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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I certainly would have tried those guys out by now. But now that we're waited until July, we've reduced our margin for error. Benoit may not be available after July 31st. If it's just cash and a fungible prospect/player, I'd do it.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Benoit's no sure thing at this age, but he at least has the potential to get back to 10 K/9. Do you have a better suggestion, that could be acquired without sacrificing much talent in return?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Benoit's K rate is down this year, and his BB rate is up -- worst marks in both categories since his 2009 surgery. And he's about to turn 38 years old, so it may not be just random fluctuation. Still looks like an upgrade for us, and a better one than LaTroy Hawkins, and could be very get-able with that salary.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    As soon as Buxton and Kepler are ready to produce in the MLB outfield, that will go a long way toward eliminating uncertainty in the OF which was the condition I put forth for the Plouffe to SS idea. Of course, that day probably won't be in 2015, and if/when it comes, Hunter may be gone and Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, etc. may still not be solidified yet either. I'm no fan of infielders starting in the outfield, I agree with you there. Ultimately, though, Plouffe to SS is just one of several options that make more sense than settling for a .520 OPS inconsistent glove at the spot. And with the current roster (uncertainty in the OF and also DH without Sano), the other options probably make more sense to try first.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, Cust drew a ton of walks. "3 true outcomes". Walker's problem is that he is trending up in the worst of those outcomes (K's), and he's been very low in another (BB's). Moya is actually a great comp. Generally considered a fringe prospect himself, he's a lefty batter (platoon future?), a year ahead of Walker at the same age (Moya dominated AA last year), and his AA K rate was still significantly lower than Walker's current rate. Probably would get more attention in the a different system, although that attention might be brief if his AA success doesn't translate to higher levels (as Moya's hasn't yet).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Guerra was pretty good in AAA this year too, although he's been in AAA a few years already (although he only had 70 career appearances at AAA entering the season). 25 games, 37 IP, 1.23 ERA, 5.2 H/9, 0.2 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a pretty low standard. Gomez took off, but only after 4+ years of MLB service. Guerra just now debuted, as a reliever, more than 7 years after the trade. The guy who tossed one of the flukiest perfecto's ever, on his second organization after the Twins, washed out of MLB the following season. It certainly looks better than it did in the spring of 2011 (primarily due to Gomez), I will grant you that.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    There is some precedent for this. Suzuki was Oakland's regular catcher until late June 2012 (133 GS season pace) and was terrible. After a month-plus in backup duty, he was traded to Washington in early August and hit well down the stretch as their primary starter. He wasn't pushed as hard in Washington in 2013 (117 GS season pace in early July) but faded again. A month and a half on the bench, and he hit well albeit in a very tiny sample as Oakland's backup in September. 2015 is a little trickier. He really hasn't been good from day 1 this year. His ISO is lower than ever before. I guess it's worth a shot, but we really should be looking to put him in a permanent backup role to a better catcher somehow. Wish we had been trying to do that the past calendar year...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Good theory, but Pelf's value is pretty limited right now -- he's basically an extra reinforcement SP, if you don't already have one like Milone stashed at AAA or May in the bullpen. He should fetch you *something*, but he's probably not going to contribute much to a deal for immediate help of your choosing. And any team trading good value for Plouffe right now has an immediate need at a specific position. What is the likelihood that among that subset of teams, there is also a further subset of teams with a good young catcher to spare? We've discussed the Giants but their infield at the moment is pretty solid, we've discussed the Mets but their starting catcher is actually injured right now, and they may not think they need a 3B for multiple seasons with Wright still under contract. They could just as easily give up a low-level prospect to rent Aramis Ramirez for the rest of 2015. Not sure if any other trade partners would meet this narrow criteria either.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Plouffe's OPS+ is 108, which is definitely appreciated at 3B, but I don't know if it's really worth the hassle of a move back to SS when there is a real SS with a 87 OPS+ on the roster (Escobar, who also had a 101 OPS+ last season). Especially not while there is still uncertainty in the OF (i.e. even if Arcia is ready to rake soon, he might be better off starting in place of Rosario, etc.). If somehow the OF, DH, and 1B are all completely set without considering Sano or Plouffe, I guess I could see giving Plouffe some action at SS just to broaden our options. But we're quite a long ways away from that point!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    This is the really puzzling part. He was demoted, called back up in a slight emergency for a different role, he posted the exact same ~.520 OPS he had before, and now... he's somehow back as the starting SS. It's like everybody had their memories erased, Men In Black style.