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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, a number of observers thought Kohl Stewart was among the "closest to the majors" in the 2013 draft: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/6311-baseball-americas-best-tools-list-for-2013-draft-pitchers-and-hitters/ Probably a function of being one of the top picks, but he certainly wasn't universally viewed as a 4-year project (not many top picks are).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    O'Day was widely noted to be the at the top of the FA reliever crop this winter, and rightfully so. And 4 years was the clincher there, apparently other bids were 3 years. The bigger surprise to me was Madson at 3/22. I suspect most other lesser (but still good) FA relievers will still only get around 3 years, and probably well within a reasonable Twins budget ($15-18 mil). That said, I don't mind Fien at his price, but I would like to see some change in our bullpen approach, and soon.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Young already signed with Boston.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. I do think we have too many relievers on the roster, without enough immediate trusted set up guys at the top, though. I don't mind Fien but I strongly suspect the Twins are viewing him as better and more important than most posters here. I wouldn't be surprised if they rely on Fien near the top of the pen, and fill in with another veteran or two like Cotts, Rodney, Boyer, etc. Which almost guarantees May will be needed again regardless of whether he might be better deployed starting, we may be stuck with a lot of shaky veteran arms we are reluctant to cut, we will have little opportunity to evaluate rookies before the trade deadline, etc. And this isn't just pessimism, this is what happened in 2015. I am looking for a break from the 2015 strategy, and nontendering Fien would have represented that. Although the bigger potential break could be in what FA they might add -- haven't heard them connected to any good ones yet, so we will see..
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually I believe Pryor and Oliveros were removed from the 40-man during spring training, prior to opening day. And our 2015 bullpen approach probably shouldn't be repeated in 2016...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Not necessarily easy to trade, if he is a "meh" performer. See Duensing, Brian. It might be August where someone is desperate for a waiver trade pickup.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I will ask, if you believe Nolasco is tradeable, if you can point to any pitchers traded under similar circumstances (contract, performance, health)? That would be the evidence necessary to support your opinion, no? Note that the subject of this thread (Pelfrey) is not a good comparable, due to better recent health, performance, and a lesser contract. (Not to mention the fact that he's never actually been traded. )
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins have 14 relievers (or potential relievers) on their full 40-man roster right now: Perkins Jepsen Tonkin Fien Pressly Darnell O'Rourke Meyer Graham Rogers Dean Chargois Melotakis You can make a case that at least 6, and as many as 8 or 9, of these guys have little else to prove in AAA (as relievers anyway). Not to mention they have at least 7 starters, so two of these 4 are probably in play for bullpen duty as well: May Milone Nolasco Duffey (As well as Burdi and Reed who will in theory be in consideration, if not in spring training, then early in the season.) I don't mind Fien, but I really don't see how he fits in here without blocking someone, either someone younger who is deserving of an opportunity or better yet a FA signing that would immediately fit in at the top with Perkins and Jepsen. I know we're a ways out of spring training yet, but I don't see trade/waiver candidates here either other than Tonkin and Milone. In a vacuum, committing to Fien isn't bad, but with this roster and bullpen, it looks questionable.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? Here is my post you responded to again: "Low-upside health and performance reclamation projects, 2 seasons removed from any success, don't cost 2/25." What does that have to do with TR signing Nolasco in the first place? He wasn't a reclamation project then. But he most certainly is right now. And the Twins gave contracts of 1/4 and 2/11 to Pelfrey, both notably less than 2/25. (And Pelf was arguably less of a reclamation project than present-day Nolasco both times, coming off of a fairly standard TJ surgery, and then coming off a promising finish to his 2013 season.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say you said those things. Those are my points, in response to your statement, that I believe demonstrate Nolasco is not tradeable right now by any useful definition of the term.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    But why lock in your 5th pen option with a (mostly) guaranteed deal and 40-man roster spot now? Seems like it would be a better choice to lock in another potential top bullpen option (any Jepsen-like FA reliever), and then fill in 5th spot on the depth chart with a minor league invite like Boyer, or the most ready rookie, etc.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Does past evidence suggest this is likely? Unless a veteran totally implodes like Stauffer or Marquis, they don't seem to cut them. Fien does have an option remaining which is unusual but I am not sure they'd be willing to use it.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    This doesn't really describe the Twins at the winter meetings, historically, does it? I've never gotten the impression that we are subject to any greater number or degree of rumors during the winter meetings than at any other time (right now, Cotts, Soria, etc.). In fact, the lack of Twins rumors has seemed tougher for Twins fans (at least this Twins fan ). It would be interesting to go back and look at previous winter meetings and the rumors reporting during that time.