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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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Article: Buxton and Dozier Gold Glove Finalists
Seth Stohs replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Carlos Santana Erik Hosmer Mitch Moreland- 35 replies
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- byron buxton
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Article: Buxton and Dozier Gold Glove Finalists
Seth Stohs replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, I'm old enough... and again, that was over 15 years ago...- 35 replies
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It's hard to know... Byron Buxton got something like $6.5 million when he signed, but $50-70 million guaranteed is something entirely different. Kepler and Polanco signed for $750K. Rosario probably signed for a couple hundred thousand. Sano signed for $3.15 million. I don't know what 'enough financial security' means. And it's hard to know what will encourage people to sign, the risk-reward quotient.
- 40 replies
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- max kepler
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Article: Mauer Snubbed In Gold Glove Voting
Seth Stohs replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is a fair point...- 51 replies
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Article: Buxton and Dozier Gold Glove Finalists
Seth Stohs replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think that the Gold Glove has become much better than what it was 15+ years ago. Then it almost was the same as the Silver Slugger. Now at least some thought goes into it. It's gotten better, but there are still some strange things.- 35 replies
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One thing I should have mentioned is that these guys may be the types where signing somewhat shorter deals may make sense. Maybe Rosario gets a three year, $9 million deal... or maybe you sign Kepler to a 3 year, $8 million or a 4 year, $14 million. In that case, they would each have a year or arbitration-eligibility after the contract remaining. Eliminates a lot of the risk for the Twins. Even if they get hurt and miss a year, the Twins only would overpay a couple of million. For the players, they may risk out on losing a couple million during those years, but they can become free agents earlier.
- 40 replies
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- max kepler
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I think if they wait on Rosario, and he has the same season in 2018 that he just had in 2017, a long-term deal would cost them 40-50% more. I think if they wait another year on Kepler and he has the same season in 2018 that he had in 2017, it would be pretty similar. If Kepler were to show any improvement versus LHP and go from 19 to 25 HR, it would cost them 60-80% more next year at this time.
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Brian Dozier. Byron Buxton. Miguel Sano. Jose Berrios. Now that we’ve offered up suggested long-term contracts for those four players - at about a combined quarter of a billion dollars - today I’ll add two more players who could be in line for long-term extensions this offseason. While their deals won’t cost as much as the four above, they are also young players who have a chance to become really good and become spendy in a hurry. Today, I want to consider potential contract extensions for outfielders Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler.Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario are being lumped together today since they are both left-handed hitting outfielders. They both will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after the 2018 season. While they have different styles on the field, they have put up similar numbers. Rosario has 50 home runs in less than three years. Kepler has 36 home runs in less than two years. Rosario had his breakout season in 2017, but Kepler is one year younger. Eddie Rosario has 2.120 years of service time which left him just three days short of being a Super-2 arbitration guy this offseason. Max Kepler has 1.152 years of service time. Assuming he spends all of 2018 in the big leagues, he’s certain to be a Super-2 arbitration guy after the 2018 season. That also means that he will have four arbitration seasons. So where do we start with this discussion? Hey, I think that the ultimate comparable deal for these guys happens to be an infielder. A year ago, Jose Ramirez signed a long-term contract that will guarantee he’s in Cleveland from 2017 through 2021, and includes options for 2022 and 2023. The deal is five years and $25.5 million. In his All-Star 2017 season, he made $571,400. He’ll make $2.48 million in 2018, in what would have been his first arbitration season. That will be followed by salaries of $3.75 million and $6.25 million. The deal then will buy out his first free agent season for just $9.0 million. Cleveland will also have options for two more years, one at $11.0 million and the other at $13.0 million. Based on his 2017 season, that will prove to be a tremendous contract for Cleveland. What would he have made in arbitration coming off that year? $5 million? Maybe more? And, what would a long-term contract have cost Cleveland if they had waited until now? Probably $25-30 million just in his arbitration years, and then at least $18-20 million a year for a couple of free agent seasons. In fact, at that point, is there any true value for Cleveland not to just go year-by-year, other than keeping his rights into his free agent years? Here are some outfielders who have signed extensions in the last half-dozen years or so. Aside from Maybin, the others waited another year, until they had reached arbitration, to reach a long-term agreements. But the numbers still give some range for a potential deal for Rosario or Kepler. Here is a group of players who went year-to-year in arbitration. Nelson Cruz signed a one-year deal in his first arbitration deal. Then he signed a two-year deal after that. Finally, here is a group of outfielders who went through the arbitration process for the first time in 2017. This might give a good idea of what Rosario and Kepler could command or receive in arbitration next offseason. That’s quite a bit of information for you to consume as you consider what the Twins should offer Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario in terms of long-term security. Below is a chart with two offers that I would start with, feeling that it is equitable for both the team and the player, understanding the risk/reward for each side. Again, it is important to note the distinction between the two players in terms of arbitration, as Kepler will have a fourth arbitration season before becoming a free agent. The deal above for Eddie Rosario equates to five years and $28.5 million. The first option year has a $1 million buyout, so it could be a six year, $41 million, and with a second option (also a $1 million option) could make it work seven years and $54 million. For Kepler, the contract is worth $48 million over seven years with an option that could make it work $61 million over eight years. In both cases, the player would likely prefer the deal be for two years less so that they could be free agents at age 30, but again, that is the risk for the player in a long-term deal and obtaining ten lifetime’s worth of guaranteed money. The Twins would have to make an assumption that Rosario will continue to improve his strike zone judgment and continue to become more consistent. For a Kepler deal at this time, the Twins would need to make an assumption that he will improve his performance against southpaws and continue to add more power. So, what do you think? Should the Twins have conversations with Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, or both? What are the risk factors in your mind? What would you do as the Twins GM? That's what the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook is all about. If you haven't pre-ordered your copy yet, you can click the link below. You can even set your own price. Click here to view the article
