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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Freese didn't get a qualifying offer after his age 32 season, and with a clear trend toward QO acceptance, it's not at all clear Plouffe will deserve one after his age 31 season either. (And heck, the QO system may change by that point too.) It should be about as much of a factor for an acquiring team as it should be for the Twins if we retain him (very little).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The poster I was responding to was severely discounting such players as Zobrist, Wright, d'Arnaud, Conforto, Flores, Uribe, etc. on the basis of raw WAR accumulated with a given team in a given season. Several of those cases had little or nothing to do with health or platooning in 2015 -- Zobrist and Uribe were traded to new teams midseason, Conforto was a minor league call-up, Uribe was a full-time player, etc. Also note that I referred to "positions" as well as players. Wright may have been hurt much of the season, but with an assist from Uribe, the Mets actually had more fWAR from the 3B position than the Twins last year. That's the context under which I brought up WAR per PA, sorry I thought that would be clear with the quote I included. Tell it to the other poster who tried connecting Plouffe's trade value to ranking 5th among position players in raw fWAR on each of the World Series teams last year. I wasn't advocating a perfect use of the stat, just pointing out the same flaws that you see with it.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, that's a more exhaustive list than the MLB.com Top 10 I posted earlier. Same Twins name on both lists, though (Zach Jones). Note that Pat Dean is older than every pitcher on that list except Kyle Drabek (who just signed as a minor league free agent and has over 2.5 seasons MLB service time).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I especially appreciate how you left off the eye-roll emoticon from the end of that statement.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure the only serious contention the Phillies will be in come July will be the race for the #1 overall draft pick. And of course, many of the names around or above Plouffe on that list will probably be available in July too. Plouffe is a good, useful player, but it's awfully hard for that level of player to ever really "corner the market" in trade, whether offseason or trade deadline.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, by raw fWAR, Plouffe is tied for 4th on the 2015 Mets with Murphy who had nearly 100 fewer PA than Plouffe, so I think it's safe to give the "tiebreaker" to Murphy and rank Plouffe 5th. And the 2015 Mets and Royals each had 3-4 additional positions/players better than 2015 Plouffe in terms of accumulating fWAR per PA too Ranking 5th in a counting stat, and maybe 8th in its corresponding rate stat, on a select sample of 2 teams, even WS participants, is pretty meaningless when trying to gauge potential trade value. Bill Pecota would have ranked 5th in fWAR on the 1991 Twins, and 2nd on the 1991 Braves, but it didn't mean much for his trade value (he was included as a utility guy in the Bret Saberhagen blockbuster that winter).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs "qualified" filter doesn't work well over multiple seasons. Players have to qualify each of their seasons to make that list. Bryant makes it because he qualified in 2015 but didn't play in 2014, Dominguez makes it because he qualified in 2014 but didn't play at all in 2015. But Freese doesn't qualify despite 980 PA over the two years because he fell 30 PA short in 2015. Others that don't qualify for that list, but have more PA than Bryant include Turner, Harrison, Uribe, Duffy, Wright, etc.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    True, although Plouffe's profile as a competent but low-upside player suggests he may not be the best or even only option midseason, especially in the short term. Plenty of utility guys like Nunez, very cheap veterans like Uribe, and sometimes even more marginal players like Brian Buscher can and do provide that level of performance over the short term. And even if a team doesn't come up with a short-term replacement, they still might just rather hope and wait for their starter to return, like David Wright for the Mets last year, rather than surrender much talent for Plouffe without a longer term plan to utilize him.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, MLBTR predicted Freese would get 3/30, not 3/33, and only noted the third year as "possible" so it's likely he has to field two year offers as well. And a lot of that WAR difference is playing time -- Plouffe has ~25% more PA the last two years. Obviously health matters, but there isn't any strong evidence that Freese is breaking down yet (his missed time last year was due to a fractured finger after a HBP, from which he returned to post a 142 wRC+ over the season's final month). Prorated to Plouffe's PA the last 2 years, Freese would be within 0.4 fWAR per season of Plouffe, well within a rounding error in the WAR calculation. And even that small difference is entirely in defense, which again is important but how much might a team's internal valuation differ from UZR? And even at 33 years old, Freese might still have more offensive upside than Plouffe at 30. Freese's 110 wRC+ last year is almost a match for Plouffe's career high of 112 set two years ago; indeed, Freese's career 115 wRC+ is still higher than Plouffe's single season high. If I had to choose between the two, I would take Plouffe due to age and defense, but they are close enough in performance and contract that I almost certainly would not surrender much in talent or prospects to get Plouffe instead of Freese.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, though, the market isn't just the guys available. You're forgetting the demand side of the equation. Fact is, demand for 3B is low right now, probably one of the reasons the Angels didn't make a QO to Freese. I'm with you, put Plouffe's name out there, but if the offers match the speculation thus far (Bedrosian, etc.), we have to pass. Just sign that potentially very good reliever for 2-3 years for $10-$15 mil on the FA market.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Direct link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/mlbtr-mailbag-plouffe-belt-oday-angels-happ.html In addition to Bedrosian and Gott from the Angels, the writer also speculates about a match with the Padres and mentions Kevin Quackenbush, Brandon Maurer, and Tayron Guerrero, none of them very exciting.