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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    So what prospects are you willing to give up? And if the A's aren't ready to throw in the towel (if the Astros fade, that division is wide open), unless the prospects are really good, they might just do this trade straight-up with the Nationals (Desmond for Clippard).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    What's our temporary hole? We have starters and backups at every position. When Polanco first came up last year, we did not have a healthy backup infielder.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for that info Jeremy. I hadn't thought about how that usage would affect scouts. Relief aces are certainly nice to have, but you just can't predict if/when you will even need them, especially at levels of competition lower than MLB where there seems to be more uncertainty in projections. (Ultimately Illinois did not benefit much from having a relief ace, and in fact had to switch him to starter with their season on the line anyway.) If he really was good enough to dominate as a starter, they almost certainly would have been better off working him into that role as early as his sophomore season (which seems not uncommon for college pitchers).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    So given the Nationals are in "win now" mode, perhaps they don't want the comp pick and would rather get some present-day value for him (even if it's less value over than the comp pick could provide). But what are their needs? Maybe a starting OF or first basemen while Werth and Zimmerman are still out? Bullpen help? The Twins are having enough trouble contributing at these positions for their own team, much less another team trying to win now.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Cool news on Meyer. I'm not a fan of the huge pen, but we don't have the pieces to make a larger bench more valuable at the moment either.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't we have a crazy injury crunch when Polanco was first called up last year? I think Santana, Nunez, and Plouffe were all hurt, so Escobar was starting at 3B, Florimon was back at SS, and I believe Polanco was the only other healthy infielder (other than Dozier) on the 40-man roster at that moment.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Eventually some player will be bad enough that they will accept the QO, but I don't think Desmond this year is that guy. The Nationals reportedly offered him 7/107 last winter, so even though he is having a rough season, he isn't some Mike Pelfrey type who's never seen a $16 mil contract. And even if Desmond does accept a QO, so what? You get a shortstop for one year, and if he rebounds you can offer him the QO again. In any case, the Nationals won't accept anything less than the equivalent of a QO comp pick in return for Desmond right now, and probably more. Not only would it a QO be a fair value for a team as demonstrated above, but the Nationals can easily afford a one year, $16 million bet on a player. (Actually any team could afford that.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That was discussed in the original draft thread (hidden in the draft forum): http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18552-article-twins-select-tyler-jay-sixth-overall/ In summary, there were some other good starters on the team, and apparently the manager liked the flexibility of using Jay in relief. Personally, I think the team and player got comfortable with the situation early in his college career, and the team didn't really have time to try to develop him as a starter (imagine if the Twins were guaranteed to lose him to another league in another year or two, they probably don't mess with his role either).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Has anyone ever accepted a qualifying offer? Even Cuddyer turned it down and immediately turned around and signed for only 2/21.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Robinson started 3 of our 4 games in NL parks already this year. There's your OF to give Torii time off (and Torii would be available to pinch hit and possibly come into the outfield in a double switch?). I'd be curious to see Kepler, especially with his low K rates, but making his MLB debut in pinch hitting situations seems like a tough assignment.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Danny Ortiz is not on the 40-man, so that's a consideration. And as I noted above, any position player call-up is unlikely to see action in the NL parks unless it's as a pinch-hitter, and I doubt they'd want to bring up a guy for his first MLB at-bat in a key pinch-hitting situation. Polanco would probably be best -- already on the 40-man, has a few games MLB experience already, could fare OK with the bat in a pinch hit spot (reasonably low K rate). Or finally start auditioning new relievers like we should have been doing awhile ago.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    But they haven't shown much interest in pinch-hitting for position players, so why would they need a particular defensive replacement? They've got a backup infielder, backup outfielder, backup catcher, and a pinch hitter (Vargas). Under what non-emergency circumstances would they need more warm position player bodies? It should be noted that in Bernier's previous 15 day stint in MLB this season, he appeared in the 8th inning of blowouts 3 times, and started once when Plouffe was attending a funeral. That's it. And he did not appear in either of our games in NL parks (one of which went 13 innings). He's an emergency replacement at best. I'd prefer an attempt to find a more useful player, even if it is just for a pinch-hitting or relief role. Virtually everyone already on the roster could perform Doug Bernier's responsibilities without incident for a few innings in case on emergency. Not arguing with you, mind you -- I think we all agree this would be a bad idea? Arguing with the potential Twins call-up of Bernier.