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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure this works? I suspect chaining only the high points of win expectancy together, while ignoring the low points, would make any random streak seem much more unlikely.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    This sounds less like the Twins should eschew shifting, matchups, and pitch selection on defense, and more like the Twins need to find ways to beat those things on offense. I doubt the Astros eschewed those things on defense, although they looked a little different due to their personnel (they have a worse/shallower pen, hence the piggybacking starters).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Hitting tanked last year too. Not as bad as this year, but only 7 runs total in 3 games. That seems to be a common theme of these exits after 2004: 2 runs in 2 games in 2020 7 runs in 3 games in 2019 4 runs in 1 game in 2017 7 runs in 3 games in 2010 6 runs in 3 games in 2009 7 runs in 3 games in 2006 That's 33 runs total in 15 games. In that span, the number of times we've scored: 1 run: 5 2 runs: 5 3 runs: 2 4 runs: 3 5+ runs: never
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Not entirely hindsight: I wonder if winning that game Sunday, and drawing the White Sox in the first round, would have been a way to break the streak. Not that the White Sox are necessarily worse than Houston (although they are less experienced), or that facing them would have been easy, but they would have been a familiar divisional foe. It would have felt less like a playoff game, and more like a few extra regular season games.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with both of those points. Like I said, I would rather have Buxton and Donaldson in the lineup than the alternatives. But I don't agree with the other poster that having them would have been a "huge help." Buxton and Donaldson had a 124 and 131 OPS+ this year, respectively. Here are the MLB qualifiers who did that: 32 Xander Bogaerts 33 Ian Happ 34 Jeff McNeil 35 Robbie Grossman 36 Jake Cronenworth 37 Donovan Solano 38 Chris Taylor 39 Kole Calhoun 40 Tommy La Stella 41 Michael Brantley 42 Mark Canha 43 Kyle Lewis 44 Alex Verdugo 45 Wilmer Flores 46 Willy Adames Some good players, some good seasons in that group, but nothing that suggests to me the difference between beating the Astros and what actually happened. Especially given Buxton's streakiness and Donaldson's age -- I suspect an experienced team in the playoffs would not use the same approach that our AL Central opponents used in pitching to Buxton earlier this season, and while still solid, Donaldson's days of putting a team on his back with exemplary performance seem like they are in the rear view mirror. Of course, it's all subjective, so I don't doubt others will disagree. But it seems too simple and rational, in the face of the irrational postseason performances we've seen from the Twins time and time again.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    The distinction between earned vs unearned runs is rarely as binary as their names suggest. Part of good pitching is leaving a literal "margin for error" and in modern MLB that generally means missing bats and limiting walks. Romo failed to miss bats, giving up contact in all five at-bats (league batting average on balls in play is around .300, so giving up contact to 5 consecutive batters could easily produce 2 hits like we saw -- even on "bloopers" which are actually pretty hard to defend, as opposed to getting batters to hit it into the ground or pop it up). And of course Romo failed to limit walks by walking the 6th guy -- a guy who finished the series 0-for-7, had a 71 OPS+ for the season, and the bases were loaded so he had no place to put him anyway. No margin for error, as it was, due to his failure to miss bats earlier in the inning. There have definitely been worse relief performances, but this was not an effective one, and was disappointing to see from the guy we trusted with the 9th inning in a tie playoff game.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    We played a below .500 team this week. And we were swept, at home, while looking completely and thoroughly lifeless. I know Marwin misplayed a ball or two at third yesterday, but I don't think it factored in any scoring. Our outfield play was fine. Nothing against Buxton and Donaldson, all things equal of course I would rather have them in the lineup than not given the alternatives. But I really doubt their presence would have made much difference vs the Astros this week. Neither is immune to slumps themselves -- notice that Buxton was 0-11 with 7 Ks in his last 11 PAs *before* the HBP vs the Reds, and Donaldson was 4-for-30 in his last two postseasons. And they and their replacements still reached base 4 times in these two Astros games. Small sample size, but after losing the White Sox series, Kepler and Rosario were actually our two most productive hitters the rest of the season -- not Buxton and Donaldson. How did that work out in the playoffs? Those two were 0-for-12. Arraez had a fantastic return vs the Reds, then was 0-for-6 against the Astros. For a normal team, with normal performances, it seems perfectly rational to consider the effects of missing players. But a team hitting .109/.246/.145 (.392 OPS) across two games, favored at home, doesn't tell me they were two bats of Buxton and Donaldson caliber short on doing meaningfully better.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Astros pulled their starters early just like us and swept us on our home field. Yankees pulled their starters early in the 2019 ALDS and swept us. The Nationals didn't pull Scherzer and Strasburg early in 2019, and the Astros/Yankees haven't pulled Cole, but those are $200-300 million pitchers. This isn't even about what philosophy best wins championships -- we can't even win a single game. Gardy had no love for spreadsheets but got us started on playoff losing streaks; meanwhile, the more-Moneyball-than-Moneyball Rays went to the WS back in 2008, swept their opponent this week (pulling their SP at 80-some pitches), and have never been swept in a postseason series. Even the Moneyball-originating Athletics -- while failing to win playoff rounds thus far (aside from sweeping us) -- generally have no trouble winning an occasional playoff game: Oakland has played 9 playoff series in the 21st century, and only been swept once. The 21st century Braves, losers of 9 consecutive playoff series, have never been swept in that streak. Besides, what does pulling your starters and inning or two early have to do with a team batting line of .109/.246/.145 (.392 OPS)? I'm not sure there is any simple explanation, unfortunately.