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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    So what does the community think of these FA options, on these MLBTR predicted contracts? (Lowe's contract I actually just inferred from his MLBTR rank.) O'Day 3/22.5 Soria 3/18 Clippard 3/18 Bastardo 3/15 Madson 3/15 Kelley 2/12 Sipp 3/12 Lowe 2/10 Personally, I like Sipp and Lowe, although almost any of these would be justifiable and easily affordable offers in my book. Given the rumored demands around O'Day and Soria right now, and the resulting delay as they wait out the market, I'd probably also offer Madson too, and possible Kelley and Bastardo, in an effort to get someone locked in quickly.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    No problem. I am not arguing your personal theory, but your article asks multiple questions and the framing of those questions matters. From reading your article, one might conclude that there are no options between $20+ mil guarantees and one year deals, as you really don't lay any of those out for the community to discuss. Fortunately I am here with an absurd volume of posts on the topic to fill the void though! Thanks for getting the ball rolling, bullpen is obviously a great topic.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    If trading Kepler leaves you too lacking in real outfielders, nothing is stopping you from grabbing Denard Span or someone on a reasonable free agent deal. Fernandez himself is only projected at $2.9 mil arb salary for 2016 so he wouldn't be constraining your finances. I like Berrios and Kepler, but Fernandez + Span are almost certainly better over the next 3 years. And if you don't think the next 3 years is really our "window" then you really don't have a window because no one can really predict a window past 3 years from now.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Fernandez has a much better chance to impact the 2016 than both of them. Probaby 2017 and 2018 too.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    "Barren at the upper levels" for a farm system that just promoted Sano and Buxton, not to mention Rosario, May, etc., with a true ace in Fernandez for the next 3 years, isn't that bad of a position. Particularly since it looks like an opportunity to sell high -- very high -- on Kepler. I know it's a pitcher versus a position player, but I get the feeling that a lot of these arguments against Fernandez would have been trotted out if we were debating Miller and Maybin for Miguel Cabrera circa 2008 too. (Cabrera only had 2 years of control at the time too, and came along with an iffy Dontrelll Willis, partially negating the pitcher vs. position player thing).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Signing a single Thornton or Cotts level reliever largely means will we start the year with our post-August 21st 2015 bullpen. Which means another Perkins injury, OR May needing to go back to the rotation, OR minor league options not stepping forward again leaves us perilously close to another pen disaster and trade deadline desperation. Personally, that's not an acceptable way to address a problem that was plainly evident for a season in which you expect to contend. Certainly it's not worth resisting even a modest $12 or $15 million commitment to a FA reliever. Those options need to be discussed, and thoroughly.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    If you look at my posts above (last year's FA setup contracts, and this year's predictions), Jepsen almost certainly wouldn't get more than 3/15 on the open market. If they decide to re-sign him next year, that's fine, but you're not going to get a meaningful discount on that already modest contract by extending him a year in advance. Guys who were quality relievers last year generally don't settle for one-year contracts, so the Twins have a unique opportunity to view Jepsen's final year of control as that special case, while still adding another quality FA arm this winter. Giving them the flexibility of another year to evaluate Jepsen and our internal options (and Perkins, given his recent ups and downs).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I didn't know the Handbook predictions. They seem high, given past history -- 4 setup guys in one offseason getting $20+ mil, when arguably 0-2 setup guys have reached that total in the history of free agency? (I know Linebrink got $19 mil in a terrible deal by the White Sox, can't think of any others that pre-date the MLBTR FA Tracker starting in 2010.) Also there are at least 4 more guys who will likely get multi-year deals this winter for less than that, so $20+ mil is hardly a requirement for the Twins to venture down that road even if those 4 command those prices. Not trying to be picky (although I know that I am ), I just think there are very interesting names in the multi-year FA reliever market that I'd like to see discussed and debated, and over-estimating their cost tends to preclude that discussion. The only one you mention in the article is O'Day, for example, when I think the entire group of eight I listed above is worthy of discussion. EDIT: I do see you also mention Mark Lowe, albeit very briefly and presumably on the assumption he'd sign a one-year deal.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Here was the multi-year FA setup market last winter: Gregerson 3/18.5 Uehara 2/18 (was actually a closer) Duke 3/15 Romo 2/15 (had lost his closer's job in SF) K-Rod 2/13 (closer but had spent a few years in setup roles) Neshek 2/12.5 Hochevar 2/10 Grilli 2/8 So MLBTR's predictions for this year seem in line with past results.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Option #1 as you described it in your article ("someone who will cost three years and $20+ million") is right now basically limited to O'Day. He really shouldn't get an option all his own! I'd suggest changing the article wording, dropping your threshold to $15 mil if this is how you really feel (and perhaps changing the word "will" to "could" as several notable FA relievers are currently predicted to land closer to $12 mil). Otherwise it seems like you are presenting readers with a false choice. Madson wouldn't be my choice #1 either, just thought MLBTR's prediction for him was notable. See my post above for a larger list of options.