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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Cespedes was the Tigers. (Confusing because the White Sox also have a pitcher named Fulmer!)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but that doesn't mean they are only a "tick" apart in value today. Two years from now Jimenez might be a rookie of the year candidate like Miguel Sano once was, but you wouldn't say he currently has the value Sano did then.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    But then they would be responsible for the player's salary. I limited that paragraph to guys like Milone last year, and no one was going to claim him at that price if he wasn't performing -- and if he was performing, obviously the Twins wouldn't be sending him to the minors!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    A notch? Jimenez is the #5 prospect in baseball. I think there is more than a notch between him and Javier right now. And while Romero is closer to Cease, I think it is pretty universally understood that Cease has more upside ace potential than Romero. These are important distinctions. These blockbusters aren't generally built on quantity, they are built on quality. If you can't match the quality of the top 2 pieces, you can't really match the deal.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    This is true, but also, the waiver period is actually only 72 hours for players on optional assignment to the minors, like Melotakis was. I still think that waivers might "reset" once a player is re-added to the 40-man, but it is mostly a moot point. It would really only impact a certain class of player (making a decent salary but with less than 5 years service time, like Milone last year, so they can't refuse the assignment without forfeiting their salary). And if such a player clears waivers once, he would probably be likely to clear again. So it doesn't really matter if the team can skip waivers on him the second time.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Wouldn't necessarily have to have been Gagne. Mark Portugal, Mark Davidson, Allan Anderson, Rich Yett... not to mention lower level guys like Tyler Ladendorf circa 2009...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That is incorrect. Waivers would have to be requested anew if he were added back. The waiver period only means they could have delayed outrighting him, it does not mean they get to outright him more than once.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Might be better to say "we couldn't make a comparable deal" so as not to mislead anyone.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Romero was available for both days as well. He actually started for Chattanooga the same day that Jorge made his MLB debut (July 1), and next pitched the day before Jorge's second MLB start (July 6-7). Something else made the Twins choose Jorge over Romero, and I suspect it was in part due to the innings limit. That gets complicated when you start to rely on them at the MLB level. And it will also be a factor discouraging a later call-up for Romero.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    There was never any payroll relief. While the decision to tender Santiago was ultimately up to the new FO, I highly doubt that the old FO would have nontendered him. It was strictly a move to exchange Nolasco and possibly Meyer. In that sense, by bWAR, we probably would have been better off releasing Nolasco and simply giving his starts/innings to Meyer. (Although Nolasco has been above replacement/Santiago level with the Angels so far too...)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    True, although the ones who traded him are still employed by this front office. I was always puzzled why they made this particular move after TR was sacked. It seemed akin to a salesman, given 2 weeks notice, setting up his troublesome client with another dealership, rather than giving his replacement a chance to salvage the relationship. (And the fact that he was a troublesome client was part of the reason the salesman was being let go...)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not high on Meyer long-term either, but we could have used 12 league average (and counting) starts so far in 2017. I think the poster above who said the Angels would in no way reverse this trade is on to something, even if you are pessimistic about Meyer. And if the time period of your 50-50 proposition gets pushed too far out, what are the odds that Busenitz's value is even provided for the Twins? If Meyer indeed flames out now, and Busenitz manages to exceed his value as a journeyman reliever somewhere down the line, your proposition might come true but it doesn't necessarily mean it was a good trade for the Twins.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    But you think it's 50-50 that this fringe MLB reliever will accumulate more value than 12 (and counting) starts of league average ERA/FIP in a contending season?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Romero was pulled yesterday after 5 innings and only 63 pitches, so it looks like there is some org concern about him hitting an innings limit this year. He is on track for 9-10 more starts, and was averaging about 6 IP per start during May and June. That would mean 54-60 IP, which plus his current 90 would put him at 144-150 total. But if they're leaving him in AA, there will also be playoffs. Perhaps they will try to stretch that same number of innings over 11-12 starts? I'd love to see Romero get a look in MLB this season, but I don't see them messing with a guy on an innings limit. They could have gotten his feet wet in the spot starts that went to Jorge too. I suspect Jorge got them because he's the one with a chance to finish the year here (he threw 167 IP last year).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems a little harsh, given the circumstances: https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/27/jose-quintana-white-sox-trade-rumors I would think the last 4 years of 18 bWAR would have caused you to reconsider...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, didn't mean it in a remedial sense. Meant that he's seen upper minors action last season and this season, so his relatively low regard among evaluators isn't due to lack of exposure.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    If you make that as your starting offer, though, I don't think they bother asking for significantly more. They already know what the answer will be. Gordon is a nice prospect, and he's having a nice year -- he's a respectable piece in any package. But I think the Rays, the Twins, and everyone else understands that it's not even worth discussing Archer unless you are ready to include another prospect equivalent to Gordon in value. Which the Twins don't even have, unless you want to include Lewis.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Given that Busenitz is already a fringe 40 man reliever (was Rule 5 eligible last winter but not chosen), I don't think you can use lack of MLB activity as much of an excuse.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Why? Unless you're going to add Romero-plus and/or Lewis to the mix, it's not going to get it done. What exactly would they converse about?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    No problem. I'm always looking to improve my thinking and communication skills! I think it was mainly about which is easier, looking at what a ton of Stewart comparables did going forward, or just looking backward at a much smaller set of known impact players. The latter seems like a more reasonable task to ask in this context. But yeah, the ultimate number/point is about the same.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    That package (Gordon, Gonsalves, Kirilloff) is a non-starter for Archer or Stroman. So yes, you are basically saying you won't ever entertain any major trades.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I know we see top org prospects and we think Sano, Buxton, Berrios, or even Kepler, or from the past Mauer and Morneau. But here's a list of other top 5 Twins org prospects, as graded by Sickels at B+ or better (to help weed out some of the big fish from our shallower prospect ponds) from the past 10 years: Meyer, Stewart, Hicks, Arcia, Gibson, Wimmers, Revere, Robertson, Garza, Slowey, Parmelee. Other top 5 guys who topped out at a B grade include Jay, Rosario, Hendriks, Ramos, Hunt, Morlan, Manship, and Perkins. What's the real hit rate for that group? Don't forget to discount if they took a long time getting there (i.e. Perkins, maybe Hicks). If you're non-elite and/or not particularly close to the majors, these guys aren't necessarily super-valuable. Obviously it varies by player, but I'm seeing nothing here to say the "3 of our top 5" should simply be off the table, without consideration.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You realize you are basically saying you won't even consider anything other than a minor trade, right? 3 out of an org's top 5 is pretty meaningless without context. And the context here would include a SP repeating AA but still outside of most top 100 lists (Gonsalves), and a corner outfielder selected 15th overall who has yet to play outside of rookie league ball. I get holding onto elite prospects like Buxton and Sano were, or guys who are ready for immediate MLB contribution, but I don't see much pointing in not even considering dealing other guys. (I could be swayed by the idea that Quintana is not the same quality "hidden ace" target he would have been 6 months ago. But that's about Quintana and not about "3 of our top 5 prospects")
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Quintana for a guaranteed 2017 pennant race, and then at 3/30 (the last two years being team options), covering his age 28-31 seasons, is certainly not available in free agency.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Whom do you trade Dozier for? I don't even think a Jose De Leon type would be on the table anymore. (Well, the actual injured Jose De Leon probably would be, but not a SP prospect with his offseason ranking.)
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