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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the Padres might be inclined to try moving Benoit ahead of the market. It seems they need him less and owe him more than a lot of the other teams and names suggested. If we could swing a Benoit now (who might come for a Taylor Rogers type), we could still try to work a deal for another reliever. And it would reduce the odds that we get shut out come August 1st.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with you. Benoit should be cheaper. I am refuting the other poster who claims we should pass on Benoit at any price and pursue a better arm, because the better arms won't come cheap. They will be more like Miller or Soria returns, if they are moved at all. Thompson's ranking jumped, but he was a 2012 draftee who had already debuted in AA at age 20, not as good but on a similar path as Berrios. His ranking was going to jump regardless of what organization he was in. And Rodriguez's ranking mostly held constant before and after the trade. Point is, it's going to take a prospect at that level, with that kind of potential, to land one of the top tier relievers. NOT Taylor Rogers.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Wrong Jake Thompson. The one the Rangers got was BA's #43 prospect this season. Eduardo Rodriguez was BA's #65 prospect entering 2014 before the trade, and #59 entering 2015 just after the trade. These guys were not Taylor Rogers. And James Russell is a LOOGY with a career 6.6 K/9. He's more like Brian Duensing than any of the trade targets you've suggested.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Taylor Rogers is your answer here? A guy many are comparing to Sean Gilmartin, who was traded for the empty shell of Ryan Doumit and then became a Rule 5 pick? In return for a dominant closer / set-up man, all except Lowe offering multiple years of team control at sometimes bargain rates? No wonder you have no interest in Benoit -- you also seem to have no interest in realistic trade proposals. I am surprised you didn't also suggest throwing in Duensing.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    As I noted above, limiting hits has actually been Achter's calling card the past couple years, rather than any standout performance in strikeouts or walks. So it's no surprise his FIP is higher. From another thread, I notice that Joaquin Benoit has had a similar discrepancy the past few years at the MLB level, so I wonder if FIP is slightly less useful for judging relievers? That is, it's actually possible for a reliever with decent strikeout skills to sustain a H/9 figure around 5 for multiple seasons, which would be almost impossible for a starter.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Everyone on that list is almost certainly more expensive than Benoit right now, some significantly so. Ramos and the two Smiths are all making the league minimum and are team controlled for 3+ more seasons beyond this year -- very little motivation for their teams to trade them. Grilli, Uehara, and Papelbon are all closers controlled beyond 2015. Lowe is a pending free agent, but he's also making the league minimum. Benoit is not perfect, but his team also has the most incentive to try to move him *right now* (and not wait until July 31st either). There's actually plenty of room in our pen to take a cash flyer on Benoit and still try to swing a favorable deal for one of these other guys. I just don't want to do nothing until July 31st and potentially get zero external upgrades, or overpay for one of those upgrades on July 31st, which is a very real risk for your proposed method.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Both were late college draftees (39th and 46th rounds). To be fair, I think Slama got hurt before he got a chance elsewhere. Otherwise perhaps he could have been a functional MLB reliever for a little while. Slama got more K's but always had worse control. What's most notable about Achter the past couple seasons is his very low hit rate. He's another guy I would have liked to see more in 2014 and/or early 2015 -- if he's more suspect than prospect, and we have no plans to use him, it's costing us to keep him on the 40-man roster this whole time.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    26 is quite old for any player to *debut*. Some players don't become good MLB players until age 26 or later, but very rarely do good MLB players debut at age 26. In Guerra's case, his MLB debut came almost 10 years to the day after his original signing, and he only had one serious injury (his 8th full pro season). That goes well beyond patience. Not hindsight at all -- that was my position at the time. The Twins were a contender, Santana was an ace that we could have used (especially after trading Garza), and draft pick compensation rules were good for us at the time. There was really no reason to trade him at that moment unless we were overwhelmed with an offer. And a still-unpolished Gomez plus a lotto ticket plus a couple fungible AAA starters was definitely not overwhelming. (Sickels prospect grades at the time put that package roughly equivalent to Gomez plus Tyler Robertson, Anthony Swarzak, and Jeff Manship.) Gomez's outcome alone probably makes it not-disastrous, but it was mainly a panic move, because we were going to lose Santana and we didn't have an opening day CF to replace Hunter. I doubt TR would have made it -- if it wasn't Smith's doing, he was letting the inmates run the asylum a little too much.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Ted F'in Williams?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Benoit has out-performed his FIP significantly for three years running now. Maybe he's just one of those guys?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    In that sense, it could be a blessing in disguise for KC, assuming he comes back quickly and effectively enough not to derail their 2015 season, they could suffer without him just enough to possibly retain him for 2016 without any greater commitment. Of course, if he comes back quickly and effectively enough to not derail the 2015 Royals season, the injury may not hurt his free agent market at all this offseason either...