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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That is fine, but you claimed Sano came back weighing more after the off season. That doesn't appear to be true -- at least from what I have read, he did lose weight, just not as much as hoped. Not sure how much to blame the player -- maybe the team didn't emphasize the weight loss as much, with the position change they were also pushing. Edit: just read the Reuse article, and he notes a 7 pound weight gain from Sano. I swear I read about a ~5 pound loss previously though. Admittedly I don't care all that much, so I haven't followed the weight reportage too closely...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That doesn't necessarily mean he gained weight over the offseason, though. Just that he didn't lose as much as they wanted.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    If you swap Dean for Gibson, and leave Hughes in the pen, you still need another starter. Either pulling May from the pen, or dropping a reliever to bring a starter up from AAA. I hope they don't option May. It shouldn't be hard for a team with 13 pitchers including Hughes in the pen to stretch out a guy at the MLB level -- and you'd start by not using him for a two-pitch appearance like last night...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure Sano weighed less compared to the end of last season -- I believe his reported weight "gain" was relative to last spring. Vargas, I have no idea.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I suppose Dean is a logical choice to send out when Gibson returns, although that still leaves you short a starter if Hughes is indeed in the pen. If they send one of Boshers/Rogers out for, say, Milone, I'd rather just start May and call up Chargois. Personally, I'd just release Jepsen. I know "release player X" is a common unrealistic fan sentiment, but it shouldn't be with Jepsen right now. His value is undeniably negative, and his future here is zero. The only potential benefit to a turnaround at this point would be convincing a desperate team to take on his last month's salary in August (~$1 mil). Not worth it to deny playing time to interesting relievers who could be in our 2017 pen. I could see them just moving Hughes back into the rotation though too.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Dean, with May to the rotation would be highly logical. At some point, you have to consider releasing Jepsen if you really like that many other arms in the pen too.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    If you just want to save the money, you can non-tender him. The non-prospect is practically a meaningless part of the equation (in fact, it is probably more than offset by the potential to negotiate a lower salary with Milone after non-tendering him, if you want to keep him around as an option or potential asset).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That was indeed a poor debut, although I will note the White Sox have only had a few days to work with him so far. If he fell into some bad habits in San Diego, or failed to make some necessary adjustments during that time, his initial results with the White Sox will likely be a continuation of that (kind of like Liriano's results in his 2 months with the White Sox).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the Twins were in a tricky spot with Milone. Perhaps some team would have been willing to pick up his $4.5 mil tab in arbitration, but probably not at the cost of any prospect of note. Similar situation to Plouffe, really. At which point, the Twins might as well just non-tender him if their only benefit is saving the cash (at which point they could try re-signing the player for a lower salary as well, which might be more tradeable later).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. Walter Johnson pitched with the same organization from age 19-39. The Ortiz equivalent move would have been releasing Walter Johnson after his third season so you could play Mathieu LeCroix instead. A move that would have been cursed by fans until the franchise itself was moved and its past incarnation forgotten about.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not about concluding which players are bad in two months, it's about collecting data. Right now we have a ton of data about Dozier, Plouffe, etc., and very little about Polanco. What's a better use of limited playing time resources in the middle of a lost season, seeing Dozier's career PA # 2600-2800, or Plouffe's career PA # 2700-2900, or Polanco's career PA # 50-250? Especially when we have to make decisions this winter about Polanco (out of options), Santana (out of options), and Plouffe, Escobar, and Nunez (all due raises in arbitration). And the Mets trade for Kelly Johnson suggests trades can come before the end of July if the team wants it to. I suspect the Twins could have eaten $3 mil and moved Plouffe to the Mets for an interesting relief prospect a few days ago. But instead they would rather pay him that same $3 mil for him to play here ahead of Polanco and Escobar in a lost season the next two months, and hope that something better is available July 31st which it likely won't be, given Plouffe's salary and track record and the general 3B market. Also, the Twins aren't only limiting themselves by waiting for trade opportunities. Pat Dean is in the starting rotation, for example, while Trevor May threw 2 pitches in a one batter relief appearance last night, again in the middle of a lost season...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    While Chacin did a stint in the minors last year after being released by Colorado, he was not traded from the minor leagues this year. And his salary this season is only $1.1 mil. Brendan Ryan was indeed in the minor leagues when he was traded last month, but of course he was on a minor league contract and minimum salary. And he was traded for "cash considerations or a player to be named later" which if history is any guide, likely means a nominal amount of cash, comparable to the waiver fee. Again, neither example is particularly comparable to Tommy Milone, who is still owed something like $3 mil. Nobody is taking on his salary in trade right now, probably not until he returns to MLB and starts performing (or a team is desperate and his remaining salary is low in August, what I like to call the "Kevin Correia Theorem"). Indeed, the Angels passed on claiming Milone for the waiver fee (plus his salary, of course) when they opted to trade for Chacin and his salary instead.