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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    How would you say that Quintana is a "hidden ace" but you wouldn't consider that package? If you believe that about Quintana, you'd pretty much have to consider it and quite possibly pull the trigger if the White Sox were willing. (I think the White Sox might ask for a significant 4th piece, or just use the offer to drive up bids from other clubs, but that's another issue from whether the Twins should consider it.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, a half-season into it, and Meyer has a 0.7 bWAR / 0.9 fWAR advantage. Fangraphs projects another 0.5-0.7 WAR yet this season.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Straily is obviously a modest target. But the Marlins do have a couple interesting relievers in Ramos and Phelps. A package deal might make sense.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    That offer doesn't even register for a pitcher who is better than Quintana (and such a pitcher isn't even on the market right now anyway). Gordon is a nice prospect, no doubt, but it looks like he might have a little helium right now. Gonsalves is young with nice numbers, but with his stuff he's almost universally regarded as having little chance to be an ace himself. Kirilloff is a wild card, obviously, but if he becomes anything, it seems likely to be a non-elite corner player, right? To add a guy like like Quintana -- even though he's not an ace -- for a guaranteed pennant race (2017) plus 3 more controllable seasons (2018-2020), if anything that seems light from the Twins perspective. Note that Quintana's salary is low enough to not prevent us from still making a FA splash if we choose to do so, and the 3 remaining years of control give us plenty of opportunity to recoup value either in performance or another trade (think Price getting dealt a second time).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I will take all of that as a compliment!
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    And that one repeat opening day starting shortstop? Why, Pedro Florimon, of course!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Setting aside whether 50% is the right number to choose here, if you believe Stewart has a X% chance of still becoming an impact big leaguer, then you should find X% of actual impact big leaguers somewhat followed Stewart's career path so far. But almost none have. Porcello was a low-K guy, although he debuted at 20 and wasn't really an impact player until much later, after adding strikeouts to his arsenal. Some stars were late bloomers but even they still missed more minor league bats before blooming. With Stewart's K rates, you mostly you get Nick Blackburn comps at best.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, for whatever reason, I think edits might break it. At least they did for me earlier today.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    "Copy link to Tweet" on Twitter (^ drop down menu), then just paste it on its own line in your comment here. Once submitted, the site will automatically parse it and display the tweet.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    If it was just the 9 starts this year, you could call it an adjustment period, point to the injury, etc. But he's repeating AA, and this has been his performance pattern for 4 years running now.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Stewart has 25 starts at AA, with as many walks (69) as strikeouts (70), and a 4.7 K/9. This was after 41 starts at A/A+ with below league average K rates too. (He did hit league average in 9 starts repeating A+ last year.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to rehash old debates, but I remember reading how advanced his slider was, and I remember even one prospect analyst thought Stewart would have the quickest path to the majors in that draft class. Not that he was going to rush to MLB, but I'm not sure anyone gets picked that high with the expectation that he will take exceptionally long to develop.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this is giving Stewart's most recent modest start too much weight. It's not that he hasn't kept runs off the board for multiple starts before, or even struck out 6 batters in a game before, but he generally sprinkles those games in among 1-3 K games. Until he has a run of these 6+ K starts, or a 10 K start or something, we're still at the same place with him. If the day after Ben Revere hit a minor league HR, someone said his ceiling was still 4th outfielder / fringe starter, you wouldn't say that opinion lacks credibility. Actually taking a small amount of unexceptional performance to mean anything significant in the larger picture is probably better described as lacking credibility, no?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    But if the reason other teams would trade for Santana now is because he's cheaper, doesn't that also mean the Twins would get a lower return? The question isn't, will other yes want Santana? It is, will other teams want Santana at a price that makes it worthwhile for the Twins to move him? Given the way his season has trended, and that the Twins themselves are fringe contenders this year, that seems doubtful.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco is out of options, otherwise I suspect he would have been sent down long ago.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Ask the Orioles: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/brewers-acquire-international-signing-slots-from-orioles.html
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The Phillies have a guy named Altherr. Any chance we could deal Altbrunansky for him?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's actually higher than I would have guessed, although maybe most of them are of the "going over a couple thousand dollars" variety. But if a team were to use it for more than that, since the overage is 5%, it's a greater advantage for teams with big bonus pools. The Twins this year were allowed $707k extra without losing future picks; the Cardinals had ~$108k. It's too bad there isn't a more detailed breakdown, to see what teams are exceeding it and by how much. Have the Twins gone over at all? We've had a pretty large bonus pool in 5 of 6 drafts now.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    0.69 average game-entering leverage index for Duensing, so he's still firmly in mop-up man territory.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. Gibson will probably be a decent risk for someone at $4 mil or whatever next season, but he would seem to be a far worse bet for the Twins at that figure (and perhaps more importantly, a roster spot all winter). Kinda like when Liriano signed with Pittsburgh -- solid gamble for them, but it probably would have been a stupid gamble for the Twins, since nothing had changed from when he struggled mightily here.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, not expecting them to pay it. By all accounts, they got the guys they wanted and didn't pay the tax. Good for them. But I'm not going to also give them bonus points for saving a bit on Lewis's bonus, as compared to Greene/McKay/Wright. The modest amount saved really didn't have any impact on the rest of their draft, other than avoiding the tax or maybe giving them an opportunity (ultimately unused?) to sign an extra guy after round 10. I have no quarrel with this Twins draft, but people keep trying to shoehorn it into the Correa template. This is much closer to a standard draft than that (in part by the new slot values, but also in part due to Lewis's standing among draft prospects), and there is nothing wrong with that.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the info. (Do you have a cite? Just curious, I don't doubt it's true.) I have no doubt teams prefer to avoid the tax, but that doesn't make the modest Lewis savings more significant.
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