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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Just to be clear, I think I endorse this trade. I haven't been quite as high on Graterol's future value as some, and I recognize the value of Maeda's contract. It seems like a fair deal. FWIW, baseballtradevalues.com is a little more pessimistic. They forecast 12.2 median future value for Maeda, as compared to 21.1 for Graterol.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I agree he's not a #5 starter. And Graterol might be a fair price for him, on this contract. One more note on Wheeler vs. Maeda -- Fangraphs currently projects Wheeler with a 1.5 WAR advantage for 2020, or 1.0 WAR if you prorate Maeda's innings (although prorating may not be fair to Wheeler, as Maeda has never thrown that many innings since he left Japan). If you use the common estimate of $8 mil per WAR on the open market, one could expect Wheeler to be worth ~$12 mil more per season than Maeda. And indeed, he's making $23.6 mil per season, and Maeda would make $10.65 mil if he hits those incentives. (Of course, there's benefit to the incentive structure vs a full guarantee, but there's also the cost of Graterol to factor in too.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    With Maeda's unique contract, I could actually see TR making this move, under these conditions. But the opportunity never really presented itself (contending team, prospect equivalent to Graterol, and perhaps most of all, Maeda's contract).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    None of those numbers are adjusted. The Mets had pretty horrific defense last year -- as an illustration, B-Ref says an average pitcher, pitching in the same conditions as Wheeler (park/opponents/defense), would have had a 5.08 RA9 last year; Maeda, only 4.12. That's a pretty massive difference, if true! Thus, both bWAR and fWAR give Wheeler a significant edge on Maeda, about 1.5-2 WAR, even after prorating Maeda's innings. Also, $3 mil is only Maeda's base salary. He's likely to earn more in incentives, especially as a full-time starter -- still less than Wheeler, of course, but it closes the gap a little. The value of Graterol closes the gap a little further too. (And Maeda is 2+ years older than Wheeler, so his future projections are likely a little worse.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not so sure -- that would surely have invited a grievance. The Dodgers first shifted Maeda to the pen in June 2017, after he had a stint on the IL and a bad start to the season -- 5.21 ERA at that point. He improved over the next few months, but sputtered in August/September again and finished with a 4.22 ERA, which ranked last among the top 7 Dodgers by games started that season. Pretty clearly justified moving him to the pen. More of the same in 2018 -- 3.80 ERA when he shifted to the pen on August 10th, again ranking last among Dodgers top 7 starters. And in 2019 -- 4.11 ERA on August 28th, ranking last among the Dodgers top 9 starters. And in terms of financial impact, his incentives wouldn't have made much difference in 2017 because they were so far over the top luxury tax threshold. Would have been closer in 2018 and 2019 but I'm not quite sure if they would have had luxury tax implications (Maeda missed time both seasons anyway on the IL and the paternity list).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That's interesting. Walker was at 93.3 MPH in his appearance at the end of the season.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say it was great. And the plan was likely for him to exit early anyway -- he hadn't thrown a pitch in an actual game (majors or minors) in 533 days. It's not like Arizona pulled him because they couldn't possibly let him face the Padres 5-7 batters, with nothing on the line. I appreciate if you actually watched it, but it's also a sample size of 3 batted balls. How much do you want to read into 3 batted balls (2 of which went for outs) for a pitcher who hadn't thrown in a game in 533 days?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    There are different ways to measure performance, and I wouldn't expect them all to be equal. So you just object to them having the same name? I use fWAR or bWAR to denote them, at least when there's a notable difference.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Walker won't be "pressed to pitch a lot of innings" anywhere he goes. But he probably wants to be able to pitch as many innings as he needs, even if he struggles, more than he wants run support (which likely won't matter when teams are evaluating him next offseason).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably would have already leaked, if that was the case. Hill can go on the 60-day IL in a week. It took 9 days for the Donaldson deal to be official.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair for the team, but maybe not the player. Chacin just needed a job to extend his career after a poor 2019. Walker needs a place where he can get ample opportunity to re-establish himself in 2020. That might wind up being a minor league deal with incentives, but it may also wind up on a team that can afford to give Walker a longer leash.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    "Barely able to get through that single inning"? Groundout, double, flyball, strikeout. 15 pitches, 11 strikes. Seems like a normal inning to me? Obviously teams want to know where he's at right now, but sometimes injuries are just timed poorly. Walker had the misfortune of having TJ surgery in April 2018, which automatically meant he was going to miss more season time than most other pitchers who had the same surgery. Then he had a setback during his rehab, which isn't unusual and kept him out longer. The fact that he returned, even for a single inning, is encouraging that the shoulder setback wasn't *too* serious. Walker's actual time missed between MLB appearances was 533 days, compared to 634 days for Pineda. But because of the timing, Walker effectively missed 2 full seasons, versus only 1.5 seasons for Pineda.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    But Miranda has been the opposite of Arraez to date, in terms of actually getting hits when he puts the ball in play (BABIP). .255 at A+, vs .358 at the same level and age for Arraez. Career minor league BABIP marks are .271 for Miranda, and .358 for Arraez. Thus, despite having similar K% and BB% and better power (ISO), Miranda trails Arraez considerably in total offensive production: 104 wRC+ for his minor league career, vs 134 for Arraez. Miranda is still young, but it looks like he's going to have to make considerable changes to his offensive game beyond just adjusting to new levels.