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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    As a baseball nerd, I love Rule 5, and I love rooting for underdogs like Rule 5 picks, but honestly, I think I'd rather see my favorite team have a better plan for talent acquisition and roster construction these days.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    $100k seems cheap, but in modern Rule 5, you're not buying much. Take a look at the recent results: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results The last couple years, it's like maybe 1 useful guy out of 18 picks. By comparison, there are quite a few far more successful/valuable guys signed on minor league deals every year -- like Brandon Morrow for the Dodgers a couple years ago, Kintzler for the Twins, etc. Dereck Rodriguez, even. And those guys actually cost LESS than $100k (not to mention not requiring a 25 man roster spot). You'd probably be better off trying to identify those guys and enticing them to sign with the roster spot you would have used on a Rule 5 pick instead. It comes down to, what's the best 40-man I can assemble in the offseason? And what's the best 25-man I can field to start the season? Talent can be scarce, but not so scarce that Rule 5 picks need to be part of those roster equations, at the low odds of recent Rule 5 results. There's enough potential/talent available, in free agency, trades, etc., that it's easy to see why it's preferable for most teams to opt against drafting/rostering Rule 5 guys.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Justin Haley threw 7.2 innings of mop-up duty for the Red Sox in June, was nowhere near their MLB roster in the second half of the season much less the postseason, and cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man by Boston on Nov. 1st, before he elected minor league free agency on Nov. 2. So if you want him back, here's your chance! You can give him a spot instead of another Rule 5 guy.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, per Wikipedia, White Sox catcher Omar Narvaez and Marlins/Phillies 1B Justin Bour were selected in the minor league phase of the 2013 Rule 5 draft. Alexi Ogando and Aejandro De Aza are two more names I recognized when scanning the list. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results Still, the odds are quite low.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Former Twins 3B Brian Buscher:
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    How about neither hand?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Reed might be better than Granite, but Granite has options. We won't be able to shuttle Reed back and forth from AAA. (So he pretty much has to be back end of the 25 man rather than 40 man)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Reed was also repeating both AA and AAA last year. Not that he's super old or anything, but prior to his breakout last year, he already had 590 career PA at AA, and 640 more at AAA. Reed is also 16 days older than Jake Cave. He turns 26 on Nov. 18, while Cave do so on Dec. 4.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Also worth noting Reed has been optioned each of the last 3 years (2016, 2017, 2018). So he will be out of options next spring -- which is probably why the Braves were waiving him. A team has to ask itself: worth rostering the guy all winter, if there is a reasonable chance he doesn't make your club and you lose him on waivers next spring? Of course, some teams have more roster room than others... Edit to add: Cave just used his first option year in 2018, so he still has 2 more.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. Reed's BABIP in the minors this year looked to be about .460. Which is impressive, but also nowhere near sustainable.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. See the discussion above. Berardino also confirmed Alcala's status back when we acquired him: https://twitter.com/mikeberardino/status/1023235490491891714
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct. Graterol was first assigned to the DSL Twins (albeit not until 2015, but that doesn't matter), and the DSL season was already over by Sep. 1st in 2014. Hypothetically, had he first been assigned to a full season minor league in 2015, he could have been eligible this winter.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    "What’s that? Rose Bowl? Don’t talk about - Rose Bowl? You kidding me? Rose Bowl? I just hope we can win a game!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2R2sH2ScBM
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't trying to troll you, sorry. I don't think you were the only one with the moral victory angle last week. I am just hanging out on the lighter side of the discussion, that's all! (Coping mechanism for sports fandom)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I presume today's game was fulfilling the dying wish of some Nebraskan boy.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Moral victory?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Nah. They could do all right in Division II.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The "good upper level prospect" in this equation would have to be Lewis or maybe Kiriloff. There is no way that Odorizzi, Gonsalves, and, say, Gordon could fetch a "top young starter that can be a big part of the staff for many years." I'm not even sure if that would be enough to rent an old starter.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, in the context of the league non-pitcher K% jumping 1.8% since 2014, Odorizzi's 2018 increase may not be particularly meaningful.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that Mauer and Morneau's prime ages/health overlapped is pretty much coicidence. Mauer was just fine in 2012-2013 without much of a supporting cast (Morneau was a shell of his former self by then), and when Morneau missed the ends of the 2009 and 2010 seasons, etc.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    No difference, unfortunately. Keep in mind that Mauer followed that "foul double" with a single, so we really only lost 1 base. The next 2 batters singled too before we squandered the inning, so perhaps that 1 extra base would have led to 1 run -- but it was only the top of the inning, and Teixeira led off the bottom of the inning with a HR anyway, with 9th inning hero A-Rod on deck. The mostly likely outcome of a correct call by Cuzzi would have been a slightly longer Twins loss. And even if the Twins somehow won that game, it would have only evened the series at 1-1. We still would have needed to win 2 of the next 3 to actually change the outcome of the series, which was going to be a virtual impossibility given how poorly we were hitting. Terrible call, and rightly remembered and ridiculed -- but not a difference-maker.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, due to the nature of the system, Buxton will likely get a raise anyway. He's looking at least ~$1 mil or so for 2019 salary. I think Nick's contention is, if he submits a figure at $1.5 mil or something, then just settle there. The extra year of control has been secured, the message sent, the fire lit or whatever else you want to call it. There is nothing to be gained further by arguing with him over a couple hundred thousand bucks at this point, which might represent 0.2% of our payroll and wouldn't be a disincentive to him signing an extension down the road either. Consider it like a grievance settlement without the acrimony, or just the MLB pay he could have received after roster expansion in 2018 (while the team still withholds the more important service time).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    We have no idea of the terms of the proposed extension which he turned down -- it may have been, and may remain, a smart business decision on his part. Given that the front office has yet to ink an extension with anyone, perhaps they are not offering fair terms yet? Or they aren't generating much long-term buy-in from the players yet? (Also, Buxton extension talks are not going to happen this offseason. There isn't really a figure that could satisfy both parties at this point in time. That's not a fault of Buxton or the Twins, it is just a reality of the situation. Teams and players just don't sign "buy low" extensions, at least not at this kind of low.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    You've got a point about being overmatched, but service time wouldn't really be an issue. They are both pretty much guaranteed to be added to the 40-man by November, and neither one is likely to open 2019 in the majors, which would "pause" their service time clock and render any service time accrued in September 2018 mostly irrelevant.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking for more details on his no-trade, I found this article from 2 years ago: "Diamondbacks Must Admit Defeat This Offseason By Trading Zack Greinke" https://www.forbes.com/sites/benberkon/2016/10/11/diamondbacks-must-admit-defeat-trade-zack-greinke/ I feel like trading Greinke might be one of those evergreen topics of discussion, regardless of likelihood.
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