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- max kepler
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Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario are being lumped together today since they are both left-handed hitting outfielders. They both will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after the 2018 season. While they have different styles on the field, they have put up similar numbers. Rosario has 50 home runs in less than three years. Kepler has 36 home runs in less than two years. Rosario had his breakout season in 2017, but Kepler is one year younger. Eddie Rosario has 2.120 years of service time which left him just three days short of being a Super-2 arbitration guy this offseason. Max Kepler has 1.152 years of service time. Assuming he spends all of 2018 in the big leagues, he’s certain to be a Super-2 arbitration guy after the 2018 season. That also means that he will have four arbitration seasons. So where do we start with this discussion? Hey, I think that the ultimate comparable deal for these guys happens to be an infielder. A year ago, Jose Ramirez signed a long-term contract that will guarantee he’s in Cleveland from 2017 through 2021, and includes options for 2022 and 2023. The deal is five years and $25.5 million. In his All-Star 2017 season, he made $571,400. He’ll make $2.48 million in 2018, in what would have been his first arbitration season. That will be followed by salaries of $3.75 million and $6.25 million. The deal then will buy out his first free agent season for just $9.0 million. Cleveland will also have options for two more years, one at $11.0 million and the other at $13.0 million. Based on his 2017 season, that will prove to be a tremendous contract for Cleveland. What would he have made in arbitration coming off that year? $5 million? Maybe more? And, what would a long-term contract have cost Cleveland if they had waited until now? Probably $25-30 million just in his arbitration years, and then at least $18-20 million a year for a couple of free agent seasons. In fact, at that point, is there any true value for Cleveland not to just go year-by-year, other than keeping his rights into his free agent years? Here are some outfielders who have signed extensions in the last half-dozen years or so. Aside from Maybin, the others waited another year, until they had reached arbitration, to reach a long-term agreements. But the numbers still give some range for a potential deal for Rosario or Kepler. Here is a group of players who went year-to-year in arbitration. Nelson Cruz signed a one-year deal in his first arbitration deal. Then he signed a two-year deal after that. Finally, here is a group of outfielders who went through the arbitration process for the first time in 2017. This might give a good idea of what Rosario and Kepler could command or receive in arbitration next offseason. That’s quite a bit of information for you to consume as you consider what the Twins should offer Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario in terms of long-term security. Below is a chart with two offers that I would start with, feeling that it is equitable for both the team and the player, understanding the risk/reward for each side. Again, it is important to note the distinction between the two players in terms of arbitration, as Kepler will have a fourth arbitration season before becoming a free agent. The deal above for Eddie Rosario equates to five years and $28.5 million. The first option year has a $1 million buyout, so it could be a six year, $41 million, and with a second option (also a $1 million option) could make it work seven years and $54 million. For Kepler, the contract is worth $48 million over seven years with an option that could make it work $61 million over eight years. In both cases, the player would likely prefer the deal be for two years less so that they could be free agents at age 30, but again, that is the risk for the player in a long-term deal and obtaining ten lifetime’s worth of guaranteed money. The Twins would have to make an assumption that Rosario will continue to improve his strike zone judgment and continue to become more consistent. For a Kepler deal at this time, the Twins would need to make an assumption that he will improve his performance against southpaws and continue to add more power. So, what do you think? Should the Twins have conversations with Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, or both? What are the risk factors in your mind? What would you do as the Twins GM? That's what the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook is all about. If you haven't pre-ordered your copy yet, you can click the link below. You can even set your own price.
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Baseball America had a nice story about him. He became a graduate assistant at Clemson, where his son is playing (and apparently a decent prospect). Here's the article... http://www.baseballamerica.com/columnists/now-mark-davidson/?utm_content=buffera97b6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#gLVvB8HPdXtKkPtm.97
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Regarding Slegers... he can be a 4-6 starter in the big leagues. His 3 MLB starts? 1 was fantastic. 1 was really non-good, and the third was solid, especially considering he hadn't pitched in like 3+ weeks. I do wonder if they'll hand over the backup spot to Garver or if they'll bring back Gimenez. I do think they can co-exist, with Garver being the #2 first baseman, a RH DH, and the #2/3 catcher. That can definitely work. Enlow is a long ways away, at least 3 and probably 4-5 years out. As for the AFL guys, clearly Jay has a chance to be really, really good. Wade has a chance to be a decent starting OF and almost certainly at least a 4th OF. Eades can be a long reliever/middle relief guy. Hackimer can be Hildenberger-like. I think Vasquez is underrated and he's left-handed. Miller and Paul can be utility/role player types.
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Article: KARE-11's Cory Hepola Discusses The Astros
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wiley Wallaby!! The Australian licorice is amazing! http://wileywallaby.com/- 4 replies
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Article: Can Minnesota Follow Houston's Blueprint?
Seth Stohs replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
And Keuchel wasn't even a prospect, so you just never know who is going to turn into an ace-like pitcher. Definitely isn't always an obvious choice, the hard-throwing guys. Maybe the Twins have a Keuchel-type coming. We can hope.- 54 replies
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I just think that if they're going to pay over 'typical' arbitration values for his arbitration years and only get one year of free agency, then they might as well just go year to year for now. The reason to sign an extension this early is to get good deals, below projected market value by a little bit at least, in the long run.
