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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like Happ to the Yankees, which probably means no Gibson for them unless they want to get creative and dump Sonny Gray.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I referenced "total price", not AAV. I think there's a very real chance that Escobar and perhaps even Dozier are available for 2 or even 3 years around $20 mil total. A QO passes that up. I guess not offering the QO increases the risk of potentially losing the player, but neither guy seems irreplaceable. There's quite a few infielders on the market this winter, and likely only Machado commanding big bucks.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems unlikely, for any of the Twins trade assets. I did some research, and if one believed Gibson's next year-plus performance would be similar to his last calendar year performance, you could perhaps justify Sheffield. But Gibson is no sure thing, and Sheffield is on the doorstep of MLB and could just as well be promoted himself. Unless the Yankees are just really pessimistic about Sheffield, I'd guess they acquire whatever their lower / further away prospects can get them.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    In some contexts, sure. In this context? A qualifying offer likely precludes the possibility of getting multiple years for a similar total price, which is a very real possibility judging by the recent market. You'd also be making it that much more difficult to trade the players in 2019, should the need arise. It definitely seems much riskier to offer the QO than to not.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking it up, I see Walker reached 9.1% BB rate in AA, and it improved every year up to that point. Like Rooker, it also improved during the course of his AA season (11.2% from July onwards that year, although the rest of his production cratered). I think that's when I heard the theory around here, that his increase in walks / decent walk rate offset some of the strikeouts. And maybe it did, but not enough to matter. I admitted Walker was more extreme, and I only brought him up as a general example off the top of my head. You can find others who would be more "apples to apples" for Rooker's AA rates pretty easily. Rooker is at 8.2% BB rate, 28.7% K rate, and a 133 wRC+ this season. Since June 1st, 11.1% BB and 28.2% K. Checking out other age 23 AA players for similar rates from 2015: Drew Robinson, 16% BB, 26.8% K, 127 wRC+ Will Swanner, 10.8% BB%, 30.8% K, 132 wRC+ Never heard of these guys. From 2016: Matt Chapman, 11.7% BB, 29.2% K, 141 wRC+ J.D. Davis, 8.3% BB, 26.5% K, 134 wRC+ Bradley Zimmer, 13.8% BB, 28.3% K, 136 wRC+ All of these guys need gloves to have much MLB value (and Chapman's got the most value because he dropped his K rate to 23.2% and paired it with a brilliant glove, per metrics). Drop it to age 22, and we add Derek Fisher, Ryan O'Hearn, and Paul DeJong from 2016. Again, 2 guys that probably need their gloves to have good MLB value, and O'Hearn whose bat cratered at AAA but it probably only cost him a "quad-A" career. Jumping back to 2014, we get Michael A. Taylor, maybe Kyle Kubitza, Stetson Allie, and Rymer Liriano if you reach down to 24-25% K rates. I'm not trying to "complain", he's doing great for his team, but that doesn't mean a whole lot about his future for the Twins, which is the big criteria for promotion right now (and how this whole discussion got started).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    So what's the theory -- that sometimes Belisle just forgets to "pitch strategically"? Or doesn't always have the stuff to execute it? Because we sure haven't trusted him to do this very often (if at all) so far in 2018.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Why promote him at 28%, when you need him to get it down to 25%?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    More extreme, but I remember hearing "ratio" defenses of Adam Brett Walker too. I don't think BB% is particularly meaningful at that level when you are whiffing that much. I suspect he is getting pitched around like he wouldn't in MLB (and the walk rate increasing as his bat heats up seems to align with that). I am not dismissing Rooker, but I think he needs K% improvement at these levels to become an impact player in MLB. I suspect that's why he hasn't gotten a promotion yet.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Still a 28.2% K rate in that time, though.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Erv is that likely to be claimed, especially if he shows any rust his first 2 starts back. (They can put him waivers as soon as August 1st.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    There is still plenty of time for September ticket prices to drop enough so even a minor league salary can afford them.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    We lost 2 games on Cleveland over the weekend during the KC sweep -- but now we've gained 2 over the next two games. So we're back where we were at the all-star break (7.5 back), just with 5 fewer games left...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    A biiiiiiig lunch! Mofongo, wasakaka con questo frito... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luWBghJpx9I
