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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Price also gets an opt out after 3 years.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Fien has trade value, just like Burton had trade value, and Duensing, and Cotts, and Swarzak... If Fien had any meaningful trade value, he would be a better pitcher on the level of Jepsen and we wouldn't even be having this debate.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That is a little harsh. Park didn't get to negotiate the system that gave a single MLB team so much leverage in these negotiations. I don't care about his Korean team getting a cut, etc., but this old style posting system is definitely not fair to the players.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Given the difference in defensive position and age with Jung Ho Kang, and Kang's limited MLB resume thus far, it's hardly clear yet if teams were scared off by Park's potentially high price tag, or if that was more of a media mismeasurement.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be. It does seem like we were more aggressive than other teams with our posting fee bid on Park, which is smart IF you actually want the player under this posting system. Of course, it the player ultimately isn't worth wanting, it's not really an inefficiency that other teams bid less...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not quite sure if that is true. Ryan Doumit averaged .261 and 16 HR in his two seasons here and wasn't particularly worth the $3.5 mil a year we guaranteed him. The only real value to this deal will be if he notably exceeds those numbers, and he obviously has a shot right now. Will be interesting to watch.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    "Far less accomplished"? These things from Nishioka's Wikipedia page sound like accomplishments (although I am admittedly unsure of "2010 NPB 27 Slug prize record"): 2× Japan Series champion (2005, 2010)5× NPB All-Star (2005–2008, 2010)3× NPB Best Nine Award (2005, 2007, 2010)3× NPB Golden Glove Award (2005, 2007, 2010)2× NPB stolen base leader (2005–2006)2010 NPB batting champion2010 NPB safe hit champion2010 NPB 27 Slug prize recordHe was also a 26 year old shortstop at the time. Compared to 29 year old 1B Park's Wikipedia accomplishments: 2× KBO MVP (2012–2013)3× KBO Golden Glove Award (2012–2014)4× KBO Home Run title (2012–2015)4× KBO RBI title (2012–2015)2× KBO Slugging Percentage title (2012–2013)2014 KBO All-Star Game MVP They are very different accomplishments, for sure, but they don't seem that different in quantity or quality (especially if you grade NBP as a better league).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Remember, he was locked into negotiating with only the Twins. Very hard to get a player-friendly deal under those circumstances. I expect if Korean players will be coming over here regularly, we will soon see reforms of their posting system, much like we have seen with Japan.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I did not know he was born in Rapid City (although it sounds like grew up elsewhere, similar to Jason Kubel). What a great place for a pitcher to be from, though -- Rapid City.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I doubt players are really eager to take lower salaries in exchange for lower pressure. There's a reason that the Japanese posting system was reformed, and I expect some of those reforms will be extended to Korea now too.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I too am relieved it came in fairly low. I was excited to see him either way, but $40+ mil total was looking like a very suspect gamble. (As it is, it's still a suspect gamble to invest $25 mil in another 1B/DH type and move Sano to the outfield in the process, when it doesn't look like we're willing to spend even half that mount on addressing the bullpen this winter.) But like I said, I like to see new and exciting players, and we got one, so that will be fun.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, you qualify May with "probably", Perkins deserves a qualifier too with the way he's finished the past two seasons, and Jepsen himself is only controlled one more year. Yet you want to gamble on all 3 of those guys being in the pen and healthy and effective, AND Fien being healthy and effective in front of them? How does spending ~$15 mil in the FA market on another Jepsen type reliever "not make any sense" for a team in this situation? I know this has come up on other threads, but I still don't get it at all. It seems like Twins fans have become a little too conditioned to seek a bargain if we're not willing to commit ~$5 mil annually for 3 years to help upgrade a dangerously weak bullpen.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Sipp and Bastardo were predicted by MLBTR to receive 3/12 and 3/15, respectively. Why not grab one of them if there's not a whole lot you can bank on from that side? More expensive than Cotts but not "overly" so, and "in the volatile world of relievers", their downside probably isn't that much different than Cotts' age 36 projection, with significantly higher upside. If you think O'Rourke or Rogers is going to claim the job soon, fine, but that's the argument we heard about retaining Duensing too -- he was just a placeholder for better things. Problem is, his replacements hardly got a chance in 2015 (Rogers, Dean, Darnell got no chance, and O'Rourke never really got a MLB chance as a LOOGY weapon). If you're not going to aggressively promote and audition internal options, I can't get behind the placeholder strategy anymore. One way or another, it's time to get good relievers already.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Cotts signed for 1 year, $3 mil last winter. MLBTR previously said "presumably, he would require a similar commitment to re-sign for 2016." The TD handbook pegged Thornton at $4 mil. But again, it's not about the money, it's more about locking in mediocrity in the pen. We don't need a Duensing replacement, having a bunch of pitchers of Duensing quality, or Fien quality, is what got us into this mess in the first place. We need better pitchers than that, guys who have a real shot at stepping up when needed (Jepsen) as some guys tend to falter or get hurt (Perkins), some guys get pulled away to other assignments (May), and prospects rarely arrive exactly as hoped (see Twins bullpen prospects in 2015).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Same guy who offered to buy out the stadium on LGBT night, in response to complaints from season ticket holders: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/01/sean-doolittle-lgbt-pride-night_n_6986660.html
