Parker Hageman

Certainly Danny Santana wasn't the answer. I like Hicks' skill sets. I'm not entirely sure he is a guy who is fully prepared for that role. He hit much better down in the order than at the top but a lot of his leadoff at bats came after his hamstring injury.

The 2015 Minnesota Twins season is dead and gone. People mourn the end of the baseball in different ways. One way is to stare at tons of numbers on a computer screen trying to make sense of the season. For instance, did you know Trevor Plouffe was terrible when facing fastballs? Or that Kyle Gibson threw the fewest in-zone pitches among all qualified starters? Here are all the little statistical tidbits from 2015.Can’t handle the heat? Trevor Plouffe’s .220 average against fastballs was the fourth-lowest among all qualified hitters. On the other hand, he was one of the game’s best when it came to doing damage on breaking balls (curves and sliders). His OPS against those pitches was .820 -- 9th-highest among MLB hitters. In fact, Plouffe collected 25 extra base hits on breaking balls (only Yoenis Cespedes [26] had more) and was able to do that damage because he attacked the hangers up in the zone. http://i.imgur.com/yYyfMhh.gif Plouffe also had five extra base hits with the bases loaded this season. Only Boston’s Xander Bogaerts had more (6). Miguel Sano’s season was incredible for a 22-year-old. According to Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index, dating back to 1914 Sano’s .916 OPS is the 21st highest among 22-year-olds with a minimum of 300 plate appearances. He demonstrated a unique blend of patience and power as he drew walks in 15.8% of his plate appearances (11th highest among 22-year-olds) and, according to BaseballSavant.com’s batting ball velocity, he put balls in play at an average of 94.45 MPH. Only Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton pelted balls harder (97.73 MPH). On September 30, Sano hit this Zach McAllister 95.2 MPH fastball into the bleachers at 114 MPH. This would be the hardest hit ball for the Twins in 2015, according to BaseballSavant.com: http://i.imgur.com/A5RPDn8.gif Sano’s .916 OPS also ties him with Tony Oliva for the highest OPS by a Twins’ rookie. Bryon Buxton is really fast. I don’t have a stat or a number or anything but...just...just trust me on this. Brian Dozier hit a team-leading 28 home runs this year. Seven of those bad boys came on pitches outside of the strike zone (tied for MLB-high with Colorado’s Nolan Arenado). Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_heatmap (4).png Dozier also had the honors of facing two of the three fastest pitches in the 2015 in his at bat against Cincinnati’s Aroldis Chapman. According to MLB’s Statcast, Chapman’s 1-2 offering reached 103.9 mile per hour but had the perceived speed of 105 miles per hour thanks to Chapman’s long limbs. It is amazing that Dozier was able to even get a piece of it. http://i.imgur.com/gIdnDoy.gif For the bulk of the season Dozier was used as the team’s primary leadoff hitters (102 games) but the combination of him, Aaron Hicks (31 games) and Danny Santana (18 games) led to one of the lowest productivity from the top of the lineup across baseball. Thanks in part to Dozier’s 22 home runs out of the leadoff spot (only Curtis Granderson [26] and Manny Machado [23] had more), the Twins did score 104 runs (7th out of 30), but in terms of setting up the offense to do further damage, they finished 27th in on-base percentage (.298). Speaking of out-of-zone home runs...rookie Eddie Rosario’s free-swinging tendencies landed him with some unexpected home runs this year. He was able to launch two shots on pitches not only out-of-zone pitches but those classified as “non-competitive” (basically those pitches categorized as no one in their right mind would swing at). Of course, the outfielder also struck out 45 times on non-competitive pitches, the 8th-most in MLB. Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_heatmap (5).png Rosario’s triple total of 15 was the most by a rookie since Philadelphia’s Juan Samuel stretched out 19 three-baggers in 1984. Since 1950, only Samuel and the Dodgers’ Jim Gilliam (17) hit more triples in their rookie year than Rosario. Can’t start a fire without a spark. The Twins overall had the lowest batting average (.227) and on-base percentage (.280) when the bases were empty. However, with men in scoring position, they had the third-highest batting average (.279) and fourth-highest on-base percentage (.351). By most offensive yardsticks, Joe Mauer’s 2015 season wasn’t...you know...good. That said, when it came to getting hits with runners in scoring position, Mauer was able to contribute to the cause. His .352 average in 125 at-bats was the 9th-highest but, more importantly, he only made an out in 52.7% on a ball in play in those situations -- the lowest rate in MLB. Mauer also led baseball by reaching base on an error 14 times. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Among all starting right fielders Torii Hunter’s .702 OPS was the third-lowest and his WAR (0.5) was fifth-lowest. While everything was statistically bad overall, Hunter did post a .289/.368/.529 slash line in 144 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Eduardo Nunez’s helmet came off a lot. http://i.imgur.com/MrYCTw3.gif Outs all over the place. Danny Santana’s magical BABIP-drive 2014 season was followed by a horrific nightmare of a year in 2015. Among all Twins shortstops who were afforded 200 plate appearances, Santana’s .241 OBP was only better than Houston Jimenez (.238, 1984) and Jackie Hernandez (.218, 1968). That's a ton of outs. How about the outs Santana didn’t make? Since Fangraphs.com began tracking the revised zone metric (RZR) defensive rating in 2003, Santana’s .758 RZR was the worst among all Twins’ shortstops. What that means is that Santana has converted only 75.8% of plays in his zone into outs. The Twins eventually replaced him with Eduardo Escobar and Fangraphs/Inside Edge’s fielding data shows a remarkable difference for where Santana was significantly worse than Escobar at making simple routine plays: http://i.imgur.com/9S5l1iN.gifAaron Hicks would lead the team in stolen bases with 13...it was the lowest amount of swipes for a Twins season leader since Ron Washington (10) in 1983. According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Twins managed to thwart just 22 would-be base stealers. Their 19% caught stealing rate was lowest in baseball. Kurt Suzuki threw out just 15% of runners, the lowest rate among all qualified catchers. For no reason whatsoever, here is the Berenguer Boogie. http://i.imgur.com/Kv7SYGD.gif The Twins starting rotation allowed 163 home runs in 2015 (the 18th most in the majors). However 80 of those dingers came when there was men on base -- only Philadelphia (82) and Oakland (85) allowed more. Among all qualified starters, Kyle Gibson threw the lowest percentage of his pitches in the strike zone (40.5%) but that did not stop hitters from swinging: Only Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco (37.8%) posted a high chase rate than Gibson (40.5%). Avoiding the zone was a sound strategy for Gibson as opponents held a .831 OPS on pitches in the zone, well above the MLB average of .751. Rookie pitcher Tyler Duffey compiled a solid stat line, going 5-1 with a 3.10 ERA and a 53/20 K/BB ratio over 58 innings. There may be an element of luck in play for Duffey’s totals: According to BaseballSavant.com’s Batting Ball Velocity warehouse obtained from MLBAM’s statcast cameras, opponents had a 91.22 MPH exit velocity average -- that’s the 8th highest among all pitchers with 100 or more at-bats. Making contact was an issue for hitters in his outing: Duffey struck out 21.8% of batters faced, only second to Francisco Liriano’s 30.2% strikeout rate by a Twins rookie pitcher. The reason for that was his knee-buckling and whiff-inducing knuckle-curve. No pitcher in 2015 threw a higher percentage of curves than Duffy did (39.8%) but the yakker was responsible for 45 of his 53 strikeouts. Ricky Nolasco has now pitched 194.1 innings in a Twins uniform and his 5.56 ERA is the sixth highest for a Twins starter with a minimum of 150 innings or more thrown. Ahead of him? Jim Deshaies (5.71), Anthony Swarzak (5.87), LaTroy Hawkins (6.11), Pat Mahomes (6.26) and Scott Aldred (6.54). His .313 batting average against is the highest. Oh, and he is the only Twins pitcher to allow a home run that landed on a boat. Phil Hughes’ second season in the Twins uniform did not go quite as planned. Despite the loud contact and home runs and injuries, Hughes did the one thing he was really good at: He didn’t issue any free passes. Hughes walked 0.95 batters per nine innings in 2015 which is the third lowest season total behind Carlos Silva’s ridiculous 2005 (0.43) and Hughes’ 2014 (0.69). Hitters were getting good wood on Hughes’ pitches in the first half: His .201 well-hit average trailed behind only Colorado’s Kyle Kendrick for the highest in baseball. http://i.imgur.com/GNmXJm1.gif An elite All Star closer for the first half of the season, injuries once again marred Glen Perkins’ second half. Perkins’ fastball velocity has declined over the past two seasons, mostly likely injury related. In 2013, he chucked 111 fastballs at 96 MPH or above. Last season he failed to crack 96 at all. This year? Four times he was able to amp it up to 96 -- three of which happened in the same game versus the St. Louis Cardinals on June 17. Perkins’ 78% contact rate (contact per swing) was the second-highest among closers (minimum 15 saves). Only the Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen (72.5%) and Jonathan Papelbon (70.8%) fired more strikes than Perkins (70.1%) and only Papelbon (3.47) used fewer pitches per batter than Perkins (3.50). Kevin Jepsen’s 75 appearances (33 with the Twins) was the highest in the American League over the entire year but Casey Fien’s 35 appearances in the second half was one behind Texas’ Shawn Tolleson for the most by an AL reliever post-All Star Game. Before we go, a young Kent Hrbek striking out and flipping his bat. http://i.imgur.com/AbzVQcW.gif Click here to view the article

On this week's NO JUICE PODCAST, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman review the 2015 Minnesota Twins season, hand out their awards and revisit their over/unders set during the offseason. LISTEN UP.They talk about the parallels to the 2005 season in which the Twins finished with the same 83-79 record only to return in 2006 and win 96 games. Can the 2016 follow suit? With the right moves, it is entirely possible. So be sure to slap your lawn chair down in front of Brit’s Pub to get the front spot for the 2016 World Series parade. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #71: THE END Click here to view the article

I don't know what this says about where they figure Buxton will start to begin next season but it makes you wonder if they will give him more time at AAA.