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I wish it were that simple, but the Astros did the same thing with pulling their starting pitchers, and they swept us. Yankees did it in our ALDS last year and swept us too.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Although unlike the titular loser of that song, our Twins are exactly who they appear to be.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    With a 28 man roster, and a best of 3 series, there are undoubtedly going to be a few spots that you won’t — and shouldn’t — need, even with a well-curated roster. But yeah, like in most things the past few days, the Twins clearly didn’t help themselves with their roster decisions.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    There was some item in the media speculating that the Astros would know his stuff, but I doubted that. Alcala generally only came in when we were behind in the regular season, so I think he just deemed less essential than long relief options Dobnak and Odorizzi. (Without the runner on second extra innings rule, long relievers may have more value in the postseason.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm going to have to disagree with you there. What was our record without Buxton and Donaldson this year? Certainly not bad enough to cause two consecutive lifeless losses at home, as the favored team, with a favored starting pitching matchup. Odds are, a healthy Buxton and Donaldson would have joined the malaise; at best, they may have occasionally reached base only to be stranded by their teammates. And it's not like other clubs aren't missing players. Houston was missing Yordan Alvarez, Justin Verlander, and Roberto Osuna.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Do we really think that would matter?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm guessing the thought process is, it's safer to start Kirilloff and replace him with Cave if you need to, rather than the opposite.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he is saying, we'd have to win a postseason game vs the Red Sox to break the curse. Not sure how that curse works exactly, but I'm not an expert in curses (at least not in breaking them).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Optimism, pessimism, and indifference -- all in one post! Good work.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Bats are obviously #1 in terms of blame, but I don't think the pen would be proud of their showing here either. Duffey had 2 outs, nobody on in the 7th, then gave up 3 straight singles to tie the game -- that's not just one mistake, that's a consistent failure to miss bats and put guys away. (And was perhaps bailed out of further damage by a baserunning blunder.) Same in the 9th with Romo -- 0-2 leadoff single, followed by another single. Yes, Polanco's error hurt, but in a quality relief appearance, there is more margin for error. The box score called them all "unearned" that inning, but Polanco's error alone shouldn't lead to 3 runs.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That pitch wasn't called a strike half the time this game -- the top of the zone was very tight. And when you consider how short Altuve's strike zone is (it wasn't near the box on TV), it was clearly a ball. I don't even think Romo was mad with the umpire about it, just mad with himself. Here's the zone from yesterday: The pitch to Altuve appears in the zone here, near the top, just to the right of center -- but this is likely an error due to Altuve's short strike zone. Here's how it looked with the box on TV, and on the right for comparison is a pitch in the same relative location to Rosario in the 6th -- the only pitch at that level or higher that was called a strike, per Baseball Savant: (Sorry I didn't get the two pictures in the same scale.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    From your first sentence, it sounds like there is also a 4th area needing improvement today -- managing!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If that's what you want Astudillo to do (assuming he is even capable of flipping that switch), why not just let the scheduled batter Avila do it instead? Lefty-lefty isn't ideal, but Avila is more than capable of taking pitches, and there was only 1 out. You could even tell Avila not to be afraid to take strike 3 if necessary to avoid the DP and take your chances with Marwin.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins did have a lead when they lifted Maeda, albeit only 1-0.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Quoting myself... I know that last point seemed a little harsh -- I am sure Baldelli wasn't trying to lose the game yesterday. But while the Astudillo move was compounded by earlier Baldelli mistakes, it was still pretty questionable on its own -- heck, with one out, I'd rather send up Avila in that situation and just tell him not to swing. Avila has a good eye and the zone had been tight, so maybe he works a walk. Worst case, he strikes out looking for the 2nd out and Marwin gets a chance, representing the tying run, with Arraez and Buxton to follow if he reaches base.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I just posted in another thread how it was a little odd how Baldelli used Garver as pinch hitter on Sunday too in a similar spot -- tie game, late innings, leading off an inning vs a LHP. Jeffers was available to take both PAs (and that was when we were still ostensibly trying to win the game Sunday, before the White Sox officially lost). It seems like Baldelli is either ignoring 2020 results that he keeps relying on Garver at the plate over Jeffers, or he's just trying to give Garver reps to get his bat going -- which might be fine in a non-critical regular season game, but was decidedly not okay yesterday.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    What was weird about this game was how closely it followed the same script as our final regular season game on Sunday: - Mostly low scoring - Each SP gave up only 2 hits but 3+ walks - Twins pen gave up a run to tie the game in the 7th inning - We pinch hit with Garver to lead off an inning, late in a tie game, when we could have used Jeffers instead - Romo and Thielbar (mostly Romo) pitched in the top of the final inning, still tied, and gave up 3 runs - Twins brought the tying run to the plate in the bottom of the final inning - Baldelli pinch hit for the last batter of the game almost as if he wanted to lose (Adrianza for Arraez on Sunday, Astudillo yesterday)
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