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think we are forgetting it, there just aren't a lot of FA SS either. Asdrubal Cabrera might be the best bet for a position conversion, but he has yet to play a single MLB inning at 3B so it could be a risk. Otherwise, the market and the metrics still view Ian Desmond as a SS, and nobody is going to sign Ramirez or Rollins to start at 3B now.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if it's THAT team-friendly anymore. It's two seasons of control, MLBTR projects the first to cost $7.7 mil in arbitration, and the second could clock in around $10 mil. Not bad, but not really a bargain if you have to surrender talent/prospects to get it while David Freese is still on the market.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought the Twins might have been playing a FIP-based Moneyball a couple winters ago, with Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Hughes, but given what we've seen since both in pitching and defense here, I don't think that was the case.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think they took what they could get in Herrmann. I don't think the dude was Arizona's 29th ranked prospect due to an MLB market inefficiency. Also, I don't think moving Hicks was primarily to open up space for Arcia whom they buried this past season anyway. Nor would I call a Plouffe trade "probable" at the moment, although I could be proven wrong. Looks like the gist of the article is that 1B/DH could be in line for a WAR boost via refiguring the positional adjustments. Not really clear whether it caused a market inefficiency, particularly a trickle-down one (which would have had to trickle down a long ways to affect Palka and even Park). They've also talked about selling sluggers Colabello & Vargas to Korea, and actually waived Colabello last winter instead.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    "Moneyball" actually means taking advantage of a market inefficiency. At the time of the book "Moneyball", that was OBP. The poster is asking if it has shifted to power.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be Berrios plus 4 guys on the 40-man roster although I'm not sure what makes a "true" SP prospect. Darnell and Meyer spent most of 2015 in the pen, and Dean has obvious issues not to mention his age/status (twice passed up in Rule 5 drafts previously). Probably not that different in SP prospect depth than the 2015 Rochester season-opening rotation. Jason Wheeler was a "true" prospect a year ago, right? And Darnell was on the pen, just assigned to the pen in favor of Mark Hamburger (?). 2014 wasn't far off either, led by May and Meyer plus Darnell and Kris Johnson also on the 40-man (plus Gilmartin midseason). 2013 also had Hendriks and Gibson leading the way, with Albers and some others emerging midseason. There was a definite dearth of SP prospects there before that, though, probably dating to at least 2007-2008 (although the Twins probably thought a few of those duds were "true" prospects at the time too).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Doogie Wolfson tweets that the Twins don't have interest in Thornton: https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/668453949855285248
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Napoli was actually traded in August too. Boston intends to start Hanley Ramirez at 1B next season. So I don't think Plouffe is a fit for them unless they can move Ramirez or Sandoval this winter.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Finally found the rule: http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3517 See the section at the bottom on "Draft-Excluded Players." Emphasis mine. Basically, guys added to the 40-man after August 15th who would otherwise be Rule 5 eligible (including the guys added last week) can't be outrighted between Dec. 10 and roughly March 15 next spring. They can be traded or released at any time, but you can't pass them through waivers and outright them (removing them from the 40-man but keeping them in the organization) during that period. Which effectively means the player's 40-man spot is secured until March 15 -- if a team needs to free a spot in the interim, they will generally trade or try to waive/outright another player (i.e. what we just tried with Achter and Pinto).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps you misunderstood my post. My reference to minor league FA was saying those were the types that usually fill Dean's expected role (low upside AAA depth). We didn't need to use a 40 man roster spot to fill it.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Herrmann got the Diamondbacks #29 prospect. Fryer got a minor league deal, like he has 3 of the last 4 offseasons. Neither seem like great data points that you need 3 catchers on the 40-man roster at all times. I believe Dan Rohlfing is a free agent. Somehow I think the Twins catching depth won't be materially affected by the quantity of catchers on the 40-man, rather the quality.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    10 interesting prospects available in the Rule 5 draft: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/157830358/top-10-prospects-available-in-rule-5-draft Tyler Jones makes the list, among 7 pitchers vs 3 position players.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, as it currently stands. I suspect we may not make a Rule 5 selection, though, and a trade could also open a spot. Tonkin might be a prime casualty too, since he is out of options anyway.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Fine. But you really think say Felix Jorge is going to feel any more motivation now than he would have if Pat Dean had not been added to the 40-man roster yesterday, but was still given a chance to make the team in spring training and maybe a MLB cameo mid season? Heck, if Dean had been claimed by another club in Rule 5, wouldn't that also provide motivation to other players, both as example of another path to opportunity and as a rotation opening higher up the ladder? I do not doubt motivating factors exist all over baseball, but they are so complex and hard to predict that you can't really use them as a basis for a decision like this one.
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