Pete Rose would do the same thing. I guess it is not for everybody.

Cage work isn't just about swinging at meatballs. There is a process in what they are trying to implement and work out. It's reps but the right kind of reps. There are drills that hitting coaches can use to work specifically on hitting the breaking ball better but, as Dozier points out, it's not about hitting the breaking ball -- it's about hitting the fastball so you are not forced to swing at the breaking ball. I agree too that it will also be pitch recognition. You really can't recreate pro grade curves and sliders. Seeing more and more MLB curves will definitely help.

Yes, to be clear, this is simply a post on what is happening. A lot of players go through this development process.

Byron Buxton’s introduction to the game’s highest level has been tumultuous at best. There is no denying that he has been over-matched at the plate – and it was not entirely unexpected. When he was called to Minnesota, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal spoke with Doug Mienkiewicz, his manager at Chattanooga. “I don’t think he’s completely ready,” Mientkiewicz told Rosenthal. “Well, part of me says yes, and part of me says no.” Echoing Mientkiewicz’s thoughts, Baseball America cited two scouts who stated that they felt his approach at the plate was not an advanced one and that pitchers would challenge him early. This is almost exactly what has happened.While Twins fans have been blessed with being able to watch Miguel Sano and his advanced approach posting equal parts power and patience at the plate, they have also seen pitchers confound Buxton with an assortment of breaking balls. What we have seen out of Buxton is that he has done well in the situation in which he is ahead in the count. The problem, however, is that Buxton has rarely found himself ahead in the count this year. Download attachment: Buxton.png Buxton’s approach has been what most evaluators would consider raw. The road map to retiring Buxton is pretty clear cut -- get strike one then breaking ball, breaking ball, breaking ball (if needed). As a leadoff hitter in the minors, Buxton demonstrated patience, attempting to work the count to get his pitch. However, implementing the same approach at the major league level has led to being behind in the count quickly where opponents then dispatch an array of breaking balls with pin-point precision. It all starts with the ever important first pitch. With exception of Joe Mauer (11% swing rate) and Kurt Suzuki (20%) nobody on the roster has swung at fewer first pitch offerings than Buxton (23%). Unlike Mauer, who teams know can hit and therefore deliver fewer in-zone pitches, Buxton sees a ton of pitches in the strike zone. In fact, opponents have thrown in the strike zone on the first pitch 63% of the time -- the highest rate among the Twins’ hitters. (To be fair, Buxton sees a lot more than just fastballs down the pipe -- he also gets a hefty share of get-me-over breaking balls that most hitters do not.) If he attacks occasionally on a first pitch fastball, he might see fewer in-zone pitches, leading to a favorable count. Because Buxton has not given pitchers any reason not to fire a strike, they can very easily advance the count to 0-1. And that's when the pitchers put away their fastballs. While the average hitter gets a fastball 46% of the time in pitcher's counts, Buxton sees 43% fastballs. That’s less heat than even Miguel Sano sees (48%). Buxton is self-aware about his breaking ball issue. Back in 2013, he told Fangraphs.com’s Carson Cistulli that getting his first taste of professional grade benders was an eye-opener. “In the past I had trouble [with them],” Buxton said. “Like, Gulf Coast League and Rookie Ball. It was hard for me to adjust to breaking pitches coming out of high school.” Buxton eventually grew more comfortable with the pitches -- driving them the other way as he said -- but the leap from Double-A to the Majors introduced him to weapons-grade breaking balls. “I’m not used to seeing such sharp break as much as I did in Chattanooga,” he told reporters prior to his Target Field debut. As Buxton told Cistulli in 2013, his favorite pitch is a fastball or hanging curveball middle or middle-away so you can understand why the breaking balls look particularly appetizing because that is where they appear to be heading before they dart quickly out of the zone. Download attachment: Buxton_Curves.png It is a learning process for Buxton and being able to lay off that pitch will do wonders for his development. Beyond laying off of breaking balls, Buxton also needs to get more aggressive in certain situations. Although Buxton has hit the ball well when he works himself into a hitter’s count, he has been one of the more passive hitters in that circumstance. Under conditions in which he is seeing a high percentage of fastballs, Buxton has pulled the trigger less often than everyone other than Joe Mauer. Being more aggressive can pay dividends. In Boston, Mookie Betts figured out that he could not afford to be as passive as he had been in his rookie season. “(Major league) pitchers are just around the zone more. I feel like you have to swing a little more. You can’t go up there taking,” Betts told reporters this spring. “I kind of learned last year that you can’t go up there taking. You’ve got to be ready to swing it. That’s how (Derek) Jeter got 3,000 hits. He wasn’t up there taking.” Internally, the Twins had tried to get outfielder Aaron Hicks to unleash more on pitches in the zone. "Walks are great; getting on base is good," Terry Ryan told reporters back in 2013. "But if he has a chance to drive in a run, and he gets a pitch he can handle, let's go. That's all." This season, Hicks has grown increasingly aggressive in hitters counts, swinging at 46% of the pitches versus just 41% in his first two seasons. The results have been his best offensive season since reach the big leagues. Like Hicks, Buxton is also making the jump from Double-A where the same approach at the plate just won’t cut it. Each player's development happens at his own pace. Just because two players both excel at one level, does not mean they will have equal success (or failure) at the major league level. That being said, over the recent road trip Buxton showed some signs that he is progressing. In Detroit and Cleveland, Buxton attacked pitches in the zone more, leading to a pair of home runs and a double. There is plenty of promise. The focus now for Buxton is making sustained adjustments in his approach to ensure that he reaches his vaunted potential. Click here to view the article