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Rimmel, The Desert Fox?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, Belisle's inherited runners have been in low leverage. He's only seen 1 inherited runner with less than a 3 run lead/deficit. His average game-entering leverage index for the Twins this year is .32. That's not a role which Belisle has carved out, it's just where you stash your clear mop-up guys. He has zero high leverage appearances, 2 medium leverage, and a whopping 13 low leverage. By comparison, Hildeberger and Duke have 1.26 and 1.23 leverage index, 17 and 18 high leverage, and even 14 and 7 medium leverage appearances, respectively. They've entered 17 tie games between them; Belisle zero. They are far more likely to be pitching in competitive games, against competitive teams/lineups. Belisle has been far more likely to pitch against teams that have given up -- yeah, the bases were loaded last night, but the Jays trailed by 7 with 11 outs remaining. They let their #9 hitting backup catcher stay in the game to hit in that situation against Belisle, if that gives you an idea about how competitive they were being.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    It's a natural pairing, since I think "Lance Lynn" sounds like two first names, and "Logan Morrison" sounds like two last names. Maybe they should swap names? Lance Logan and Lynn Morrison, the craziest MLB trade since Fritz Peterson and Mike Kekich! Couldn't hurt.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Zander Wiel, stats-wise, is reminding me of Vargas at A+ and AA. Of course, Vargas was a little younger, and got protected on the 40-man after his A+ season. Wiel is Rule 5 eligible this winter. At this point, I am guessing they let him finish at AA, leave him unprotected, and hope he can show more power next year at AAA before they add him. Hoping for development like Jesus Aguilar?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Or cheeseburgers? https://sports.theonion.com/c-c-sabathia-prince-fielder-keep-imagining-each-other-1819569949
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, that's not what their methodology means. It's a rough estimate of what dollars per win can cost on the open market, usually around the top of the market. For Escobar, if he'd even qualify for such analysis, you'd want to look at his projections for next year (likely well less than 3-4 WAR) and beyond. And like I showed above, there might be a lot of infield options, and not every team is interested in paying that dollar per win figure either, at least not for every position or acquisition. I enjoy Fangraphs a ton, but I pretty much ignore that "Dollars" column. And in their defense, it's pretty well buried -- it's not in the Dashboard on the player or leader pages, so they're not really promoting any kind of universal application of it. They generally only bring it up in articles when trying to peg the value of the top free agents or trade targets, not for every player that hits FA.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    3/45 for Escobar does seem unrealistic, especially with a QO attached. Even with his career year this year, he's only on pace for 3.7 WAR. He was at roughly 1.5 WAR in 2017, and at or below replacement in 2016. The last time Escobar played significant innings at SS was 2016, and he had negative DRS/UZR. He's never played significant innings at 2B. So he's likely getting signed as either a utility player, in which case he's getting nothing close to $45 mil, or as a third baseman. How did third basemen fare last winter? - Moustakas (the only one with a QO attached) got 1/6.5, averaged 3.2 WAR per 600 PA the previous 3 seasons - Frazier got 2/17, averaged 3.4 WAR the previous 6 seasons - Cozart got 3/38 to convert to 3B, coming off 5 WAR the previous year and average 4 WAR per 600 PA the previous 3 seasons (and I bet the Angels regretted this contract before the offseason was over too) - Nunez was a utility guy who predominantly played 3B the last 2 seasons, and he only got 2/8. You can make a case that Escobar is better / more flexible than any of those 4, and still fall well short of 3/45, especially with a QO attached. Plus, that was a relatively light supply in the market. The market for 3B this winter could include Machado, Moustakas again, Donaldson, Beltre, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, and Freese or Kang (both have club options). If you expand Escobar's market to the other infield spots, he'd still be competing with a couple of those guys plus Dozier, Murphy, Kinsler, LeMahieu, Descalso, Hechavarria, and Iglesias. Given all that, I'd say it is very unlikely that Escobar turns down a 1/18 deal. Even if he thinks he might get 2/25 or 3/30, I think he would try to use the 1/18 as leverage to get an extra year or two from the Twins, rather than try to get that on the open market with a QO attached. (And the upside for the Twins, in the unlikely event that Escobar did reject the QO, is not that high -- higher than #95 we forfeited for Lynn, but only like 75-80, the same range of pick we traded with Hughes.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. Vasquez is Rule 5 eligible this winter if we don't add him to the roster, so he might get the call in September like Moya did last year.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I was right! https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/1020770786783694848?s=20
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    For that price, maybe the Twins should have been buyers. At least for the next 10 days or so. Worst case, you drop further back and flip him like Jaime Garcia.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier's chances at a $50 mil deal are not great, but possible. Escobar's chance is virtually zero. If Escobar turns down the QO, he instantly loses ~$4-5 mil from his bargaining position with other teams. His track record doesn't warrant a QO either -- keep in mind this is the first season of his career where he's been meaningfully above average with the bat. I think he takes it, if offered. Absent the qualifying offer, he probably gets contract offers like 2/20 or 3/24, either of which would be preferable for the Twins compared to a 1/18 deal (which would not only be an overpay for 2019, but it would basically make him untradeable unless we ate a lot of cash).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Escobar would have to sign a $50+ mil FA deal to get a comp pick in the 30-40 range. Otherwise it would be in 70-80 range, like the pick we sold to San Diego. But of course, the far more likely outcome of a QO is you would get him on a 1/18 contract and no comp pick.
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