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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't say I am not including this factor. They absolutely can and should work with him this offseason. I just don't know if it makes a difference whether that offseason is 5 months long or 4 months long.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That is not much of a concern with Rosario out. Even when he is back, I think you know what you have in him, he can get some days off or at DH. Kepler can DH too. Or Buxton could, frankly, if you just want to see his bat.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I was mostly needling you about not seeing it, that is all. I understand you are not convinced, although the rest of your post didn't really explain why, hence why I didn't include it in the quote. There does seem to be a contradiction in this take. If at bats this month aren't critical, as you say, then what is your confidence level going into 2019? Must be pretty low, in which case, how valuable is that month next year? (It might actually have negative value if he starts slow out of spring training yet again.) And I know you frequently warn of small samples sizes, and that can be warranted. September 2018 would be a small sample for Buxton and probably wouldn't mean much in the larger picture. But you can't get a larger sample without first accumulating some smaller samples too. Given where he is at, I would rather have +1 month recent data for him at any given point in the near future. (And of course, Buxton's performance issues this year are largely based on a small sample too, his 94 PA in MLB this year. His AAA rates and performance are pretty much in line with his previous marks down there, when you consider that a portion of it this year was a rehab assignment.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    As we have seen with Sano, there are limits to Ft Myers solutions. I'd rather give him MLB reps this September while they are available, do the Ft Myers thing this offseason, and then plan to option him next April as you describe.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    This post hasn't aged well...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins decide not to call up Byron Buxton at end of Class AAA Rochester's season http://m.startribune.com/twins-decide-not-to-call-up-byron-buxton-at-end-of-class-aaa-rochester-s-season/492278891/
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    If you haven't seen it, then you haven't seen my posts on the subject. You may still reject it, though. Seriously, if one thinks Buxton needs high-level game reps while they are available, especially after missing so many this season, the best thing might be to call him up to MLB when the AAA season ends, but then plan on a different "plan A" for the outfield in 2019 so you are not overly reliant on Buxton again, and you can option him for the first 29 days of the season, where he can continue to get game reps (albeit in AAA and not MLB) while you test the viability of your alternate plan A. Gets you the same extra year of control, plus maximizes Buxton's game reps. The cost is, as you mention, that you go without Buxton for a month in 2019 where we might contend, as opposed to a month where we definitely aren't contending in 2018. But given where Buxton is at, I am not sure that month in 2019 is all that critical either -- I am sure if Buxton had ~29 more days service time, pushing the target for the extra year of control to roughly May 1st next year, you and others here would have no qualms about my plan. If Buxton playing this September means nothing about your confidence in him to open next season, then you should actually be cool with my plan. Unless you think Buxton is a good opening day 2019 plan A, which seems suspect at this point.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with you, up until the last sentence. While we and every other team has definitely lost relievers on waivers, I don't think we have lost one in spring that we just added to the 40-man the previous September. But yeah, adding Reed and Anderson at this point is all about how many roster spots you need this winter. An especially tricky aspect is that new additions to the 40-man roster after August 15 are considered "draft-excluded players" and can't be outrighted between November and March, even if they clear waivers. You'd have to trade or simply release them. (This is to discourage teams from protecting guys from Rule 5 but then turning around and outrighting those same players off the roster in favor of free agents.) https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3520
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Rick Aguilera, back in the day. Cliff Lee was traded by Philly in the 2009-2010 offseason, then signed with them as a FA after 2010. I wouldn't read too much into this -- the population of recently traded players is pretty small, and it's largely comprised of players who are playing well (so they will have a competitive FA market) and they were generally dealt from less competitive teams. I agree that the Twins odds of signing Escobar aren't that high, but at the same time, I don't think we necessarily hurt those odds by trading him either.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    This is a wild exagerration. Yes, there are some bad teams, but there are still a lot of players on those teams above "AAAA" talent. (And September callups don't usually pitch many innings, and honestly aren't that different from the staff the rest of the year -- in some cases, they might be inprovements!) Look at the Tigers, they still have 3 SP with 104-113 ERA+, plus Fulmer having a down year at 94, plus Greene and Wilson in their pen. Those are all pitchers for whom it would be valuable for Buxton to face. The Royals are worse, but they still have Duffy, Junis, and Keller starting. The White Sox have Rodon and Kopech who have looked great so far, plus Shields and Lopez having competent seasons. Not to mention we have 30% of our remaining games against NYY, HOU, and OAK where we could encounter a nice playoff atmosphere.