It's about process. Things that are incorporated right away into the game (new pitches, mechanics, swings, etc) don't necessarily make an impact immediately. As I mentioned, I think it is a combination of both but no one seems to be mentioning the tangible, physical change of providing a different angle to the hitter. Both are substantial but oddly, only one has been reported/discussed.

Man. Always forgettin about Nolasco. I think the likelihood is low but there's probably a chance that they start with both Milone/Nolasco (love them some veterans) and have Duffey/Berrios in Rochester. Ugh. I feel gross. Need to take a shower.

I would bet that's how the season finishes up but I get the impression the Twins love to have a lefty in the rotation -- I can see Milone starting after camp.

If the Minnesota Twins somehow miraculously find themselves in the postseason, they will have Ervin Santana’s month of September as a big reason for that. Yes, it is crazy considering that by the end of August the fan base was ready to declare Santana’s signing a huge mistake. Over his first nine starts of the year, Santana owned a 5.53 ERA -- the sixth highest in baseball in that span. He had allowed 11 home runs -- tied for second-most in that time -- and he managed to strike out just 14% of batters he faced. In an instant, that all changed. Over the past 30 days Santana has the second lowest ERA (1.47) falling just behind the Cubs' Jake Arrieta (0.37), who has been pitching out of his mind this season. In a matter of a few weeks, Santana has gone from a pariah to a savior. How did that happen?In late August, following a stretch of starts in which Santana allowed 25 runs over 24.2 innings and a sad 11-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Minnesota Twins pitching coach Neil Allen identified Santana’s compromised release point as the source for his struggles. He used some unorthodox drills in order to help Santana rediscover his natural release point. At Tropicana Field, the Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino described the bullpen session: On his recent media tour including an in-game chat with Fox Sports North’s Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven, Santana has been crediting that session as the reason for his turnaround late in the year. Over his 11 seasons at the major league level, Santana told the audience that he had never attempted any sort of drills like the one Allen put him through in Tampa. Allen's choice of drills -- specifically the shortstop-ground ball drill -- appeared designed to help a problem with Santana’s struggles while pitching from the stretch. Prior to the session, Santana struggled mightily when throwing with runners on base, allowing seven home runs with runners on base. Essentially, he made every bad situation worse. However, after that session, Santana has limited the hard hit contact and has missed more bats. Download attachment: Santana_Stretch.png While there is little evidence of Santana’s vertical release point (height) changing much, PitchF/X data shows one major change he has made to his approach -- his horizontal release point is drastically different. Turns out, Santana has shifted from the third base side of the rubber to the first base side of the slab. Download attachment: Snatana Rubber.png While the narrative surrounding Santana has been focused on the bullpen session where Neil Allen taught him all the secrets of throwing good, the fact that Santana has made a tangible change in his approach has been wholly ignored or overlooked by the local media and hired baseball pundits. Meanwhile, GammonsDaily.com’s Alec Dopp astutely picked up on Santana’s mound changes and posted about them on September 15, showing visual stills of his new release and their implications. By BrooksBaseball.net’s database, as Dopp showed, Santana began throwing from the first base side of the rubber for his August 19 start in New York -- or about a week before his magical bullpen session with Allen. Does repositioning on the mound really give a pitcher that much of an advantage? Even adjusting a few inches on the pitching rubber can supply an entirely new angle for a the same old pitch -- it adds an element of deception, says Washington Nationals’ starter Doug Fister. “Whether it’s my height, where I stand on the rubber, the sinker I throw, whatever it may be. Trying to deceive a hitter is what I’m trying to do, keep him off-balance,” Fister told the Washington Times. “So, if moving over a little bit can help just a fraction of an inch, then hey, I’m going to try to take as much benefit out of it as I can.” Since repositioning towards the first base side of the rubber, Santana has seen an increase in swings-and-misses out of his slider, particularly on pitches located in the strike zone. His chase rate grew from 34% to 39%. His swinging strike rate on the pitch went from 17% to 22%. Opponents’ well-hit average went from .167 to .046. Perhaps the minor adjustment has added another element of difficulty to the pitch. Download attachment: output_wzmhdv.gif Then there is just a comfort level that moving a few steps over can provide to a pitcher. In Milwaukee, Brewers’ top prospect Taylor Jungmann cited his move from the first base side to the third base side in AA Nashville as one of the reasons he has had success in 2015. “I can’t explain it but I started throwing more strikes. My mechanics were a little more fluid. I didn’t change a whole lot; I just moved to the other side of the rubber,” Jungmann told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “It felt natural. It made it a little easier to be consistent with my (pitching) motion. The biggest thing was getting my breaking ball back.” Of course, it doesn’t always work for everybody. Back in 2012, then-Orioles pitcher Jake Arrieta explained to the mediahis logic as to why he went back to the first base side of the rubber after a tryst with the third base side. Going back to the first base side "[m]ade the pitches more effective because I could command them better. And the comfort level was much greater, much better. You need to find a delivery that you can repeat on every pitch.” Fast forward to 2015 and Arrieta is now one of the game’s best pitchers and uses the extreme third base side of the rubber to do all of his hurling. The Nationals’ pitching coach Steve McCatty downplayed the effects of that type of adjustment saying “Can it have a major impact where you say, ‘Oh my God, we landed on the Moon?’ Some guys it does. But most of the time, it’s not a big deal.” Did the shift have some game-changing effect on Santana’s pitching or was it Allen’s tutelage that helped revive his season? The answer is likely both. Santana’s shift may provide him with a more deceptive angle and comfort on the mound while Allen’s drills helped correct his release point and helped him to not fall off towards first as much. Either way, there is no denying how markedly different Santana has been since the end of August. Naturally, the biggest disappointment is that if Santana somehow leads the team to the postseason because of his PED usage, he would be unable to participate in any games. Still, no matter how the remainder of the season plays out, Santana has rebounded nicely in this season and has given the Twins front office some reassurance that he can be a key component in next year’s rotation. Click here to view the article

