is the one component where I don't think his "baseball gene" alone can carry him far in the pro's. By comparison, his brother Dee Gordon was basically a .300 hitter from the get-go in the minor leagues, stole 70 bases in A ball, and never struck out as much as Nick currently is. Admittedly, Dee was older when he went pro, but not a ton -- roughly a year and a half ahead of Nick, thanks to community college. But Dee primarily played basketball until he was a high school senior (he wasn't drafted out of high school at all), was drafted 127th overall compared to 5th, and is also 3 inches shorter than Nick for those that like to project based on size.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    5/100 isn't that bad. In fact, given his age, present health, and performance, it's probably a selling point. If Tulo was a FA today, he would blow that number away. Not that I advocate a blockbuster trade for him, but he's still pretty good.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree. Milone has been stashed as a 6th starter in AAA for much of the past year, across two different organizations, he's had a few good starts for us, but I don't see why his role would have suddenly changed now. (Although I'd love to see him toss another couple gems to make things interesting. ) I think Nolasco could be held out longer too, and eased back into pitching (read: bullpen duty) if Pelfrey and company are still healthy and effective.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the prospect names would have to be more notable than the other two names you mention.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Four straight balls to #9 hitter Miguel Cairo was a clue that things weren't going to end well as the top of the lineup faced Nathan a second time. The 4-pitch walk to Jeter should have made that abundantly clear. (He also began the A-Rod at-bat with a ball, then a called strike, before the fateful double on Nathan's 49th pitch of the night.) For comparison, Mariano Rivera never threw more than 49 pitches in a postseason game (he did throw exactly 49 in his first postseason appearance, innings 12-15 of ALDS Game 2 in 1995 when he was still ostensibly a starter / long reliever). Also notable, Shannon Stewart was still in LF for A-Rod's double, with Lew Ford parked on the bench. Hard to tell on primitive video at the time, but any time a ball bounces over the wall, you have to wonder if a better outfielder would have made a difference.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Gardenhire joined the MLB coaching staff in 1991, so I doubt he knew any of the 2002 Twins players from their time in the minors (with the exception of their time in big league spring training camp, obviously). Radke, Guardado, and Hawkins were the longest tenured Twins by 2002, and they didn't even sign with the Twins organization until 1991. (Gardenhire didn't even manage Mike Trombley in the minors, who ignominiously ended his career back with the Twins in 2002.) The rest of the article is spot-on (unfortunately).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not that it would take much to catch up to Turner on the offensive side, but even in that hot streak, Garver has zero HR and a .090 ISO (zero HR and .047 ISO on the season). For a 24 year old at high-A, that's not good. Is he hurt? That's a big-time power outage (.184 ISO last year). Garver's OBP alone seems to lift his wRC+ to 102 for the FSL, essentially league average. But Turner himself posted a 101 wRC+ in that league last year, with .126 ISO, 2 years younger than Garver is now.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    True. Although at least Bonilla is only owed ~$25 mil now.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It probably would have been smart to bet against the Reds on days Rose was playing in 1986.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe the reduced stress of relieving will help him make a smoother transition to MLB, rather than trying to get him back to starting effectively at AAA again (which could take awhile) before a call-up to MLB. Again, they can't keep shielding him from the test of MLB hitters forever. Last season, there was no MLB call-up because it wasn't in his health plan. This spring, it was because they still wanted him to start. Now, those two considerations are out of the way for the time being -- he's apparently healthy and pitching in relief (and not likely needed as a MLB starter in 2015). He's going to need to learn and make adjustments when he faces MLB hitters for the first time. Delaying much further, in pursuit of a perfect role and conditions, doesn't change that fact.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    My AL roster: Starters C Salvador Perez 1B Eric Hosmer 2B Omar Infante SS Alcides Escobar 3B Mike Moustakas OF Alex Gordon OF Lorenzo Cain OF Alex Rios DH Kendrys Morales Reserves C Drew Butera 2B Christian Colon OF Jarrod Dyson Pitchers Edinson Volquez Jeremy Guthrie Chris Young Joe Blanton Yohan Pino Greg Holland Wade Davis Ryan Madson Franklin Morales Kelvin Herrera Jason Frasor Brandon Finnegan Luke Hochevar I know what you're thinking -- "how can an all-star team only have a 3 man bench"? I just think this starting 9 is that good.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Meyer arguably should have been promoted last season, and could have been on a fast track in 2013 before his shoulder issues, so a promotion now would not be based on "only" 16 innings relief. If he's going to see more action in the bullpen before returning to starting, I don't see why those innings couldn't come at the MLB level. He's going to have to face MLB hitters eventually.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Nolasco has roughly ~$31 mil remaining on his deal. Elvis Andrus, $107 million. No thanks. If you are willing to essentially put $76 mil cash towards a position of need, you can do way better than a struggling Andrus. For example, that amount would have almost scored you Brian McCann or Russell Martin either of the last two offseasons, and catcher is almost certainly a bigger long-term need than shortstop.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Levi Michael has been exclusively a second baseman this season, as he was last season (with the exception of a few SS appearances in a rookie league rehab stint last year).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Wimmers did have a nice 4 game start to his pro career, with 23 Ks in 15 innings in high-A ball. But that was the end of the good times for him until now. I remember him described as a college control/finesse pitcher, maybe a lesser Kyle Gibson (or Tommy Milone). Is that still accurate? (Or was it ever accurate?) It would sorta explain why they didn't keep him in the pen after last season, or why no one took a bullpen Rule 5 flyer on him.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Raw FIP isn't adjusted for park, league, etc. By FIP- (100 is league average, lower is better), Ervin Santana is at 102, Pelfrey 106. And for his career, Santana has matched that FIP in performance -- his ERA- is 101 (Pelfrey's is 112). And Santana has 60% more career innings too. (Not really a comment on their respective contracts or anything, just some info.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Pulled from the Boyer-specific thread... Fein is the "eighth inning guy" but that's not an exclusive everyday spot, nor does it make him the clear #2 in the pen. Since Fien's return May 29th, Boyer still has the higher average game-entering leverage index. They are really more like "2a" and "2b" in the bullpen depth chart, and both will see frequent late inning action in very close games. And if you give every player an opportunity to fail before making a move or adjustment, you're likely to lose any benefit gained from prior good performance. It doesn't take any player evaluation skill to use roster and playing time decisions as rewards for past performance -- for the Twins to gain an edge, they have to effectively predict future player performance, and sometimes that involves making decisions hat on the surface run counter to the reward system. Not saying that they have to cut Boyer, but by this point they really should have found a way to reduce their reliance on him. Even more glaring, Thompson should have been optioned some time ago, and going back further, Duensing could have been non-tendered under the same principle.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Some of it is league context. Santana compiled that over some more offensive seasons than 2014. Also the overall team ERA is usually lowered by the bullpen ERA.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Here are some pics of the look: http://www.sportressofblogitude.com/2015/04/17/twins-players-rocking-business-casual-look-for-scoreboard-photos/
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    His 2016 option vests at 425 PA, and he's on pace for 603 right now.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Still I am in favor of no trade, because good value just won't be there. But let's not jump the gun and assume that good value will exist at season's end.
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