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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, that makes a bit more sense!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    You might be right, although 3 K's in 12 IP this year in MLB suggests that Stewart's success so far may not be sustainable. In that case, I could see them wanting to get a look at someone else like Smeltzer instead.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I can see that. Although the timing is a little weird -- was Perez already preparing to start today? If so, does that cut into the benefits of the extra rest a bit? He pushes back his start a few days but has to double up his throw days in that case. It's also possible he wasn't preparing to start today, and they planned to start someone else, although usually they wouldn't announce Perez for the start then and would simply leave it TBA.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, good to hear that. Smeltzer could start tonight, then get sent back down after the game -- maybe for a Nelson Cruz activation, before our next game (Thursday)? Pineda would be eligible to return June 7, and we wouldn't need a 5th starter again until June 8 (although we wouldn't have needed one tonight either, if we had used Perez).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It scherly smeltz like that.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I mentioned in the other thread, but before this move, Pineda was on pace for 171.2 innings for the season, right around his career high (and way more than he's pitched the last 2 years, obviously!). Perez was on a similar near-career-high pace, since moving back into the rotation -- 193.1 innings. And Perez had a low innings year last year too, plus new mechanics/velocity this year. I wonder if they've been planning this for a few days -- Smelzter wasn't scheduled to start in AAA today, but presumably he could have already adjusted his throw day in preparation for this start.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. The rained out game last week was played the very next day, on what had been a scheduled off day. Perez started that game, and he was scheduled to start again tonight on standard rest.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Pineda was on track for 21 more starts before this DL stint. At his current IP/GS pace, he would have finished with 171.2 innings for the season. Doesn't seem like much, but in the modern era, I guess it is, and it's right around Pineda's career high too. On the other hand, not all innings are created equal, and they've been relatively conservative with Pineda's pitch counts so far, as he has yet to reach 100. Looking at his game logs, it looks like this is the longest streak of sub-100 pitch starts in his MLB career (not that he's been particularly abused in this category either).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting development. Is there something bothering Perez too, that he's suddenly pushed back 3 days? (At the last minute, no less?)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting timing on the Smeltzer side too -- his last two starts have been his worst of the year so far, with 19 baserunners (13 hits, 6 walks) allowed in 9.2 innings combined. I suppose Littell could start too. Otherwise, there weren't a lot of options at AAA. Kohl Stewart just pitched yesterday; Thorpe only has 3 days rest since his last start. Hildenberger, Romero, and Moya haven't looked ready to return.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously, Pineda just started last night, and we have off days on Wednesday and next Monday. So we don't *need* a 5th starter again until Saturday June 8th, at which point Pineda would be eligible to return from the IL. Smeltzer also hasn't pitched since May 23rd, so he could be ready for pen action immediately. Although they may prefer to see him start? He could get his feet wet with a pen appearance, and then start next week too.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick Anderson update: he's followed an impressive April with an equally unimpressive May. April: 13 G, 13 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 2 BB (both intentional?), 27 K, 2.08 ERA May: 9 G, 8.2 IP, 11 H, 10 R, 10 BB (1 intentional), 13 K, 10.38 ERA Anderson's K% was a Hader-esque 52.9% in April, but a relatively pedestrian 28.3% in May. Fellow Marlin and ex-Twin Tyler Kinley has hit a similar rough patch (7.88 ERA and 2.6 WHIP for May) and was just optioned back to the minors yesterday.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The way the ball is flying in Rochester, it might be pretty disastrous to put him there if he's not ready. (According to xFIP, his improvement this season seems to be in HR rate.) Although yes, one has to wonder if he's stagnating a bit in AA. I think he still has enough to prove that it shouldn't be an issue. And the AA club has a new manager, pitching coaches, and trainer as compared to 2018, so he's already working with some new people, even at the same level.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, but Jay's done this before too. Last year, he had a 1.59 ERA through June 4th, and even a 2.84 ERA through July 24th. But his peripherals/RA9 were less than inspiring. I'm pretty much done paying attention to him until he dominates for a bit in peripherals, or he moves up a level.