It kinda does but not necessarily so. If you read the post, Dozier said before that that he's no more banged up than anyone else. Which...whatever. Players downplay or hide injuries all the time, I guess. Interesting that Berardino added speculation of a right shoulder injury. I haven't seen anywhere else of that being an issue for Dozier.

The Cleveland Indians series seemed to be just what Brian Dozier needed. Mired in a prolonged slump in the second half, Dozier recorded five hits including a legitimate opposite field home run (as rare as unicorn eggs for him) and a double. Other would-be hits were taken away by the stalwart Cleveland defense but the process was there -- he was hitting the ball hard. A catalyst at the top of the order, the Twins have been sorely missing his contributions at the plate in the season’s second half. Once capable of dropping home runs in bunches, Dozier has struggled mightily to even elevate the ball. Similar to his 2014 season, his power potential disappeared late in the year. Is this, as the late Yogi Berra would say, deja vu all over again?Dozier’s first half contributions helped propel an offense that was still searching for an identity. Prior to the All-Star break, the Twins’ second baseman led the team in home runs (19), doubles (26) and scored a whopping 67 times while driving in another 50. In fact Dozier was so much on fire that even a NBC baseball correspondent declared him the game’s best second baseman -- and there was little resistance to this claim for good reason: Brian Dozier was simply the game’s best second baseman through the first half of the season. With the offensive numbers, steady defense and media darling status, it would be only a mere formality before he would be selected to participate in baseball’s midsummer classic. But something happened in Cincinnati. Rancid Skyline Chili, perhaps. Or maybe he drank straight from the Ohio River. Either way, when the season’s second half started, Dozier slid slowly into an offensive funk. Looking over Dozier’s splits between the first half and the second half tells the story that you already know. His slash line dropped across the board meaning he wasn’t getting as many hits, he wasn’t getting on base and he wasn’t hitting for power. Moving to two indicator stats on the far right, we know why. Dozier was not hitting the ball as hard and struggled to elevate the ball leading to the drop in power numbers. Download attachment: Dozier_Splits.png Those are the numbers which explain what you have seen or felt when watching Dozier over the last two months. It is as if his at-bats have been replaced by a slightly better Kurt Suzuki and no one is saying anything about it. Dozier denies being hurt -- no more so than anyone else who has played almost every game at this point in the season, anyway -- but he did tell reporters that something is happening with his swing that he is trying to fix. “I won’t go into much detail, but I’m having trouble getting (extension),” Dozier told the Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino last Sunday. “I can take getting out. I get out a lot. Everybody does. But pitches that I’m supposed to hit off the wall, I’ve been struggling with due to a couple of things. I’ve been trying to find ways around it. It’s starting to feel better, but the past couple of weeks I’m having trouble getting extended, getting my top hand through the ball.” For the second straight season, Dozier’s power has disappeared after July. Most telling this year is the ground ball rate. As you can see in the chart above, Dozier’s worm-burners have increased greatly over the last few months. At the beginning of the year, the grounders that he would hit would most frequently come on pitches that were outside of the zone -- those that he was fooled on or trying to protect in two-strike situations. Of late, Dozier has been beating pitching in the strike zone into the ground. Download attachment: output_teunBq.gif Dozier’s swing is unique. Royals pitcher Chris Young, a hurler who works up in the zone for a living, told Fangraphs.com’s Eno Sarris last year that Dozier, because of his level swing plane, will “yank that high pitch all day long.” Dozier’s skill at dismantling high fastballs is unparalleled and part of that is due to his swing. Whereas a significant portion of the game’s more prolific power hitters let the barrel drop or take a longer path to the ball, Dozier’s swing is compact and he does not allow his hands and bat to drop. For posterity, compare Dozier’s swing to that of Torii Hunter: http://i.imgur.com/hzdJjeh.gif http://i.imgur.com/DmPGVBK.gif Setting aside the fact that they are two different hitters on two different pitches, watch their hands and then the barrel of the bat. Dozier’s swing was tailor-made to handle pitches up in the zone. For Dozier, the swing plane can get tangled on pitches lower in the zone -- he is hitting a career .175 on pitches in the lower third of the strike zone -- but his seems even more susceptible on pitches that wind up lower than he anticipated. For example, in the season’s first half Dozier went off on pitches regularly on even counts (i.e. 0-0, 1-1 and 3-2) nabbing 27 hits in those situations. Still maintaining the same aggressiveness in those counts, he has collected just eight hits while creating more outs. What has changed is the pitches he has swung at. In the first half, Dozier hunted pitches up. More recently, those swings have been middle-in or substantially lower in the zone. Download attachment: output_lTi9Qe.gif So there is an element of teams adjusting to him and firing the occasional wrinkle or keeping the ball down in those counts. Like this example in the recent series against Houston. Dozier, attempting to maintain an aggressive approach with Byron Buxton on third, committed to swinging at the first pitch of the at-bat and was thrown a curve. http://i.imgur.com/mXJJyRS.gif Dozier mentioned that he is struggling on pitches that he is supposed to hit off the wall and the data confirms that. That area is the section between the elevated portion of the strike zone and the bottom of the zone. From May to mid-July, Dozier had hit nine of his home runs on pitches that were in the middle third of the zone. Since then, he has just two home runs and, as you can see in the GIF above, a ton more ground balls. Dozier provided a vague diagnoses on his swing to reporters, citing his inability to achieve extension and having issues with his top hand. His sudden spike in grounders -- particularly on pitches in the middle of the zone -- would confirm that type of problem with the top hand. So what is the driving factor behind this offensive coma? There is no one, clear answer. There is an element of pressing combined with pitchers trying to keep him off-balance in counts he had grown comfortable in. Dozier’s swing issues have generated more grounders. And while he says he is not hurting or tired, there is still no question that players suffer wear and tear. Then you just have angry Regression Gods that have nothing better to do but make a hitter miserable. Overall, Dozier is fine. He is not striking out an inordinate amount of times (not significantly higher than the first half anyway) or having terrible at-bats -- and he is still able to pop off on a high fastball as witnessed in the last series against Cleveland. That said, the Twins have just 10 games remaining and are struggling to keep their heads above water in the postseason hunt. They need some life from Brian Dozier. Click here to view the article

I have to say, I'm shocked the Twins were able to get to Salazar like that. They certainly weren't letting him get deep in the count, at least by swinging right away. Gotta do the same to Kluber.

