Otto von Ballpark

Yes, if they are on a 40-man roster on draft day, they will be protected, regardless of which organization originally added them to their roster. I think the Nov. 20 add deadline is in place so teams can't do a ton of last-minute protections to cause confusion, that's all. Guys can still get dropped from the roster and made eligible for Rule 5 after that date, and I suspect you would have the opportunity to add/protect any newly acquired players after that date too.

Seth, the suggestion is that the player would spend the minimum of 90 days active in 2016. So no, they wouldn't be subject to Rule 5 restrictions beyond 2016. And it's happened before, just not to the Twins. Arizona had Oscar Hernandez, the #1 pick in last year's Rule 5 draft, on the DL until July 4th this year, activating him just in time to meet the 90 days requirement by season's end. EDIT TO ADD: Atlanta did it with Daniel Winkler in last year's Rule 5 draft too, although he was recovering from TJ surgery and didn't make the active roster until September. So he will need to spend ~60 days active in 2016 to remove the Rule 5 restrictions. I'd guess it's gaining momentum as a strategy, particularly as more pitchers get TJ surgery. Don't know if the Twins current guys would be particularly attractive candidates, though.

That's my point -- it may benefit the Twins, but I don't think it's a clear benefit to the players, and I'm not comfortable if the Twins are pushing this more aggressively than other clubs.

Considering he was coming off a terrible year in Korea, getting any MLB service time and further time on a 40-man roster was a pretty good outcome for Albers in 2015 (not to mention, getting that playing for his home country's team in Toronto). Had he been exposed to waivers in 2014 rather than sold, he almost certainly would have been claimed by a team offering a better opportunity to get MLB service time. Not a ton, assuming he had similar injury/performance problems, but probably a few months (similar to Colabello's 2014) which could have been worth decent cash and pension benefits.

It's not always "so much more money." When we tried to sell Colabello, first-year foreign player salaries were capped at $300k in Korea. That rule was abolished before we sold Albers, but reports were that Albers only received a salary in the "high six figures". Which is nice, but I'm not sure it's that much better than staying on a 40-man roster and making a minimum of $82k in AAA and prorated $500k during any time spent in MLB (not to mention MLB service time, which impacts pension and benefits as well as potential future MLB salaries). Colabello turned it down, a year away from arbitration Arcia has turned it down, and I'm not sure that Albers doesn't feel some regret about it, even if he ultimately appreciated the cash and opportunity. Given his 2012-2013 performances, had Albers been claimed by a bottom feeding MLB team in 2014, he would have stood a good chance at getting at least a few months MLB time, which could have big pension effects for him down the road. As it was, he had a rough year in Korea, probably affecting his opportunities upon his return too.

I assume he meant before the July 31st deadline. Cotts wasn't acquired until August 21st.

I thought that too, but the sheer volume of recent instances suggest the Twins aren't targeting this opportunity, but rather pushing it on most 40-man guys who aren't in their plans, guys who are obviously still good enough to get claimed on waivers but just not return anything in trade at the moment. Like, the Twins want to reclaim the 40-man spot, but want to get more in return than the waiver price. Maybe the Twins even think they are doing these guys a favor in the process, and the guys even appreciate it, but it's hard to thinking that way exclusively knowing how we benefit financially from the arrangement.

Hasn't Dean been Rule 5 eligible the previous two winters? Can't say I see him as a likely pick this year, much less as a guy who could stick, he will be 27 in May and has career K/9 rates of 5.0, 4.8, and 4.9 at A, AA, and AAA, respectively. Unclaimed, a team would stand a decent shot at getting him as a minor league free agent next winter.

The quotes from Berardino suggest the Twins really push Asia to players, more than other teams -- why? http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/11/16/twinsights-kennys-vargas-drawing-interest-from-asian-club/ I sorta get it with the older AAA guys, but even then, we sold Albers over there, he was terrible, and he made MLB again his first season back. We tried to sell Colabello, but he declined and had a productive MLB season in Toronto. Kris Johnson was sold to Japan too. And now it seems we are broaching the topic with both Vargas and Arcia at a much younger age? What gives? Are we really helping all these guys or hindering them?

The writing was on the wall last year for Pinto to make this list. Not surprising at all to see him regress in AAA and have no place on the Twins team, and perhaps not even in the org anymore. Is he due in Venezuela soon? Would be nice to see him get back on track, for the sake of his future MLB job prospects: http://m.eluniversal.com/deportes/beisbol/151111/tigres-esperan-a-josmil-pinto-para-el-fin-de-semana

Actually, Ramon Ortiz and Livan Hernandez were indeed both dealt midseason. As was Correia and Lohse. (Lohse even had another year of control left.)

Pretty sure you can drop guys right up to the Rule 5 draft if you want to pick a guy. Wasn't Ortiz released in December 2002 to make room for a Rule 5 guy?

Thanks for the date. So he will be signed/added before the Rule 5 on Dec. 10.

Steamer is almost certainly based on FIP, and it doesn't directly factor injuries (so it doesn't know that Nolasco has barely pitched at all since ankle surgery). Meanwhile it also probably doesn't know that Upton could be a solid platoon guy.

I noted that Burton was good, as well as Fien. But those two, plus Boyer, are about the only successes of this strategy for the Twins over the past 4 years. The idea that we should employ that strategy only, to the exclusion of multi-year reliever deals, with an iffy pen entering an expected contention year, is a stretch.

Technically, league average ERA+ for starters is more like 95. But I agree with your larger points.

