Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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That's fair -- but is Lewis, Graterol, and Gordon really "looting the farm"? Especially if there's no better asset available right now for that price? I mean, it's moot because I highly doubt he's actually available, but if he was, I think you'd really have to consider that deal. Yes, I would prefer Kershaw, or Sale, or Scherzer -- but they're not available. Greinke might be a long-shot, I'm not sure we can wait and hope for him. One would assume Syndergaard would be available at that price, if the Mets were selling, so I guess he'd be a more logical target. Although I could also see a situation where your talent evaluators like deGrom more than Syndergaard at the present time too (might also be the reason the Mets extended deGrom while being willing to deal Syndergaard).
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Other than Harvey, who does this really describe? I'm not sure the careers of Niese or Pelfrey suggest pitcher abuse. Some guys are just mediocre through age 30 and then disappear. What team had a lot of SP that you heard about a lot after they left? The Twins certainly haven't... if you keep a SP until they're near 30, odds are they won't do much after they leave. Did the Rays abuse Archer, Moore, Cobb, and Hellickson? (But not abuse Price?)
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Let's Make A Deal, Part II: Payroll
Otto von Ballpark replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Rosario is a solid player, but it looks like he is reaching a plateau as a 116 OPS+, 3.5 WAR type corner outfielder. Still plenty useful at arb prices for age 28-29, but I'd hesitate to extend for age 30+ without a significant discount. -
Let's Make A Deal, Part II: Payroll
Otto von Ballpark replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't know how much stock I'd put in such small splits, but Stroman has actually done just fine vs the Yankees overall (4.23 ERA in 17 starts, versus a career ERA of 3.82). I guess you could look at his 6.13 ERA in 10 starts in Yankee Stadium as a problem, but it also suggests he's been pretty good against the Yankees at home. Unless it's the wild card game in NY, I suppose you could start him at home. (FWIW, his worst year vs the Yankees was also his worst year overall, 2018.) Stroman has been solid in/vs. Boston and Houston too. -
Looking at Syndergaard's full-ish seasons by FIP-: 84, 57, 70, 85 His K% has actually declined every year since his second season, to where it's now just a tick better than league average. And he only has one year with ERA qualifier innings so far (at 185) -- he's on pace for a new career high of about 201 IP this year. I'd still like to acquire him, but on the question of him vs. deGrom, they're still pretty close from my vantage point, even after accounting for the differences in salary and age.
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And I know it's a really small sample against different mixes of competition, but Sale has yet to differentiate himself from deGrom in his postseason pitching either: deGrom: 25 IP, 77 ERA-, 73 FIP-, 85 xFIP- Sale: 25 IP, 127 ERA-, 96 FIP-, 71 xFIP-
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I hear you, but I think WAR (a counting stat) might be exaggerating the difference, especially looking forward. Here they are by a rate stat, FIP- (FIP adjusted for park and league), since 2014 (the start of deGrom's career): deGrom: 72, 70, 82, 82, 49, 72 Sale: 66, 66, 81, 56, 48, 71 Advantage Sale, but the "stability" you mention is basically exchanging one extra excellent 56 FIP- season for one still good 82 FIP- season out of those 6. Otherwise, they each have one excellent season, one still good season, and Sale is basically 66-71 and deGrom 70-72 over the remaining 3. (Sale's two earlier 76 FIP- seasons as a starter would further suggest he's closer to deGrom than you might think.) This surprised me, as before I researched this I would have assumed the gap would be larger than that. And in terms of workload, Sale had an advantage in starting his career earlier and "earning" a larger workload earlier. deGrom actually has more IP and IP/GS over the last 3 years so I suspect that part might be equalized going forward. (Add to it that Sale already had a shoulder scare late last season.) I mean, I agree that I'd prefer Sale if they are both available to me at equal cost, but they are close enough from my vantage point that I'm not sure I could ever turn down deGrom just because he's "not Sale" and Sale isn't actually available to me.
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What's "a lot"? If you check my link upthread, the RF scoreboard is less than 20% of their investment, and it is also 8-9 years old now. (And the Twins later got an equal amount from the public for their "Bat & Barrel" restaurant project anyway) What CF stuff isn't revenue generating? They have re-done the batter's eye a few times, but I consider the cumulative effect on the fan experience as pretty much neutral. Same with the RF bleacher area. They've done very little for families at the stadium -- not to argue for or against that, but it seems pretty representative of how they feel about non-revenue TF improvements.