If you are looking for a serious series, this is it. Until now, there has not been an important, meaningful series played in Minnesota this late in the season since 2010. With postseason aspirations hanging in the balance and the regular season schedule coming to an end, the Twins begin perhaps the most significant three-game set of the year at Target Field, against the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday night. Of course, the Indians will not make it easy. Over their last thirty games, not many teams have played better baseball than they have. Amassing a 19-11 record, only the Toronto Blue Jays have compiled a better American League record than Cleveland over that stretch. Can the Twins overcome Cleveland’s reinvented brand of baseball and make headway in the Wild Card race?At the trade deadline, the Indians began to ship out their veteran players, trading the likes of outfielder David Murphy, Brandon Moss, Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher and using less known commodities in guys like Abraham Almonte and Giovanny Urshela instead. Those moves were also preceded by the promotion of super-rookie Francisco Lindor in June. Like the Twins whose recent play has been fueled by young players like Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario, the Indians have turned the keys over to the kids. “That’s what we talked about at the (trade) deadline,” Indians manager Terry Francona told reporters. “We wanted to see younger guys, but we also would never sacrifice winning, ever.” Two of the game’s better hitters in the second-half of the season have been Lindor (.356 BA, 3rd highest in the second half), who has cemented his role in the two spot of the team’s lineup, and Michael Brantley (.347, 8th highest in 2nd half), who has hit directly behind Lindor in the order. The pair has managed to do this by pasting fastballs. Lindor has hit an MLB-high .461 off of fastballs in the season’s second half while Brantley has hit .408 (4th highest). The Twins pitching staff would be better served feeding the duo a steady diet of off-speed and breaking balls this series. With Lindor sandwiched between Jason Kipnis and Brantley at the top of the lineup the Indians suddenly have one of the most productive one-two-three combination. Whereas the Twins’ first three hitters are posting a .665 OPS since the break (third lowest in MLB), the Indians have produced at a robust .855 OPS (third best). This all has led to a renaissance of run production for the Tribe: After averaging 3.92 runs per game in the season’s first half, the Indians’ offense has been a much better supporter of the team’s pitching efforts in the latter portion of the year, plating 4.5 runs per game. It has not been just the offense that has improved. Reducing runs scored has been a major factor for the team’s strong second-half. Defensively, the addition of Lindor at short and Urshela at third has given the Indians a significant boost in run prevention. In the season’s first half, the team posted a -1 runs saved. Since the break they have saved 19 runs, the second most in baseball. “We knew that if we got to a point in time that we felt we weren’t making the progress we hoped as a team, that we had a couple of very good defensive options for us in Triple-A in Francisco Lindor at shortstop and obviously Giovanny Urshela at third base,” the Indians General Manager Chris Antonetti told Grantland.com’s Ben Lindbergh. “We felt pretty confident in their defensive ability to come up and contribute at the major league level.” While the Twins’ offense has been better at Target Field, the Indians pitching staff has also been one of the stingiest when it comes to allowing runs on the road in the second half of the season. Since the break Cleveland’s hurlers have averaged 3.69 runs per game while playing outside of Progressive Field -- only the St Louis Cardinals (3.64) have fared better in that time. Leading the way for the Tribe in that time is Wednesday’s starter, Corey Kluber. The Indians veteran right-hander has posted a 7.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the second-half, coming in behind just Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner in that department. Meanwhile, in their three meetings in 2015, Kluber has saved his best and limited the Twins’ lineup to just seven hits in 82 at-bats (.085 BA). Tuesday night’s starter, Danny Salazar, has compiled a 3.10 ERA over his last 69.2 innings while racking up 66 strikeouts courtesy of a mid-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss changeup. Similar to Kluber, Salazar has had plenty of success versus the Twins this year, holding them to a .159 average against while striking out 21 in 13 innings. Oh, and the game doesn’t get any easier once Cleveland turns to the bullpen either. Since the break, the Indians relievers have allowed just 1.1 runs per game -- only the Blue Jays’ pen has allowed fewer runs in that span. Will the Twins separate themselves from the Indians and make headway for their first postseason berth in five years? Regardless of the outcome, this stands to be the most important series to be played on Minnesota soil in quite some time. Make sure to get to the ballpark. Click here to view the article