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Heck, you could probably even bid on getting Plouffe back, assuming his new team also isn't thrilled with his potential $10 mil arb award.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario actually replaced another fairly young player in Arcia, who is also getting replaced by Kepler right now. And Grossman replaced Rosario. No veteran has been usurped in this series of moves. Polanco played pretty well in limited duty, better than multiple incumbents, but got shipped out again. Trevor May did just fine as a starter too, but apparently he's behind Pat Dean on the SP depth chart now.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, I don't think a 4 year deal is likely. I wouldn't be all that surprised to see them eventually buy out his last arb year and another year or two, though -- this is the same organization that tore up the last two years of Hughes' original deal to extend him 3 more beyond that, and who -- at the July trade deadline -- saw fit to lock up Suzuki as their starting catcher for 2 years, apparently content with his first half over performance and fearing having to find a catcher elsewhere...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds about right: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/os-working-on-morse-trade-unlikely-to-land-willingham.html In the most recent Ortiz thread, I posted a quote from Epstein that said the Twins asked for "a pretty good prospect" in trade talks before simply releasing Ortiz too. I get the feeling that the Twins ask for decent prospects and for the other team to pick up 100% of the salary. And the other teams probably say "well, if nothing else works out, we'll get back to you" so nothing happens until the end of July or more likely August or not at all, and we generally get nothing back but <2 months salary relief at best anyway.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure what you mean. I'm more willing to receive cash than offer it too. Twins generally haven't received much cash in trade either -- probably something like the waiver price. Like what we probably paid to get Neal Cotts last August. I guess the Mariners picked up the tab on Bret Boone back in the day, not sure if there have been others.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That's my guess too. Or even if he has picked up the phone, TR isn't willing to eat any money at this point. Of if no one has called the Twins, everyone in baseball knows TR won't eat any money at this point. (Have the Twins ever eaten any money in trade? I remember them dragging out the Morneau discussions with Pittsburgh over his final month's salary.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. Akeel Morris' age and stat line looks not unlike Lester Oliveros circa 2011, when we got him for Delmon Young. Probably not much of an asset, but an interesting piece for a rebuilding club. (Oliveros' tenure with the Twins may have been somewhat more interesting if he hadn't gone down for TJ surgery within a year of being acquired.) Kelly Johnson probably had something like ~$1.3 mil left on his 2016 contract, as compared to $4.8 for Plouffe.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Where they've shown discretion in crafting the 25-man roster so far is basically as follows: Duffey over Milone Kintzler over Fien Grossman over Rosario Centeno over Murphy And within the 25-man roster: Nunez over Escobar as starting SS Dean over hobbled Hughes in the rotation Plus Rogers or Boshers (presumably whoever isn't optioned when Gibson returns) over an extra bench player. I guess it's better than completely standing pat, but in the number of moves and the priority given to guys like Dean and Boshers, it's not really what you want to see from a team that should be looking to the future.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe Seth is correct, Thorpe would be Rule 5 eligible this winter as he was signed under 18 and this would be his 5th Rule 5 draft upcoming. With all of the time he has spent in rookie leagues and disabled lists, though, I believe he will also be eligible for a 4th option year, for what it's worth.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco barely played when he was here, that's not an audition. Centeno has started only 11 of 29 games since being called up, and in at least 3 of those Suzuki was held out with injury. Also, not all auditions are equal (Pat Dean starting over Trevor May, for example, or Boshers over Chargois, etc.). This was brought up in a recent thread about Pat Dean. They've pretty much done the bare minimum for auditions so far, given the circumstances (mostly injuries to Sano/Santana and the health of Hughes).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Pat Dean, with Trevor May sliding into the rotation.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The White Sox got one for 3/27, or basically Phil Hughes' first contract (with a much better track record than Hughes, even considering the last 1.5 average years in the NL). There is very little risk for the White Sox here, assuming they don't give Shields an extension.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    You can audition rookies in August and September in almost any season, but it doesn't give you a whole lot of useful data to prepare for next year (see Kennys Vargas, Chris Parmelee, etc.). The Twins epically poor start has given them an advantage that they already know, at this early date, that they can start to look to the future. No sense delaying it until August to try buoying modest trade values. There is absolutely room today for Chargois in pen without waiting for Abad to be dealt, there is room for May and/or Berrios in the rotation without waiting for a SP trade, innings for Wheeler to see if he is worth protecting on the 40-man again this winter, etc.
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