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    It's a little backloaded, but the salary figure is only $35 mil AAV for 2019-2021. (The Nationals are responsible for any future signing bonus payments.) With deferrals, the present day value might even be about 10% lower. (MLB valued the original $210 mil deal at $191 mil for luxury tax purposes.) https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/ Still a lot of money, but worth it to a number of clubs (including Washington, which is why I wouldn't expect him to be traded).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, although the context of my post was that a 2.5 year contract isn't really "paying for an ace" as compared to the FA market. So we don't necessarily need to receive ace performance, or equal performance to the last 3 years, to make taking on the remaining 2.5 year deal worthwhile. The Astros didn't need Verlander to be an ace to justify their cost, for example. Although I'd guess the year 4-6 forecast is a bit better for guys that have been great over years 1-3.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Everything I've read suggests he will be an unrestricted international free agent after this 6 year contract in Japan is complete at age 25, so no posting would be required. Or are you suggesting that MLB teams will blackball him in FA at that point, so his only option will be to re-sign in Japan at age 25 and wait to be posted? That might be a stretch. I think if he's good enough, some MLB teams are going to want to add him at age 25. It won't be a mega-contract because they won't know how his performance will translate, and it could even be something short like the Mikolas contract, so he could still be a MLB FA at age 27 or so. If he's good enough, I don't see MLB teams supporting a blackball effort against Stewart because he didn't take the Braves 40% slot ($2 mil) offer, 7 years earlier. Of course, if he's not good enough, or gets hurt, it won't matter much, but he may well bank more money under this Japanese deal than he would have through re-entering the MLB draft.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's a site that says Stewart is "guaranteed close to $6 million, with performance bonuses and incentives that could triple the amount." https://usatodayhss.com/2019/scott-boras-rips-mlb-carter-stewart-skips-draft-for-japan
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite true. Jim Callis had an initial report that it was "over $4 million" too, which suggests that's could be the minimum guarantee, even if the Passan figure includes incentives or something. https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1130884119322333185
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, we don't have to play ourselves.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Ace money in average annual value, sure. But if you're trading for a guy, you're getting a significant discount in terms of years -- aces on the open market get 6-7 year guarantees, as opposed to the 2.5 years remaining on Greinke's deal.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Pro-ration would only matter for 2019 -- although even just a half-season of those two pitchers would add $35 mil to our 2019 payroll, putting us up around $155 mil. Strasburg and Scherzer are due a combined $61 mil AAV over the next 2.5-4.5 years. If Strasburg didn't opt out, we'd either have to slash significant payroll elsewhere or we'd be up over $180 mil for 2020. Even without Strasburg, Scherzer would push it to $155 mil.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not exactly true -- he's given up no earned runs in 5 of his last 7 (no runs at all in 4 of his 7). Still not sure if that's a meaningful accomplishment for a reliever. Jay hasn't pitched particularly well over that time: 7 G, 13.1 IP, 16 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 16 K, 2 HBP At least 2 baserunners in every appearance, .745 opponent OPS during this stretch, in a league with a .670 overall for the season Age 25, repeating AA... not to pick on Jay, but there's nothing to see here so far. That said, effective relievers can sometimes ascend rapidly, seemingly out of nowhere, so I'm sure Jay will continue getting chances with his pedigree. Unless someone takes him in Rule 5, he's controlled by the Twins through 2021, even without a 40-man roster spot.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    In context, I am not sure these numbers mean much. The KC metro is a million-plus less population than the Minneapolis metro, so we probably can't consider them on the same scale. Also, the 2011-2015 Twins attendance was almost certainly buoyed by the new ballpark, and the fact the team was consistently good for 10 years prior to that period (As opposed to the Royals, whose 1994-2012 era of suckiness is unmatched in Twins history.) Examples of different contexts: with a new ballpark and good teams, the 1973-1989 Royals were consistently great in attendance. Meanwhile, the Twins twice dropped out of the top 10 in AL attendance just 3 years after winning World Series titles in the Dome around that same era. Basically, I'd hesitate to pass judgment on any group of fans with this little data. (Except Yankees fans, of course -- no data required for that.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The list seems to be written from the perspective of whom the Padres might acquire. As a division rival who's more likely to hang in the race than the Giants, Arizona might find it extra hard to come to an agreement with San Diego about a non-rental asset like Greinke. Edit to add: the Padres are also on Greinke's no-trade list.
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