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Tonight in Los Angeles, the Dodgers will take on the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the 2017 World Series. It will be Clayton Kershaw versus Dallas Keuchel on the mound. There is so much talent, young talent, in this series. From 2012 to 2014, Cory Hepola was the host for Houston Astros Pre & PostGame LIVE, as well as their Emmy Award-winning magazine show called Astros Bases Loaded. The talented anchor from Perham, Minnesota, earned two Emmy nominations for Comcast Sports in Houston where he also anchored daily sportscasts. He got to know some of the Astros biggest stars as they were just entering the big leagues. Today, he shares some of his thoughts and stories from his time covering the team. In 2015, Cory Hepola of Minnesota to be an anchor on the KARE-11’s Sunrise show. He won an . This year, he made the move to weekend anchor where he teams as co-host with his wife Camille Williams. The couple has three kids, all under the age of three. During his years in Houston, Hepola had a front-row seat to some pretty bad baseball teams, and yet they were a team that had new leadership and a clear plan toward winning baseball.Perham (MN) native Cory Hepola has worked in several markets around the country. One of his first jobs was as a sports anchor at WROC-TV in Rochester, New York. It was back in the days when Trevor Plouffe and Danny Valencia played for the Red Wings. Recently, Cory was kind enough to spend some time answering our questions about the development of the Astros, who he covered from 2012-2014. Twins Daily (TD): In your three years working in sports in Houston, what was the general feeling in and around the team, the organization and the fans? Cory Hepola (CH): I was around the Astros from 2012-2014, so essentially, the worst years in franchise history. People weren't talking about them; they were completely off the radar. But, at CSN Houston, we all felt very strongly that Jeff Luhnow had a unique, forward-thinking vision. He's brilliant and we knew they'd be much better starting in 2015. He's done an excellent job of adding free agents around their core nucleus of young talent. TD: But things were kind of coming into place as some young players were getting their first opportunities. For instance, Jose Altuve was a rookie and getting playing time. What were your thoughts on him at the time, and are you surprised by what he's become? CH: Jose Altuve is one of the best stories in baseball. Tried out at an open camp in Venezuela and was cut because he was too short. Came back the next year and was signed, for cheap. I think that experience has given him perspective; he knows what it's like to be cut or to be told you're not good enough, and it drives him. In 2014 - I watched him every day in awe. He hit over .340 and stole 56 bags. Honestly, I remember Mike Stanton (my CSN analyst) saying he could get even better and I secretly rolled my eyes. No way. But, since then he's added power, raising his OPS by over 100 points. He hits everything hard and is terrific at 2B. TD: Also, Dallas Keuchel has won a Cy Young since then, but what were your thoughts on him when he first came up? CH: I interviewed Dallas Keuchel at spring training in 2014. He was coming off a couple of years where he really struggled as a starter and in the bullpen. At that point, Keuchel was just hoping to make the team. He told me he wanted that fifth starter spot, but would be fine as a long reliever. But, Brent Strom came in as the Astros new pitching coach that year and he REALLY helped Keuchel develop and control his slider, which turned him into a superstar. It just shows you don't have to throw 100 MPH, just control it. TD: I believe you noted that George Springer had just been called up too. He was the Astros player on the now-popular Sports Illustrated cover that said the Astros would be the 2017 World Series champion. What were your thoughts on Springer, who has now become an All Star too? CH: We couldn't wait for Springer to get called up in 2014. We knew he would be an instant impact player with his speed in center field & his power, but there were concerns about his strikeouts. He brought an instant energy to the clubhouse and is one of the leaders there. TD: In 2012, the Astros had the number one overall pick. At the time, they surprised teams by taking shortstop Carlos Correa out of Puerto Rico. You had the opportunity to interview him after the draft. What were your thoughts on him at the time and now that he's become a star? CH: In 2013, we would look up Correa and Buxton's stats - and compare them - every night while watching the Astros game! I met Correa at spring training in 2014 and knew he was going to be a superstar. He was 19 and already had that "IT" factor. Wasn't intimidated, wasn't cocky, but was mature and confident in who he was and where he as going. He told me: in the offseason, he went back to Puerto Rico to work with his Dad on his house. He didn't spend much of his signing bonus because - as he told me - he hadn't proven anything yet. He was the first one at the facility every day and the last one to leave. He reminded me of a young Alex Rodriguez, to be honest, because of his size and maturity at such a young age. TD: Any other memories or personnel from your time in Houston, covering the Astros? CH: It's so fun to see the Astros in the World Series because of where they were at a few years ago, although I do miss our great team at CSN Houston. I wish we could've been a part of this, watching these guys earn this incredible ride. Also, Art Howe - who was one of our analysts - is an absolute saint. Don't believe the "Moneyball" narrative. I learned so much from watching baseball with Art and he is one of the most genuine, caring people I know. TD: Do you see any comparison between those 2012-2014 Astros teams you covered and the Twins rosters since you've moved back to Minnesota? CH: Yes, I do see some similarities with how the Astros constructed their plan and the Twins. I expect to see the Twins now start to add a few helpful free agents here and there as this new front office has been able to evaluate the players in their system, who they like, who they want to keep and where. I met Derek Falvey in May and was blown away - not only by his baseball knowledge - but his leadership skills. Not many 34-year-olds understand what drives people to succeed, but I believe he does. TD: Astros-Dodgers... what's your prediction for the World Series? CH: Man, it's hard not to like the Dodgers, but I'll go with the Astros because I'd love to see the city of Houston win it all! A big Thank you to Cory Hepola for taking time out of his incredibly busy schedule to answer some of our questions about the Houston Astros as they play Game 1 of World Series tonight. Be sure to follow Cory on Twitter at @CoryHepola, and tune in to KARE-11 news at 5, 6 and 10 on Saturdays and Sundays. ---------------------------------------------------------- As an aside, I’ve known Cory and his family for probably 30 years. I happened to coach him in Little League and Babe Ruth as he was growing up in Perham. I like to tell him that he was ahead of the curve on analytics, understanding the value of getting on base. He knew the strike zone like few others at those ages. He also played a really good first base, able to scoop up almost anything. Basketball was his big sport in high school, but it’s fun for me to see him succeeding in a career that he’s been dreaming about for so long. I’ll close this article with Cory's story of meeting his kindergarten teacher that pulled at a lot of heart strings across the country. Click here to view the article