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    BA released their mid season top 50, which has graduated a ton of players already and does not yet include new draftees or international signings, and Gordon didn't make the list: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-prospects2015/ Was preseason #61, so he might still be iin that spot although that would be a relative drop with all the graduates. Berries was the only Twin in this top 50.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Wrong trade. Donaldson fetched his replacement at 3B in Lawrie, plus prospects. Still probably not a good trade, but also not one the Twins could replicate for a catcher. Off the top of my head, Oakland does not have a history of trading for B prospects without MLB experience as the centerpiece of a trade.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps, although he had barely played there, wasn't from there, and didn't have a wife or children at the time. They do seem to get buy-in from their players though (Longoria, Archer, and Moore all signed similar deals). I do wonder if the calculation is a little different from international players. Settling in one part of the USA probably looks much different to Sano and his friends and family.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    So, who would Hawkins replace?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, drop the opening day starter notes -- I still don't see them displacing Hutchinson or Dickey for Pelfrey. (That was my main point -- their two worst performing starters are also two of the most locked-in.) The Jays adding Pelfrey to their starting staff right now would be the equivalent of the Twins adding Frasor to their bullpen. Even with Pelfrey, they would still probably be looking to add another arm (possibly to replace Pelf). Maybe if it is July 31st or August and nothing else materializes.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I've noticed that too. And Lucroy's DL stint was just for a toe injury -- doesn't seem like it should be a career-changer. Berrios straight up for Lucroy is probably a good deal for the Twins, although I am pretty sure the Brewers would want some additional notable prospects -- trading Lucroy would indicate a blow-up rebuild and they'd want some quantity to go with the quality. And given Lucroy's contract and the FA market for catchers the next few offseasons, they would be in no hurry. But I'm starting to come around to the idea that I couldn't fault it from the Twins side. Just like I probably couldn't have faulted them for spending big on Russell Martin. Their internal catching outlook is bleak, and like I said, the FA market doesn't look promising either. It's going to have to be a trade, and a Lucroy trade now would provide benefits in at least 3 seasons.... very tempting...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty desperate? Buehrle (115 ERA+) Hutchinson (3.71 FIP, opening day starter) Dickey (2014 opening day starter) Norris (102 ERA+, BA's #18 prospect) Sanchez (110 ERA+, BA's #27 prospect, on rehab assignment) Estrada (108 ERA+) Who would Pelfrey replace in that group? No doubt they might like to add a *good* starter, but I doubt Pelfrey would be their target. He's not even appreciably better than Estrada.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure Oakland would not trade a catcher currently sporting a 145 OPS+ and controlled for the next 4.5 seasons without asking for an elite prospect (i.e. Berrios or Sano) in return.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Why does that make sense for the Jays? With Aaron Sanchez on a rehab assignment, they've got 5+ starters who would be ahead of Pelfrey on their depth chart. And I doubt anyone is eager to trade for Pelfrey and immediately stick him in the bullpen.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be real tempted if there were fewer question marks around Lucroy, and a 110 OPS+ would be close enough to his previous level to remove a lot of question marks...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    By "extension" I assume you could extend Lucroy before he reaches free agency. His contract is very team-friendly now, I wouldn't be surprised if was willing to rip it up and extend it a few years like Phil Hughes did.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Fryer was in the Herrmann role (sole backup) for a large portion of last season. He started 19 out of 74 games from his call-up in June 2014 until the time Pinto came back in September, or 26%. Herrmann started 19 out of 84 games this year, or 23%. That's a difference of less than 1 start per month.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Wanted Fryer to get regular time? This is Fryer's 3rd season in the organization, and they've given him 259 and 206 plate appearances in his first two. It took Pinto largely sucking and hurt to get him more than that.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I should have asked you: how does having Fryer rather than an open spot on the roster "make it easier for them to subtract below-replacement guys"? I guess technically they can't subtract a guy from an open spot, but at best, this is a lateral move. At worst, it suggests they *might* value one of these below-replacement guys more than they should. Fryer just got added so he's unlikely to get dropped right away -- now what if Herrmann resumes hitting .300 at AAA and Pinto is still in injury limbo? I could see them holding on to all 3 of them for a little while longer, and having one less spot be flexible. And for what gain, really? Suzuki's not going to suddenly blossom as a hitter catching slightly less than before, and in any case, Fryer isn't going to enable them to rest Suzuki any more than Herrmann. if anything, they probably should have used the 40-man spot to continue auditioning more bullpen help in advance of the trade deadline, to better determine our needs in that area. Adding Fryer does nothing: they still need catching help.
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