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, what's up with KC's plan for Finnegan this year? He's already moved between levels six times, with only a couple brief forays into starting in the minors but mostly low-leverage MLB relief work (his .6 leverage index matching Stauffer's). I think Finnegan may have been more ticketed for the bullpen from the get-go than originally assumed (he was only the 17th pick, with a signing bonus of barely half Jay's). Or the contending Royals have been too tempted by having him available on the 40-man roster? Either way, not ideal outcomes for Jay and the Twins. Not that I think Jay to MLB is particularly likely this season anyway...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    It should be noted that Finnegan's regular season numbers were good, but he pitched almost exclusively in Royals losses. He got only one hold in 7 games (pitching the 7th inning of a 2-run win), but also picked up a loss (allowing the tying and go-ahead runs to score in another appearance). In the postseason, he first made a name for himself in the wild card game, but he only came in to pitch when the game was already in extra innings after Oakland blew a big lead. His other key appearance was in ALDS game 2 where he pitched the 10th inning. After that, he was often more of a liability than an asset in the ALCS and World Series. Finnegan was way down the KC bullpen depth chart, well-protected by other relievers and only deployed under special circumstances (extra inning postseason games). The Twins as currently constructed would almost certainly be counting on Jay as primary option in the regular season, so he could be more quickly exposed before we even get to the unlikely point of postseason extra inning games where Finnegan made his mark.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    That's true, it would be no trouble to GET Jay on the 40-man roster, but there is no doubt he would likely block other prospects there this winter, and for dubious benefit.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    He did turn that down in rumor, although that was a year ago and we really don't know the details. He might actually come close to that if he winds up with an Ervin Santana type deal plus his 2015 arbitration award. Still doesn't suggest he's really overrated -- yet.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    There are 3 NL shortstops with OPS's over .800 this year. Correa and Lowrie are also over .800 but don't yet qualify. Also, you make it sound like it's easy to post that kind of OPS. Iglesias is achieving it with a .358 BABIP and tiny 9.1 K%, Boegarts with a .330 BABIP, .113 ISO, and solid 13.6 K%. (And the Red Sox hope Bogaerts will improve.) At this point, one year into his pro career, Gordon hitting numbers like that is still almost entirely projection. (Note that at Gordon's age, Boegarts was posting an .896 OPS across high-A and AA.) Not to mention, if .700-.750 OPS ends up as his "peak" ability, his offensive performance may veer close to .600 some years too (i.e. Alcides Escobar, Elvis Andrus).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, Ervin Santana himself was seeking a $100 million deal two years ago. Shark's not necessarily going to get that kind of money. Since he hasn't yet from the White Sox, despite rumors around the time they acquired him, and he's laid an egg in the first half of the season, I highly doubt he will fetch that kind of money. At this point, the evidence of his over-datedness is that he was traded (with another decent SP) for a top prospect in the middle of perhaps his career year, and then flipped again for a couple lesser prospects after said season, entering his walk year. In actuality, he might just be a poster boy for the new draft compensation rules -- his trade value was set to plummet as soon as the 2015 season began, because the acquiring team could not get a comp pick for him. So the Cubs sent him packing early, the A's bought him early so they could use him and flip him, and the White Sox bought him early enough to keep the qualifying offer and draft compensation in play.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, nobody's asking him to try to be the next A-Rod, or start training with Sano. But at this point, I'm not ready to settle for a banjo bat, banking on projected defense. If he doesn't start consistently limiting his K's and posting high BABIPs like his brother (or Ben Revere), he should probably add some strength and tweak his swing for at least a little more ISO (.100 range) if he is capable, or he may not stick as a regular regardless of defense.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I must correct myself: Dee is listed only 1 inch shorter than Nick. Somehow misread Nick's height as 6'2" when he's actually listed at 6' even. (Tom Gordon was only 5'9" so I suspect Nick won't get taller.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Hard to say about Gardenhire. I don't think he had many good young players (or good players, period) to work with from 2011-2014. The pitching coach is a definitely a stronger factor.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    According to this, the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Rockies also did it in the early goings this season: http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/More-teams-experiment-with-batting-pitcher-8th-6227286.php But yeah, Maddon has taken it to the next level for the Cubs. Molitor didn't bat the pitcher 8th in Pittsburgh last month, so I wonder if it was primarily about batting Buxton ninth. Will be interesting to see our next lineup in an NL park.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Gibson has definitely been trending up in that regard. He's leapfrogged Pelf, who's K/9 has held pretty steady at 4.2.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Since the start of 2014: ERA 4.10 FIP 4.01 xFIP 4.03 The "breaking" appears to be occurring this year, and it's less than half a season so far (although I obviously hope it lasts).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, when they signed him to that contract (5/65 covering 2 arb years), Danks was a 26 year old with almost no injury history and a 119 ERA+ over his last 124 starts. Then, only 2 months into the contract, he needed shoulder surgery. He's definitely the weak link in that rotation now, no doubt. I'd probably swap him for Erik Johnson. Carson Fulmer could apply some pressure before too long as well (although they may have to replace Shark next year also).
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