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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this also misinterprets much of the criticism leveled at TR and his bullpen plan. I don't think anyone denied the Twins could have a decent bullpen, whether it was the guys already on the team or a few contributors cropping up from minor league signings, etc. I think the big criticism was TR's plan made it very difficult to have a plus bullpen, which could have been an important part of our plan to contend. He was counting on a lot of iffy guys at the outset, carried over from a suspect group last year, guys would be given an ample chance to fail first before they could be replaced. Then once the reinforcements came (mostly after we were out of the race), they were guys like Abad and Kintzler, lower upside guys who could certainly have a nice run of results, but were never likely to see sustainable dominance. Indeed, our bullpen is 13th in the AL by ERA-, 12th by FIP-. Not a big deal given the other failures on our team, but hardly an asset deserving of praise for a team that was hoping to compete in modern MLB either. We were 9th and 11th in those measures last year, 8th and 11th in 2014, 6th and 7th in 2013, etc. I'm not sure that TR really addressed it particularly effectively, given our hopes of contention -- his plan was likely to produce a more or less repeat of our recent years bullpen performance, rather than an asset.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    These kind of statements seem to be getting out ahead of things. I don't think we can give credit for flipping Abad for a decent return before it actually happens, and while Palka is an interesting prospect, he might have to become more than that for the Twins to win that trade, as Herrmann has finally looked like he could hold his own with the bat in Arizona. (Perhaps Herrmann was never going to achieve that with the Twins, but that to me suggests a problem with our coaching staff rather than a guy who should have been "on his way out"). Also, while the Twins deserve some credit for signing Grossman, it appears that David Murphy deserves an assist for deciding to retire (but not before we lost John Hicks from a catching-starved organization).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I was counting them too. Berrios needs to start every 5th game beginning August 1st to get 11 more MLB starts this year. Hence why we are very near zero margin for error toward that goal. Personally, I would have preferred a little more margin for error in getting that experience for Berrios, over whatever it is they are trying to do with Nolasco or Milone...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, any individual baseball draft pick is a crap shoot. But, with the modern draft bonus pools, the top 1 or 2 teams get so much more money than even the 5th team, they can leverage them into more good picks. So it's not just the #1 pick vs the #5 pick, it's more likely a below slot #1 pick, plus an above slot second and third rounders, vs that #5 pick. Not that the Twins have yet been creative enough to try this approach...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess this was written before Thursday night's game with Boston, then?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I was wrong about 3 inning save discretion, at least in the 30-3 game back in 2007 -- the guy indeed got a save: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL200708221.shtml Of course, the score was "only" 14-3 when he came in, so...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think so. I think Ryan getting dismissed was about the larger, longer-term body of work. Someone really had to go now, and they've already turned over the last GM, the coaching staff, and the manager... Also, don't forget that TR would still be the GM today if he had been willing to have the search for his replacement going on behind him. I don't think there was anything short term that was going to save his job, or now that could bolster Antony's case for it.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps the 2016 numbers are still relative to previous year averages? I'm thinking, they must use previous year's averages in early season numbers (otherwise, how would they score plays in the first game of the season?), maybe there are still phasing them down. A rolling "last 162 games" type sample or something? And perhaps by referring to "league" they mean MLB, as opposed to AAA, Japan, etc. Not that UZR has been applied in those places, but it wouldn't surprise me if that was their goal.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair enough. But I think it matters what that trade would look like, specifically. Trading Dozier, for example, even for a good prospect, might appease some folks here at Twins Daily, but it almost certainly would not be popular among a larger group of fans, in the clubhouse, with DSP, etc. It would be bold, but I'm not seeing it helping his case. Substitute a different veteran for Dozier, and lower the prospect return accordingly, and it becomes significantly less bold, and I doubt anyone cares all that much. A modest step towards rebuilding/reloading could easily come off as the Twins being "cheap" to many folks too.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I didn't mean Milone or Palka. By "something significant for our lesser assets" I meant something like, say, Zimmer and salary relief for Ervin Santana. Hence my "miracle worker" comment -- I don't see it happening. As to the rest of your post, fairly or unfairly, I think Dozier gets more love than Span circa 2012. And we were closer to the beginning of the rebuild there, so it was understandable to trade vets for prospects, especially at an area of org need at the time. We don't really have a big area of organizational need right now, aside from catcher. Dozier for Kyle Zimmer would be seen as rather unnecessary, I think. You could substitute a better/healthier prospect for Zimmer and probably not change the equation much, and of course once the proposed prospect gets too good, we're back to my "miracle worker" comment.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That doesn't seem right. Just looking at Fangraphs league fielding totals, AL SS last year have cumulative -9.5 UZR, and NL SS last year had (you guessed it) +9.5 UZR, for a MLB total of 0 UZR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 That would suggest the average is based on MLB, rather than AL/NL. Which is logical. (To the extent that league matters, more pitchers bat in the NL, but that should already be accounted for in the type and location of their batted balls.