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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    You're quoting stats from intrasquad games now? Look, Walker is an interesting player, who is having a VERY interesting season. I'd guess most folks here wouldn't mind his promotion to AAA right now, and if not for a possible 40-man roster crunch, a potential September promotion to MLB too. Don't know what more you want, or what you want to convince folks of.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    As others allude to, it was never really Gilmartin vs. Graham. Gilmartin could have taken the 40-man spot from Oliveros, Pryor, Darnell, Duensing, Thielbar, Thompson, Schafer, etc., and been stashed in AAA if we so desired. And we still could have added Graham as a Rule 5'er ticketed for the MLB pen. Personally, given Gilmartin's splits and our lack of quality LHP in the pen, I would have auditioned him as a reliever last year in MLB, to see if he could have been a better fit for our 40-man roster than some of the other names above (Duensing and his salary being the obvious one). Basically, last year's Taylor Rogers. Although Gilmartin is actually doing better against RHB than LHB for the Mets now, so who knows if he will be a bullpen asset long-term.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Nobody is claiming any great precision for defensive metrics here either. Just that it's better to include them when evaluating a player's overall performance over a large enough sample, rather than to use offense only and some ambigious eye test adjustment for defense. I seriously doubt that BIS stringer accuracy has much of an impact on the current DRS or UZR of Fielder and Hosmer (which, lo and behold, are pretty much in line with their career numbers and usage -- i.e. Fielder at DH).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Ryan is still only 26 years old, just two years old than Jason. I doubt he's looking to retire. And his recent performances have been questionable enough that I doubt he would ask for his release because of his brother.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I am sure a slow bat doesnt help, but if this was true, wouldn't we have seen someone, somewhere with a "fast bat" make a successful transition to MLB despite similar minor league SO and BB rates?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, Kingman posted an 11% BB rate in the minors, 8.2% in the majors (peaking much higher), as opposed to Walker's current 7% career BB rate in the minors. There really isn't a successful MLB comp that combines Walker's K's with his low BB's.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Past qualifying offers to SP: Kuroda (twice) Lohse (coming off a 133 ERA+, and 121 over 2 seasons) Santana (twice, coming off a 127 ERA+ and then 109 over 2 seasons) Jimenez (coming of a 115 ERA+, with a 112 career mark) Scherzer Shields Liriano After his clunker the other night, Pelfrey is down to a 105 ERA+ with a notably below average FIP, 89 ERA+ for his career, and was basically replacement level or injured for the previous 4 seasons. The odds of him even being a QO candidate, which were low to begin with, have dropped to near-zero, I think. He would probably have the worst combination of recent + career performance to ever get a QO. (Even Stephen Drew was coming off a 111 OPS+, career 98, and ~15 WAR over parts of 8 seasons. Pelfrey is at 6.8 bWAR, 11.3 fWAR over parts of 10 seasons.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It doesn't take hindsight to question the deal. The Twins had Gibson healthy at AAA (ranked just behind Meyer on BA's Top 100, lower upside by higher floor), had just drafted Berrios (plus Duffey, Baxendale, and Rogers), had just signed Thorpe and Hu, were a week away from trading for May, and had ensured the draft position for 2013 that enabled them to take Stewart (plus Eades and Gonsalves), plus the international bonus pool that enabled them to hand out a top 10 bonus without penalty (although they gave it to a position player). Was it really necessary to give up an affordable MLB asset for the next 3 years, without an immediate replacement, in a one-for-one trade for one more lower-level (high-A ball), not yet elite SP prospect?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    A lot of guys are acceptable as "the 25th guy on the roster". The Twins have usually had several of them the past few years. And I'm not sure anyone here is advocating cutting him. Just wondering what the heck his role is -- right now, it's trending towards mis-cast as starter...