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    And not only have rosters expanded to 26, but it sounds like the number of pitchers will be capped at 13. So we essentially have an extra bench spot over much of last season. I see our bench right now as the following: Avila Marwin Cave Adrianza Assuming a healthy starting 9, there's no significant playing time available for Rooker, Wade, Larnach, etc. anyway, regardless of whether Marwin is around. (And if someone gets hurt and goes on the IL, that will open a spot and playing time regardless of Marwin too.) Plus Cave still has an option year, so we can temporarily swap him out for Astudillo or Gordon if, say, the outfield is 100% but a catcher or infielder is day-to-day. And we can obviously re-evaluate midseason -- if Marwin is tradable by then, and if a prospect is fully healthy and knocking on the door, we can make a move. But right now, not so much.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Marwin is particularly tradable right now -- he's probably not quite good enough / cheap enough for teams to overlook the scandal cloud. But he's not nearly bad enough or controversial enough for the Twins to cut him either. So yes, he is a lock to make the roster.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Veterans usually aren't asked to "build up" innings gradually as much as younger prospects. Pineda went from 12 innings in 2018 (rehab) to 146 in 2019 (and would have been asked for more, had he not been suspended). Walker has missed most of 2 seasons now, but other starters have done that before. Heaney and Richards for the Angels recently, etc. No guarantee Walker will stay healthy and effective for the whole season, of course, but if he's healthy enough to pitch, he won't be held back, especially if he's only on a one-year contract. (If he misses some spring training, he could start the year on a rehab assignment.) Edit to add: now if he's not healthy enough to pitch, that's a different story. But that's a separate matter from "building up innings".
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Nola and Severino were the two comps last offseason. But Berrios was a year behind them in service time, so it's possible the Twins were hoping for a bigger discount in whatever offer they made last winter. (Maybe something more like a Polanco or Kepler type deal?) I would expect a Nola and Severino type offer this winter, but maybe Berrios wants more? I hope the Twins still think he is worth it!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Cooper, Miles Mikolas did not have 4 years of team control remaining. His original 2 year contract with the Cardinals, after returning from Japan, would have made him a free agent again after 2019 (essentially counting his service time earned in Japan). https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2018/9/12/17848144/do-the-cardinals-need-to-make-a-decision-on-miles-mikolas Here’s the skinny on Mikolas’s contract situation: he signed a two-year contract this past offseason, worth $15.5 million total. The money is an even split; he’ll make the same $7.8 in 2019 that he made this year. There was language put into the contract that makes Mikolas a free agent following the 2019 season; due to his low amount of service the first time around in MLB, he’s not actually reached the service time milestone necessary to avoid the arbitration system, and thus it had to be put into the contract. But since there’s been some confusion over the course of the season, I figured it was important to spell out here that yes, Miles Mikolas will be a free agent after the 2019 season.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. By wRC+, Marwin was also at 93. Here are the league-wide wRC+ figures by position: 3B: 107 1B: 108 LF: 105 RF: 108 DH: 104 SS is a little closer, at 100. So unless Marwin plays CF (95), 2B (92), or catcher (85), yeah, he's probably a clear step below a league-average hitter for his position. It's not a huge step below, though -- by WAR, adding in defense and adjusting for position, he was still basically an average starter (roughly ~2 WAR for a full season), as he has been pretty much every season since 2014.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Alternative history: if Johan becomes a free agent after 2008, it's possible that the Yankees sign him instead of CC Sabathia (Johan was arguably better, and only ~16 months older). And Johan would have missed at least the 2010 postseason, and possibly the 2009 postseason too (he finished both seasons injured for the Mets), which could have benefitted the Twins in a postseason matchup. Or maybe the Yankees sign both. The luxury tax was still just a cash tax back then, with no draft or international penalties (and no draft or international spending limits at the time either). Obviously no way to know or predict Johan's precise injuries at the time, but an interesting "what if" scenario...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    They didn't have to do better with the draft picks to make that a better alternative to trading him. Before they even got the picks, they would have received a 7 WAR ace SP season for a paltry $13.25 mil salary, in a year we received sub-replacement level performance from our opening day stater and missed the playoffs by a single game, in the prime of Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, etc. We would have even avoided the Yankees that postseason (they finished 6 games out of the wild card in 2008). They could have bombed both extra draft picks in 2009 and still come out ahead of what they got by trading him. (Although with one of the picks at #24 or perhaps higher, and the other around #39, I won't claim #25 pick Trout, but it's a reasonable possibility that we could have added another future contributor on the level or Gibson or Grichuk, even with our draft record at the time.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, to the extent they measure the same thing, they do so in different ways. Just like batting average and on-base percentage both measure a player's offensive performance, but in different ways.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins were 16th in those "power rankings" a year ago. How much stock did you put in that? https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe this is the true curse affecting our Twins in the 21st century, rather than those of Mike Trombley or Big Papi?
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