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Yes, that was the sentiment at the time. Although even Pelfrey wasn't much of a prospect any more -- he lost his prospect eligibility in 2007 with the Mets and was pretty lousy in both results and peripherals at AAA and MLB that season. But it turns out the Mets could have thrown in their top prospect Fernando Martinez and it wouldn't have made any difference either!
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Syndergaard is not a rental. He is controlled for 2.5 seasons, though 2021.
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FWIW, in case anyone reads this and gets the wrong idea, it should be noted that bWAR aka rWAR has adjustments for park and even defense -- they just don't base it on FIP like fWAR so it comes out a little different. But you have to admit, deGrom comes out pretty close even by fWAR. As my post shows, age 26-30, deGrom compares favorably with Scherzer and Greinke in fWAR at the same ages, and is only ~12% behind Sale. Per 30 starts, that difference is like 5.2 fWAR for deGrom vs 5.8 fWAR for Sale. Using Kershaw as the threshold for "ace" might be a little too strict. Especially if you ever have any hope of getting an ace via FA or trade. (That said, I think the tangent is moot because I don't believe deGrom would be on the trade block. Hypothetically, though, if he was, I could see an argument for paying a big price in trade for him.)
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Nothing illogical in that at all. Spending millions to add a bar, which is virtually guaranteed to generate $X range of profit, is a very, very different decision than adding player payroll (which has a much more murky path to return on investment -- in some ways, it's more akin to buying a lotto ticket or gambling). That said, if you want to specifically say 5%, I think they can do that -- that would only be about $6 mil more for us this year, which could mean Bumgarner plus a modest reliever salary, and would put us close to last year's payroll.
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Would you prefer, "pitchers can influence the occurrence of passed balls"? As I said, I didn't see the game, I don't know how this particular one happened.
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Yes, I know. My point was they could leave a spot open on the 40-man for a potential 4th catcher in the near future, but even if they don't (and the 40-man fills back up), they would have the ability to 60-day DL Astudillo to get a 4th catcher on the roster. That would make Astudillo eligible to return in late August.
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Good catch! I should have remembered that. I suppose they could add Allen, Stashak, and 2 guys by trade in the near future, to be back to 40. Then the 60-day DL could be back in play.
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Actually they went with "Redlegs" in the 1950s due to anticommunist sentiment: https://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/56756/tbt-when-the-reds-became-redlegs
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Yup. Even if you satisfy the Diamondbacks demands, Greinke can put the brakes on the whole thing. (And there's not even an obvious enticement that the Twins could offer, other than more money. Might be hard to sell the Twins as his best shot at a title now either, especially if someone like Atlanta got involved -- and Atlanta isn't on his no-trade list...)
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Gave you a miGRAINe?
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Got it. I don't know -- I think their spending on the ballpark is about what I would expect, even if it mostly to boost their own revenue. (And their spending on the team is about what I'd expect too, although I hope to see an aggressive push to the upper bounds of payroll now given our current position!)
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The Astros? They are $17 mil under the first luxury tax threshold (which isn't that bad, actually -- just a tax on the overage). And something like $52 mil under the third and highest threshold (the one where your draft slot moves down). The Astros are also not included on Greinke's 15 team no-trade list (while the Twins are). I wouldn't expect Houston to pursue him, but then again, I wouldn't expect anyone will ultimately give the Diamondbacks enough talent and take on enough of the contract to convince them to make a deal.
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As opposed to sexy on the front of a baseball card:
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If this is directed at me, I know that. But with Astudillo unavailable, if Castro or Garver get hurt at all, they will need to be ready to immediately add another catcher, requiring a 40-man spot. (Perhaps I should have said "fourth catcher") I suppose they could 60-day DL Astudillo if they need another catcher and they don't expect/need Astudillo to return until the end of August.
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Stewart's line at AAA since the beginning of June: 6 GS, 25 IP, 39 H, 36 R, 30 ER, 16 BB, 22 K, 2 HBP (edit to add: 10.80 ERA, 12.96 RA9 -- only a 6.65 FIP, though!) I think the role change is due. (And some here were suggesting he could be exchanged in trade for Will Smith right now!) Somewhat inexplicably, Stewart also has 2 appearances with 5.1 shutout innings in MLB during that time, allowing only 2 hits and zero walks (but also only 1 K). Neither appearance involved much leverage, though, or particularly strong opponents (4 innings vs KC).
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Trade and/or Cody Allen (and/or Cody Stashak?). With Astudillo still sidelined, they may want to keep a spot open in case they need to add a fourth catcher too. (Edited to say "fourth catcher")
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I think the heat is supposed to break in Minneapolis after Friday.