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, although it could be a year and a half of Benoit (team option for 2016). Three and a half years of a decent utility infielder still probably trumps that, unless perhaps Benoit was still lights-out.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. But we need Arcia, Vargas, Kepler, or Pinto to actually claim that DH spot, AND the other OF occupants (Rosario and Hicks) to hold on to theirs. Neither of those conditions seems particularly close at the moment.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    It hasn't just taken Guerra over 7 years since the trade to establish himself -- it's taken him over 7 years to simply APPEAR in MLB. Or even deserve to, really. That doesn't help even the most patient organization (and indeed, Guerra re-signed here a minor league free agent at least once, I think). Even Gomez's 4 years to productivity wasn't really a good deal for the Twins, who were present and future contenders at the time of the Santana deal. They weren't in full rebuild mode. Johan's side of the deal wasn't that bad. He gave the Mets 3 pretty darn good seasons, plus about half of a decent 4th season before he was done for good. 15.2 WAR. Not great bang for their buck, but far from a disaster. Especially since the only guy they probably miss is Gomez, who took awhile to become an impact player anyway. And of course, we could have used Santana's 7 WAR in 2008, and then collected two extra picks for the Mike Trout draft of 2009... even if we didn't get Trout, keeping Santana was probably the better play unless we got overwhelmed by an offer (and the Mets offer wasn't overwhelming).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    He's got a player option for next year, and has talked previously about possibly exercising it in the face of all financial reason because he likes KC. He could decline the option and accept a qualifying offer for a few extra million too.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Feels like you're trying to have it both ways -- if he starts the year off good, and he struggles later, it's because he wore down in-season. But if he starts the year off bad... was he still worn down from last year? If the offseason didn't rest him adequately, not sure there's much we can do. Maybe he's just a bad player with a variable range of performance? I think he should get some rest simply because his performance suggests backup, rather than a guy you want to guarantee next year's starting job in July again...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I feel like if Fryer was that good defensively, he would have been claimed on waivers and someone would have given him a 40-man roster spot this past winter to be their backup catcher. Even Butera has gotten that kind of love around the league.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually McCann was the previous offseason -- Russell Martin was the premier catching FA this past winter, signing for a similar amount with Toronto. Given the state of our catching, it would have been hard to argue if the Twins decided to use the money budgeted for Suzuki and Ervin Santana to make a run at Martin instead (or even McCann as Mauer had just quit catching), or taken a gamble on Miguel Montero. The FA outlook at the position is fairly bleak the next couple years, so now we're probably left scrambling around with Suzuki types anyway, or trying to engineer a potentially more costly trade of talent.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That link doesn't address Benoit at all. I expect it just means they don't want a bunch of low-level lotto tickets for Upton, Kennedy, Kimbrel, etc. Not really an unusual stance to take. A low-level lotto ticket might still be perfectly acceptable for a middle reliever, though.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    He still could accept a AAA assignment by Texas, so he's not a free agent quite yet.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. AJ, Soto, Hundley, etc. -- and even Suzuki himself the winter before (actual multiple seasons before, if we consider his low-cost trades). I guess if they wanted to lock up Suzuki just to have something, but still look at the market for upgrades, that would be okay, but I am pretty confident they didn't do that. At least not last offseason, and that decision is hurting them now. In July 2014, Suzuki was guaranteed to be Plan A for 2015, without any real Plan B given the obvious mistrust and issues around Pinto.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above -- the issue wasn't really "buying high" but settling for a low-upside guy they may very well have to bench/eat soon rather than explore the market. I guarantee you that TR wasn't working the phones looking at other catchers last winter, when he probably should have been, arguably more than trying to ink Ervin Santana.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins also effectively punted on looking for an upgrade for an offseason / 12 calendar months. When they had no prospects to develop in MLB (they clearly didn't trust Pinto, and there was no one else even remotely ready), and they didn't even try to find something else in free agency. I think exploring the market for a better or longer-term solution would have been well worth potentially having to overpay Suzuki in the offseason.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    And as always, Cuddyer is willing to shift to first base to help!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you have a source on that? I haven't seen that reported anywhere, at least not in regards to Benoit -- they probably can't be too choosey about their return for him. For better players, like Kimbrel etc., they probably want good young MLB players or near MLB good prospects, sure. But the market for Benoit would probably dictate taking a younger lower-level prospect as the best return value -- it doesn't make much sense for them to insist on a bench or AAA guy.
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