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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Blast from the past: former Twins farmhand Tyler Ladendorf, traded by the Twins for Orlando Cabrera all the way back in 2009, was just added to the Cubs major league roster. Ladendorf also had a couple cups of coffee for the A's in 2015-2016.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    So Drew Maggi is in the Saints lineup tonight, as they begin their season-ending series in Toledo while the Twins do likewise in Kansas City...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The 4-way tie, across 2 wild card spots, would actually have a fairly straightforward resolution -- and might be a peek into how MLB would like to expand the postseason? They'd simply take two of the tied teams and have them play a "game 163" tiebreaker against each other, and do the same for the other two teams. After that, the winners of the two tiebreaker games would advance to the official "wild card" game. Not that I would endorse such an expansion, although it would be fun to see it happen by ties this year.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Fun article on the Mariners and all of the tiebreaker possibilities over at Fangraphs today https://blogs.fangraphs.com/team-entropy-2021-dial-m-for-mariners/ The Jays made this difficult with their loss last night, but the wildest scenario is if the Jays sweep the Orioles, the Yankees get swept by the Rays, and Boston and Seattle each win 2 out of 3. Then it's a 4-way tie for the 2 wild card spots! Very unlikely, though (less than 1% odds). A two-way tie for the 2nd wild card spot is about 27% likely at this point, and a 3-way tie is about 8%.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Standings as of Friday, October 1: TEAM W L PCT WCBG COIN FLIP ODDS REMAINING SCHEDULE Yankees 91 68 .572 +2.0 97.8% 3 vs TB Red Sox 89 70 .560 -- 47.9% 3 at WSH Mariners 89 70 .560 -- 44.6% 3 vs LAA Blue Jays 88 71 .553 1.0 9.7% 3 vs BAL Relevant games tonight (all on MLB.TV): 1. BOS (Rodriguez) at WSN (Rogers), 6:05 PM CDT 2. TBR (McClanahan) at NYY (Cortes), 6:05 PM CDT 3. BAL (Eshelman) at TOR (Matz), 6:07 PM CDT 4. LAA (Suarez) at SEA (Gonzalez), 9:10 PM CDT
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the Orioles did their part, beating the Red Sox tonight. So the Mariners and Red Sox are now tied for the 2nd wild card. The Jays, however, lost to the Yankees. The Jays remain 1 game out of the 2nd spot, and the Yankees remain 2 games in the lead.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    And with yet another loss to Atlanta, the Phillies are now mathematically eliminated.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    By Pythag, the Mariners are an incredible +14 wins on the season -- they've actually been outscored by 48 runs overall! The Yankees are also Pythag over-performers, but a more reasonable +6 wins. (And Toronto is a Pythag under-performer, at minus-7 wins.)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the AL Wild Card race is pretty much the only race left in the MLB regular season, but it is shaping up to be pretty interesting! Standings as of Thursday, September 30: TEAM W L PCT WCBG COIN FLIP ODDS REMAINING SCHEDULE Yankees 90 68 .570 +1.0 86.3% 1 at TOR; 3 vs TB Red Sox 89 69 .563 -- 61.5% 1 at BAL; 3 at WSH Mariners 89 70 .560 0.5 33.6% 3 vs LAA Blue Jays 88 70 .557 1.0 18.6% 1 vs NYY; 3 vs BAL Relevant games tonight (all on MLB.TV): 1. BOS (Pivetta) at BAL (A. Wells), 6:05 PM CDT 2. NYY (Kluber) at TOR (Ray), 6:07 PM CDT 3. SEA is off
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    After beating the Phillies again last night, Atlanta's magic number is down to 1 now. So unless they lose out while the Phillies win out, the NL East crown will be Atlanta's again.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, it looks like the Yankees-Blue Jays game tonight is on ESPN, so it will be blacked out in the USA on MLB.TV. (Looking ahead, it doesn't appear that the Yankees, Jays, Red Sox, or Mariners have any more national TV games in the regular season, so there should be plenty of other opportunities to follow the AL wild card race on MLB.TV.) MLB.TV does have a "Big Inning" show on weeknights, that looks in on various games. Scheduled to start tonight around 8:30 PM CDT, and I imagine it should pay some attention to the end of Yankees-Jays, Boston-Baltimore, and Philadelphia-Atlanta, plus the beginning of Seattle-Oakland at 9:10. https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/big-inning