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Hmmm... this is the first I head of it. Seems like they are setting up cover for their decision to not call him up: https://www.twincities.com/2018/08/31/miguel-sano-wants-to-see-byron-buxton-back-in-the-majors-soon/amp/ Falvey was quoted just a couple days ago in another Berardino article about Buxton and didn't mention any of that about the wrist -- just some generic stuff about doing "the best thing by all the players and ultimately how we build our team": https://www.twincities.com/2018/08/29/byron-buxton-doesnt-sound-like-a-lock-for-september-call-up/amp/ If they are still honestly asking him to play through an injury, at AAA during a lost season, then that seems pretty foolish in its own right.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I know this is a joke, BUT -- you only have to be in the organization as of Sep. 1st to be eligible for a postseason roster. DL is fine, as is a non-roster minor league deal (the Cubs just signed Jaime Garcia to one of those). The rules about this are less strict than they used to be.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Hopefully Giminez is only up to pitch when the game gets out of hand. And then Belisle would only be back to pitch when the game gets *really* out of hand.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    You can trade players on the DL. You may not be able to request trade waivers on them, but I suspect Wilson already went through those waivers earlier this month: https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3538 Basically, they don't want teams using the DL to help guys clear trade waivers. I suppose Josh Donaldson was eligible to be activated and is healthy enough to play too, considering he is already on a rehab assignment.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I googled it, and a few of the top hits were just as skeptical as I am: https://bluejaysnation.com/2018/08/17/apparently-the-jays-are-worried-about-giving-josh-donaldson-a-qualifying-offer/ https://jaysjournal.com/2018/08/18/blue-jays-dont-worry-josh-donaldson-qualifying-offer/ The top two hits I saw pushing the "no QO" angle were just video/audio. Maybe just media trying to generate interest in a lost season? Do you agree with the no QO idea? Because it seems quite at odds with your assessment of Donaldson's abilities and his market value. Yeah, they have Vlad Jr., but they could pretty easily make more room at 1B/DH. And keep in mind that as good as he is, Vlad Jr. has yet to play a full 162 game season, and spent a month on the DL this summer. And they also have a lot of payroll room (as I mentioned, a QO would be a pay cut for Donaldson) and not a lot of places to spend it. If they actually want to surround Vlad Jr. with a competitive team, they would be pretty foolish to turn down free negotiating leverage with Donaldson. Assuming Donaldson isn't damaged goods, if he accepts they are a demonstrably better team in 2019; if he declines, they have a leg up on resigning him if they want, or they pocket extra draft picks (which could make it easier to trade prospects to help the team too).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    But don't you think you might be over-rating the chances of a 4 year deal, if the Jays aren't even willing to make a QO? How many guys have gotten 4 year deals after their teams declined to make a QO?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    He's barely played in AAA this year, beyond the last 2 plus weeks. Really holding it against him that he scuffled his first 10 days of rehab in June? When he hadn't been healthy in a couple months? He's got a .936 OPS down there since July 1st, with a DL stint in the middle.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Meh. The team has trotted out Hughes, Belisle, Breslow, Haley, and Kinley for at least that much time, in early/competitive seasons. I agree wins count just as much in April as they do in September, but it would be an odd time for the Twins to start thinking that way. (Especially after dealing Pressly?) Plus it would give us a chance to look at a viable Buxton alternative for 2019, which really should be a priority after the 2018 debacle. Can Cave do it? Maybe we can lure a decent FA with the promise of an opening day job?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. If Mauer was a free agent from another org, I think I might view him not unlike Forsythe in some ways. We could aim higher, although he could also fit on a cheap short deal under the right circumstances. I suspect he will retire, though, and I wouldn't try to change his mind about it.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's my guess too. Then Jake Reed can take Mejia's spot (60-day DL). Another player could take Ervin's spot (60-day DL too), if so desired. Andrew Vasquez? Nick Anderson?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, we also need to evaluate the reliever, and the manager.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    On the flip side, the primary justification here -- his poor showing in MLB in 2018 -- seems to be based on a sample of only 94 PA. His AAA K/BB rates aren't encouraging, but they also don't seem to be terribly different from the last few years when he has, overall, been an acceptable MLB player.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it is done far less often than trading an expiring contract. Although some of that is rare circumstance, it seems true that service time is rarely a consideration beyond a player's initial call-up. You may not care, but it does feel like not calling him back up for September would violate the norms of the sport a bit. Also, one of the prerequisites of doing this is that the player has to have struggled quite a bit, which diminishes the projected value of that future season too.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope -- Wilson didn't play in the Tampa organization until 2015-2016, when Maddon was already in Chicago. They did overlap a little in the Angels organization, when Maddon was the MLB bench coach and Wilson was still in the low minors, but that was way back in 2003-2005.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It's tricky. I don't necessarily mind some mild service time manipulation, but I don't like the idea of passing up an opportunity to face high level pitching. Especially when he has missed so many opportunities already this season (only 94 PA in MLB). And the flip-side benefit of rest comes before 4+ months of rest anyway -- the marginal benefit of an additional month rest seems small.
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