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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Sano has been batting third, and Kepler fifth already. And for what it's worth, 3 of Polanco's 6 starts earlier this year were in the 1 or 2 spot in the lineup, so I suspect we will see him up there if/when he gets to play. The marginal increase in at-bats at this point probably isn't worth it for a guy like Buxton, who has a lot more to worry about right now.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Just from looking at their stats and profiles, Mejia reminds me a bit of Gilmartin.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Speaking personally, I was initially pleasantly surprised that we made a trade at all, given our reputation and still being a few days away from the deadline. Then upon further reflection, I realized that 3 days isn't that far from the deadline, and it really shouldn't have been a surprise -- Nunez was about the most obvious trade piece that TR could have possibly handed to Antony. (And of course, the revelation that Mejia is not a current "top 100" prospect in any meaningful way, as was reported on the first page of this thread.) Still a solid move that I endorse, but I don't think it tells us a whole lot about the Twins or Antony.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Upon further reflection, I think I agree. Murphy has really been awful at AAA, and Turner is starting to look like he is on the Butera path to MLB. Might as well turn to Garver, barring a more interesting catcher option coming back in trade. Which is why, although admittedly like most prospects he probably won't amount to anything in MLB, it sure would be have been nice to be able to give John Hicks a shot right now. Because frankly I'd be shocked if the called up Garver right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if the lack of reasonable alternatives prevents us from dealing Suzuki at all.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you partially answered your own post there. The Marlins probably didn't want to take on ~$33 mil in future obligations right now, plus surrendering prospects. I suspect a few other contenders with SP needs (i.e. Baltimore) will be in the same boat.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Why wouldn't you just promote Murphy, and move Garver up to AAA? As bad as Murphy has been, he's still more likely to break camp with the Twins next year. Maybe if August sees Murphy make no progress, and Garver adjust rapidly to AAA, you could call him up for September.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    So if they use Polanco off the bench instead, as strongly hinted in Rob Antony's comments in the Strib today, will you be critical of that? Or will you later add a qualifier, like you did with your "It's Time!" article about minor league promotions a few weeks ago?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally agreed, but it was a few months ago. Milone is owed less than half of his already fairly modest salary as compared to when we waived him in early May. I could see a team claiming him now after passing on him earlier, particularly once we get to August.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Opens up a 25-man roster spot, yes. But, since Mejia is on the 40-man roster, this cuts both ways. We won't be able to use Nunez's 40-man spot to protect one of our own prospects from the Rule 5 draft this winter. Might not know quite how to grade this aspect until we see what other trades they make, and what kind of 40-man decisions they make through November. But I'm cool with it. We had to move Nunez, and we got something interesting.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure if it's that much higher than what we realistically expected. When adjusted for the whole population of minor league players, BA's list might have him ~140th overall. MLB and Sickels probably have him lower. And that's not terribly meaningful -- heck, Sickels does a top 175, and then he listed 145 more players who all had a case to rank between 140-175. I'm not sure there's much difference between a 140 and a 200 or perhaps even a 300. I think if someone had suggested a prospect like that in a hypothetical Nunez trade, I don't think that would have been dismissed as an unrealistic expectation.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I was thinking more along these lines earlier -- that seems hard to quantify. There aren't that many starters who throw that number of innings to think of that as "average 4th" anything. Maybe WAR per IP? Minimum 10 GS in 2015, I found that starters ranked 91-120 by fWAR/IP averaged 1.6 WAR per 162 IP. Then again, only 10 of those 30 starters actually pitched 162 innings. 8 of them didn't even pitch 100. So I'm really not sure who to label as "average #4" or what to expect from them...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, that makes some sense. Definition #1 actually might hurt our view of Mejia -- Sickels combines 4/5 in his article, and it seems the dividing line for him is more at #3: So if the Fangraphs prospect guy thinks along the same lines as Sickels, his comments about Mejia qualify as "not a bad thing" but short of " a huge compliment."
