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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The Giants have been really good at this. Outside of Wheeler for Beltran, it hasn't really cost them in terms of prospects (and Beltran performed very well for the Giants).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Gausman has 5.5 years of control left. Even Miller has 4.5. Neither will be paid more than the minimum salary until at least 2016-2017. Their teams have no incentive to move them now unless they get a very high return. And if that's the case, I'd argue Tulo fits this mold too. For all his imperfections, at least he has a demonstrated record of MLB excellence. You'd really have to trust the Twins scouts if we gave up a lot for Gausman or Miller.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I admit, Hunter and Pelfrey both pleasantly surprised me in the season's early goings, but now here we are in July, and both seem to have a veteran stranglehold on playing time to the possible detriment of our season and/or future...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    And as bad as it was to trade Donaldson, I don't think this trade is what sunk them (so far) in 2015. Lawrie is a league average bat playing everyday at 3B. Graveman, as suspect as he is, has been an effective member of the rotation. They have the 5th best pythag record in the league, but the 12th best actual record. BaseRuns tells a similar story. Looking up and down their roster, it's far from perfect, but they should be in the thick of things. That's got nothing to do with Donaldson's wins above Lawrie, really. Their bullpen seems to be a big culprit, and that's an area where Beane didn't do much messing (he let Gregorson walk, and added Clippard). They might still wind up at .500 for the season, which probably wasn't far off from the expectations of Beane and most observers, but it will have been a weird and roundabout way of getting there.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Putting aside defense, since they are both well-regarded and we know Oakland has much different methods of defensive evaluation than are available to us: ZiPS had them projected about 1.5 wins apart with the bat for 2015. That's projecting a slight improvement for Lawrie over 2012-2014, and a pessimistic outlook for Donaldson (worse than 2014, which in turn was notably worse than his 2013). And they are on pace to be 3 wins apart with the bat in 2015, a 1.5 win difference over ZiPS. It's highly unlikely that this was not in Beane's expected range of outcomes for these players.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Not my intent at all. Just saying this specific allegation against Beane -- that he somehow thought Lawrie wasn't a big downgrade from Donaldson -- sounds more like it would apply to an inexperienced GM, or one who is largely just executing the recommendations of others. (Or even a GM who trades much more selectively.) Smith had a number of moves to replace players that were real reaches. There's basically no evidence to suggest that Beane thought that here. He was just adhering to his well-established pattern of trading, early, everybody he can get a multi-piece return for, while trying to project in the hunt. The mistake in this case seems to be that, while Beane was able to effectively deal decent players like Swisher, Gio Gonzalez, Cahill, etc., it's VERY hard to get good value in return for trading a superstar, particularly one with 4 years of cheap control left. Guys like Trout and Harper, it's basically impossible to construct a trade for them. Donaldson is not quite in that class, but he's closer to that than to Nick Swisher circa 2008. Beane probably would have been better off breaking his aggressive early trade pattern for Donaldson.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    BA's midseason top 50 came out recently, and Berrios is the only Twin at #19. (Note that this doesn't include June draftees or July 2nd signings yet.) The Red Sox have 5 in this top 50 (2 ahead of Berrios) Braves have 2 Rangers have 3 (1 ahead of Berrios) Mets have 2 (1 ahead of Berrios) Nationals have 3 (2 ahead of Berrios) Pirates have 2 (1 ahead of Berrios) Rockies have 2 And that still leaves out the Dodgers with 4 (including 2 of the top 4!) and the Phillies and Yankees (each with 2 ahead of Berrios).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    You could say he reached a PLATE more than any base too...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, at least Boyer didn't allow the first batter he faced to reach last night! (Sac fly) Second batter didn't reach base either, in a manner of speaking...