** NOTE: This was originally published at my Over The Baggy blog in April 2011 following Tsuyoshi Nishioka's unfortunate injure at the second base bag at the legs of Nick Swisher. With Jung Ho Kang's recent injury and CJ Nitkowski's post at FOX Sports about the subject, I felt like there was some additional information that pertains to this incident. Enjoy** In just over a week of regular season games, it became clear that Tsuyoshi Nishioka had a slow learning curve when it came to the nuances of baseball on this side of the Pacific. Coming over from Chiba Lotte Marines, Nishioka was lauded for his eye at the plate, racking up numerous walks and an impressive on-base percentage to go along with it. Yet, we had not been privy to this discerning eye rather one that does not seem quite calibrated. After all, in 26 plate appearance he has struck out eight times - going down looking whopping six. Most fans knee-jerkingly want to deem Nishioka overmatched by Major League Baseball’s superior firepower without considering that Japan’s strike zone, while vertically larger, is typically narrower than the one we have over here. Although he had the ability to hash out the details of the stateside strike zone without the threat of bodily injury, he was not afforded the same luxury when discovering the realities of the American basepaths. This past winter, when asked if he had any advice for his incoming countryman based on his experience assimilating to the American game, Kaz Matsui offered some words of wisdom for Nishioka including: With just a handful of middle infielders making the conversion from Nippon Professional Baseball to the major leagues, it has been a slow process for those players to embrace the type of play necessary to compete with the vigorous effort shared by their major league counterparts around second base: “Be careful about getting spiked during double plays” At TheBaseballCodes.com, a website dedicated to many spoken and unspoken rules of the game, the authors discussed the differences of the style between the two countries on the basepaths. Former major leaguer and ex-Yakult Swallow second baseman, Rex Hudler, said of his tenure in Japan’s Central League in 1993 that: To be sure, this non-aggressive behavior has been practiced for generations in Japan. It had been an element missing from their game for so long that, back in 1987, the Tokyo Giants sent a handful of their prized prospects to workout with the then-low A Miami Marlins in order to indoctrinate them in the ways of “hard-nosed” baseball. More specifically, they were sent to learn how to go into second base with their “spikes” up. Seeing has the “hard-nosed” movement just began to take roots in the early 1990s in Japan, it is easy to see why, as middle infielders began to transition from the Far East to the United States, most were not adequately prepared for the intensity that is shown on this side of the globe. “They didn’t come after me on double plays. They didn’t like to break up double plays. They weren’t real physical in their game. I was a physical guy, I liked contact. I had to ask the Americans on the other teams to come get me. I said, ‘come on, let’s make it fun, let’s make it exciting.’ ” In another instance cited at TheBaseballCodes.com, according to Rod Allen*, the color commentator for the Tigers at Fox Sports Detroit, referenced another second baseman that came over to the White Sox in 2005: *Allen, who also played in Japan himself, is remembered for one of the , another practice not observed overseas. While Iguchi never suffered a serious injury like Nishioka’s, he was sent sprawling several times including one that resulted in a deep knee bruise courtesy of Oakland’s Scott Hatteberg in 2005. However, another celebrated Japanese infielder, Akinori Iwamura, a third baseman for most of his career with the Yakult Swallows, was badly injured in a brush up at second. Unlike Iguchi or Matsui, Iwamura’s initial introduction