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, I did some research and the Twins could DFA Dean or any of the other recent 40-man additions, theoretically. They are called "Draft-Excluded Players" and the only restriction on them right now is that they can't be outrighted (removed from the 40-man but kept in the org) until 20 days before the season (roughly March 15, 2016). They can still be released, traded, or even non-tendered (as was the case with the Orioles and Eddie Gamboa in 2013). http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3517 Of course, in practice it rarely happens, because why would you protect a player from Rule 5, but then be willing to make him a free agent shortly thereafter? But there is no rule preventing the Twins from DFA'ing Dean if they need a spot and rank him below the other 39 guys on the roster.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Where are these rumors? MLBTR has never connected Shields to the Twins, at least not since before the Ervin Santana signing last winter: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/james-shields I think most of those "rumors" are fan creativity.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    It's true that "the right deal hasn't come along", but the right deal is currently one where the Twins don't cover most of the remaining contract. Low-upside health and performance reclamation projects, 2 seasons removed from any success, don't cost 2/25.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That says nothing about how much teams would be willing to pay him right now. Edwin Jackson only had two years left on his deal last winter and an even better "workhorse" record than Nolasco. Do you think Nolasco would get anything close to 2/25 if he was a free agent right now? That's essentially what a team would be doing if they assumed his full contract in trade. With two years of poor health and poor performance, and a low-upside career prior to that, Nolasco wouldn't even sniff Pelfrey's 2/16. At best, he'd be getting Bud Norris's 1 year, $2.5 mil deal.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Same arguments could have (and probably were) made about Duensing in recent seasons. Yet there he was, locked into a roster spot while our bullpen of placeholders helped sink our 2015 season...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    He was? Huh, I could have sworn we had a pretty lousy bullpen the past 5 years, but I guess if we had a good closer and Fien was "fine" in the 8th inning.... And if May is needed to start, and Tonkin, Meyer, Chargois, Burdi, Reed, and others fail to advance, as they did in 2015, what then? I think the Twins should be trying to improve the bullpen today, not putting it off again. I guess I don't care if Fien is part of the back end bullpen mix right now, but we need help at the top. We need to sign or acquire someone better than Fien this winter.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, it is. http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/12/01/wait-what-is-the-non-tender-deadline-again/ Fien is still under team control (less than 6 years service time). He can't elect free agency unless we outright him off the 40-man roster at this point.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, even Pelfrey only got 2/16, coming off 164 IP at 97 ERA+. That doesn't mean Nolasco is tradeable, owed 2/25 coming off 37 IP at 62 ERA+ (and 159 IP of 73 ERA+ the year before). Why would a team assume that risk when guys like Bud Norris are signing for 1 year, $2.5 mil? Happ and Estrada just signed for similar years/AAV as Nolasco is owed, and while neither is a star, both are in a much better position at the moment than Nolasco. Of course, Nolasco could be dealt for a PTBNL if we ate a ton of cash, but that's true of just about any player.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    What's weird about Beckham is, he wasn't just a prospect -- he was a player. Age 22, less than a year after being drafted, he posted a 109 wRC+ in MLB, solid rates across the board. Since then, he's got a wRC+ of 78, never higher than 90 in any single season (and falling as low as 63 last year).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Good interview, thanks for sharing. I'm going to have to call BS on his excuse for not signing Miguel Cabrera, though. If TR couldn't convince Pohlad to go anywhere near $1.9 mil for Cabrera, but a few months later was able to give $1.2 million for one year of Sean Bergman, the primary fault lies with the GM's priorities and salesmanship, not the owner's budget. And this wasn't a one-time thing -- the Twins consistently failed to land good international amateur talent throughout TR's first tenure, even when money wasn't as tight as it was in 1999. Also, it's hard to tell, especially now looking back, but at least one source (below) implies the Marlins had a negotiating advantage due to their record with young Hispanic players. That's certainly something the Twins didn't have. Maybe the Twins over-rated their own personal connection with Miguel? http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Cabrera/Cabrera_bio.html
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe MLBTR is actually pretty accurate. For the most part, they are just collecting reports from elsewhere, but they seem to find responsible sources (and their contract value predictions are darn good). This particular report was from Oakland's local beat writer and simply stated that Valencia and Lawrie are generating trade interest, without any commentary about the level of return they could command, which is a rather uncontroversial statement, I think. (And for the record, the source also said Lawrie is "considered the better bet to be traded" which implies Valencia's trade return would be lower, another opinion that is difficult to dispute.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    At some point earlier this season, Escobar had played more outfield than infield. That's when I first noticed him in the OF section. They probably just haven't bothered to correct it since. I remember Chris Herrmann was usually listed as an OF too, until 2015.
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