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    In regards to Hardy -- maybe Escobar isn't as fast as they'd like their middle infielders to be?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    And, if you are winning the division, you're probably going to say "we're already good enough" and stand pat...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    If Tulo was 33 and/or struggling, I might be with you here. Fortunately Tulo is only 30, and he's still raking. Now, I would be very open to a scout or a detailed analysis that showed Tulo specifically was likely to fall off quickly within the next 3-4 years, but I don't think you can let generalized arguments derail such acquisitions, or you'd never sign a major free agent, never trade for a veteran, etc.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Summary: Beane might be a bad GM who is hurting is team (especially in the last year), but he's not naive about the risks he is taking. Bill Smith sometimes struck me as a naive GM.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Previously the direct replacement for their traded player was usually in the system already, and that wasn't the case here so they got one in return. Still doesn't mean that they didn't understand the drop-off in talent between the two players. Unless you think Beane thought he was fleecing his trade partner, which is not supported by his volume of trades. And of course it can still be a bad trade, even a very bad trade. But I suspect Beane was well aware of that possibility. His volume of trading doesn't suggest he thinks he is "fleecing" anyone, nor is he really afraid to "lose" a trade in this manner.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The A's have never been in a big "win now" mode, at least not in the offseason. (July 2014 they probably were, with the best record in the league.) They were still projected as an above-.500 team with Lawrie, which I think is the extent of their recent "win now" planning. (More accurately "not lose now" which they are failing on this year anyway!)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Big picture: the Rockies have a pretty tremendous talent asset in Tulo, and they are probably insisting on some combination of demonstrated MLB talent (Gibson) and elite potential talent (Sano, maybe Berrios) to force a move right now. I get the argument that that's too much for the Twins to give up, but I think giving up only half of that (demonstrated talent in Gibson) + other non-elite stuff is absolutely in the Twins favor, and would absolutely be rejected by the Rockies. There's just no reason they'd have to do that deal today -- they could probably get a similar haul this winter, or anytime over the next couple seasons if they so desire. Probably more if Tulo stays on the field awhile, or has a performance spike like 2014 again.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure he has value, but he alone isn't going to sink or swim a Tulowitzki trade. Just like Gibson is a good pitcher, but isn't alone going to sink or swim out postseason chances.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think what gives it that impression is that Donaldson was the best Oakland player of the past 10 years. You're certainly right that the A's may have been better off keeping him, but it's not really that baffling that they stuck to their plan. It was a little surprising when he traded Russell last July, but again, Russell was probably their best prospect of the past 10 years. Beane is nothing if not aggressive and it's not that surprising he made an aggressive midseason trade when his team was doing very well. And the fact that Beane makes so many trades is pretty strong evidence that he does NOT think he is fleecing anybody (which is your assumption, if you claim he thought Lawrie would not be a big downgrade from Donaldson, plus he got a rising top 100 prospect and two interesting MLB ready pitchers as well). They are indeed "trades for the sake of making trades" -- he likes the options he has by being aggressive, I guess.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Evidence...?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    1-2 this year (5-7 since the start of 2011): http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=MIN&year=2015#ump_extra::none
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    You think they'd turn down Gibson, but take Gibson + Kepler? Again, I like Kepler, but it seems you're making these guys out to be WAY more of difference-makers than they actually are (Gibson alone in our playoff rotation, and Kepler alone in any trade proposal).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Lester got $155 million, Scherzer $190 million. Do you really see the Twins bidding at that level for Price, Cueto, Zimmermann, or Greinke? By all means, if they've targeted one of those guys and are prepared to bid that much, that's cool too. But somehow I doubt it (almost as much as I doubt they'd actually swing a trade for Tulo ).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't mean straight-up, sorry if that wasn't clear. But unless Sano, Berrios, or Buxton is part of that extra "stuff", I still think the end result is the same.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think "vastly" is the problematic word here. In baseball, "vastly superior" is the difference between Kershaw and Correia for one game. The difference between Gibson and May/Pelfrey/Milone for 25% of a playoff rotation cannot be described as "vast."
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It doesn't appear anywhere except Twins Daily. Jeremy, could doubts about your source be holding this back from, say, MLBTR? Looking back at Jeremy's article, the Rockies' "top target" is Gibson and "they've also asked for" Sano. I interpret that as meaning they would want both for Tulo. That's a high price, but it's mostly on the Sano side, as he still has superstar upside (and still potentially at 3B). I think it was mentioned upthread, but if the Twins offered Gibson + stuff for Tulo, with no Sano/Berrios/Buxton, it might be difficult for the Colorado GM to keep his composure long enough to politely end the conversation and hang up the phone. The idea that the TWINS would be the ones to walk away from such a deal is crazy. EDITED: to add "+ stuff"
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