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Perham (MN) native Cory Hepola has worked in several markets around the country. One of his first jobs was as a sports anchor at WROC-TV in Rochester, New York. It was back in the days when Trevor Plouffe and Danny Valencia played for the Red Wings. Recently, Cory was kind enough to spend some time answering our questions about the development of the Astros, who he covered from 2012-2014. Twins Daily (TD): In your three years working in sports in Houston, what was the general feeling in and around the team, the organization and the fans? Cory Hepola (CH): I was around the Astros from 2012-2014, so essentially, the worst years in franchise history. People weren't talking about them; they were completely off the radar. But, at CSN Houston, we all felt very strongly that Jeff Luhnow had a unique, forward-thinking vision. He's brilliant and we knew they'd be much better starting in 2015. He's done an excellent job of adding free agents around their core nucleus of young talent. TD: But things were kind of coming into place as some young players were getting their first opportunities. For instance, Jose Altuve was a rookie and getting playing time. What were your thoughts on him at the time, and are you surprised by what he's become? CH: Jose Altuve is one of the best stories in baseball. Tried out at an open camp in Venezuela and was cut because he was too short. Came back the next year and was signed, for cheap. I think that experience has given him perspective; he knows what it's like to be cut or to be told you're not good enough, and it drives him. In 2014 - I watched him every day in awe. He hit over .340 and stole 56 bags. Honestly, I remember Mike Stanton (my CSN analyst) saying he could get even better and I secretly rolled my eyes. No way. But, since then he's added power, raising his OPS by over 100 points. He hits everything hard and is terrific at 2B. TD: Also, Dallas Keuchel has won a Cy Young since then, but what were your thoughts on him when he first came up? CH: I interviewed Dallas Keuchel at spring training in 2014. He was coming off a couple of years where he really struggled as a starter and in the bullpen. At that point, Keuchel was just hoping to make the team. He told me he wanted that fifth starter spot, but would be fine as a long reliever. But, Brent Strom came in as the Astros new pitching coach that year and he REALLY helped Keuchel develop and control his slider, which turned him into a superstar. It just shows you don't have to throw 100 MPH, just control it. TD: I believe you noted that George Springer had just been called up too. He was the Astros player on the now-popular Sports Illustrated cover that said the Astros would be the 2017 World Series champion. What were your thoughts on Springer, who has now become an All Star too? CH: We couldn't wait for Springer to get called up in 2014. We knew he would be an instant impact player with his speed in center field & his power, but there were concerns about his strikeouts. He brought an instant energy to the clubhouse and is one of the leaders there. TD: In 2012, the Astros had the number one overall pick. At the time, they surprised teams by taking shortstop Carlos Correa out of Puerto Rico. You had the opportunity to interview him after the draft. What were your thoughts on him at the time and now that he's become a star? CH: In 2013, we would look up Correa and Buxton's stats - and compare them - every night while watching the Astros game! I met Correa at spring training in 2014 and knew he was going to be a superstar. He was 19 and already had that "IT" factor. Wasn't intimidated, wasn't cocky, but was mature and confident in who he was and where he as going. He told me: in the offseason, he went back to Puerto Rico to work with his Dad on his house. He didn't spend much of his signing bonus because - as he told me - he hadn't proven anything yet. He was the first one at the facility every day and the last one to leave. He reminded me of a young Alex Rodriguez, to be honest, because of his size and maturity at such a young age. TD: Any other memories or personnel from your time in Houston, covering the Astros? CH: It's so fun to see the Astros in the World Series because of where they were at a few years ago, although I do miss our great team at CSN Houston. I wish we could've been a part of this, watching these guys earn this incredible ride. Also, Art Howe - who was one of our analysts - is an absolute saint. Don't believe the "Moneyball" narrative. I learned so much from watching baseball with Art and he is one of the most genuine, caring people I know. TD: Do you see any comparison between those 2012-2014 Astros teams you covered and the Twins rosters since you've moved back to Minnesota? CH: Yes, I do see some similarities with how the Astros constructed their plan and the Twins. I expect to see the Twins now start to add a few helpful free agents here and there as this new front office has been able to evaluate the players in their system, who they like, who they want to keep and where. I met Derek Falvey in May and was blown away - not only by his baseball knowledge - but his leadership skills. Not many 34-year-olds understand what drives people to succeed, but I believe he does. TD: Astros-Dodgers... what's your prediction for the World Series? CH: Man, it's hard not to like the Dodgers, but I'll go with the Astros because I'd love to see the city of Houston win it all! A big Thank you to Cory Hepola for taking time out of his incredibly busy schedule to answer some of our questions about the Houston Astros as they play Game 1 of World Series tonight. Be sure to follow Cory on Twitter at @CoryHepola, and tune in to KARE-11 news at 5, 6 and 10 on Saturdays and Sundays. ---------------------------------------------------------- As an aside, I’ve known Cory and his family for probably 30 years. I happened to coach him in Little League and Babe Ruth as he was growing up in Perham. I like to tell him that he was ahead of the curve on analytics, understanding the value of getting on base. He knew the strike zone like few others at those ages. He also played a really good first base, able to scoop up almost anything. Basketball was his big sport in high school, but it’s fun for me to see him succeeding in a career that he’s been dreaming about for so long. I’ll close this article with Cory's story of meeting his kindergarten teacher that pulled at a lot of heart strings across the country. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdBT5t_azLs