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That's definitely a turnaround at AAA for Faucher, although he's now a 26 year old minor league reliever, and those numbers are good but not eye-popping (similar to, say, Derek Law's performance with St. Paul this year). We'll see if the Rays protect Faucher from the Rule 5 draft this winter, or in theory the Twins could take him back. Reminds me a bit of Alan Busenitz, who we acquired at the same age in the Nolasco-Santiago swap of 2016.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I was hoping that the Phillies would make it interesting, but after last night's loss to Atlanta, the Phillies are now 3.5 games back with only 5 to play (potentially 6 to play for Atlanta -- they have a game vs the Rockies that would have to be made up next Monday if it has any playoff implications). Phillies have a little control, with 2 more in Atlanta tonight (Wednesday) and tomorrow (Thursday). But their odds are down to about 3.8%, per Fangraphs. Even if they can manage to win the next 2, the Phillies would still need some help from the Mets and potentially the Rockies: https://tomahawktake.com/2021/09/27/the-atlanta-braves-game-scenarios-for-this-week/ SCENARIO 3 – Braves lose 2 of 3 games vs. Philly. In this scenario, the Phillies are still trailing by 1.5 games when they leave Atlanta, so they still would have a lot of work to do. If Atlanta sweeps the Mets, the Phillies are closed out. If Atlanta beats NY 2 of 3 times, the Phillies have to win out just to force the Colorado game to be played on Monday, October 4. If Atlanta wins that, they win the division if Atlanta loses, they tie with the Phillies.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The Yankees are in a good spot -- now the sole occupant of the top AL wild card spot by 2 games with only 5 to play. Fangraphs "coin flip" odds give the Yankees a 94.8% likelihood to make the postseason. Still, I am sure they will be motivated to lock up home field for the wild card game, and to play spoiler for their division rival. And while the Jays and Red Sox both lost last night, the Mariners defeated the A's for the 11th straight time and are only a half-game out of the 2nd wild card, despite being outscored by 50 runs on the season (+14 wins ahead of their Pythag record). TEAM W L PCT WCBG COIN FLIP ODDS REMAINING SCHEDULE Yankees 90 67 .573 +2 94.8% 2 at TOR; 3 vs TB Red Sox 88 69 .561 -- 55.4% 2 at BAL; 3 at WSH Mariners 88 70 .557 0.5 30.9% 1 vs OAK; 3 vs LAA Blue Jays 87 70 .549 1 18.8% 2 vs NYY; 3 vs BAL Athletics 85 73 .538 3.5 0.0% 1 at SEA; 3 at HOU
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you believe in tanking, in a GM's heart? How the losses can give their rebuild a head start When it's tanking, losing is groovy Every loss means draft position's improving Seems contradict'ry, 100 losses the goal Like when a fair ball hits off the foul pole If you believe in tanking, you're losing to win Clutch hitting today becomes like a sin Fill your roster with enough AAA guys And they won't win a game no matter how hard they try The fans tune out and start leaving the stands Sell them on the five-year plan (two-year instrumental break) If you believe in tanking, just swallow your pride The success cycle's rolling, too early to ride But maybe, if your scouting is right You'll find the next Mike Trout on draft night Then draft and develop and the right FA signs And the future success will just blow your mind (Do you believe like the Cubs believed?) Do you believe, believer? (Do you believe like the Astros believed?) Do you believe in tanking? (Do you believe like the White Sox believe?) Do you believe in tanking?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins exceed 2 million in season attendance for the first time in franchise history. It's such a hot ticket that Minneapolis police are cracking down on ticket scalping. Despite losing the game to the 2nd place Royals, the Twins still hold a division lead of 5 games with only 7 to play. Also see an ad for TwinsVision Pay-Per-View, the only way to watch these games without going to the Metrodome. Watch the full newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now. View full video
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins exceed 2 million in season attendance for the first time in franchise history. It's such a hot ticket that Minneapolis police are cracking down on ticket scalping. Despite losing the game to the 2nd place Royals, the Twins still hold a division lead of 5 games with only 7 to play. Also see an ad for TwinsVision Pay-Per-View, the only way to watch these games without going to the Metrodome. Watch the full newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's how the AL Wild Card race stands as of now (Sep. 24), using Fangraphs "coin flip" odds: TEAM W L PCT WCBG WC ODDS REMAINING SCHEDULE Red Sox 88 65 .575 +2 94.4% 3 vs NYY; 3 at BAL; 3 at WSH Yankees 86 67 .562 - 61.4% 3 at BOS; 3 at TOR; 3 vs TB Blue Jays 85 68 .556 1 32.8% 3 at MIN; 3 vs NYY; 3 vs BAL Mariners 84 69 .549 2 10.5% 3 at LAA; 3 vs OAK; 3 vs LAA Athletics 82 71 .536 4 0.6% 3 vs HOU; 3 at SEA; 3 at HOU I like to use the "coin flip" odds (every game is assumed to be 50/50) at this point because there are such a small number of games left and anything can happen, like the Twins winning. But FWIW, Toronto would be upgraded to 41.4%, with the Yankees and Mariners downgraded to 55.7% and 5.3% respectively, using Fangraphs projections instead of coin flips. The Mariners have defeated the A's an incredible 9 times in a row now, 12-4 against them overall for the season. Just an even split there (7-7) would have had the A's tied with the Blue Jays now and the Mariners all but officially eliminated.