AlwaysinModeration

Great to see one of trade returns ranked this high, and seems like Duran has great pure stuff that is extremely projectable, which is the basis for a lot of proscpet lists. But let me repost what I posted on the forum when Tom put up spotlight article on Duran, now that we see TD has Gonsalves ranked #11 and Duran at #7: “I looked up Gonsalves’ minor league numbers: 108 games started, 599IP, 2.42ERA, 1.10WHIP, 9.5/3.6 K/BB. Duran’s numbers: 54GS, 259IP, 4.02ERA, 1.32WHIP, 8.0/3.2K/BB. Gonsalves had 4 mediocre starts in the big leagues and people have written him off. Not to throw shade on Duran, like I said I hope he turns into a great prospect for the Twins and sustains the improvement. I would have Gonsalves ahead of Duran on prospect lists, though. He could turn into a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. Duran is a long way from becoming that. I see that you have Gonsalves ahead of Duran, Tom. But two of the four of you have Gonsalves ranked lower than Duran. I think that Gonsalves’ mediocre debut shouldn’t tarnish his outlook. Remember Berrios...”

And I will note that the Twins pick this year (12 or 13?) is a pretty good spot to grab someone who fits this description, that doesn’t seem like a sure bet, but has lots of upside.

If he posted a 1.33 ERA in 20 GCL innings, and end the season with 53 innings of 2.36ERA in Low A, he must have had a really rough first 21 innings in Cedar Rapids to wind up with a 3.26 ERA overall. In any event, I certainly hope he pans out. For some reason I feel like he’s on the same path as Gonsalves.

Touché! He was definitely billed as a #1 guy. (And Royce Lewis never was).

I know very little about how the top picks of the draft are figured out. But a strategy that seems to work is to find guys that are considered #1 picks and then lost their luster with a bad spring or an injury before the draft. Trea Turner, Sean Manaea, Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, Adrian Peterson types. (If you squint, Kyle Gibson could fit that description.)

SD, how about he go with the nickname “Yabba Dah”?

Agreed. As an example, I had hoped the Twins would sign Mauer to an extension after his age 25 season, in which he won his second batting title. Instead, he won the MVP, and became much more expensive. I bet they could have signed him for 7/140, which would have been a LOT better, for several reasons.

I plead the fifth on whether I will need a fifth to mull over the fourth.

I should have said, in keeping with the spirit of the article, “let me put forth a fourth fourth” in Austin.

Do they all have options? A fourth who doesn’t have an option is Tyler Austin. Reed looks intriguing. With two starting lefties in the OF corners, wouldn’t it make more sense to have the bench guy be right handed?

#57 should still be on the Hall of Fame ballot. Meanwhile, #34Kirby doesn’t even get a mention. And some open real estate in the 80s and 90s.

Wade Wilson died on his 60th birthday.

I don’t think those marks are unreasonable for any of the three. Buxton: 800 OPS. His minors OPS was 874; 901 in AAA. 800 is definitely manageable. Sano: 30 HRs. He hit 25 and 28 in 2016 and 2017. I think he should be shooting for 40, personally. THAT would be a breakout. Berrios: flirt with 3.00 ERA, All-Star berth. In six seasons in the minors, he posted a 2.77 ERA. He’s posted two seasons of 3.85~ish ball in the majors. As he hits his prime, he can absolutely hit his stride, and challenge 3. An all star berth would follow that. These guys are young, and haven’t posted their best mlb numbers yet. It’s eminently reasonable for them to start reaching their potential this year.

Turner was hyped as the top pick early in the draft season, and fell off. You can do this a million different ways, and it’s sort of pointless, but in retrospect, it would have been great if the Twins had taken Turner, or Aaron Nola, who posted college numbers throughout his draft season that look a lot like the numbers he put up for Philly last year. Also in retrospect, I’m sure fans of other teams wish they had drafted Berrios and Kiriloff when they had the chance.

I don’t think he ignored it, the stats with the Twins were mentioned quite prominently in both write-ups, along with the bigger picture. It’s the bigger picture which placed them in the top 20, which is quite a haul for a Rule 5 pick.

What’s the appropriate etiquette for rooting for your “team” here?

Top Chef’s Fatima Ali, age 29, passed away on Friday: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/26/obituaries/fatima-ali-dead-chef.html

If I recall correctly, that was the contraption a former Vikings RB got caught with (in the airport), to smuggle “clean” urine in to use to beat drug testing in the NFL.

In answer to your original premise, I think the answer is at least “probably.”