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First we dove into what an extension for Brian Dozier. He’s had his first long-term contract, and now he’s one year from free agency. Last week, we contemplated long-term deals for the Twins two mammoth stars, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. They are one year away from arbitration, so now could be the time to get each extended. Today, I’m going to write about another type of potential long-term contract. This one is about a pitcher instead of a hitter, and this one is for a guy who has only a bit over one year of service time, meaning he won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 season. Today, I’ll try to come up with a logical, fair long-term deal for RHP Jose Berrios.The case for Jose Berrios is similar to that of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. The hope of the last four years has been in Buxton and Sano, but also in Berrios because obviously, pitching wins. As much as we need to continue to see big offense, to get to where they all (and we all) want to get, they’ll need pitching. Berrios had a rough debut season in 2016, but when he came up in 2017, he pitched very well, at least for the first two months. But he was so much better and we really started to see what he could become. It’s obviously much more difficult to find long-term contracts for players such as Jose Berrios. He’s two seasons from arbitration and five years from free agency. There just aren’t a lot of examples of this for pitchers. In fact, of American League pitchers, I found just two such examples, Chris Archer and Martin Perez. Both came up, like Berrios, as top prospects. Archer pretty much immediately became an ace-level pitcher in Tampa. Perez was with the Rangers (with Thad Levine involved) and was exciting, but he was hurt some and struggled some. But he has become pretty good. They each had two pre-arbitration seasons, three arbitration season and then there were options to cover some free agent seasons. There are several more players who signed with one season before free agency. That’s obviously more ‘normal.’ Part of the reason for signing players early is for some cost certainty. But also, for teams to provide life-long financial security to the players, the players need to accept the risk that they could be underpaid in arbitration years or free agent years. It’s a trade off. Here is a group of players who chose to go year-to-year with arbitration. Because of the risk, these numbers should be the top of the spectrum, and yet they vary a bit. And, of course, we also have to account for the inflation in the game the last several years. To try to help with that, here is a listing of some pitchers who went through the arbitration cycle for the first time in 2017. Again, I only went through the American League. This is already a bunch, and frankly, you don’t want to go through a list double this size, but it gives us a good range for what the Twins could expect to have to pay. So, with all that as background, here is the contract that I would offer to Jose Berrios this offseason, at least as a starting point for discussion. This works out to a seven year, $46 million contract, and with the option, it would be eight years, $60 million. (I put a $2 million buyout to the option in there.) Seven years and $46 million sure doesn’t sound like a lot, does it? And yet, $46 million for a guy with just over a year of experience is a lot of money. Consider that four years ago around this time, Chris Archer signed a contract for six years and $25.5 million with two option years. That's $20 million additional dollars four years later. If I were to guess, I think that the Berrios side would want it to be a year or two shorter so that he can become a free agent at 29 or 30. In that context, does this deal seem to make some sense for the Twins? For Berrios’s camp? What do you think? Click here to view the article
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The case for Jose Berrios is similar to that of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. The hope of the last four years has been in Buxton and Sano, but also in Berrios because obviously, pitching wins. As much as we need to continue to see big offense, to get to where they all (and we all) want to get, they’ll need pitching. Berrios had a rough debut season in 2016, but when he came up in 2017, he pitched very well, at least for the first two months. But he was so much better and we really started to see what he could become. It’s obviously much more difficult to find long-term contracts for players such as Jose Berrios. He’s two seasons from arbitration and five years from free agency. There just aren’t a lot of examples of this for pitchers. In fact, of American League pitchers, I found just two such examples, Chris Archer and Martin Perez. Both came up, like Berrios, as top prospects. Archer pretty much immediately became an ace-level pitcher in Tampa. Perez was with the Rangers (with Thad Levine involved) and was exciting, but he was hurt some and struggled some. But he has become pretty good. They each had two pre-arbitration seasons, three arbitration season and then there were options to cover some free agent seasons. There are several more players who signed with one season before free agency. That’s obviously more ‘normal.’ Part of the reason for signing players early is for some cost certainty. But also, for teams to provide life-long financial security to the players, the players need to accept the risk that they could be underpaid in arbitration years or free agent years. It’s a trade off. Here is a group of players who chose to go year-to-year with arbitration. Because of the risk, these numbers should be the top of the spectrum, and yet they vary a bit. And, of course, we also have to account for the inflation in the game the last several years. To try to help with that, here is a listing of some pitchers who went through the arbitration cycle for the first time in 2017. Again, I only went through the American League. This is already a bunch, and frankly, you don’t want to go through a list double this size, but it gives us a good range for what the Twins could expect to have to pay. So, with all that as background, here is the contract that I would offer to Jose Berrios this offseason, at least as a starting point for discussion. This works out to a seven year, $46 million contract, and with the option, it would be eight years, $60 million. (I put a $2 million buyout to the option in there.) Seven years and $46 million sure doesn’t sound like a lot, does it? And yet, $46 million for a guy with just over a year of experience is a lot of money. Consider that four years ago around this time, Chris Archer signed a contract for six years and $25.5 million with two option years. That's $20 million additional dollars four years later. If I were to guess, I think that the Berrios side would want it to be a year or two shorter so that he can become a free agent at 29 or 30. In that context, does this deal seem to make some sense for the Twins? For Berrios’s camp? What do you think?