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    While it was a feel-good story, Maggi's call-up last weekend was fully legitimate -- we had a shortstop inactive for reasons unrelated to getting Maggi on the roster, and Maggi was the #1 shortstop in St. Paul with a respectable 122 wRC+ on the season to boot. And getting into a 4-run game late in Toronto, as either a pinch hitter or defensive replacement, would have served some legitimate purpose too -- get his feet wet in case we actually needed him to enter or even start a future, closer game. Maggi may still return to the Twins this season and see game action, but it's likely to look a bit more forced -- for example, a phantom IL trip for someone, combined with a scrubs lineup or mass substitutions in game 162. It still counts, of course, and he could have advance notice for family to attend, but it would have also been nice to take more advantage of the natural opportunity that presented itself last weekend. He earned it!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    This is a common misconception that I have repeated in the past too. But apparently one day of MLB service time only qualifies a player to *buy into* the MLB player health plan for life. It's not free for non-active players. (It's probably a pretty good health plan, but I'm not sure how much it costs.) And the pension benefit for 43 days of service (one-quarter of a season) is far from lucrative or even livable. Here's a document detailing pension benefits from 2012. Best as I can calculate, from page 114 and the table 7 on page 112, 43 days of service would have resulted in a pension of $328 per month, approx. $4,000 per year, beginning at age 62. To get ~$30,000 per year at age 62, you'd need 2 full years of MLB service time.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Maggi indeed did NOT have any family travel to Toronto, according to this: https://www.mlb.com/news/drew-maggi-called-up-to-twins-after-11-minor-league-seasons Making things tougher is the fact that his dad doesn't have a passport, and the short notice meant his family wouldn't be able to make it to Canada to potentially see him play.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    As for the Toronto series: Game 1: we won 7-3. Presumably Maggi plays solid defense? If so, we could have easily justified inserting Maggi as a defensive replacement for the bottom of the ninth, either directly at 2B for Arraez or at SS with Polanco shifting to 2B. (Pinch-hitting would have been a little tougher, you would have had to pinch-hit for Arraez leading off the top of the 8th.) Game 2: we lost 6-2. Astudillo played the whole game at 1B, seems like that would have been an easy spot to somehow switch Maggi in defensively for the last inning or two (Astudillo was the last out in the top of the 7th, Jays extended the lead to 4 in the bottom of the 7th). If you don't sub for Astudillo, note that Gordon, Polanco, and Donaldson went down quietly in the top of the 8th, so it would have been relatively painless to switch into one of those spots defensively for the bottom of the 8th. And if we still chose not to use Maggi on defense up to this point, once Kepler reached with 2 outs in the 9th, down 4 runs against the Jays closer, with Jeffers batting, Astudillo on deck, and Gordon in the hole, it seems like we could have pinch hit with Maggi without anyone thinking our "play to win" mission was particularly compromised. Game 3: lost 5-3. Fell way behind early but we hung around this game. FWIW, Jake Cave made the last out, again vs the Jays closer -- Cave represented the tying run, although Rortvedt was on deck so a rally didn't seem super-likely. But probably the toughest of the 3 games to justify inserting Maggi.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The 40-man isn't the limiting factor here, so much as the 28-man. While some guys will undoubtedly get days off in the season's final days, I am not sure if any of those names will go on the 10-day IL to open up a 28-man roster spot for Maggi. I suppose we could do a "phantom" IL placement before the last game of the season? Looks like a few clubs may have done something like that before their final game in 2020: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/transactions/#month=9&year=2020 A few guys have options -- notably Astudillo among position players, and maybe Garza Jr., Barraclough, etc. among pitchers -- and the Saints schedule runs through Oct. 3 just like ours, although again that's a 10-day thing, unless you do it just before the last game.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    B-Ref has Berrios with a couple top 10 AL ranks in those categories, prior to 2021: 9th in wins in 2017 8th in ERA (and 9th in ERA+) in 2019 And 11th in total K's in both 2018 and 2019 too. Plus 8th in IP for both 2018 and 2019, I think that's pretty close to the characterization "routinely top 10". Keep in mind Berrios started 2017 in the minors, so 2018 was his first full MLB season.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't have a subscription either. Just gauging how useful it would be to have one! Looks like you could use it to get separate lists for each of your 3 start definitions (5-6 IP: 0 ER, 7 IP: 0-1 ER, or 8-9 IP: 0-2 ER) but you'd have to merge them and calculate the percentage of total starts on your own, I guess. https://stathead.com/baseball/game_finder.cgi?type=p
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