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    You think if Antony trades Dozier for Kyle Zimmer, he will get the permanent job? I don't get it. Dozier seems to be a favorite of management and fans, and is productive, and Zimmer is far from a sure thing and would enter a rather crowded field of AA SP prospects. (Also, Zimmer has been hurt much of the year, and is set to undergo thoratic outlet surgery now.) Such a trade would get blasted by media and fans ("they're still cheap", "here we go again with rebuilding..."), and possibly other Twins players too. And for pretty good reason -- Dozier is productive and earning his salary, and Zimmer is far from a sure thing and enters a crowded field of AA level SP prospects. I think it would more likely hurt Antony's chances (not to mention, it would be helping a division rival for this and future years). I'd guess that Antony would have to get something significant for our lesser assets (Santana, Milone, Abad, etc.) to help his case much, although I'm under no delusions that anyone is that kind of miracle worker.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not a whole lot of time left anymore. They pretty much have to have Berrios up by August 1st to reach 15 MLB starts in 2016, and that's assuming he starts every 5th game thereafter -- no injuries, extra rest, etc.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    That would reduce an already suspect sample size significantly. And if they are using existing published stats, those are already scaled to MLB average, so it would take some work to adjust them for AL and NL, no? I can't imagine they do that. The top score in each league should still be the same winners regardless if it is compared to a baseline of MLB or league.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I have to imagine they are being compared to MLB average. Could be most of the above average shortstops are in the NL right now.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    It happens more often than ypu think. The Brewers hired their GM away from the Astros during last season, for example. They can probably do interviews now, and by September most candidates would probably be free to leave their former teams. Waiting until October to even start the process would seriously jeopardize your offseason, I think you would want to avoid that if at all possible. It is a little more important than a managerial hire.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Waiting that long might curtail the effectiveness of your search, though.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It seems a lot of the pro/neutral opinions on Antony are pushback against a perceived "Antony is an idiot" sentiment, based primarily on the 2010 interview and later Bartlett fiasco. On that point, the pushback is fair -- I don't believe Antony is an idiot, just like Bill Smith wasn't an idiot. However, "not being an idiot" doesn't really count as a qualification for MLB GM. In fact, if Antony's biggest selling points are being well-respected, "not being an idiot", and an existing familiarity with our players and organization, why wouldn't you just retain TR? He has all that and more.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Nobody thinks that short term, where they are going to give up something of value (money or prospects) for Nolasco or Milone at this point based on 2 starts.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for sharing, Parker. I'd say that "educating himself" after that interview, in some way, would probably be the bare minimum expectation for an employee in his position. I don't think that alone is really a "plus" in his "potential GM" ledger. Would have been nice for him to learn the RBI/SLG lesson on his own in the first two years of the Delmon Young era. And, even assuming he "educated himself", did it make much difference? How has he applied those lessons learned since? Did he lobby to trade Delmon Young after 2010? His statements on Nishioka vs Hardy after 2010 suggest there were still a lot of concepts he wasn't familiar with... he didn't learn much about resisting Gardy's requests from 2011 (Nishioka) to 2014 (Bartlett) either...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Once the minor league season is done, there is nowhere for these guys to play until the AFL in October. Even if it's to ride the pine and get 1 start a week, they might as well be doing it in MLB instead of sitting at home. Furthermore, Grossman won't need the September at-bats all that much, and Santana may have already cemented his offseason status by then. So the 4th outfielder spot could be open for auditions. And Mauer absolutely doesn't need to play every day at 1B, if that can open an opportunity for Palka (although Park might take those at-bats too). There are likely to be injuries between now and the end of the season too. I'd probably rather see these new guys fill in rather than Grossman and Santana.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    He contributes enough to be playing every day? At the expense of Rosario, Escobar, Vargas, or even Polanco in a lost season? (Not directly, but guys could easily be shuffled into Mauer's 1B/DH spot more often to get guys in the lineup at other positions too.) If Vargas, or Arcia, or Parmelee, or whoever was putting up Mauer's 99 wRC+ for 2.5 years now and still playing virtually every day, blocking opportunities for younger potentially better players in a season where marginal wins clearly didn't matter, it would be a situation worthy of criticism. I don't see why Mauer is above that.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    If Granite needs to be added to the 40 man, they might as well call him up for September (or earlier if there are any injuries). 7.5% K rate this year, 34 steals -- he could be a Ben Revere type -- not great, but has value at minimal salary, and would be a potential Rule 5 pick for someone too.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    This probably overstates Mauer's current ability to get on base. He had an obscene 18.9% walk rate in April. It has been 12% since May 1st, exactly in line with his career average. Given how his batting average has stabilized around .270 over the past 3 years, his final 2016 and true talent OBP is probably closer to .350, which would be 27th in the American League right now. Solid, but not necessarily that special. Also, the 2016 AL OBP leaderboard seems to be flukily sparse at the top. Mauer's .370 OBP only ranks 24th in MLB right now. Looking at past seasons, it would have only ranked 13th in the AL at the all-star break in 2015, 12th in 2014, 13th in 2013, etc. Still good, but not quite as good/elite as his "7th in the 2016 AL" rank suggests.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, not nice enough for a starting every day in a lost season. His high OBP will still be available to us in 2017 even if we park it on the bench a bit more in 2016.
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