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Eight Predictions For Season 8 Of The Walking Dead
Seth Stohs posted a blog entry in Seth Stohs' Blog
Alright, as many of you know - and maybe many of you are - I'm a huge binge TV watchers. I've got access to Amazon, Hulu and Netflix and watch so many shows. I'll watch almost anything. I've watched shows like Highway to Heaven, and I've watched shows like American Horror Story. I'm currently watching old episodes of 7th Heaven, and I'm very excited for Season 8 of The Walking Dead on AMC! I was late to the show, to be honest. Season 7 was the first season that I watched on AMC as it was happening. I binge-watched the first six seasons and completed them just before Season 7 began. I tell you, needing to wait a week for new episodes was incredibly difficult. Waiting a whole week between episodes? Waiting for months between seasons? On Sunday night at 8:00 central time, Season 8 of The Walking Dead will debut. Of not, it is also the show's 100th episode. In anticipation of the show tonight, I thought I would make eight predictions for Season 8. It should be noted that I haven't read any of the comics, so I don't know what follows that storyline or not. And, until typing this sentence, I never though to google The Walking Dead either. So, these are really just my top-of-head predictions for what should be an interesting season. When we last watched an episode, King Ezekiel, Rick and Maggie were standing before the people from The Kingdom, Alexandria and the Hilltop. They were inspiring their people, sending them off to war against Negan and his many, many followers. So, let's get started: Prediction #1 - Maggie Takes Over I don't know if she'll necessarily take over for Rick as the overall leader, but I think personally that she has shown to be a better, smarter leader. Rick has had his ups and downs in the leadership category over the years, and Maggie's got the intelligence and charisma to lead. Now, she is pregnant, so I don't know how that storyline will work this season. It certainly didn't set her back during the fight with Negan in the season 7 finale, but it may come into play. Prediction #2 - Death In Episode 100 (or Season 8, Episode 1) In the premier episode of Season 7, we saw the brutal deaths of Glen and Abraham at the hands of Negan (with the help of Lucille). I would anticipate that at least one or two of the main characters will be killed off. I don't think it'll be anyone like Rick, Carol, Daryl or Carl, but that next tier of character could be affected. Morgan finally got angry and decided that killing was OK, so he might be one to watch. Maybe someone like Tara or Rosita could also be lost. Shiva was one of the big heroes of the final Season 7 episode, so the hero tiger could play a factor in this as well. Prediction #3 - Carl & Enid It has to happen at some point, right? Carl and Enid have been kind of this cutesy couple of kids who might like each other, but kind of kept their distance, but also walked off in the woods together, and even ended up roller blading together. So, it's got to happen, right? Prediction #4 - A Relationship for Jesus We first saw Jesus in a semi light-hearted episode with Daryl and Rick in which a huge truck loaded with food ended up lost in a lake. At that point, I kind of figured his character would become prevalent. Jesus was a nice character in Season 7, but I would think it would be a bigger role in Season 8. In Season 7, he came out to Maggie as gay, which I'm sure sent shock waves to many, and likely upset some as well. I would guess that Jesus will have some sort of relationship this season. Many wonder if that will be with Daryl, who has pretty much only had platonic inclinations through the first seven seasons. Who knows? Maybe the writers will really go for the upset and hook up Jesus with Father Gabriel. Probably not. Prediction #5 - The Plight of Dwight So, I think that Dwight was being truthful in saying he wanted to help Rick's group against Negan, but in the final fight scene, he was still working with Negan. I am very curious how this plays out, again because I think he will want to be on the side of the good guys. In fact, I could see him being the one to take down Negan. But how will he integrate himself into Alexandria? That could be an episode or two all its own. Another question might be whether or not his wife will show up, maybe with beer and pretzels? Prediction #6 - Eugene will survive, somehow Eugene lied about knowing how to save the world. He is smart, and he's all about self-preservation. That's why he's all about the "I am Negan" right now. He feels comfortable right now, and he probably feels he is in a power position, and he likes it. But if we assume that "Negan" goes down, what will Eugene do to preserve himself again? Will he find a way back into the confidence of Rick and his group? My guess is Yes... Prediction #7 - Rick and Michonne Break Up I don't know. I just never thought they really made sense in the first place. As I watched, bringing them together seemed really forced. Plus, a break up is something that really hasn't happened on the show so far. I mean, there was Carol and her husband's issues early in Season 1, but those were resolved quickly. I mean, the Shane, Rick, Lori situation was kind of fun in Season 1 too, but a break up could create all sorts of intrigue. Prediction #8 - A Few Mini-Predictions/Questions OK, eight predictions for Season 8 just made sense, but I'm going to cheat a bit and throw a few quick predictions at you in #8 for your thoughts. The relationship between Daryl and Carol is interesting to me. They've had a very strong connection, strictly platonic to this point, throughout the show. If they don't have Daryl hook up with Jesus, could he and Carol come together? And, who will be the nemesis of the show is Negan isn't in power? Will Jadis take over as the real bad guy, or will there be another group? Gregory will also obviously be killed, or at least be taken out of the equation. Will it be fighting for the good side, or will it be at the hands of someone from the good side? Oceanside will have to come into play somehow, right? I still think that Tara and Cyndie will wind up together as a couple, so how will they all come together? So, there you have it, Eight-ish predictions for Season 8 of The Walking Dead. Please feel free to leave your comments on any of my predictions or predictions of your own in the Comments. And then after the episode, I may be back with additional thoughts, maybe even more blogs... at least if people are interested.-
