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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    What are the odds on that "potential impact" we are acquiring? Keep in mind even if you forecast them for 2 future WAR or whatever, there is no guarantee those will come at a meaningful/valuable time either (i.e. another season below .500, or spread out such that they don't gain much trade value). The odds of a meaningful future impact from these prospects might not be all that different than 10% or whatever.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Roster Resource also says yes, Alcala will be Rule 5 eligible this winter: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ Celestino will be Rule 5 eligible the following winter (so, after 2019). Edit to add: from the other trade, the pitcher Duran is also Rule 5 eligible after next season (2019); the two outfielders after 2020.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    There does seem to be an issue with trade timing. They have all day to make trades, how do they manage to time them so they are shorthanded for a key game? Especially in the bullpen, when Rodney was gassed and we knew Lynn was starting and Belisle has been garbage vs the Red Sox. Should the team just have a AAA reliever travel with them, for the week leading up to the deadline, ready to activate at a moment's notice? I don't think there is any rule against that, maybe they can't sit in the dugout or pen while inactive.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Belisle, Twins career vs Boston, now has given up 13 runs in 4.1 innings (that's 13 outs).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    No, sorry, it was a reference to Liriano circa 2012 again.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not insisting on any single thing, just pointing out there is a lot more context than the 1-2% number that is getting thrown around. Those same projections told us to sell at the deadline last year because the Royals were the favorites at that moment. Context can matter. Down 7, but there's no one between us and Cleveland, we've got 7 games with them the next 2 weeks, and we're already 6-3 against them so far this season. 5-2 in that stretch and the lead would have been down to 4 games, with 7 weeks left, and still some more head to head. Obviously not great odds, no. But you don't always have to be the favorite to take a chance, and reasonable people can disagree about where to draw that line. (Another thing that I don't like about the odds is that they are focused on a single outcome. 10% odds to win might actually mean 20% odds to take it down to the wire, or maybe even 30-40% chance of taking it down to the last week or two, which -- not knowing the ultimate outcome at the time -- would still be very entertaining for many fans, and probably considered a rewarding experience by players and coaches. Again, obviously, a line has to be drawn and the front office is drawing it, but reasonable people can disagree.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    See the post I quoted, it was about the original Escobar trade (for Liriano). 1.4% by some projections, 9% by others (Fangraphs season to date stats mode). 12.5% by coin flip, which is not necessarily unreasonable considering it is just us vs Cleveland with a lot of head to head games remaining. I'd guess our 2012 odds were below 1% by any measure.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it helps to throw terms like "childish" around without that specific context. Could you please use the quote function if you want to respond to something like that specifically? I don't want the whole discussion framed on those terms.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The "4th place" thing is almost as important as the extra 4-5 games. In July 2012, it wouldn't have done us much good to see a team ahead of us struggle, or to beat them head-to-head, because there were two other teams that stood to be direct beneficiaries of those events too.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think SD or myself is acting in that way, and I would appreciate a more civil discussion.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    But we're talking about baseball, as fans. It is all about fun. And there's a perfectly valid, logical case that gunning for Cleveland at full strength the next two weeks is more fun than collecting more prospects. Likewise, there is a valid, logical case that we can stock some more prospects who could help down the road without significantly affecting our meager chances in 2018. I just don't like one as much, personally. The difference is inherently a matter of taste.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    No, not really. It's not a lottery where you have a fixed chance of a random drawing. We have some control too. The 12.5% chance is just an estimate, and it is prone to big fluctuations if we can perform. (We have 7 games with Cleveland the next 2 weeks)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I totally agree, but the 2012 season was toast by the deadline, if not earlier. 2018 is obviously no slam dunk, but it is much more of a gray area.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    What were the Twins playoff odds on July 31, 2012? Looks like we were 4th place, 12 games out in the division... similar deficit in the wild card race (although behind more teams, obviously). What were their odds of re-signing Liriano and actually fixing him?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Tell that to the front office. Their actions so far this season suggest they don't have much faith in the AAA relief options they have assembled.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I loved the adjective, don't hold back on more! I could get behind that this makes it easier to acquire Odorizzi or Garcia types. (Not that it's prohibitively difficult to acquire them otherwise.) But I wouldn't call those "impact" players/trades, although they might be useful at times.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Posted this elsewhere too, but Powerball odds might be overstating it? Admittedly I don't know Powerball, but our coin flip odds at Fangraphs are 12.5% right now. And we have some control. A good showing vs Cleveland at home next week, behind Berrios and Gibson, could put us in position to double those odds rather quickly.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    We've been over this. Miami could have surely dealt Realmuto by now if a package of mid-tier prospects was all it took. And if they did decide to do that in the future, they would have a dozen or more offers in addition to the Twins. There are ways to justify this Escobar trade, but it just doesn't seem right to claim that it meaningfully moves the needle on that kind of deal. Note I didn't object to Tom's original post (too much, anyway). This does give us more pieces to trade for other players. Just doubtful for "impact" trades like Realmuto.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I am sure that's based on their projections too. Where did they have Cleveland preseason? The Twins are obviously a long shot, down 7 games. But down 7 against a flawed Cleveland team and 10 head to head left, behind Berrios and Gibson... well, it doesn't feel like 1%. We've got some control here. Not a ton, down 7 games, but more than 1%.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    SD Buhr, I love this article. I just realized earlier today that the Twins were likely pushing Berrios back a day to face Cleveland, at home. That got me excited and looking for tickets. Gibson would be facing them too, and we'd be missing Kluber and Clevinger. Not looking past Boston, but I wanted to go into that series at full strength. Very different feeling now. I've spent years poring over prospect lists, I want to enjoy a wider variety of baseball fandom experiences, even if it's a long shot playoff chase.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Is Sano even ready? I thought we were supposed to trust the process on him. Plenty of room for him to come up and DH too, if he is in fact ready. (Or DH Escobar and put Sano at 3B if you want him in the field. We didn't need to unload Escobar to do something with Sano.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't get this (the playoffs part). If the Twins catch the Indians, they are probably playing pretty good baseball, I don't see why they couldn't be competitive in a short series.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Lewis quality? Not really. The poster specifically mentioned trading for impact players, adding these 3 minor leaguers doesn't really move the needle on that possibility.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Just like we're dealing from Littell, Moya, and Watson now to help in 2018! Wait...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    But what does that have to do with trading for impact players like Realmuto? That costs an impact prospect like Lewis. This trade doesn't add an impact prospect like Lewis. Are we meaningfully more likely to deal Lewis after this trade? (I hope not.)
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