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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I got all 4! I guess the key is being a Yankee, or beating the Yankees...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    What would make more sense for Detroit? They've got commitments, some to still very good players (Cabrera, JD Martinez, plus Kinsler and Verlander finished up pretty well last year). They're not doomed to last place or anything. Doesn't really make sense to blow it all up (if that's even possible, given their commitments) or do little or nothing, that's a recipe for stagnation. Given their question marks, a $200 mil blockbuster contract might not make sense for these Tigers, but that's not what they signed here. They signed a very good pitcher to what looks like a perfectly reasonable deal. It may not be enough to put them back on top by itself, but without a doubt it improves the team, nothing wrong with that.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    There wasn't really a drop off in K rate, more like a spike in 2014. Career K/9 of 7.4, 2015 mark of 7.3. From 2011-2013, Zimmermann had a lower K rate each year than he did in 2015, yet managed a 124 ERA+ during that time.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Clones, delivered by drones?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    As of 2 years ago, his KBO salary was about $500k: http://www.mykbo.net/KBO_news/february25thsrandomkbonews-2
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Mentioned in the other thread, but that seems low. I could be wrong, though (and often am!).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems low. Andrew Albers got a "high six figures" guarantee when he went over there. I would imagine Park would have received (or at least be in line to receive) more than that.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like Jed Lowrie might play 2B, but either way, one of Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia is probably on the block.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    One potential 3B off the market, with the Astros trading Jed Lowrie back to the Athletics: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/athletics-jed-lowrie-trade-astros.html Didn't cost much for the A's. Now the Astros just have Valbuena at the hot corner...
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe it's semantics, but reloading to me doesn't imply doing anything half-assed, just doing the best with what you have, in this case, spinning shorter term assets into multiple slightly longer term ones. Like the Gomez/Fiers and Parra deadline deals, or a hypothetical Lucroy for Plouffe/Murphy swap. They've got enough interesting, controlled pieces either in MLB or very close now that I'm not sure "starting from scratch" is a better strategy. Braun, Davis, a couple young starters, some great young relievers, plus Arcia and the 5 kids they already picked up at the deadline this year. Not to mention a few solid shorter term assets still left in Lucroy and Lind. It looks like a tough division right now, but I don't think it's enough that you blow up that team to start from scratch.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the recap Seth! I didn't realize Pinto had passed up minor league free agency before he was added in 2012. I wonder why we wouldn't have added him to the 40-man roster a month earlier? If we thought he was worth protecting from Rule 5 on Nov. 20, he was certainly worth adding to 40-man roster on Oct. 20. Probably a function of our suspect farm systems during that period, rather than astute 40-man moves...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps you are unaware, but Orlando Arcia is the #12 prospect in all of MLB right now according to MLB.com. He's not getting traded. And Walker is obviously less highly regarded, but the Brewers have no particular need for another corner OF on their 40-man roster right now. But take them out and you might be on to something. If the Brewers are thinking reload rather than full rebuild (and they're not in as bad a position as the Phillies, Braves, etc., although their division does them no favors), and they think Murphy can be a solid starting catcher, they'd probably consider Plouffe + Murphy for Lucroy, with maybe a minor or piece or two around the edges. Of course, if they were right about Murphy, I'm not sure that deal is very beneficial to the Twins anymore.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Further analysis: last year, BA published a similar list of 77 minor league guys, and still missed two picks (Odubel Herrera, arguably the best pick last year, and David Rollins). http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/notable-players-available-rule-5-draft/ They did feature 10 "most notable" guys at the top of the list, which included 4 eventual picks.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. Probably comes off a little different when GMs do it, though. The Twins could produce a 73 page binder extolling the virtues of Plouffe, but I don't think it will get a lot of traction at the winter meetings. Indeed, any hype around Plouffe might reveal too much of our intentions to trade him. Boras doesn't have that particular concern when negotiating a FA contract. (An aside, I think Boras publicly hates the qualifying offer system, but he's probably promoted the possible comp pick as a benefit to signing his clients too. )
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Back to the subject at hand, I'd definitely consider Buxton + others not including Berrios and Kepler. Or Berrios + Kepler, as the original suggestion. Both predicated on the Twins being absolutely comfortable with Fernandez's recent medicals, of course. I suspect either proposal wouldn't quite meet the Marlins demands right now. Buxton + Berrios probably would, but that's pretty steep -- and I don't think I could ever be comfortable enough with the medicals to pull that trigger...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd say hurts. But seriously, I think if you tried to move an elite prospect straight up for an established MLBer, you will probably wind up with 1.5 years of Samardzija type offers. That's just a reflection of the risk involved in a single prospect, even an elite one. So teams generally hold on to them instead, or build a package around them for a better return.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    If you think you might DFA them after a brief MLB audition, perhaps they're not worth protecting on the 40-man all winter without the audition anyway.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair enough, I just don't think that selling point would go too far. I doubt teams are unaware of the QO possibilities around any soon-to-be FA, it's just that Plouffe's grasp of a QO-level performance is pretty tenuous at the moment, and two years away is a long time. A relatively minor injury or even a slight performance drop would torpedo that plan for Plouffe. If the Twins tried to tell me a QO and rejection and subsequent draft pick two years from now was particularly likely for Plouffe, I'd probably follow up and ask them why don't they keep Plouffe then? I can evaluate Plouffe's future fine for myself, I don't need a salesman to help me!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    B-Ref since 2012, according to this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, agreed 100%. Guys at that age and level, with that track record, should absolutely be expected to have an MLB audition before they spend a whole winter on the 40-man roster. (Which Thompson himself did in 2014, as well as Oliveros, and Fryer in 2013, etc.) Likewise, a guy like Gilmartin should probably get that audition too before it is determined that we'd be OK losing him in Rule 5. Worst case, you see something in the audition that makes you not want to keep him on the roster all winter, and without Rule 5 restrictions you can probably flip him for another marginal player to fill a AAA depth role if that's all you wanted anyway.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Example? Surely if these "elite of the elite" prospects could normally pull 3 years of an ace, it would have happened a few times, no? "Elite of the elite" prospects are still just that, prospects. They can be trade centerpieces but they aren't getting 3 years of an MLB superstar straight up. Hence why elite prospects aren't traded often -- it's usually better for the team to keep them and see if they fulfill their own superstar potential, because superstar potential is worth notably less on the open market than an actual superstar.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Just out of curiosity, who would fit your definition of "a shutdown reliever with 2-3 seasons of control"? Doesn't have to be one available in trade for Plouffe, just wondering what that standard is.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    WAR incorporates reliever leverage, both at Fangraphs and B-Ref.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    And Addison Russell got 1.5 years of Samardzija. If top prospects could easily return 3 years of a legit ace straight-up, you'd see one or more dealt every year, the success rate even among top prospects isn't that high to make that a losing strategy.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    And you are overrating the "damage" to Fernandez, especially since he came back like gangbusters from TJ surgery. Again, Buxton is a fine centerpiece to a deal, but at no point in his pro career to date would he have brought back a healthy MLB ace straight-up. Otherwise you'd see a lot more top prospects dealt in this fashion.
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