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Before spring training, Twins Daily caught up with right-handed reliever Tom Hackimer for a Get to Know Him Q&A. He was preparing for the 2017 season, his first full-season as a professional. Hackimer had been the Twins 4th round pick after playing at St. John’s University in New York. The 23-year-old is currently in Arizona representing the Twins in the Arizona Fall League where he has given up one run over four innings.Recently Twins Daily chatted with Hackimer to get caught up on his season and his Arizona Fall League goals. Tom Hackimer began this season with 16 appearances in Cedar Rapids. He went 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP. He walked just 1.1 per nine while striking out 10.5 per nine in 24.0 innings. He was promoted to Ft. Myers where he worked 37.1 innings over 27 games. He posted an ERA of 1.93 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. His walk rate jumped to 4.5 per nine while his strikeout rate stayed high at 10.4 per nine innings. Hackimer saw success at both levels, but he also saw that there were noticeable differences between the Midwest League and the Florida State League. Hackimer said, “The hitters were definitely better. I noticed I really needed to mix offspeed in there a little more. In Cedar Rapids, I was throwing a lot of fastballs.” He continued, explaining that it was a lesson learned quickly, “My first outing when I got up to High-A, I was doing the same thing and it didn’t go quite as well. So I realized that I had to mix it up a little more and really make sure, especially for me as a sidearmer, I had to make sure I could get inside on lefties so they couldn’t just dive out over the plate.” Hackimer played for the Kernels in the first half when they earned their playoff berth. He was also a big part of the Miracle second-half run that led them to the playoffs. Hackimer acknowledged, “It’s always a lot more fun when you’re winning, and a lot more exciting that way.” But a lot of players are amazed by what their first full season of minor league ball can do to their bodies. One Twins player told me recently that he’s learned over time when to start working out, throwing, or even just showing up to spring training to help him get through a season. That took the player several years to figure out. For Hackimer, he was happy with how his first season went physically. “It actually held up better than I thought I would. Toward the end, I’d get a lot more tired, but I learned how to get into a good routine and kind of pare down some of the stuff that I do throughout the season. A little bit of a heavier workload toward the begin and then I lessened what I do in the middle and at the end to make sure that I got to the finish line strong.” And just as his season was coming to an end, Hackimer found out that his season was not complete, at least not quite yet. Late in the season, he found out that he would get the opportunity to represent the Twins in the Arizona Fall League. When invited, there was no question in his mind of whether or not he’d accept the invitation. “It was definitely a for sure thing for me. The way I found out. We were in Clearwater when I was with Ft. Myers. We had just come in from batting practice. Everyone was standing around the pregame spread. Doug Mientkiewicz came over and said, ‘Hey, come into my office and talk to me when you’re done eating.’” Hackimer continued, “I was a little excited, nervous, didn’t know what was happening. But I went in there, and he was like, ‘You got picked to go to the Fall League. Congratulations!’ It was nice. It was exciting.” There are many reasons to send players to the Fall League. Sometimes it is to make up for innings or at bats lost. Sometimes it is to push a player a bit and give them the opportunity to compete against some really good competition. Individually, they all have some goals that they want to accomplish in the season’s seven weeks. Hackimer noted, “One of my goals was to really work on mixing pitches better. I sort of get into a rut of doing that same thing. I started to develop a changeup, but I haven’t been using it a lot. That was one of the things that in spring training, I talked to Trevor Hildenberger about, and that’s obviously his bread and butter, his changeup. So I really wanted to take this opportunity to try to develop that and see where it’s at as a pitch.” Earlier this week, Hackimer worked an inning in a Fall League game. “These guys can hit. I got a rude awakening yesterday (Tuesday). I went out and gave up a few quick hits on pitches that normally I think I would have been OK with throwing, but they were either in the wrong spot or in the wrong sequence. So that’s stuff I have to go back and look at.” In that outing, Hackimer limited the damage to just one run in the inning. “Double play ball. Pitcher’s best friend.” Hackimer had a two-inning outing on Thursday in which he was perfect. As you’ve seen, Tom Hackimer throws from the side. In a lot of ways, he is similar to Twins rookie Trevor Hildenberger. They were both drafted as four-year college relievers. Their first full seasons were spent between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers, and they each played in the Arizona Fall League that same season. Last fall, they had their first interaction. “Back when I was in Instructs last year, I had a ten minute conversation with him about his change up. He’s been very kind, very helpful the whole way through.” This spring, the two worked and talked some together. According to Hackimer, “I threw with him once in spring training. I always made sure when he was throwing a bullpen that I hung around to watch it if I could.” When the Twins season ended and they were preparing to play the Yankees in New York, Hackimer received an unexpected message. “One of the things that really impressed me, right before the Wild Card game, maybe a day before, Trevor actually reached out to me to wish me well in the Fall League.” When the Fall League is over, Hackimer will head home and get some rest. No big plans for the offseason. “I didn’t really have any plans, but the potential to come here knocked out any of the plans I might have had. But it’s for a good reason, so I can live with that.” When he was drafted, many thought that Hackimer could be a fast-mover. He could start the 2018 season in AA Chattanooga and get up to AAA Rochester. Who knows, maybe even a late-season call up is possible. Click here to view the article