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Fien locked into a roster spot makes it very difficult to add another "7th or 8th inning guy" this winter, so you'd almost certainly see him in those situations again, potentially quite early in 2016, just as he has been used in the past. If you really think he should be exclusively a low-leverage, "6th inning" guy, there's really no sense locking him into a roster spot. We've seen in the past few years how locking those guys in takes away a lot of flexibility. I'd rather pay more to sign someone with the potential to be better (another Jepsen type), and if they are all healthy and performing well, not having enough high-leverage innings for them all is a good problem to have. And/or use the low-leverage spots to audition higher upside call-ups or waiver claims for potentially higher upside duty later -- we now have ~10 guys who are on the 40-man roster but potentially ticketed for AAA and need evaluation opportunities.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. If he gets $2.2 mil, he's pretty much locked into a roster spot as long as he doesn't implode like Stauffer. If we're going to lock veterans into bullpen spots, let's at least have them be Jepsen-level pitchers from now on, okay? If Plans A, B, and C don't work out for some reason and you are really desperate by August, you can almost certainly get another Fien (or another Cotts, or another Duensing) for nothing.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Re-signing Cotts would basically be a full endorsement of our post-August 20th 2015 bullpen. Which was still a pretty mediocre bullpen (and whose bad luck in Perkins was probably counterbalanced by good luck with Jepsen). Plan A to open 2016 should be better than that, no?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    In the comments, this is what MLBTR's Tim Dierkes said about Revere's inclusion on the list: Interestingly, that's the same percentage odds Seth gave for a Tommy Milone non-tender (10%). It ain't happening.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    In what world is Fien a trade candidate? Certainly not this offseason, probably not even in 2016 barring an unexpected level of performance. Relievers of his quality occasionally get moved, but for little or no return; they are not trade assets. Also, the Twins minor leaguers (the ones who did not already appear in the 2015 pen) won't be ready to start the 2016 season -- none even appeared in AAA in 2015, much less dominated AA. The goal shouldn't be temporary "protection" against that likelihood, the goal should be fielding an improved bullpen from day 1 so we're not desperately relying on those minor leaguers figuring it all out by mid-summer, or on the whims of the deadline trade market. Then, if one or more of those minor league arms really does figure it out, they could patch unexpected holes, or elevate our pen from good to great, or free up resources to trade. But you have to aim high now to achieve those goals, you can't go into 2016 with the same failed bullpen approach of the last few seasons.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, not offering Fien would signal a change. No more tolerating Duensing etc. every year because they happen to be under team control. Also, while a 1 year, $2.2 mil contract is less risky than a 3 year deal for a FA, I don't know if Fien offers the upside at this point to really make it a "better investment" from a performance/potential standpoint, which should be the goal of these contending Twins rather than simple risk avoidance.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I just noticed that 2013 saw career-high K/9 marks from the following Twins relievers: Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Swarzak, and Thielbar, as well as Burton's Twins high (Burton did have one better mark with the Reds). Among starters, Pelfrey also had his career high K/9 that season. As a team, we ranked last in MLB in reliever K/9 every season from 2011-2015 except 2013 when we "spiked" to 23rd, within 0.4 of the MLB reliever average. In absolute terms, our 2013 team relief mark was our highest since 2006, a full strikeout or greater per 9 better than any other season mark since 2009. Was there something in the water in 2013?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    No interest. So why did we keep Duensing around all these years, with a guaranteed roster spot and multi-million dollar salaries? Path of least resistance, I guess. (And potential trade bait )
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't get why so many posters resist spending up to ~$15 mil on another Jepsen-level bullpen arm in FA, but are eager to endorse dropping $3-4 mil on guys like Cotts and Thornton. We've already witnessed how Jepsen-level guys, while not perfect, can help save a season and command a decent return at the July trade deadline, and how Cotts and Thorton level guys are mostly afterthoughts as August waiver claims. Why lock that into a roster spot with that cash, and with little of the Jepsen-level upside?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    You do recall correctly, batters were 0-for-9 with 1 sac fly off of Cotts in high-leverage situations in his time with the Twins, according to B-Ref: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_team.cgi?full=1&params=lever%7CHigh%20Lvrge%7CMIN%7C2015%7Cpitch%7CAB%7C And good in "medium leverage" too. Of course, those were very small samples, and he was pretty awful in low leverage (1.201 OPS against, even worse than Stauffer), so it's not clear how many of those medium/high leverage PA were of his own making! The Brewers rarely used him in high leverage in 2015, and he was pretty bad in such situations for the 2014 Rangers. And even in his outstanding 2013 for Texas, Cotts was notably better in medium and low leverage PA than high leverage PA. Also, Cotts only had 1 K in those 10 high leverage PA with the Twins, about the same K% and effectiveness as Aaron Thompson in high leverage situations, and I don't believe anyone has suggested bringing back Thompson.
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