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    That's how production from the position can be misleading. Travis has a 108 OPS+ this year, career 121 OPS+ if you include his debut last year. And he's healthy and hitting right now. It really doesn't matter that his replacements were terrible earlier this year. (Heck, even if Travis were injured again, they'd probably look for a shorter term fix than Dozier, banking on Travis returning again in 2017.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry if I gave that impression, not saying it's not a good trade. But it may not be quite as good as it looked on first glance, when I heard about his "top 100" rank and 9.5 K/9 at AAA. What is a league average 4th starter, by the way, in terms of approximate performance? I kinda get the ace/#2 debate, but I'm not sure how to quantify "league average 4th starter". By the time you get to 4th in the "average" rotation, I think you are generally dealing with pitchers who rise and fall into that spot, rather than guys who are consistently average in the role.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Toronto has Devon Travis healthy again. They're not going to trade or bench him in favor of Dozier right now. Pittsburgh has a full effective infield right now too, if they want to bench Harrison. Freese and Kang, plus Mercer has been hitting this year too. I guess they could slide Freese to 1B, but I don't see them wanting to bench Harrison right now, nor would they probably pay the price we'd want for a guy like Dozier.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    To those that think this trade suggests Antony, as leader, might offer meaningful change from the TR era, and helps his case for the full-time job: does it cancel that out if he has indeed promoted Polanco again to sit on the bench, perhaps behind Danny Santana?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not criticizing the move. I'm on record as fully endorsing the Nunez trade, and giving Antony credit for getting it done (even if I probably over-rated the prospect on first glance). I'm criticizing those who suggest it should matter in Antony's bid for the full time job. I agree that there's pretty much nothing that Antony can do publicly right now to make his bid for the job -- his case, if he has one, would have to come privately in the form of a thorough and comprehensive plan for re-organization and evaluation throughout the front office and player development systems.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Ugh. If that's the case, why not call up a pitcher instead? Say, Chargois, or maybe even Berrios with another starter moving to the pen? You've got 4 outfielders not counting Santana, and you've got 4 infielders (2B/SS/3B) including Santana, so you don't need Polanco to come off your bench unless you're ready to dump Santana. (An aside: not sure how this is decided, but Sano is not listed as an infielder on the Twins roster right now, but rather as a DH, which seems unusual since he's started 24 games at 3B this year, 37 in RF, and only 9 at DH. And his last start at DH was 3 weeks ago...)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be his "ceiling" though, right? What he achieves if he stays healthy and successfully makes the leap to MLB? A lot of prospects would probably be great return if they hit their ceiling. This scouting report doesn't suggest he is a particularly strong bullpen candidate either, if starting doesn't work out. He might not have as much margin for error to provide value even if he doesn't hit that ceiling, as compared to some other pitching prospects.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure about the degree to which Mejia has "stepped it up this year." It was his third go-around in AA, after all. Year / ERA / FIP 2014 / 4.67 / 3.78 2015 / 2.45 / 3.41 2016 / 1.94 / 3.19 His K rate finally climbed to AA league average this season, but just barely (8.0 K/9, vs league average 7.6). His AAA K rate looks better, but in such a small sample -- can he sustain it? The PCL also has a higher strikeout rate than his AA league, or Rochester's AAA International League, so if we give him a PCL ERA/HR discount, we probably also have to discount part of his PCL K rate boost so far too. He's never sustained a K rate this high before -- 7.7 K/9 career.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not really whether it's a good move or bad move, or plus/minus on his resume, it's about the type of move this is, and its degree of importance in fixing the issues in Twins baseball ops. It's like if I was temporarily put in charge of my office, because we had some long-term under-performance under my old boss. And I clean out some old file cabinets and arrange the furniture better, maybe I staff an open clerical spot with what looks like a solid employee. That's great, but it really doesn't address the issues of the long-term under-performance, hence it really shouldn't matter if I am making a case for the permanent job.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Except he's not a top 100, except on BP a year and a half ago and on BA's midseason list which excludes a lot of players. (Last year, BA only published a "top 50" midseason list, which suggests that Mejia may rank about 50 spots lower when the full population of minor league players is considered again this winter. Maybe ranking ~140th? And that might be the high ranking of the lists -- Sickels seemed lower on him than most, C+ and 12th in the Giants system last winter, so I suspect he still may not crack Sickels top 175 this winter. Mejia is an interesting prospect, but there is no evidence that he is currently a "top 100" prospect as the term is commonly understood.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB's list included new draft guys, 15 of them to be exact. Although it included only Berrios and Jay as Twins SP, so perhaps you were thinking of BA's midseason list. I think the world might be better off without the confusion brought upon it by midseason top 100 prospect lists.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. I think that's what moved him up the BA list. I think I had it confused with the MLB midseason update, which did include 2016 draftees but of course did not include Mejia (and only 2 Giants).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, that's the feeling I am getting too. I could see Polanco continuing to spend too much time on the MLB bench, and maybe just sharing 3B with Sano until Plouffe returns.
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