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Recently Twins Daily chatted with Hackimer to get caught up on his season and his Arizona Fall League goals. Tom Hackimer began this season with 16 appearances in Cedar Rapids. He went 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP. He walked just 1.1 per nine while striking out 10.5 per nine in 24.0 innings. He was promoted to Ft. Myers where he worked 37.1 innings over 27 games. He posted an ERA of 1.93 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. His walk rate jumped to 4.5 per nine while his strikeout rate stayed high at 10.4 per nine innings. Hackimer saw success at both levels, but he also saw that there were noticeable differences between the Midwest League and the Florida State League. Hackimer said, “The hitters were definitely better. I noticed I really needed to mix offspeed in there a little more. In Cedar Rapids, I was throwing a lot of fastballs.” He continued, explaining that it was a lesson learned quickly, “My first outing when I got up to High-A, I was doing the same thing and it didn’t go quite as well. So I realized that I had to mix it up a little more and really make sure, especially for me as a sidearmer, I had to make sure I could get inside on lefties so they couldn’t just dive out over the plate.” Hackimer played for the Kernels in the first half when they earned their playoff berth. He was also a big part of the Miracle second-half run that led them to the playoffs. Hackimer acknowledged, “It’s always a lot more fun when you’re winning, and a lot more exciting that way.” But a lot of players are amazed by what their first full season of minor league ball can do to their bodies. One Twins player told me recently that he’s learned over time when to start working out, throwing, or even just showing up to spring training to help him get through a season. That took the player several years to figure out. For Hackimer, he was happy with how his first season went physically. “It actually held up better than I thought I would. Toward the end, I’d get a lot more tired, but I learned how to get into a good routine and kind of pare down some of the stuff that I do throughout the season. A little bit of a heavier workload toward the begin and then I lessened what I do in the middle and at the end to make sure that I got to the finish line strong.” And just as his season was coming to an end, Hackimer found out that his season was not complete, at least not quite yet. Late in the season, he found out that he would get the opportunity to represent the Twins in the Arizona Fall League. When invited, there was no question in his mind of whether or not he’d accept the invitation. “It was definitely a for sure thing for me. The way I found out. We were in Clearwater when I was with Ft. Myers. We had just come in from batting practice. Everyone was standing around the pregame spread. Doug Mientkiewicz came over and said, ‘Hey, come into my office and talk to me when you’re done eating.’” Hackimer continued, “I was a little excited, nervous, didn’t know what was happening. But I went in there, and he was like, ‘You got picked to go to the Fall League. Congratulations!’ It was nice. It was exciting.” There are many reasons to send players to the Fall League. Sometimes it is to make up for innings or at bats lost. Sometimes it is to push a player a bit and give them the opportunity to compete against some really good competition. Individually, they all have some goals that they want to accomplish in the season’s seven weeks. Hackimer noted, “One of my goals was to really work on mixing pitches better. I sort of get into a rut of doing that same thing. I started to develop a changeup, but I haven’t been using it a lot. That was one of the things that in spring training, I talked to Trevor Hildenberger about, and that’s obviously his bread and butter, his changeup. So I really wanted to take this opportunity to try to develop that and see where it’s at as a pitch.” Earlier this week, Hackimer worked an inning in a Fall League game. “These guys can hit. I got a rude awakening yesterday (Tuesday). I went out and gave up a few quick hits on pitches that normally I think I would have been OK with throwing, but they were either in the wrong spot or in the wrong sequence. So that’s stuff I have to go back and look at.” In that outing, Hackimer limited the damage to just one run in the inning. “Double play ball. Pitcher’s best friend.” Hackimer had a two-inning outing on Thursday in which he was perfect. As you’ve seen, Tom Hackimer throws from the side. In a lot of ways, he is similar to Twins rookie Trevor Hildenberger. They were both drafted as four-year college relievers. Their first full seasons were spent between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers, and they each played in the Arizona Fall League that same season. Last fall, they had their first interaction. “Back when I was in Instructs last year, I had a ten minute conversation with him about his change up. He’s been very kind, very helpful the whole way through.” This spring, the two worked and talked some together. According to Hackimer, “I threw with him once in spring training. I always made sure when he was throwing a bullpen that I hung around to watch it if I could.” When the Twins season ended and they were preparing to play the Yankees in New York, Hackimer received an unexpected message. “One of the things that really impressed me, right before the Wild Card game, maybe a day before, Trevor actually reached out to me to wish me well in the Fall League.” When the Fall League is over, Hackimer will head home and get some rest. No big plans for the offseason. “I didn’t really have any plans, but the potential to come here knocked out any of the plans I might have had. But it’s for a good reason, so I can live with that.” When he was drafted, many thought that Hackimer could be a fast-mover. He could start the 2018 season in AA Chattanooga and get up to AAA Rochester. Who knows, maybe even a late-season call up is possible.