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    This year's 100 PA aside, Nunez has been a pretty consistent ~86 OPS+ hitter for the first 1000 PA of his career. I don't really know if that is "decent" to you, but it's probably not acceptable at any position unless it is accompanied by plus defense.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd probably want to challenge him this year too. Probably a call-up to AAA now, and if he acquits himself well, a September call-up to MLB. Get a little more info on him before you have to make the 40-man roster decision this winter. It would be very interesting if someone made him a Rule 5 pick, though!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    At a lower level, it might be excusable because a better fitting helmet might not be easily available, and the player probably isn't compensated much if at all, so you might give them some leeway to do their thing. But there's really no excuse for an MLB player. And no excuse for his manager/GM/teammates not to compel him to do so.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I sometimes liked to wear my cap loose in the outfield, so it would fly off for effect when I ran hard to make a catch. Obviously I'd wear it tighter if the sun was an issue, but otherwise it served no real purpose anyway. Batting helmet? Not a huge risk to lose it around the bases, but there's at least a chance that a throw might come near your head, or you might collide with someone or something on a slide, I'd think I would want to keep it on.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Trout took the Gallo path too (AA to MLB back to AAA).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't be surprised if some of the teams weren't using it at all except to double-check some of their own data. Still, picking on the "poor 20-somethings charting plays" seems like a petty (and misleading) grievance with defensive metrics. There are plenty of real issues with the metrics which are freely admitted (notably the small samples and the sometimes unpredictable human subjects ).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The Yankees' $30 mil figure already included the penalties.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, all teams can. Most teams have already dropped $10+ mil on one amateur talent, and some have spent much, much more than that. I think they could all afford $30 mil for 10 of the top 30 guys in a given signing period, like the Yankees just did. (Actually the Yankees tried to spend $80 mil, but Moncada declined their offer and signed with Boston.) They don't necessarily have to spend that much in this market, because of the restrictions in place and because some of these guys are real crapshoots, but they could all afford it.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If by "charting plays" you mean, someone is charting shifts, triangulating hit location to precise zones/vectors, and timing the ball between contact and ground/glove, and someone else is double-checking it all on video, then sure, "charting plays." Like any data collection set, I am sure it's not perfect, but 21 of 30 MLB teams are paying for it, so I am guessing its imperfections aren't too detrimental to its usefulness.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, I overlooked your follow-up post, didn't mean to pick on you. I was busy checking Ozzie's TotalZone numbers, I think.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That tiny sample isn't particularly meaningful, either way. Discount his debut and his last game (where he was apparently battling the thumb injury) and the OPS climbs to .635 and the K rate drops to 29%. Obviously, he's no star at the plate yet, and he may not even be ready to hold his own at the plate in MLB, but 39 PA's is probably too little to really conclude that, for a player with his track record and pedigree.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually wouldn't want him taking 2 months off from 3B completely right now -- but he wouldn't have to. He could get at least 1-2 starts a week at 3B, and more if/when Plouffe gets dinged up (or Mauer, with Plouffe sliding over to 1B). And if he's lost at the plate, send him back down to AAA where he can play 3B every day again.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like Hessman had almost double Walker's walk rate. But he certainly had some big K and power seasons in the minors, and a MLB career that looks like Bernardo Brito's.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Adam Jones had about 70 PA in each of 2006-2007. His career K% is 19.1, about half Walker's current rate in AA. His career minor league K rate looks to have been 20.6%.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    For a minor league Walker comp, how about Bernardo Brito? A career 24.5 K% (in a lower strikeout era), versus only a 5.6 BB%, with a .270 AVG and .226 ISO. His age 23 slash line in AA looked very pre-2015 Walker-esque (.277/.316/.498). http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=bernardo-brito Admittedly, Walker is going insane this year. 23 HR in 71 games, with a .340 ISO. It's definitely putting him on the intrigue list more than his pre-2015 accomplishments. Regardless of his prospect outlook, it will be fun to see if he can maintain it for the full season or through a promotion to AAA. (Full disclosure: if Twins Daily had been around in the early 1990's, my adolescent self may have posted as a Brito fanboy )
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, if the Twins go over next year, I don't think they will be free of penalties under a new system.
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