I’m taking your attempt and editing it, and adding to it: As far as pursuing a top-end starter, I know some fans aren’t going to buy this, but we're very confident in the guys we have in the organization. You can certainly never have too much pitching, but we like what we see when we take a look at our in-house options. First, we believe strongly that Jose Berrios is as good of a building block to a rotation as there is. He's still only 24-years-old and has several years ahead of him in a Minnesota Twins uniform. Second, look at the career trajectory of Kyle Gibson. He was a first round pick and a top prospect, who was stalled along the way to success, in big part due to injury, but also, we think, due to his approach and pitch selection. In the last 1.5 years, he has really put it all together, and there is no reason to believe he isn’t going to continue to get better this year. Third, we are very excited to see what Michael Pineda can do for us this year. Like Gibby, he was a top prospect whose career was sidetracked after he suffered from injury. He also suffered from a lot of bad luck in terms of hits falling in (go check out his batting average on balls in play over the past few years) and frankly, playing in Yankee Stadium with that short right field porch. He was a highly sought-after player in Seattle for a reason, and we feel lucky to have been able to get him when we did by taking a risk to invest in him over two years. We are looking forward to the payoff of that investment this year - I think Mike is going to surprise some people with the season he is going to have. (And by the way, I shouldn’t say this, but we are hoping that our investment in him will not only pay off this year, but also allow us to keep him beyond this year, too, either through a qualifying offer or an extension.) Fourth, I want to point you at two of our young guys who are just now getting their chance to establish themselves in the bigs: Romero and Gonsalves. We have watched these guys climb the ranks of the system, excelling and establishing themselves more and more as legit prospects. They both finally got a taste of the majors last year. While they aren’t guaranteed anything this year, I can tell you this—they are both going to get a real chance to prove that they can be great, and we expect that they will start to do this at the major league level this year. I don’t think that they will be top of the rotation guys right away (such as this year), but their track record tells us that they absolutely have what it takes to get there. Ultimately, of course, it is up to them, and we are excited to see if they can do it. I also want to note that in terms of our pitching staff, you simply cannot underestimate the impact of getting Buxton and Castro back on the field this year. Those two guys are both going to make all of our pitchers look - and perform - considerably better. Finally, one more important point. Our new pitching partnership of Wes Johnson, Jeremy Hefner, Pete Maki and others are going to put those pitchers in the best possible situations to succeed. I think these guys are going to bring a lot of new ideas and energy to our pitching staff that are going to have a marked difference. Oh, and one more thing. In terms of the Martin Perez signing, I don’t really know what we were doing with that one, either. Maybe we’ll catch lightning in a bottle or he’ll finally start to figure it out. Hopefully Wes can work a miracle with him, that seems to be what he has done over the years. Let me just say this: Thad made me do it.

The article was very good. Lots of interesting tidbits. He said the motivation to get stronger was the fact that he only played in 12 games last year and couldn’t stay on the field. Excited about the new acquisitions. Met with Baldelli, who showed up in Baxley...without realizing that he scheduled his visit on Buxton’s 25th birthday. Buxton was mad that he missed the end of Mauer’s career. He used to start hitting in January, but this offseason he started in October. You can’t really read that article as a Twins fan and not feel optimistic about his upcoming season.

I agree with you. I don’t think I would have signed him. I would rather see internal options Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia get the first crack. I’m just trying to work through the reasoning behind the move. And thinking through it, I came up with a number of reasons. I’m still not convinced. That said, I guess we are going to find out if the FO guys know more than we do.

Ok, let me chime in on this, because a)everyone is, and b)I know all will be eager for my take. Here are reasons I can see taking a flier on this guy: 1. He was top-ranked as a prospect, hitting #18 on mlb.com, #17 on Baseball America, and #7 on Keith Law’s list. Granted, this was back in 2010, a long time ago. But there is a reason players get those sort of high rankings. 2. He’s 27. It’s unusual to get a former top prospect right at the start of their prime years. (This certainly seems an MO for the FO; get “the shine is off” 27-years olds - Schoop, Austin, Perez.) 3. He’s played in Texas, the most extreme pitcher’s park outside of Colorado (and maybe even including Colorado). 4. He had TJ surgery in 2014. It frequently takes a while for players to come back fully from that. (See Gibson, Kyle, and look upthread for nick’s lone wolf get-rid-of-the-sinker arguments). He also has had some odd injuries; the bull thing, and screwing up his thumb in a hotel door. 5. His MLB BABIP is .315, and it was .330 and .345 the last two years in Texas. Get a year of <300 and that alone might result in better numbers. Couldn’t find his minor league BABIP. 6. He’s from Venezuela and left handed, good change-up. (The Johan comps leap off the page. s/) 7. He came cheap, after Texas declined a $7.5mm option, they got him for $3.5 and a year option. He might be terrible, but if he puts it together, it could be a decent deal. Let’s remember, he’s being signed as a possible #5, nothing more, with not much risk. The Mets wanted him but weren’t going to give him a chance at the rotation, so he picked the Twins. 8. Levine knows him from Texas (as does Nelson Cruz?). So, that’s what I’ve got. I also get that he hasn’t been good, he didn’t live up to his billing, his minors numbers also weren’t great, and he might be taking a spot from someone else. All of that is why he’s available at 27 for cheap. Realistically, though, he’s probably getting 10-15 starts. If he gets 30 starts, it’s because he did well. I think Mejia, Romero, and Gonsalves all will get opportunities in the rotation this year; you need 8-10 starters every year. I get people may have wanted someone else (Keuchel, Buchholz, Kimbrel, Allen), but I don’t think this is the worst move in the world.

Agreed, they would make room for Machado. I just don’t think they would have signed two IFers and a DH if they were going to sign another one. All of this is silly. Aside from the obvious fact that they haven’t signed anyone to commit any 2020 dollars, if the Twins are the mystery team and sign Machado, it would be utterly, completely, fall-out-of-your-chair, I’d-eat-my-hat, shocking.

One additional thought on the Twins being the “mystery team.” Jonathan Schoop helped talk Nelson Cruz into signing with the Twins. Who played with Schoop and Cruz in Baltimore? Of course, if the Twins land Machado, I don’t think there are enough spots in the lineup for Machado, Cruz, Sano, Schoop, Cron, Austin, Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco, and Castro/Garver. That’s 11 players for 9 spots.