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    In case you can't tell from my above posts, to answer the question in the article title, I would recommend a FA signing. Here is what MLBTR predicts for setup men among their top 50 FA: O'Day 3/22.5 Soria 3/18 Clippard 3/18 Bastardo 3/15 Madson 3/15 Kelley 2/12 Sipp 3/12 And Mark Lowe makes their "honorable mention" list without a predicted contract, presumably around Kelley/Sipp level. I would take almost any of those guys on those deals (although I'm not crazy about Clippard or Soria).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Another overlooked factor is that Jepsen is a free agent after the 2016 season. A free agent signing this winter would simply overlap Jepsen for a year while our internal options are still trying to reach MLB. If one emerges to claim a spot by the end of the year, they could slot into Jepsen's spot for 2017.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It is disingenuous to suggest those are their only two options on the free agent market. Non-closers have never before gotten a $20 million guarantee in free agency (searching back to the 2010-2011 offseason using MLBTR's FA Tracker), with the possible two exceptions of League and Broxton who got $22.5 and $21 million respectively a few years ago, although both had recent closer experience and were deployed (albeit briefly) as closers by their signing clubs, and maybe Miller last winter although he was crazy dominant and signed to replace Robertson as the Yankees closer. $20+ million is nowhere near the standard for multi-year FA set up men. MLBTR predicts only O'Day will get that much in this year's market. Plenty of guys like Mark Lowe and Shawn Kelley, to name a few, will almost certainly fall well short of that mark. MLBTR actually predicts Ryan Madson to land with the Twins for 3/15. That was the argument last year too, and arguably none of the big upside options are any closer to being viable MLB relievers a year later. "The volatility of relievers is such that anything more than a one-year contract is quite risky" has yet to be borne out by any data. When the market is primarily based on deals around 3/15, it's almost impossible for them to be "quite risky."
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Viola was very good for a couple years, but even he didn't have the upside that Fernandez has shown thus far. And frankly the Mets didn't lose that much, a solid closer and a few decent seasons from Tapani, primarily.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If Fernandez is that good, he's probably providing some pretty compelling benefits over his 3 years here. And you could always trade him again if you aren't competing in year 3 for whatever reason. Heck, if he establishes good health here for a year or two you might be able to better that return in trade.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Problem is, those future years are much more uncertain, even in your conservative 5% plan. Three years from now, your chances might have dropped by more than 3% just due to things beyond your control. This is not an argument for going crazy all-in at any particular point, just pointing out that the confidence level of immediate plans is a lot higher than long-range plans.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the "Berrios can provide more WAR in 6 years than Fernandez in 3" argument doesn't make much sense. Teams don't compete with the goal of "most WAR over a 6 year period" and even if they did, it's not like Fernandez has to be replaced with a zero WAR player for the other 3 years.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like the DL could be the new Rule 5 strategy, especially with TJ surgery pitchers like Melotakis -- spend half the year on DL (easy for for surgery recovery), then active for 2 months and you can effectively shut him down with expanded rosters for September and he's met the 90 days active requirement. If he's not physically ready by July, or you don't think you can spare the 25-man spot at that moment, you can leave him on the DL longer and make up for it with a little extra time on the 25-man to begin the following season.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That Cub Reporter site seems to have everything, I don't usually look too far beyond that.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Right. But they also probably aren't trying to trade for an ace or potential ace, which was the premise of this thread. IF they were trying to trade for such a pitcher, they might be better off forking over a $100+ mil contract instead given the names out there.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Big decline? By ERA+, Zimmermann was basically the same last year as he was in 2013 when he won 19 games and was an all-star. By K/9, he was even better. I probably shouldn't have grouped him in with Cueto, and shifted my preferred range to $100-$125 mil. Zimmermann at $100 million would be an absolute steal.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    No, I'm not trying to say that. Sorry for the confusion! Just pointing out how far Miller has been from being an ace. I'd take Miller over Gibson, even with higher salaries and one less year of control, but that's not the question for us or the Braves.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Given that Miller's ace potential is still just that -- potential -- and he'd cost ~$25 mil in salary of the next 3 years anyway, plus surrendering talent in trade, I think I'd rather just look at free agents if the goal is to acquire an ace this winter. I've heard speculation that Cueto or Zimmermann might have to settle for $125-150 mil with Price and Greinke leading the pack. EDIT: $100-125 mil would be my preferred range, although if we were prioritizing an "ace" acquisition, pushing up to $150 mil for the right guy should be in consideration.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Every Marlin is on the block, always. Fernandez has been pretty amazing. Unfortunately, he's already up to 3 years service time, so he'd only offer 3 more years of team control. He did come back from TJ fantastically, before missing time at the end of the year (reportedly just a bicep strain, and no shoulder damage). At least his injuries have held his price down, projected to make only $2.2 mil in arbitration this winter by MLBTR. If his arm could currently pass a thorough physical, I'd still probably be willing to lead a package with Berrios. I like Berrios and look forward to watching him, but Fernandez is just on another level talent-wise.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    He was saying "no way" to drafting that specific player (Balbino Fuenmayor, who I think deserves consideration based on his name alone ).
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