This is where I think a lot of the disagreement lies. I think you are vastly overrating the success of the Twins recent strategies in bullpen building -- perhaps not realizing the span of time that their few success stories have covered? Going back over rosters and spring training invites, here are the FA bullpen candidates the Twins brought in from outside the organization since TR took over again in 2011. 2012 Jason Bulger Jared Burton Casey Fien Jeff Gray (technically a waiver claim, but I will include him anyway because we love him ) Esmerling Vásquez Matt Maloney Luis Perdomo 2013 Rich Harden (not sure if he should count as a starter, since he never pitched) Rafael Perez Bryan Augenstein Shairon Martis (technically purchased the previous summer) Virgil Vasquez Tim Wood Mike O'Connor 2014 Aaron Thompson Matt Hoffman Yohan Pino Matt Guerrier Mark Hamburger 2015 Blaine Boyer Tim Stauffer Obviously the star of this group is Fien, who not only has been an acceptable arm, but was also controllable for a bunch of pre-arb seasons at the time of signing. Burton was solid too, but controllable for fewer years and not as cheaply (since he was already arb eligible and only 2 years from FA). Both of those signings were almost 4 years ago already. Outside of that, Gray and Boyer are the only ones who survived the MLB season, and of course Gray was terrible and Boyer is now a FA again. Over 4 years, that's not a record that suggests bullpen improvement is more likely by this method than a multi-year FA deal in 2016.

I went to the 2013 MLBTR Free Agent Tracker, and out of 74 non-Mariano relievers listed who didn't sign multi year deals that winter (basically everybody on the market other than the guys jorgenswest highlighted in this article), only 16 pitched even 1 relief inning at replacement level (0+ bWAR) in 2013 for an MLB club that signed them that offseason. By comparison, 17 of the 27 contract seasons for those multi-year relievers met that (admittedly low) criteria. The most non-multi-year relievers on that list signed by a single team that winter was 5. On average, only one of those would meet that low criteria, perhaps wasting multiple roster spots and evaluation opportunities in the process. Only 38 innings per season average for the multi-year relievers, over the life of their deals? Try 14 relief IP on average for the rest of the market. Based on this data, I see no reason why a team with a weak pen but realistic plans to contend should completely shun the multi-year FA relief market over $4-$5 mil annually, especially when successful examples of this team's single-year FA reliever strategy seemto be limited to 2 guys (Burton and Boyer) over a four-season span.

If Park is signed, with Mauer and Sano already in the fold, Pinto and Arcia out of options, Walker coming on to the 40-man roster, and Kepler capable at 1B too, Vargas might barely be Plan D at DH/1B. That kind of guy has a pretty tenuous hold on a 40-man roster spot regardless of options remaining (see Chris Colabello last winter). If you think he could get cast aside for a FA signing, a Rule 5 pick, or even a waiver claim over the next few months, it might make more sense to cash him in for something now.

Why would the Padres want Nolasco? They've got a great park for attracting better reclamation projects cheaper on the FA market, and a pretty good track record at bringing up pitchers from the minors too. And as mentioned upthread, Melvin Upton may be overpaid, but he was actually useful in 2015 and fills a useful role for the Padres (who have no real CF right now, and fragile options in the corners).

That makes sense. I just didn't think they'd reach a deal and wait to announce it -- I am sure Park and his Korean team would not want to shoulder the risk for whatever marginal benefit the Twins would get out of the delay (i.e. better timing the AJ Achter waiver process). I would guess it's not quick. It took 21 days for the Pirates to reach an agreement with Jung Ho Kang last winter, and even that was "pending physical" which took a few days longer before it was official. And Park's deal will involve more money, which could slow negotiations.

Is the Park contract due before Rule 5? Still not sure why they would have a deal but be sitting on it (or why Park or his Korean team would tolerate the delay and the risk it puts on them). They could add Park now and waive Achter on Nov. 20 if they need the spot then, I would think Nov. 20 might be a good time to slip guys thru waivers as teams fill up.

Technically, they only have 33 on the roster now, I don't think they have added their new Rule 5 protections yet.

That makes some sense, Kwak, but 2/12 or 3/15 FA deal is pretty low risk too, and might save us from scrambling to find another Jepsen available and give up talent for him at the trade deadline.

Compared to what? Again, neither Cameron nor jorgenswest offer any point of comparison. By definition, it's pretty hard to think of a single 3/15 or so contract as being risky, much less incredibly risky. How many teams regret signing the relievers referenced in this article? How many of them even remember signing those relievers? All of those guys were in the upper levels of our system in 2015 too, and took a step backward. Shouldn't that be a lesson to count on them less than we did entering 2015? Chargois has an excuse that he was coming back from injury, but he alone isn't that great at the moment, and the other guys don't have any such excuse. Oliveros is a minor league free agent now. I guess that's the type of guy you want to bring in? Maybe re-sign Boyer if he was willing to take the one-year Stauffer deal? Seems to me that will be more likely to repeat 2015 than improve upon it. How much better would the 2015 Twins pen have been if we had ponied up for Gregerson or Neshek? And it's not an either-or thing, the Astros signed those guys, found a waiver claim in Will Harris, called up a young guy like Velasquez, etc. Twins can do that do. I just think finding at least one guy in FA gives you better odds at filling out a competent pen. If it turns out that our young guys are demanding a promotion by performance, and Perkins and Jepsen are fully healthy and effective, and May isn't needed in the rotation, and the Harden/Madson injury flier actually makes good, and Mark Lowe or whomever is healthy on a 2/12 or 3/15 FA deal, that will be a good problem to have, and no, I don't see the 2/12 or 3/15 as notably hurting us or reducing our flexibility.