allowed him to maintain his original position of third base in 2007 but was soon pressed off of the hot corner when prospect Evan Longoria was deemed ready. The Rays moved Iwamura around the diamond to second where, with the exception of a dust-up with the Yankees’ Shelley Duncan in spring training, he handled himself quite well. In 2009 however, Iwamura would suffer a very similar injury to Nishioka in the very same manner. While playing a series against the Marlins, in the bottom of the eighth inning Florida’s Wes Helms bounced a check-swing double-play ball to Rays pitcher Dan Wheeler. Wheeler fielded the ball and spun to second to feed the covering Iwamura. Iwamura received the throw on the base but then planted his front foot out in front of the bag to make the relay throw to first. Instead of completing the throw, the Marlins’ Chris Coghlan came in hard to the exposed Iwamura and wiped the infield dirt with him. The play resulted in a torn knee ligament for Iwamura and he was sidelined for the majority of the 2009 season. The following year, Iwamura never really regained his pre-injury abilities and wound up hitting just .173/.285/.250 in 229 plate appearances split between Pittsburgh and Oakland. Because of his unfamiliarity for needing to bail out quickly when turning the double play, Iwamura likely accelerated his way out of major league baseball. In addition to not only lacking the awareness to have a quick release, there is another element contributing to Nishioka’s unfortunate injury at second. As a shortstop, Nishioka was in the process of transition back to a position he had not played since 2005. This was a similar plight shared by his predecessor Kaz Matsui. When the Mets decided that Matsui’s defense at short was not up to snuff for the major league level, they switch him over to second base. Of course, while some might think that simply moving 50 paces to your left is an easy task, Matsui had some issues: That description sounds awfully familiar to what transpired in the Bronx on Thursday afternoon. In revisiting the clip, the footage clearly shows that Nishioka’s focus is on the baseball and not the whereabouts of the incoming Swisher: So for Nishioka, in just his sixth game at second base in seven years, he had to relearn the situational awareness that comes with the territory. Whereas when he was playing shortstop, the play happened before his eyes. Similar to a quarterback being rushed by a blind-side blitz, here we see a prime example of someone who is not entirely cognizant of the unfolding events. With these cases in mind, it can easily be concluded that because Japanese players do not grow up in a baseball culture that is taught to be vigilant of some two-hundred and ten pound individual bearing down on you, they seem to have a harder time adapting to the position – particularly the middle infield. This is exacerbated when accounting for the fact that they receive little on-the-job training at the minor league level. As much as it was likely stressed in Florida to Nishioka regarding the league’s ability to go gung-ho into the keystone, there really is no way of conveying this message (even more so when considering the language barrier) until a player is actually experiencing it. And for a player like Nishioka, he had to learn the lesson the hard way.

I've had a history of that lately.

Again, yeah. In the broad, simplified sense a player who is constantly playing against older competition is likely to see muted stats. And once they get experience they'll likely see improvement. In Escobar's case, it wasn't just age that was suppressing his minor league production. And it is not just experience that has led to him driving the ball now. Escobar's advanced defensive abilities was cited as the reason he was consistently playing at higher levels. Evaluators were never certain what he was going to provide offensively and likely didn't do him any favors in that department by moving him up.